Wednesday, September 13, 2023

2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 2

=Previous ranking 

1.(3) San Francisco 49ers (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Los Angeles Rams

2.(2) Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Minnesota Vikings 

3.(1) Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars 

4.(6) Dallas Cowboys (1-0) Week 2 opponent: New York Jets 

5.(7) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

6.(9) Miami Dolphins (1-0) Week 2 opponent: New England Patriots 

7.(11) Baltimore Ravens (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Cincinnati Bengals 

8.(14) Detroit Lions (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Seattle Seahawks 

9.(8) Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Tennessee Titans 

10.(5) Buffalo Bills (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Las Vegas Raiders

11.(4) Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Baltimore Ravens 

12.(10) Minnesota Vikings (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

13.(19) Cleveland Browns (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers 

14.(15) New York Jets (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Dallas Cowboys 

15.(17) New Orleans Saints (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Carolina Panthers

16.(20) Atlanta Falcons (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Green Bay Packers

17.(25) Green Bay Packers (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Atlanta Falcons

18.(29) Los Angeles Rams (1-0) Week 2 opponent: San Francisco 49ers

19.(24) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Chicago Bears

20.(18) New England Patriots (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Miami Dolphins 

21.(22) Washington Commanders (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Denver Broncos

22.(23) Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) Week 2 opponent: Buffalo Bills

23.(21) Tennessee Titans (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Los Angeles Chargers 

24.(16) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Cleveland Browns

25.(12) Seattle Seahawks (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Detroit Lions

26.(13) New York Giants (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Arizona Cardinals 

27.(27) Denver Broncos (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Washington Commanders

28.(30) Indianapolis Colts (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Houston Texans 

29.(26) Chicago Bears (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

30.(28) Carolina Panthers (0-1) Week 2 opponent: New Orleans Saints

31.(31) Houston Texans (0-1) Week 2 opponent: Indianapolis Colts 

32.(32) Arizona Cardinals (0-1) Week 2 opponent: New York Giants

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Week 1 Fantasy Football Winners and Losers: 2023 Edition

Quarterback

MVP: Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) 

Adam Schefter would've been well within his rights to fire off another "ASSAULT" tweet after watching what Tua did to the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Other than a pair of giveaways (an INT and lost fumble), the 4th year QB put together a masterpiece of a game-throwing for 466 YDS and 3 TD's as the 'Phins went onto win a crazy shootout at SoFi. A Patriots secondary that did a pretty good job of limiting Jalen Hurts through the air in Week 1 awaits him next.   

Honorable Mentions: Deshaun Watson (Browns), Anthony Richardson (Colts), Justin Herbert (Chargers)

LVP: Joe Burrow (Bengals) 

Nobody is disputing whether or not it was worth it but the optics of Burrow putting together the worst game of his pro career mere days after signing the largest contract in NFL history are horrendous. Joe Burr took on a whole new meaning as the Bengals QB was ice cold against the Browns, throwing for a pitiful 82 YDS, 0 TD's and an INT in an embarrassing no-show by the entire team. He'll attempt to redeem himself in Week 2 in another key AFC North bout against the Ravens  

Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Allen (Bills), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

Running Back

MVP: Christian McCaffery (49ers) 

McCaffery picked up right where he left off in 2022 as he torched the Steelers for 152 YDS and a TD on 22 carries while adding 3 receptions for 17 YDS to further pad his monster statline. If he can get those pass-catching numbers up and stay healthy, he'll have an excellent chance of being this year's top overall fantasy player.

Honorable Mentions: Aaron Jones (Packers), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Tony Pollard (Cowboys)

LVP: Najee Harris (Steelers)

To be fair, Harris did rip off a couple of good runs in this game. However, it didn't really matter much as gamescript rendered him irrelevant as the Steelers got pantsed by the 49ers in front of their home crowd and he ended the game with just 8 touches (6 caries, 2 receptions) for 33 YDS. Monday night's tilt with the Browns should provide him much more volume and thus, a better idea of where he stands in this offense in 2023. 

