Dallas Cowboys
2023 Record: 12-5 (1st in NFC East)
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (5th season)
Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, ILB Eric Kendricks, RB Royce Freeman
Notable Departures: T Tyron Smith, RB Tony Pollard, DE Dorance Armstrong
Biggest Reason for Excitement: TBD
Is this sort of a strange, lame take to have? Sure, but I promise it will make more sense once you read the Biggest Reason for Concern section. The Cowboys just have too much uncertainty surrounding the majority of the most important figures on their team to right now to get notably excited about anything right now. To atone for the lack of defined notable positive feelings about the 2024 Cowboys for now, here's a quick list of some minor things that are unrelated to their current set of crises that fans could be happy about:
-Trevon Diggs is back from the ACL tear that cost him nearly all of the 2023 season and he appears to be line to start in Week 1.
-Watching how DaRon Bland builds off his 2023 All-Pro campaign and adjusts to playing alongside Diggs after stepping in as his injury replacement last year.
-While he isn't the player he was back in his heyday with the Vikings, Eric Kendricks should be a more consistent, reliable presence at ILB than the oft-injured Leighton Vander Esch has been in recent years.
-Ezekiel Elliott played well in a secondary role with the Patriots last season and he could end up being more effective upon his return to the Cowboys than he was in 2022 on account of this period of reduced work.
-An imposing LT prospect (6'8, 322 lbs) armed with an arsenal of raw athletic tools like Tyler Guyton couldn't have landed in a better spot in the pros. If this kid is capable of becoming a more consistent, disciplined player than he was at Oklahoma, the Cowboys terrific o-line coaching will be able to get it out of him.
Now, if any of these things end up being the most exciting thing about the team, they're in deep trouble. But for now, they're a nice set of constellation prizes that can distract fans a bit from all of the worrisome shit that's been dominating the early training camp headlines.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Contract/Coaching Issues Making Their Way to the Field
The Cowboys offseason has been a non-stop circus dating back to January. Jerry Jones kept everyone on pins and needles for weeks while he contemplated Mike McCarthy's future with the team following their embarrassing blowout Wild Card Loss to the Packers on their home field. Jones ultimately decided to keep McCarthy for 2024, but in a classic Jerry move, he announced this news in the most disrespectful, insane fashion possible in a press conference where he stated McCarthy is in the final season of his contract and will not receive an extension before the start of the season. Nothing says you have confidence in the head coach like announcing to the world that he's a lame duck ahead of a vitally important season for the organization! Never change the way you do business Jerry, that's why you've won so much post-1995!
After the McCarthy saga concluded, the attention turned to the Cowboys 3 biggest star players in CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons. They're all seeking new contracts and as of today, there's been no meaningful progress on a deal for any of them. This situation has gotten more uncomfortable-particularly for Lamb and Prescott- in recent weeks as many of their peers (Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa) around the league have inked huge extensions to remain with their current teams.
Training camp has opened these wounds even further as Lamb is sitting out of practice until he (presumably) gets an extension, Prescott is publicly shitting on Jones for not paying him and Parsons is kind of just waiting around for his turn as his status as a 2021 draft pick with 2 years left on his rookie deal ensures he's going to be last on the priority list. All of these players are under contract for 2024 and none of them except for Dak-who has reported to camp and is currently practicing-can afford to hold out, so there's not any danger of them missing an extended portion of the schedule. There is however plenty of room for these guys to potentially drag down the team by not playing at a high enough effort level to help them win. Why would you be willing to bust your ass for a team that doesn't respect your contributions? All 3 of these guys are established stars with impressive bodies of work who play premium positions. They're going to get the contracts they desire whether it's from Dallas or elsewhere regardless of how they play this season, which puts the Cowboys in a precarious position that Jerry won't be able to talk or deflect his way out of.
Key to Reaching Ceiling: Jerry Jones Breaking Out His Damn Check Book
Jones could really end most of the bullshit surrounding the team right now if he just paid his players. The Cowboys have one of the best rosters in the league and the NFC remains wide open, so there's no reason this team couldn't be very competitive if they're all healthy and engaged. And with the exception of Dak-who turned 31 yesterday and has a lengthy track record of playoff faceplants that are nicely exemplified by his 2-5 career record, what debate is there to have about signing these guys to long-term deals? Lamb and Parsons are two of the most electrifying, highly productive young players in the league. These are the type of guys you build a team around as their current production is ridiculous and they might not even be at their peak yet as they're still about 2-3 years from entering their prime. You run the most valuable team in American professional sports and are allegedly a contender. Start acting like it and pay your fucking stars so fans can focus on the real problems like how they're going to choke in January, what the hell is going on at RB and Mike Zimmer's coaching prowess after 3 years away from the NFL.
