Buffalo Bills:
2023 Record: 11-6 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (8th season)
Notable Additions: WR Curtis Samuel, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling, S Mike Edwards
Notable Departures: WR Stefon Diggs, S Jordan Poyer, CB Tre'Davious White
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Joe Brady Sticking Around
Buffalo's firing of OC Ken Dorsey in mid-November last season was a true shock that kind of reeked of desperation. The Bills were 5-5 at the time and had dropped 4 out of 6 games, but offense really wasn't the problem as the defense had allowed 25.5 points in those 4 losses to teams with mediocre-to-bad-offenses (Patriots, Broncos, Jaguars, Bengals). This move ended up being exactly the jolt the Bills needed to get out of their rut as they went 6-1 after Dorsey's firing and the offense ended up finishing in the top 10 in the league in every important category (6th in scoring offense, 8th in passing YDS, 7th in rushing YDS, 4th in redzone TD%).
The man responsible for this shift was Joe Brady-who was brought to Buffalo to serve as QB coach prior to the 2022 season after Brian Daboll left to become the Giants head coach. Brady's philosophy was simple: Get the running backs more involved and diversify the passing attack to open things up for Josh Allen to really unleash his dynamic skill set. It worked beautifully as Allen played some of the better football of his career (1,984 scrimmage YDS, 18 total TD's, 60.2 CMP%, 7 INT's-only of 1 which was a multi-INT game) and James Cook emerged as a legit, dual-threat RB1 (507 rushing YDS, 223 receiving YDS and 5 total TD's on 137 touches) during this time.
Given how the Bills looked down the stretch along with his young "QB Guru" reputation that dates back to his time at LSU with Joe Burrow in 2019, Brady received some head coaching interest and interviewed for the gigs with the Falcons and Chargers. He ended up getting passed over for both jobs and instead got promoted to full-time OC in Buffalo. This is a huge gain for the Bills as they enter a season with the most uncertainty that's surrounded them since at least 2019 and need all the continuity they can possibly find if they hope to remain among the AFC's upper echelon.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Insane Roster Turnover They Underwent in the Offseason
The cost of paying guys like Allen, Von Miller and Dion Dawkins paired with concerns about age and the disappointment of another playoff exit at the hand of the Chiefs caused the Bills to cut bait with a lot of players this offseason. Longtime key contributors including Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse and Dane Jackson all got booted out of Western New York in the spring. While cutting ties with Diggs was kind of inevitable (and possibly even beneficial) given his public criticisms of the front office and Allen over the past couple of seasons, the rest of these losses are huge for a team that's benefited greatly from having such a deep, established core.
What makes all these roster changes particularly concerning is the plans Brandon Beane has drawn up for replacing them. They should be alright at corner as White was oft-injured, Jackson was primarily a sub-package player and Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson have all proven they can play at a pretty high level in this league, but aside from that, it's kind of a scary free-for-all situation.
At center, they have Connor McGovern sliding over from guard. McGovern hasn't played center at all in the pros and his 1st season away from the Cowboys OL haven last year didn't go so great as he was below average at best in every area besides committing penalties (only 4 on 1,178 snaps).
Receiver poses a daunting set of challenges as Khalil Shakir is the only WR on the roster that has previously caught a pass from Allen and while he's been productive in spot duty, he has some limitations due to his size (6'0, 190lbs). The battle to lineup alongside Shakir should be interesting as Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Keon Coleman appear set to battle for the other starting gigs. Samuel has had the most success by far as a pro and boasts a versatility that Brady could do some unique things with but is burdened by a pretty extensive injury history and saw the explosiveness that made him an impact player during his time with the Panthers diminish a bit over the past 3 seasons with the Commanders. Hollins came crashing back to earth in a big way with the Falcons last season after a solid 2022 campaign with the Raiders and will be looking to prove that what he did in Vegas wasn't a fluke. MVS appears set to be the Gabe Davis deep bomb target replacement, which should be a great time for Bills fans as they wonder if he'll make an incredible catch or a hilarious drop on every catchable target. Coleman is the biggest wild card as he displayed impressive body control, physicality and contested catch ability at Florida State last season, but also consistently struggled to separate-which could kneecap his ability to contribute at the pro level.
Safety just might be the biggest problem of the bunch as they lost both starters and as the Bengals proved last season, that can be enough to do some substantial damage to the entire secondary. Taylor Rapp started plenty of games with the Rams, but was flat-out awful as the Bills third safety last year (career-low 2 passes defensed, 5.7 missed tackles, 56.4 overall PFF grade), free agent pickup Mike Edwards is somebody who has only thrived when used as a third option in good secondaries with the Buccaneers and Chiefs and rookie Cole Bishop was a polarizing prospect in this year's thin safety class whose aggression in pursuing the ball is viewed as his biggest strength as well as his biggest weakness.