Dishonorable Mentions: Dameon Pierce (Texans), D'Andre Swift (Eagles), A.J Dillon (Packers)

Wide Receiver 

MVP: Tyreek Hill (Dolphins)

Hill was the primary beneficiary of Tua's eruption-dusting a comically overmatched Chargers secondary for 215 YDS and 2 TD's on 11 receptions. While the Patriots will certainly give Hill more attention than the Chargers did, their young corner group led by Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones and Myles Bryant could have a tough time containing him.  

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Aiyuk (49ers), Stefon Diggs (Bills), Calvin Ridley (Jaguars)

LVP: Tee Higgins (Bengals)

Unlike fellow member of the donut club Drake London, Higgins did get peppered with targets (8). But Joe Burrow looking his way often doesn't change the fact that he failed to make a single catch against the Browns and this dud caused a lot of people to lose their fantasy games. The long-term concerns about Higgins' ability to perform are non-existent and it wouldn't be at all surprising if he turns things around as soon as this Sunday versus the Ravens. 

Dishonorable Mentions: Drake London (Falcons), Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), D.J. Moore (Bears)

Tight End

MVP: Evan Engram (Jaguars)

Nothing exemplifies the sad state of affairs at the tight end position right now-especially in a week where both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were sidelined-quite like Evan Engram being the MVP among TE1's with a 5 REC/49 YD line against the Colts. About the only comfort that Engram's ho-hum performance provided his fantasy owners with is the confirmation that Calvin Ridley's arrival wasn't going to minimize his role in the Jags offense. He'll look to provide better numbers and maybe even find the endzone against the Chiefs on Sunday.

Honorable Mentions: T.J. Hockenson (Vikings), Tyler Higbee (Rams), Cole Kmet (Bears)

LVP: Dallas Goedert (Eagles)

Hurts' suspect performance on Sunday against the Patriots is no excuse for only looking Goedert's way 1 time and allowing him to finish the game without a catch. He's too damn dynamic and tough to matchup against to be used so sparingly in an offense that was basically unstoppable a year ago. Hopefully he'll much more involved in Thursday's contest with the Vikings. 

Dishonorable Mentions: Chigoziem Okonkwo (Titans), George Kittle (49ers), David Njoku (Browns)

Defense/Special Teams

MVP: Cowboys

The eye-popping box score (7 sacks, 2 INT's-including a pick 6, FUM REC, a blocked filed goal that was returned for a TD) dosen't properly convey just how dominant the Cowboys D/ST was on Sunday. The Giants were knocked so out of rhythm by their physicality, speed and stellar execution that they had a bitch of time trying to get 1st downs, let alone score points in a 40-0 home loss that was over before the end of 1st quarter. The next team set to run into this buzzsaw group?: How about the Zach Wilson-led Jets! This kid really can't catch a break man...  

Honorable Mentions: Jets, 49ers, Eagles

LVP: Dolphins

Outside of a couple of 4th quarter stops, the Vic Fangio effect was not immediately felt in Miami. They surrendered 34 points to a Chargers offense that looked pretty great under their 1st game with Kellen Moore as OC while only registering 3 sacks against their retooled offensive line and failed to generate any takeaways. They'll look to play a cleaner, more aggressive game in Week 2 against a Patriots offense that surrendered a pair of sacks and giveaways to the Eagles in Week 1.

Dishonorable Mentions: Bills, Steelers, Broncos

Monday, September 11, 2023

Quick Movie Reviews: You Are So Not Invited to My Bat Mitzvah, Bottoms, The Equalizer 3

You Are So Not Invited to My Bat Mitzvah: You Are So Not Invited to My Bat Mitzvah was done a real disservice by releasing almost exactly four months after Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. It tackles many of the same themes including the difficulties of navigating the social minefield that is middle school and how someone can lose sight of who they are and the people that matter to them while trying to elevate themselves up the social hierarchy, the intense, often deeply embarrassing emotional and physical changes that puberty brings on and shifting parent/child relationship dynamics, just with considerably less warmth, wit and effective humor than Kelly Fremon Craig's film did. The film does routinely threaten to ride the magnetism of lead Sunny Sandler (daughter of Adam) and a scene-stealing supporting performance from Sarah Sherman as eccentric Hebrew School teacher Rabbi Rebecca to success, but their efforts are always stifled by just how stale the delivery of this age-old coming-of-age story is. With that being said, the current generation of teen girls will likely love it and that's really all that matters at the end of the day. 