Bottom Line:
Depends on how the rest of camp plays out. They could win 5 games or 13. No amount of blackmail or threats sent my way could convince me to bet a single dollar on any win total over/under for this god forsaken team.
New York Giants
2023 Record: 6-11 (3rd in NFC East)
Head Coach: Brian Daboll (3rd season)
Notable Additions: EDGE Brian Burns, RB Devin Singletary, QB Drew Lock
Notable Departures: RB Saquon Barkley, S Xavier McKinney, TE Darren Waller (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Some Splashes Were Made in the Offseason!!!
The supreme lack of sexiness on the Giants roster that was an endearing feature in 2022 became a bug in 2023 as their general lack of talent on both sides of the ball became glaring as they limped to a 6-11 record. As the whole football world has seen play out on Hard Knocks, that has changed this offseason.
GM Joe Schoen got things started very early by acquiring Brian Burns from the Panthers right before the official start of free agency in March. Burns hasn't had less than 7.5 sacks in any of his 5 NFL seasons thus far and the kind of consistent pressure he's able to generate as a pass-rusher is something the Giants haven't had since Jason Pierre-Paul left town following the 2017 season. Burns' arrival should also bolster the play of 2022 1st round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux-who's flashed at times but has been marred with inconsistency despite his solid 11.5 sack season a year ago.
Schoen kept things rolling at the top of the draft where they addressed their biggest need at WR by selecting Malik Nabers with the 6th overall pick. Nabers became the all-time leading receiver at LSU following his 2023 campaign-which means something considering all of the WR talent that has come of there in the past decade and possesses one of the most special speed/route-running combos of any prospect that's entered the NFL in recent years. There are some concerns about his ability to handle contact at the next level and adjust to the 2-foot catch rule given his lengthy history of getting 1 foot in bounds in college, but the rest of his game is complete enough where it shouldn't prevent him from providing the immediate impact the Giants need at this position.
Rounding out the intriguing pickups are veteran running back Devin Singletary, backup QB Drew Lock and rookie safety Tyler Nubin. Singletary is coming off a solid year with the Texans and should serve as a respectable replacement for the departed Saquon Barkley. Lock rehabbed his image a bit over the past 2 seasons with the Seahawks after a disastrous end to his tenure with the Broncos-which showed in the improved poise he displayed in his 2 starts last year in place of the injured Geno Smith and is a good, young insurance policy to have if things go sideways with Daniel Jones or he gets hurt again. Nubin was near-universally considered to be the top safety prospect in this year's class and has the kind of range and versatility that teams covet at the position. Is this enough to solve the Giants talent woes? Probably not, but it's a promising step in the right direction for a team that is still very much in the midst of a rebuild.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Not Enough Additions to the Offensive Line
All of the (largely warranted) vitriol directed towards Daniel Jones and the lack of receiving talent took the focus away from what was arguably the Giants offense's biggest problem: the offensive line. While star left tackle Andrew Thomas missing 7 games with a hamstring ailment was part to the problem, it went well beyond that as they consistently were bogged down with bad run blocking and even worse pass protection throughout last season.
Given their cap space and needs at every spot besides LT, offensive line should've been a top priority for Schoen. The market was pretty strong at their needed positions with a nice mix of ascending young players (Robert Hunt, Mike Onwenu) and established vets (Kevin Zeitler, Graham Glasgow) hitting the open market. The Giants didn't go for any of those options and instead went bargain shopping. The two bites they got on the thrift market were Jon Runyan Jr. and Jermaine Eluemenor. What makes these moves particularly confusing are not were these guys clear second-tier options, their presence doesn't take any responsibility away from their biggest liability: right tackle Evan Neal. Runyan Jr. was the weak link on a pretty good Packers line last season (54.7 PFF grade, 6 penalties, 2 sacks allowed) and never made much of a positive impression during his 50 starts there over the past 4 seasons while Eluemenor enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence with the Raiders over the past 2 years and change after flaming out with the Patriots, but his play in Vegas still wasn't consistently good by any means and the Giants will be moving him over to RG from his natural position of RT for reasons that still aren't quite clear to me given how fucking awful Neal has been at that spot so far. Any efforts to get this offense back on track could be thwarted immediately if this group continues to stink, so Scohen better hope that his new guys, Neal and 2nd year center Jonh Michael Schmitz can stay healthy and deliver, or this could be the miscalculation that ultimately gets him fired.