A lot is going to have to go right for McDermott and his staff to fill all these gaps well, but there are only a handful of teams in the league that are better suited to pull off this difficult task than the Bills.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Passing Game Productivity
As I outlined above, receiver is a big question mark given all the turnover at the position and Shakir not really getting a large workload in either of his first 2 seasons in the league. The good news for the Bills is that they do have a pair of assets that are familiar with Allen in Dalton Kincaid and Cook that could help kickstart their new look passing attack. Kincaid started to carve out a significant role in this offense from late October through the playoffs-registering 5+ targets and 3+ receptions in 11 of the final 13 games the Bills played last year while Cook finished last season with 445 YDS on just 44 receptions. There's enough positive data out there to believe that both of these guys could really pop with a bigger workload, and it would be really surprising if they weren't at the top of the target totem pole every time they're on the field.
Of course, it's going to take contributions from beyond Kincaid and Cook for this offense to remain one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the league. Shakir is the main guy to watch as he racked up 611 YDS on 39 catches last year and caught a whopping 86.7% of the targets that came his way. He's a tough, physical receiver with underrated YAC and route-running ability, so it wouldn't be surprising at all if he had a breakout year.
Samuel is the other guy that will have real expectations to contribute right away. His ability to lineup in the backfield could make him a serious weapon in the screen game and Brady might even be able to draw up some creative plays that can get him open downfield.
Ultimately, who's catching the passes doesn't matter as much as the passes actually getting caught. Allen is far too dynamic of a player for this to be forced turn into a run-first team on account of shaky receiver play and the emergence of reliable pass-catchers is the only thing that can stop that from happening.
Bottom Line:
While a regression seems likely considering all of the talent they lost on both sides of the ball, Josh Allen and their defense should be strong enough to keep them in the playoff mix.
Miami Dolphins
2023 Record: 11-6 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
Notable Additions: S Jordan Poyer, CB Kendall Fuller, DE Calias Campbell
Notable Departures: DT Christian Wilkins, G Robert Hunt, OLB Andrew Van Ginkel
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Their Offensive Dynamism Remaining Intact
As many of the top AFC teams deal with key losses to their offense heading into the 2024, the Dolphins were able to mostly stand pat. Jaylen Waddle signed an extension to keep him with the team through the 2028 season. Raheem Mostert re-upped for another 2 seasons after his ridiculous 2023 campaign. De'Von Achane is fully healthy coming into camp. Tyreek Hill will look to finally break the single season receiving in his age 30 season after clearing 1,700 YDS in each of his first 2 seasons in Miami. And the cherry on top, Odell Beckham Jr. signed in free agency with the hopes that playing in Mike McDaniel's system will get him back to the level of productivity he showed in 2021 during his brief stint with the Rams. Competing with the sheer speed, home run-hitting ability and versatility of this offense is so difficult, and that deep arsenal of offensive talent is what makes the Dolphins one of the scariest teams in the league.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Switching the Defensive Scheme/System for a 3rd Straight Year
Despite putting together back-to-back winning seasons and playoff appearances, defense has continued to be a huge problem for the Dolphins. Brian Flores holdover Josh Boyer struggled to repeat the success they had under his former boss as they finished 24th in the league in scoring defense back in 2022. Things surprisingly didn't get much better under noted virtuoso DC Vic Fangio as the team struggled to pick up his complex system and finished 22nd in scoring defense last season. What has made these struggles over the past 2 seasons even more confusing is that this unit isn't without talent. Christian Wilkins, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jalen Ramsey, Jevon Holland, Bradley Chubb, Jalean Phillips and Kader Kohou are all really gifted players that have played well during at least one of these seasons, but their strong play didn't elevate the broader unit much for whatever reason.
Fangio and the Dolphins agreed to mutually part ways after the season, which means the Dolphins are now on their 3rd DC during McDaniel's 3 seasons in charge. Just like with Fangio in 2023, the Dolphins were able to land arguably the hottest name on the market in Anthony Weaver. Weaver's stock skyrocketed following the 2023 season where the Ravens fielded one of the best defenses in recent NFL history and his work as the defensive line coach was a key part of that dominance as he helped Justin Madubuike put together a career year that earned him a spot on the All-Pro team and Michael Pierce return to form following a rough stretch from 2020-22 defined by injuries, erratic play and sitting out on account of COVID.