Grade: C

Bottoms: In a summer that was refreshingly heavy on theatrically-released, R-rated comedies, the best was saved for last. Bottoms finally answers the question of what would a 2000's high school comedy look like if it was weirder and gayer. Real life friends Ayo Edebiri and Rachel Sennott-who also co-wrote the script with another real life friend in director Emma Seligman (Shiva Baby)-fuel another sizable jump in their rapidly ascending career stock with exceptional comedic performances as dorky lesbian loser BFF's who capitalize on a serious of misunderstandings and a recent uptick in violence against women at their high school at the hands of the rival football team to start a "self-defense" club with the hopes of getting the attention of (and eventually sleeping with) their cheerleader crushes (Havana Rose Liu, Kaia Gerber). Sound absurd? Well, it very much is and that spirit is what makes Bottoms so refreshing.

Without having to adhere to the restrictive conventions of our current reality, Bottoms turns into a liberating, anarchic celebration of silliness that only gets funnier as its plot developments get progressively nuttier. Seligman and her cast-which also includes Nicholas Galitzine, Miles Fowler, Zamani Wilder, Summer Joy Campbell, Virginia Tucker, Marshawn Lynch, Dagmara Dominczyk and Punkie Johnson-approach this material with the type of fearless dialed-in attitude that indicates they knew they'd only one chance to do something like this so they might well as go all in. There's so many jokes populating every frame of this movie that it will take at least a few viewings to catch them all, the fight sequences feature cleaner editing and more fluid camerawork than at least 75% of the traditionally action movies that are being made right now and its willingness to go to some really dark, strange and goofy places with the humor gives the film a very unique DNA that helps keep it fun, hilarious and surprising throughout. Bottoms is a cult classic comedy in-the-making just like the ones Seligman, Sennott and Edebiri grew up renting from Blockbuster, watching on HBO and sneaking into theaters to see before they turned 17 and in this day and age where the entire genre is fighting for survival, the existence of something so warped is a beautiful sight to behold. When people look like back on this era, Bottoms will be right up there with I Think You Should Leave and The Eric Andre Show when it comes to delighting people with a specific type of absurdist humor and influencing the next generation of weirdos to make their own work of depraved, deeply silly art.                           

Grade: A-

The Equalizer 3: It's hard to envision a scenario where The Equalizer trilogy ended on a stronger note than this. There's still plenty of bumps along the way courtesy of Antoine Fuqua still not quite being able to figure out how to pace these movies and Richard Wenk's script delivering another stock set of villains-this time in the form of a ruthless Camorra (Andrea Scarduzio) boss who is hellbent on taking over a small village on the Amalfi Coast, but the stunning Italian scenery, kinetic bursts of brutal action and another show-stopping display of Denzel Washington's unicorn movie star power as he movingly portrays Robert McCall's unexpected journey of beginning to find true peace after decades of only finding it through inflicting pain on those who harmed the weak and defenseless. McCall deserves to sail off in the sunset with a smile on his face and his guns tucked away in a drawer somewhere and kudos to Fuqua, Washington and Wenk for finding a way to do that within the framework of the universe they've built up over the past 9 years.       

Grade: B-

Thursday, September 7, 2023

2023 NFL Prediction-Palooza: Playoffs, Super Bowl, MVP and More

A nearly 7-month nightmare in the eyes of tens of millions people around the globe will end tonight when the Detroit Lions take on the Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the first game of the 2023 NFL season. To honor this beautiful occasion, I put together a big list of predictions for this season that covers everything from Super Bowl winner to what coach has the highest odds of being fired before the season ends. It's a silly, speculation-based tradition that rarely lines up with reality, but it's fun to do and that's really all that matters damn it! Enjoy the kickoff weekend festivities everyone. It's only a matter of time before nearly all of you have your soul crushed by your team yet again.