Key to Reaching Ceiling: Putting 2023 Behind Them
2023 was a really just a house of horrors for the Giants. Daniel Jones was playing poorly after receiving a new huge multi-year contract in the offseason then eventually tore his ACL. They got waxed by the Cowboys in both meetings. None of their receivers were productive. Wink Martindale's defense couldn't stop damn near anybody. The 3 weeks in late November/early December when they went on a winning streak and everybody became enamored with Tommy DeVito and his agent's goofy hat were kind of nice, but that was only a brief reprieve of light before the darkness crept back in.
As they begin to gear up for the 2024 season, they have the opportunity to put all of the disappointment, pain and aggravation they endured in 2023 behind them. Jones is taking first teams reps at camp and appears to be on track to start Week 1. Shane Bowen has taken over Martindale at DC. There's a new infusion of talent on the roster. This is a team that surprised people with their competitiveness in 2022 and getting back to that level in 2024 is attainable if Daboll can put Jones in a position to succeed and they can make some stops on defense.
Bottom Line:
As talented of a coach as Brian Daboll is, it's hard to be optimistic about this team as currently constructed.
Philadelphia Eagles
2023 Record: 11-6 (2nd in NFC East)
Head Coach: Nick Sirianni (4th season)
Notable Additions: RB Saquon Barkley, DE Bryce Huff, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson
Notable Departures: C Jason Kelce (retired), DT Fletcher Cox (retired), RB D'Andre Swift
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Howie Fucking Roseman Did It Again
Having a massive QB contract on the books did nothing to stop Howie Roseman from aggressively addressing the roster this offseason. Within the first 2 days of free agency alone, he brought in Saquon Barkley, Bryce Huff, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Zack Baun and Matt Hennessey. Roseman kept at it with depth pickups (C.J. Uzomah, Mekhi Becton, Devin White, Oren Burks, Parris Campbell, Max Scharping) the following weeks to sure up some problem areas. Best part about all of these moves is that were all completely reasonable deals, with most of them being 1-year contracts and nobody aside from Huff having an AAV above $13 mil.
As for the draft, Roseman made great use of his limited picks. They ended up landing two of the most highly touted DB prospects in the draft in physical outside corner Quinyon Mitchell and versatile chess piece Cooper DeJean in the top 2 rounds while using the later picks to roll the dice on a number of project players with upside including a raw pass rusher who dominated at the FCS level (Jalyx Hunt), towering receiver who could create some huge matchup problems if he can find ways to gain separation in the pros (Johnny Wilson) and fundamentally sound but undersized linebacker that has a family connection to the organization (Jeremiah Trotter Jr).
The savvy moves didn't end there as Roseman pulled the anti-Jerry Jones by promptly handing out extensions to basically all of the key pieces that were eligible to receive one. A.J. Brown, Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, DeVonta Smith and Jake Elliott all cashed out between the start of free agency in March and the start of the draft in late April, ensuring that there was no tension or discontent among their ranks as they headed into OTA's and camp. He also made the difficult but correct decision to trade away Haason Reddick-who is seeking a new contract-and rely on the group of Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Nolan Smith and newcomer Huff to serve as their primary pass rushers.
Having a GM that has a such a strong handle on what the team needs to compete, who should stay in the fold long-term and who can go, etc is such a blessing and Roseman continues to prove his immense value to the Eagles organization every single offseason.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Coordinator Changes Won't Solve the Problems That Plagued Them Last Season
Nobody would argue that Brian Johnson, Sean Desai and Matt Patricia didn't deserve to get fired following last season. What happened to the Eagles at the end of last year was one of the most stunning sudden tailspins you'll ever see in pro football. The offensive stagnated and the defense couldn't stop anything and there were no major injuries to blame. Shit just stopped working and it showed in their pathetic 1-7 finish to the season that culminated in a 32-9 shellacking in the Wild Card Round at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
At the same time, it's also hard to argue that these men weren't scapegoated. The effort level was questionable-particularly once the losses started to really pile up and Nick Siranni didn't cover himself in glory as he struggled to make adjustments, instill confidence in his players and was seen arguing with Jalen Hurts on the sidelines several times during this period.