There are however a few things that put a bit of a dark cloud around Weaver's hiring. For starters, Mike Macdonald was the primary architect of the Ravens defensive dominance and that's why he landed a head coaching gig with the Seahawks while Weaver was only able to land a DC gig elsewhere. Then, there's the kind of buried fact that he has previous DC experience with the Texans in 2020, where he oversaw a bottom 6 overall defense that ranked dead last against the run, allowed a whopping 42 total TD's and only netted 3 INT's in 16 games. Lastly, there's the tough blow of losing Wilkins, Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker and DeShon Elliott in free agency.
The biggest thing for Weaver and these players is getting them ready to go. Many of these guys are learning a new system for the 3rd straight year and as talented as this returning bunch is, that's a ton to ask of anyone. Maybe having some more seasoned vets in Jordan Poyer, Kendall Fuller, Calias Campbell and Anthony Walker Jr. entering the fold will help ease the transition, but there are going to be a lot of eyeballs on Weaver and if he fails to crack the code with this bunch, he probably won't get a 3rd shot to be a DC in the NFL.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Not Shitting Out in January (Again)
What makes the Dolphins so scary during the regular season is what has made them an easy out in January: They're a finesse team that requires perfect conditions for their speed-and-athleticism-driven game to thrive. Take them out of the comfy confines of South Florida or a domed stadium, get physical with them and/or apply some pressure to Tua Tagovailoa and they unravel faster than dollar store toilet paper. How do they change their DNA? Beats me, especially since their offense is basically the same save for Aaron Brewer stepping in for Robert Hunt on the o-line and a new defensive scheme can't really fix the lack of these core attributes, but they're going to have to try and do something different. Maybe McDaniel can start running Oklahoma drills at camp or do insane running drills in the brutal heat? Regardless of what it is, something needs to change in the way they do business in big games, or this team will be heading home with their heads hung in shame for a 3rd straight January.
Bottom Line:
Barring injuries or unexpected mass regression from Tua, they should once again win a lot of games in the regular season. The playoffs are a different story entirely as I remain unconvinced that they have the resolve and grit to shine on that stage.
New England Patriots
2023 Record: 4-13 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, T Chukwuma Okorafor
Notable Departures: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, T Trent Brown
Biggest Reason for Excitement: A True New Chapter is Beginning
2023 was such a disaster for the Patriots that it led to the seemingly unthinkable happening: Bill Belichick getting shitcanned. What Belichick meant to this organization for the past 20+ years made this a difficult decision for Robert Kraft, but it was ultimately the right one. Belichick's approach to coaching and roster-building doesn't fit the mold of the modern NFL, which is further evidenced by his 29-38 record over his final 4 Brady-less seasons in New England.
Does this mean Jerod Mayo and Eliot Wolf are going to right the ship? Not at all, but they are bringing some a much-needed new ideology to the table and it's already shown in their approach to this offseason. They drafted an athletic, big-armed QB in Drake Maye at #3 overall, re-signed or extended nearly all of their key young pieces (Christian Barmore, Kyle Dugger, Mike Onwenu, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings) that were eligible for new contracts and even made a real offer to the most expensive WR on the free agent market (Calvin Ridley) and inquired about Brandon Aiyuk's availability in a trade before the draft in April! The pilgrim hats have officially been thrown away at Patriot Place, which should excite Pats fans that have been burdened by Belichick's late era ineffectiveness for far too long.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Alex Van Pelt's Inexperience as a Playcaller
Once news came out that Mayo was getting promoted to HC in January, the focus soon shifted to who he was going to bring on as OC. This saga drew out for many weeks as the Pats lost out on a few top candidates early on (Shane Waldron, Zac Robinson, Liam Coen), flirted with bringing back former employees (Josh McDaniels, Nick Caley, Chad O'Shea) and even didn't rule out the return of Bill O'Brien after his dismal 2023 campaign until he accepted an assistant job at Ohio State that he left in short order to take the HC gig at Boston College once it became available in early February. Ultimately, they landed on the surprise choice of Alex Van Pelt. The former journeyman backup QB has been assistant coach in the NFL since 2006 and most recently served as the Browns OC and QB coach for 4 seasons before being fired following their playoff loss to the Texans in the Wild Card round in January. Van Pelt's relationship with Wolf from their time together with the Packers from 2012-17 is believed to have been a key factor in him landing the gig.