Playoffs:

AFC:

1.Chiefs

2.Dolphins

3.Ravens

4.Jaguars

5.Bills

6.Bengals

7.Steelers

Wild Card:

Dolphins over Steelers

Ravens over Bengals

Jaguars over Bills

Divisional Round:

Chiefs over Jaguars

Dolphins over Ravens

Conference Championship:

Chiefs over Dolphins

NFC:

1.Eagles

2.49ers

3.Falcons

4.Lions

5.Cowboys

6.Seahawks

7.Vikings

Wild Card:

49ers over Vikings

Seahawks over Falcons

Cowboys over Lions

Divisional Round:

Eagles over Seahawks

49ers over Cowboys

Conference Championship:

Eagles over 49ers

Super Bowl:

Chiefs over Eagles

Awards:

MVP: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Offensive Player of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals)

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett (Browns)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson (Texans)

Comeback Player of the Year: Calvin Ridley (Jaguars)*

Coach of the Year: Mike McDaniel (Dolphins)

League Leaders:

Passing YDS: Justin Herbert

Passing TD's: Trevor Lawrence 

Rushing YDS: Christian McCaffery

Rushing TD's: Saquon Barkley

Receiving YDS: Ja'Marr Chase

Receiving TD's: Tyreek Hill

Receptions: Justin Jefferson

Sacks: Myles Garrett

Interceptions: Jessie Bates III

Forced Fumbles: Myles Garrett 

Tackles: Roquan Smith

Miscellaneous Awards:

AFC Team Most Likely to Surprise: Steelers

AFC Team Most Likely to Disappoint: Jets

NFC Team Most Likely to Surprise: Falcons

NFC Team Most Likely to Disappoint: Bears

Most Likely to Go 17-0: Nobody

Most Likely to Go 0-17: Cardinals

Coach Most Likely to Be Fired During the Season: Josh McDaniels (Raiders)

*This is assuming that they don't elect to give it to Damar Hamlin 

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

2023 NFL Preview: NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

2022 Record: 4-13 (4th in NFC West)

Head Coach: Jonathan Gannon (1st season)

Notable Additions: ILB Kyzir White, WR Zach Pascal, QB Josh Dobbs

Notable Departures: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DE Zach Allen, CB Byron Murphy

Biggest for Excitement: Tanking

Last year's clown car of a season inspired owner Michael Bidwell to blow the whole damn thing up. Kliff Kingsbury got fired. Star WR DeAndre Hopkins got waived. Defensive leaders Byron Murphy and Zach Allen left in free agency. Hell, even their 1st (Isaiah Simmons) and 3rd round picks (Josh Jones)-both full-time starters in 2022-got traded a couple weeks back. 

Heading into their Week 1 contest with the Commanders, Budda Baker, Marquise Brown, James Conner, D.J. Humphries, Rondale Moore, Jalen Thompson, Kelvin Beachum, Will Hernandez, Marco Wilson, Leki Fotu and Zaven Collins are the only starters from last year's team that appear primed to return to their roles to start off this year. That lack of continuity paired with a new coaching staff perfectly sets the stage for a season full of growing pains, which means the tank job is in a perfect position to be executed.

The cherry on top of this commitment to losing in 2023? Cutting expected starting quarterback Colt McCoy a mere 2 weeks before the season started. Deciding that there's no room for the steady mediocrity that McCoy provides under center so close to Week 1 is some really advanced level tanking that should immediately thrust GM Monti Ossenfort into the Executive of the Year conversation.

Further bolstering Ossenfort's EOTY campaign is their plan at QB to start the year: Either Joshua Dobbs-who they acquired via trade from the Browns the day before they cut bait with McCoy or Clayton Tune. Dobbs is best known for being the 3rd string QB with the Steelers from 2017-18 and 2020-21 who got plenty of cameratime whenever there was a Ben Roethlisberger injury scare (so about 5-7 times per season). He didn't log any meaningful playing time until he started 2 games for the Titans last year during the deeply depressing 7-game losing streak they ended their season on and aside from that, he's only thrown 17 passes in the pros. Thune is a rookie out of the University of Houston that was selected in the 5th round whose negative attributes (throws under pressure, throwing mechanics, slow release) would likely be highlighted on a team like the Cardinals. He was viewed as a longshot to make the roster as recently as June and the fact that he's still around could simply be a case of him being a cheap way to fill a QB spot on the roster. 

Best of all? New head coach Jonathan Gannon declared to name a starter to "maintain a competitive advantage". Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio can't be sleeping much knowing that they'll have to prepare for a pair of QB's with 2 combined NFL starts and 0 wins under their belt. Just remember Cardinals fans: The pain of this season could prove to very worthwhile in the long run, so find the comedy in the suffering and put your focus on what could come next after this wretched trainwreck is over.        