New hires Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio are great coordinators, but they can't give this team heart and sow the division that appeared to be running through this locker room at the end of the year. Getting things back on track in terms of culture and mindset could prove to be even more difficult as longtime leaders Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox have now retired. The new coordinators and Siranni have to find a way to bring this team back together and if they can't, we'll know for sure that Johnson, Desai and Patricia weren't the problem after all.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Jalen Hurts Expanding His Game
Hurts is one of the most talented QB's in football. He showed that in 2022 when he got a Second Team All-Pro bid, finished 2nd in MVP voting and put together a hell of a performance in a QB duel with Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. That talent wasn't always on display in 2023-particularly down the aforementioned nightmare stretch run. He chucked a career-high 15 INT's, threw for only 157 more yards than he did in 2022 despite playing in 2 more games and saw both his rushing yards (760 to 605) and yards per carry (4.6 to 3.9) totals dip. Was losing OC/playcaller Shane Steichen or teams figuring out how to better to blame for this regression? Probably a bit of both. Steichen's presence was certainly missed as the play calling wasn't as creative under Johnson, but Hurts is also too reliant on RPO's to succeed.
What Moore needs to do to ensure that Hurts can be a long-term star QB is to find ways for him to expand his game. The RPO's and play action passes have worked great for him in the past, but there's a predictability to that is likely going to force diminishing returns as time goes on. He's a strong enough thrower from both the pocket and on the move to do a variety of things back there and the new Kelce-less line should continue to be strong enough to handle whatever assignment they're asked to do. Hurts is at the juncture of his career where he needs to push himself further and I believe that his talent as well as that of those who are surrounding him give him an excellent chance of pulling it off.
Bottom Line:
As discouraging as their finish to 2023 was, I believe that this team has what it takes to get back on track in 2024.
Washington Commanders
2023 Record: 4-13 (4th in NFC East)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (1st season)
Notable Additions: DE Dorance Armstrong, OLB Frankie Luvu, RB Austin Ekeler
Notable Departures: CB Kendall Fuller, QB Sam Howell, WR Curtis Samuel
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Jayden Daniels
Ever since they let Kirk Cousins depart in free agency after the 2017 season, Washington has had a huge void at the QB position. Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Carson Wentz and Ryan Fitzpatrick are just some of the names that have occupied that position since Cousins left town and this carousel hasn't led to much success as they've put together 0 winning seasons and just 1 playoff appearance (2020) over this period. Last season was a particularly exhilarating rush as Sam Howell did his best Jameis Winston impression with his gunslinging antics (his 21 TD/21 INT line is probably the funniest we've seen from a QB since Winston's infamous 30/30 season in 2019) over the course of 17 games. Landing the #2 pick in this year's draft after their dreadful 4-13 finish in 2023 all but ensured that a new QB was coming to Washington in 2024 and any hint of ambiguity towards new GM Adam Peters' plans with that pick went out the window when they traded Howell to the Seahawks in mid-March.
Given the guarantee that DC native Caleb Williams was headed to Chicago at #1, their attention shifted to Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. While both guys had their fans around the league, Daniels was the favorite to land in Washington after lighting up SEC competition and winning the Heisman during his final year at LSU in 2023. He did indeed end being the guy despite some late drama being added to the equation when he and his camp reportedly got pissed that the Commanders brought in every top QB prospect besides Williams for a visit at the same time as him.
What Daniels provides Washington with is the most excitement they've had at the QB spot in quite time some time. This kid isn't just a special athlete capable of making game-breaking plays with his legs, he's an exceptionally accurate passer (68.7 CMP% over his final 3 seasons of college) with terrific arm strength. Pairing him with an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who had some success with Kyler Murray in Arizona and a solid group of pass-catchers headed up by Terry McLaurin only increases his chances of getting off to a smooth start as possible in the NFL.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Jayden Daniels Getting Injured
Of course, Daniels boasts garden variety red flags like 99.9% of QB prospects have coming out of college. His productivity wasn't all that great prior to playing with elite talent at LSU (Daniels was at Arizona State from 2019-21) and he has a lengthy track record of pulling the ball down and running with it before going through all of his progressions as a passer. The most uniquely concerning red flag he has is the way that he runs downfield. Much attention has been paid to the slightness of his frame despite being 6'4, but the bigger issue is that he doesn't really try to avoid contact at all while rushing. Hell, I'd go far to say that he often invites it. Many of the hits I saw on his LSU tape are among the most brutal shots I've seen a QB take at the college level. As we saw just last season, Anthony Richardson-who has considerably more mass than Daniels-got banged up repeatedly and quickly was lost for the season over his refusal to avoid contact as a rusher. Given his frame, it may take even less big shots for Daniels to go down.