What's strange about Van Pelt is that he's been an OC for 5 total seasons and only called plays in one of them and that was all the way back in 2009 when he was the Bills OC during Dick Jauron's final year there. Having a guy that hasn't regularly called plays in 16 seasons (he famously called the plays in the 2020 Wild Card Game versus the Steelers when HC Kevin Stefanski was out with COVID) as the OC is pretty alarming, particularly for a team that employed longtime defensive coach Matt Patricia as an OC just 2 years ago. Sure, he was intimately involved in game planning with the Browns and has worked extensively with QB's across multiple stops around the league since then, but that's not the same as running an offense and all of the nuances that come with it over the course of a game.
As for the actual system he'll run, it'll likely mirror the running game and play action-driven attack that Stefanski ran in Cleveland. While the scheme isn't exactly electric, it can be very effective when it's executed well and it's not impossible to envision a scenario where this youth-driven Patriots group can make it work. Van Pelt has the luxury of dealing with zero expectations for this season as the Pats are rebuilding and will likely be using some combination of journeyman stopgap vet Jacoby Brissett and Maye at QB, but there will still be a lot of attention played to the kind of offense he builds here in his first opportunity to really establish his own system.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Offensive Line Play
I sincerely think the Patriots are in a pretty good spot to overachieve this season. Their defense-which surprisingly ranked in the top half of the league in nearly every major category during 2023 despite their porous offense-has a ton of continuity both on the field and among the coaching staff as all 11 projected starters played significant snaps when healthy last season and Mayo promoted longtime defensive line coach Demarcus Covington to DC. The potential for Brissett or Maye to give them considerably more than they got from the tandem of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe during their anemic 2023 campaign is extremely high, even with Van Pelt's inexperience as a playcaller. While they're still lacking a true #1, an injection of new blood with size and speed at receiver (K.J. Osborn, Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker-the latter two of whom are pretty highly touted rookie prospects) alongside the sure-handed slot threat Demario "Pop" Douglas and solid returning vet Kendrick Bourne-who is still recovering from the torn ACL that ended his 2023 campaign and likely won't return until October at the earliest-should open things up quite a bit for them in the passing game.
This whole potential modest pleasant surprise take is contingent on one thing: How this somewhat overhauled offensive line comes together. A slew of injuries, Trent Brown's unpredictable effort/availability and downright horrible play from their miscellaneous bunch of injury fill-ins including Atonio Mafi, Vederian Lowe and Conor McDermott contributed to this group being pretty consistently horrendous a year ago. Health isn't as much of issue this year at the moment as only Cole Strange-who is still on the mend from the patellar tendon tear he suffered in December versus the Chiefs-is on the shelf to start camp, but new OL coach Scott Peters has a couple of very tough situations to navigate.
Let's start with the pieces that are locked in: stalwart veteran center David Andrews is back for his 10th season in Foxboro, Onwenu appears set to shift over to right tackle full-time after filling in there periodically during his first four seasons in the league and Sidy Sow-who had a nice finish to his rookie year after a rough start-will take over for Onwenu at right guard. That's a solid enough group anchoring the line where the overall unit should at the very least not be a complete disaster as long as all of them remain on the field.
With Strange likely out to start the year, the entire left side of the line is in flux. The top candidates to take over for Strange at left guard are Mafi, which is fucking horrendous news since he allowed 5 sacks on 458 snaps last year and posted a dismal 32.3 grade on PFF and rookie Layden Robinson-who has been widely billed as a developmental project with questionable pass-blocking ability. Great stuff!
An even bigger point of concern is left tackle. As unreliable as Trent Brown was during his time here, he did at the very least look like a real starting left tackle most of the time he played. That solid floor doesn't exist with either candidate for the left tackle gig this year. The veteran option is Chukwuma Okorafor-who logged 59 starts at RT for the Steelers from 2018-23, but was never really better than average while the rookie option is Caedan Wallace-who was the starting RT at Penn State for 4 years, but never really popped in college and was viewed as a serious reach at the top of the 3rd round where the Pats selected him. While Okorafor's experience should give him the inside track for the job for now, Wallace feels like the more moldable piece since he's yet to play in the pros. Regardless, neither are ideal options for a rebuilding team that could get a QB or two irreparably damaged if their LT sucks shit. How Peters fares in his mission to build a respectable OL could be the difference between a QB playing awful or decent and that will likely be what determines whether this team wins 3-4 or 6-7 games.
Bottom Line:
While they don't have nearly enough talent to make a playoff push this year, the Patriots could surprise some people if their offense comes together, and the defense remains as stingy as they've been over the past couple of seasons.