Biggest Reason for Concern: Jonathan Gannon's Speeches

The Cardinals social media team reminded the entire NFL community of how electric of a presence Gannon is in the locker room when they released a trailer for the team's self-produced training camp web series Cardinals Flight Plan last week. On one hand, I felt his pain as somebody who is also wildly uncomfortable and exceptionally awful at speaking in front of a large group of people. On the other, I know that somebody with those skills might not be cut out for the job of NFL head coach. 

Gannon is such an awkward, juiceless speaker that he makes his former boss Nick Siranni look like Flavor Flav. When you're in charge of a single group on a team, you can afford to have no charisma or verbal communication skills. When you're leading a team, you better hope that you're X and O's can compensate for that or otherwise, you're at risk of losing that locker room real quick. Regardless of whether or not his speeches have an effect on his standing in the locker room, the Cardinals players who have to fight back laughter and/or displaying visible confusion will be in my thoughts all season long.  

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Stapling Kyler Murray to the Bench

Unsurprisingly, Kyler Murray will begin the season on the PUP list as he continues to rehab from the ACL tear he sustained last December versus the Patriots. This will keep him out for at least 4 games and after that, Cardinals will have to make a decision on whether he will return to practice (and eventually the active roster) or be moved to season-ending IR within 5 weeks. If Murray feels he's healthy enough to play this season, the Cardinals need to just keep him on the bench. The only goal for their 2023 season is getting the #1 pick to either use on USC QB Caleb Williams or getting a king's ransom from another team for the right to move up and select Williams. Having a middle-of-the-road NFL starter out there will make that mission harder to pull off. You can't be in a 12-10 game in the 4th quarter in mid-November and have Murray steal you a win with his athleticism or rocket arm. If they insist on playing Murray this season to shake the rust off, stick him out there for the last couple games of the season after the top pick is firmly in hand. 

We saw what happened to the Jets in 2020 when they got cute and decided to win a couple of games late in the year to take themselves out of position to select Trevor Lawrence and the Cardinals can not let something like actually playing their $230.5 mil franchise QB compromise their goal of having the worst record in the league. The difference between #1 and #2 might not seem like much on paper, but just remember that it could mean the difference between Lawrence and Zach Wilson.    

Bottom Line:

A legendary tank job could be in the works in Arizona this season. Let's hope they have the immense dedication to sucking to see it through.

Los Angeles Rams

2022 Record: 5-12 (3rd in NFC West)

Head Coach: Sean McVay (7th season) 

Notable Additions: CB Akhello Witherspoon, G Kevin Dotson, WR Demarcus Robinson

Notable Departures: CB Jalen Ramsey, ILB Bobby Wagner, WR Allen Robinson

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Sean McVay Returning to the Sideline

The speculation that Sean McVay was set to leave the sidelines for a cushy TV analyst gig that started last offseason further intensified after the Rams faceplanted in 2022. McVay put that rumor to rest (for another year at least) when he confirmed he would be returning as head coach of the Rams about a week after the regular season ended in January. As the Rams underwent a pretty significant reset this season after either releasing, trading or electing not to re-sign a large number of impact players including Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd, Taylor Rapp, Matt Gay, A'Shawn Robinson and Troy Hill, McVay's coaching prowess will be needed more than ever to help elevate a roster that went from loaded on both sides of the ball to pretty thin on talent basically overnight and Stan Kroneke is lucky to have him back in the fold instead of having to roll the dice on the open market with a best case scenario of landing a coach that's maybe half as good as him. 

Biggest Reason for Concern: Whatever the Hell is Going On with Cooper Kupp's Hamstring

Huge news broke on Sunday at Rams practice when McVay revealed to the gathered reporters that Kupp was in Minnesota to see a specialist about the hamstring injury he suffered at the beginning of training camp. He also said that Kupp was still "day-to-day", but it feels like he's a pretty safe bet that he won't be out there for their Week 1 showdown with the Seahawks. This is a worst case scenario situation for an offense that was expected to be leaning heavily on Kupp to try and get out of the rut they fell into last season when they finished 27th in scoring and dead last in total offensive YDS as well as Kupp himself as he was already dealing with the burden of bouncing back from the severe high ankle sprain that required surgery that prematurely ended his 2022 season. 

