2024 Oscars Predictions

Best Picture:

Nominees:

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro 

Oppenheimer 

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

For the first time* since Spotlight in 2015, the initial Best Picture favorite is going to take home the gold. Christopher Nolan's biopic has been the talk of Hollywood since it was released in late July and there's not a single prayer that any movie will be able to get in its way at this point. 

*Excluding 2020/21 where Nomadland was the clear favorite among the thin field of films that were released during the height of COVID.    

Best Director:

Nominees:

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest 

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer 

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan

He's made the most celebrated superhero trilogy of all time, pioneered new blockbuster filmmaking techniques with his extensive use of IMAX cameras and become a director whose name alone inspires people to head out to movie theaters at a time where the general public doesn't tend to give a shit about who's behind the camera. About the only thing missing from Christopher Nolan's incredible resume is an Academy Award and that will change come Sunday night. The British auteur has never made a film quite like Oppenheimer, so there's no better time to cement his legacy by bestowing the highest honor in the film industry upon him.    

Best Actor:

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy

For a moment, it looked like Paul Giamatti had a shot at pulling off the tide. That dream died a swift death once Murphy earned the Best Actor prizes at the BAFTA's and SAG Awards. The Irish character actor has been one of the most unsung talents in the business for the past 25 years and his terrific work in a rare leading role in an American film is just the ticket he needed to secure his 1st Oscar win.     

Best Actress:

Nominees:

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hueller, Anatomy of a Fall,

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Lily Gladstone

And here it is, the only truly contested major award of the evening. Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are neck-and-neck heading into Oscar night as they've effectively split all of the major precursor awards and it's truly a coin flip as to who will walk away with the gold statue. Since Stone already has an Oscar to her name and lost the SAG Award (over the previous 5 years, Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Viola Davis for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Glenn Close for The Wife and Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place are the only non-ensemble SAG winners that didn't go on to take home the Oscar), I'm going to go with Gladstone here. Her performance is the beating heart of Killer of the Flower Moon and in terms of narratives, there isn't a more inspiring one in this award cycle than a Native American woman who nearly quit the industry on account of how little work she was getting going onto shine brightly in a Martin Scorsese movie where the other top-billed actors are Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro.         

Best Supporting Actor:

Nominees:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr.

Marvel got Downey Jr. out of actor's jail after his very public struggle with addiction got him effectively blacklisted from Hollywood in the early 2000's and now, his return to "serious cinema" is going to get him the Oscar that narrowly alluded him for Chaplin 32 years ago. Personally, I believe RDJ is this year's answer to Jamie Lee Curtis where the voters are rewarding the person over the performance, but alas, he's a lock to win.     

Best Supporting Actress:

Nominees:

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

America Ferrera, Barbie

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Predicted Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Yet another stone-cold lock. Randolph easily gave the most acclaimed performance of this group and she's one of the most charismatic, engaging speakers to step onto an awards show stage in recent years. You just can't say no to the rare great performance/great acceptance speech combo!      

Other Awards:

Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction 

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 

Best Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol 

Best International Feature: The Zone of Interest 

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer 

Best Original Score: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song: "What Was I Made For?", Barbie

Best Costume Design: Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro

Best Production Design: Poor Things

Best Sound: Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects: The Creator 

Best Animated Short Film: War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Best Documentary Short Film: The ABCs of Book Burning 

Best Live Action Short Film: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar 

What My Ballot Would Look Like If I Were an Academy Voter:

Best Picture: Poor Things

Best Director: Yorgos Lanthimos

Best Actor: Paul Giamatti 

Best Actress: Emma Stone

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro

Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Best Original Screenplay: Past Lives

Best Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 

Best Documentary Feature: Abstain

Best International Feature: Society of the Snow 

Best Cinematography: Poor Things

Best Film Editing: The Holdovers

Best Original Score: Poor Things

Best Original Song: "I'm Just Ken", Barbie

Best Costume Design: Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro 

Best Production Design: Barbie

Best Sound: Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

Best Visual Effects: The Creator

Best Animated Short Film: Abstain

Best Documentary Short Film: Abstain

Best Live Action Short Film: Abstain

My Picks for the Biggest Snub in Each Category:

Best Picture: All of Us Strangers

Best Director: Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers 

Best Actor: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Best Actress: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Supporting Actor: Charles Melton, May December 

Best Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore, May December 

Best Original Screenplay: A Thousand and One

Best Adapted Screenplay: All of Us Strangers

Best Animated Feature: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Best Documentary Feature: Abstain

Best International Feature: Abstain

Best Cinematography: Saltburn

Best Film Editing: The Killer

Best Original Score: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 

Best Original Song: "Dance the Night", Barbie

Best Costume Design: Wonka

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3

Best Production Design: Saltburn 

Best Sound: John Wick: Chapter 4 

Best Visual Effects: Rebel Moon-Part One: A Child of Fire

Best Animated Short Film: Abstain

Best Documentary Short Film: Abstain

Best Live Action Short Film: Abstain