Further heightening the injury concern for Daniels is the Commanders offensive line. This group allowed Howell to get sacked a league-high 65 times and hit another 57 a year ago. Those are the kind of numbers that ensure you're not long for this league, just ask David Carr, Tim Couch and fellow Washington QB Robert Griffin III. To be fair, this group is only returning 2 starters from 2023 (right guard Sam Cosmi and right tackle Andrew Wylie) and new center Tyler Biadasz is a clear upgrade over the Nick Gates/Tyler Larsen tandem that held down the fort following the retirement of Chase Roullier. But this still is not a group you can have any real confidence in-especially since the left side of the line consists of Nick Allegretti- a career backup with the Chiefs who largely earned this opportunity to start after stepping in for the injured Joe Thuney in the final 2 games of their championship run last year and either raw rookie Brandon Coleman or journeyman Cornelius Lucas at the blind side tackle spot.
Kingsbury is going to have instill Murray's gift for avoiding contact whenever possible in Daniels or this kid might not even get the opportunity to prove himself in the league.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Dan Quinn Elevating This Defense Right Away
A large part of why Dan Quinn got another opportunity to be an NFL head coach was the tremendous work he did as the Cowboys defensive coordinator. Perhaps the most impressive accomplishment of Quinn's 3 years in Dallas was him coming in during the 2021 season and completely flipping around the trajectory of the defense right away. Aside from the hiccup of dipping to 20th in pass defense after finishing 11th in 2020, the group made incredible overall progress going from 28th to 7th in scoring defense to 31st to 16th in rushing defense, and 26th to 2nd in 3rd down defense. Things only got better for them over the following 2 seasons as they got up to the top 5 in scoring defense, passing defense and sacks.
Quinn will have the opportunity to make that kind of remarkable flip again in Washington as he's inheriting one of the worst defenses in football from a year ago. The Commanders ranked dead last in both scoring and passing defense while faring only slightly better against the run (27th) and in forcing turnovers (tied for 26th). Part of these woes were brought on by ownership waving the white flag early on and electing to deal away Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the trade deadline in October, but their struggled with discipline in coverage, tackling and just generally making impact plays would've persisted even if their top edge rushers remained with the team through the season.
Perhaps the most encouraging thing for Quinn's rebuilding efforts is that there's currently only 4 projected starters returning from the 2023 team (defensive tackles Da'Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen, outside cornerback Benjamin St. Juste, safety Darrick Forrest-who missed the final 12 games of 2023 with a shoulder injury). Not only does it expel the demons of the old, ineffective defense, it means that the inevitable difficulties that come with picking up a new system are less of an issue since most of the starters will be guys that Quinn believes can fit into the scheme him and his DC Joe Whitt are running here.
Speaking of the newcomers, Peters took full advantage of their heaps of cap space to give Quinn as many legit vet building blocks as possible. Dorance Armstrong and Bobby Wagner have already thrived with Quinn in Dallas and Seattle respectively while Frankie Luvu is the kind of instinctive, polished linebacker that has had success in his system over the years (Deion Jones, K.J. Wright). The secondary is a little bit sketchier as Michael Davis was largely just an above average corner during his time with the Chargers, Jeremy Chinn has come back to earth in a major way over the past couple of seasons after a hot start to his career with the Panthers and rookie slot corner Mike Sanistrill is a bit of an enigma at this point despite his impressive play as a throwback thumper DB at Michigan, but they should at the bare minimum provide some more stability at these spots than they had a year ago.
Nobody should expect Quinn and Whitt to get this group up to the top 10 after the way they played last year. But a finish somewhere in the top half of the league in most categories feels attainable and that kind of leap would be great news for this team as they work their way through the major reset process yet again.
Bottom Line:
The Commanders are the NFC's answer to the Patriots: They're not going to make the playoffs, but they could be much better than expected if at least some of the biggest question marks surrounding them end up working out in their favor.
Predicted Standings:
1.Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)
2.Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
3.Washington Commanders (6-11)
4.New York Giants (5-12)
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