As horrible as the Rams offense was for much of last season, Kupp still found ways to perform-logging a 75 REC/812 YD/6 TD line in only 9 games. Without him out there to start the year, they're facing the same lack of explosiveness, polish and versatility amongst their pass-catchers that caused their offense to struggle even more without him than they did with him. The passing game was so anemic once Kupp went down that they were forced to turn Cam Akers into a Marshall Faulk-esque workhorse who was being fed the ball 25+ times per game in order to try and make their offensive run with anything that even slightly resembled efficiency since Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek, Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell just weren't cutting it (free agent bust Allen Robinson was also out of the lineup with injury by this point). To be fair, Matthew Stafford was also out of the lineup for much of the stretch where Kupp was sidelined, but Higbee only registering just over 600 YDS in 17 games and Skowronek, Jefferson and Atwell each finishing the year with less than half the amount of YDS than Kupp did in more games played is just a brutal look. Unless journeyman Demarcus Robinson-who is the sole new addition at WR-can suddenly pop in a new system after flaming out with the Chiefs, Raiders and Ravens, there's just no chance this group can be a functional pass offense without Kupp in it. If Kupp doesn't come back soon or at all this season, McVay very well could regret not fleeing the sidelines for a studio or broadcast booth.    

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Matthew Stafford Returning to Form

Just a year after proving his doubters wrong by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl win and putting together one of the best statistical seasons of his career, Stafford had a nightmarish 2022 season that was defined by injuries to himself and his teammates and lackluster play from his weapons and offensive line largely as a result of said injuries. Heading into 2023, the 35-year old is fully healthy after missing the final 7 games of the 2022 season with lingering concussion symptoms and a spinal cord contusion.

The road back to form won't be easy and it already hit a speed bump when his wife Kelly revealed on her podcast that he has a hard time connecting with his younger teammates-which is really bad news since the majority of his current teammates outside of Kupp, Aaron Donald and most of the starting offensive line are 25 or under. After having some uncomfortable conversations with the gen-Z kids on the roster, Stafford will have to reckon with the more pressing issues of Kupp being out indefinitely and building up a rapport with the whippersnappers on-field to atone for the one he lacks with them off of it. There's also the possibility of the mysterious lingering elbow ailment that derailed the beginning of returning and further spoiling his efforts to return to pre-2022 levels. Fun stuff all-around for the Staffman!

What Stafford does have to aid him in his fight to get back is an unwavering belief in his abilities from his coach, the luxury of a healthy offensive line (Joseph Noteboom, rookie Steve Avila, Brian Allen, Rob Havenstein, either Kevin Dotson or Tremayne Archum at right guard) heading into the season-which he wasn't afforded much at all last season as Noteboom and Allen missed 10+ games and Havenstein and backup guard Coleman Shelton ended up being the only offensive lineman to start over 8 games (13 for Shelton, 17 for Havenstein)- and a playcaller that is known for innovation and tailoring his gameplans to the strengths of the QB. And honestly as long as he can hold up physically, that could be all he needs to thrive again and subsequently lift this team out of the NFC's basement. 

Bottom Line:

After injuries blew up their 2022 campaign, the Rams are just now starting to really pay the price for the "Fuck Them Picks" philosophy that netted them a Super Bowl. The cost of that strategy is going to hurt them dearly in 2023 as they trot out the weakest roster they've had since the final days of Jeff Fisher, so expect a lot of empty seats and sadness in SoFi this fall.         

San Francisco 49ers

2022 Record: 13-4 (1st in NFC West)

Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (7th season)

Notable Additions: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Sam Darnold 

Notable Departures: T Mike McGlinchey, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, S Jimmie Ward

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Adding Javon Hargrave to an Already Loaded Defensive Line

A combination of injuries and poor play (by his lofty standards) from Arik Armstead and merely respectable sack totals from their rotational edge rushers (Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenhu, Kerry Hyder) led to Nick Bosa earning a little under half of the team's total sacks and the team finishing "only" tied for 9th in the league with 44. While addressing the pass-rush shouldn't have by any mean been a priority for the front office, making Javon Hargrave their lone splash free agency move will certainly help make the team better. Hargrave was at the forefront of the Eagles stupid deep and stupid effective pass-rush over the past few seasons and he ended up earning a new career-high sack total in 2022 with 11. By lining up next to Bosa, a now-healthy Armstead and their new secondary pass-rush leader Drake Jackson-who played relatively well in limited snaps as a rookie last year, Hargrave will have a tremendous opportunity to continue to get after quarterbacks while simultaneously creating opportunities for his teammates to do the same by pushing the pocket. If Bosa and Armstead can stay healthy for the duration of the season, this front should be in contention to be the most productive and widely-feared group in the league.