New York Jets
2023 Record: 7-10 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Robert Saleh (4th season)
Notable Additions: DE Haason Reddick, T Tyron Smith, T Morgan Moses
Notable Departures: DE Bryce Huff, S Jordan Whitehead, DE John Franklin-Myers
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Tyrod Taylor is Now the Backup QB
It only took 4 offensive plays for the 2023 Jets season to come to an end following Aaron Rodgers Achillies tear and they spent the remaining 16.98 games trotting out the dream team of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle at QB. Despite their QB's posting a combined 3,362 YDS/11 TD's/ 15 INT's/10 lost fumbles on the year, they were able to win 7 games on account of their elite defense and respectable running game led by Breece Hall. They needed an insurance policy who could effectively manage games if something went wrong with Rodgers again and that's just what they got in Tyrod Taylor.
Few active QB's radiate as much boring stopgap/backup QB energy than Taylor. He's a relatively accurate passer (61.7 career CMP%, 64.4 last season in 12 appearances/5 starts with the Giants), boasts a very good TD/INT split (65/29) and is mobile enough to give you a little something in the rushing game if need be (2,268 YDS on 404 career attempts). Typically, he's been on teams that don't have a ton of talent, so stepping onto a Jets roster that has an elite WR in Garrett Wilson, a home run-hitting back in Hall and one of the best defenses in the league would be a dream come true for the grizzled journeyman. This man's unsexy steadiness spearheading a playoff run could make him the hero Jets fans deserve and the only thing standing in the way of this happening is a lazy, entitled 40-year-old coming off a major injury.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers' tenure with the Jets was always destined to be a disaster. Did people just forget who the Jets are when he ended up there? A Hall of Fame resume accomplished elsewhere is no match for the perpetual pain that East Rutherford serves up for the Green and Black, just ask Brett Favre-whose only notable accomplishment during his 1 season there was sexually harassing Jenn Sterger.
Being bullish on Rodgers heading into last season was one thing. He was 2 years removed from an MVP season and his down year in 2022 could be chalked up to him being disgruntled with Packers brass. But what reason is there to believe that everything will be great this year? We're talking about a 40, going on 41-year-old man with known work ethic concerns playing for arguably the most cursed franchise in the league that's accomplished everything a professional football player would ever want to accomplish coming off a major injury that has derailed the careers of much younger players. Treating his return as this lightning rod that will immediately propel the Jets into contention is quite frankly hilarious. He cares more about smoking DMT in the forests of Peru and having Pat McAfee at his 16-minute explanation of why reptilians were commanded to do 9/11 by George Soros than playing football at this point in his life and this injury has only intensified this feeling a zillion times over (he went to Egypt during OTA's for fuck's sake and didn't even bother to tell the team first!). The Jets have always been nothing more than a glorified retirement tour for Rodgers and they'll never win a fucking thing with him at the helm.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Offensive Line Health/Play
Investing in the offensive line was easily the smartest thing the Jets did this offseason. Running it back yet again was simply not an option and GM Joe Douglas was aggressive in his approach to overhaul their personnel. Douglas got the ball rolling with acquiring veteran right tackle Morgan Moses from the Ravens in a trade, then proceeded to pick up 5x All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith and 5th year guard John Simpson in free agency and wrapped up their offseason of o-line additions by drafting Penn State left tackle Olu Fashanu with the 11th overall pick. Smith, Moses and Simpson are expected to start alongside incumbent left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and center Joe Tipmann while Fashanu is expected to serve as a swing tackle/backup for Smith.
The problem with this plan is that in true Jets fashion, there's a lot of room for it go horribly wrong without stretching too far. Simpson got cut by the Raiders in December 2022 before reviving his career last year with a solid-ish season with the Ravens. Moses is 33 and missed time with injury for the first time since his rookie year in 2014 last season. Smith hasn't played a full season since 2015 and appeared in single digit games in both 2020 and 2022. Fashanu is among my favorite left tackle prospects in recent years, but he is pretty raw at the moment and could struggle during his initial NFL action. As for the returning Jets, Vera-Tucker has only played in 28 games through 3 NFL seasons and Tipmann was just alright in his 14 starts as a rookie. Nobody is denying how good this group could be if it all come together, but that is a big if considering the track records of these men (especially Smith and Vera-Tucker) and the Jets of it all.
Bottom Line:
As the great Kevin Garnett once said, "Anything is Possibleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee". However, I would be stunned if this was the year where everything finally came together for the talent-rich but idiotic and cursed Jets.
Projected Standings:
1.Miami Dolphins (11-6)
2.Buffalo Bills (10-7)
3.New York Jets (8-9)
4.New England Patriots (6-11)
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