Biggest Reason for Concern: Brock Purdy

One of the most shocking events of the 2022 season was what happened to the 49ers once Brock Purdy was forced to take over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. The rookie out of Iowa State who started the year off as a 3rd stringer logged 6 games of meaningful action and 5 starts in the regular season and didn't lose a single one of them. Not only that but the kid showed some real poise, toughness and command under center and quickly gained the trust of his veteran teammates while posting some solid numbers (1,374 YDS/13 TD's/4 INT/67.1 CMP%). PurdyMania got so crazy that quite a few of his teammates even insisted that the only reason the Eagles beat them in the NFC Champonship Game was because the rookie QB tore the UCL in his throwing elbow early in the game.

These 6 games were all Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch needed to see to commit to Purdy as their starter moving forward as they let Jimmy Garoppolo walk in free agency and traded Trey Lance-who they gave up 2 1st round picks to move up and select at #3 in 2021-to the Cowboys in exchange for a 4th round pick late last month. Nothing about this is shocking as Shanahan has been pretty vocal about his low opinion of both Garoppolo and Lance during their time with the team and Purdy is the kind of unheralded guy that will efficiently run his system without asking any questions or for any deviations to be made. However, it does seem a little bit premature to just hand him the reigns. 

Like Shanahan, I also liked what I saw from Purdy last year. But is 6 games really enough to tell that the kid can play? I'd say not at all, especially since he wasn't asked to do much in 4 of those 6 games as the team was winning big and only need him to throw the ball 20-26 times. 

The elbow ailment only further complicates matters. Tommy John Surgery is something that KO's MLB Pitchers for at least a year and we're supposed to just trust that Purdy is going to be fine after roughly 7 months just because he throws the ball differently and with less velocity than a baseball player?  What if he gets under center has no zip on the ball and his accuracy shits the bed because his touch isn't there? And considering how little of an investment they truly made in Purdy, what would stop them from putting in Sam Darnold if that were the case? He could run Shanahan's offense just as easily and his mobility would actually make him a threat to keep some of the RPO's himself as well as make some more challenging throws.

This is all a way of saying that the honeymoon is over for Purdy. There's expectations for him to do big things now and he has to try and retain the starting job on a top NFC Contender for a notoriously fickle head coach while coming off a major injury that he suffered in late January. That's a lot of fucking pressure to put on a 23-year old shoulders and how he ends up handling it will say a lot about he truly is as a player.      

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Health of Christian McCaffery

The whole part of the Purdy equation that isn't getting enough attention is McCaffery. By the time #13 got into the lineup, McCaffery had gotten acclimated to Shanahan's offense and started to really cook . 4 of his 5 100+ scrimmage YD performances in a 49er uniform last season came during Purdy's run at QB and he scored at least 1 TD in all 6 games Purdy earned substantial playing time. Having a weapon like that out of the backfield makes the NFL acclimation process much easier and smoother than it typically it would be for a rookie stepping into the situation that Purdy was thrust into. 

As Panthers fans know all too well, the trouble with having McCaffery serve as the engine of the offense is that he has a tendency to get dinged up. 2022 was actually the 1st time since 2019 that the star back came out of a season unscathed. And as he enters his age 27 season set to take another 25+ touch per game workload, the risk of him getting hurt again is pretty damn high. 

With all of the uncertainty around Purdy's health and ability to make all of the throws he could a year ago right now, McCaffery's ability to stay healthy is even more imperative than it usually would be. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are great players and all, but their playmaking productivity can be replicated elsewhere if they get hurt. The same can not be said about McCaffery. He can take handoffs to the house, serve as a check-down safety valve when other receivers aren't open downfield or even run deep routes when called upon. He is a special, versatile player that changes the dynamic of the entire offense when he's out there-which is exactly why the 49ers traded for him in the first place despite  having the aforementioned collection of talented pass-catchers and a decent backfield platoon headed up by Elijah Mitchell already on the roster. Regardless of whether its Purdy, Darnold or Brandon F'n Allen handling the snaps at QB, McCaffery will be the focal point of the offense whenever he's out there and as long as that's the case, Shanhan and co. will be in fine shape.      

Bottom Line:

As long as Christian McCaffery stays healthy and the defense remains elite under the guidance of new DC Steve Wilks, the 49ers will have an excellence chance of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Seattle Seahawks

2022 Record: 10-7 (2nd in NFC West)

Head Coach: Pete Carroll (14th season)

Notable Additions: ILB Bobby Wagner, DE Dre'Mont Jones, S Julian Love

Notable Departures: S Ryan Neal, ILB Cody Barton, RB Rashaad Penny

Biggest Reason for Excitement: The 2023 Draft Class

After a string of drafts from 2017-2021 that didn't produce many key contributors, John Schneider selected what was arguably the most immediately impactful draft class of any team in the NFL in 2022. Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas served as the teams starting tackle duo and held up better than most of their fellow rookies at the position, Kenneth Walker III started 11 games and ended up rushing for 1,050 YDS on 228 carries, Boye Mafe logged 26 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 QB hits and 8 pressures on just 424 defensive snaps as a rotational edge rusher and Tariq Woolen looks like he might just be the next great Seahawks DB selected by Schneider on Day 3 of the draft by cementing himself as their new top corner right away with his strong play (16 passes defensed, 51.5 CMP% allowed, 6 INT's-which was tied with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Justin Simmons and C.J. Gardner-Johnson for most in the league).

Based on nothing but the always infallible projections, Schneider could be making it back-to-back instantly impactful draft classes in 2023. Devon Witherspoon's combination of ball skills, discipline    and physicality gave him the most lockdown potential of any corner in the draft and pairing him with Woolen could give them a mighty scary corner tandem for the forseeable future, Jaxon Smith-Njgiba's crafty route-running and YAC ability should allow him to slot in nicely alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Derrick Hall could make for another explosive, athletic addition to their pass-rushing arsenal and with his burst, power and pass-catching upside, Zach Charbonett could prove to be an excellent complement to Walker in the backfield. And those are just the players they took in the first three rounds! Analytics nerds and Seahawks fans may spontaneously combust if any of the Day 3 picks (G Anthony Bradford, DT Cameron Young, DE Mike Morris, C Olsegun Oluwatimi, CB Kyu Blu Kelly, S Jerrick Reed II, RB Kenny McIntosh) breakout or undrafted WR Jake Bobo's strong preseason performances translates to regular season productivity. 

While their impact is clearly TBD, the opportunity for a lot of these guys to play significant early snaps seems to be pretty much settled. Witherspoon and Smith-Njgiba will both start if they're healthy enough to play on Sunday while Charbonett, Hall, Young and Morris should keep busy as key rotational players. Identifying players that fit their system then trusting them to play right away is a key part of why Schneider and Pete Caroll have fielded consistently competitive teams during their time with the Seahawks and this group appears to have what it takes to extend that streak.        

Biggest Reason for Concern: The Prospect of Geno Smith Regressing

What a victory lap 2022 was for Geno Smith. The journeyman veteran that had been on the end of many a punchline during his inaugural 8 NFL seasons got his 1st opportunity to start since his 2nd year in the league with the Jets in 2014 and took full advantage of it by throwing for 4,282 YDS, 30 TD's and 11 INT's while completing a league-high 69.8% of his passes and adding another 366 YDS and a TD with his legs, and eventually leading the Seahawks to the playoffs (with some help from the Lions in the final game of the season). His efforts earned him Comeback Player of the Year and also vindicated Carroll and Schneider's decision to hand him the starting job after they moved on from Russell Wilson.

Smith-who was on a 1-year deal for last season-re-signed with the Seahawks in March for 3 years/$75 mil/$27.3 mil guaranteed. The deal was a good one for both sides as Smith was finally able to cash out at 32 going on 33 and the Seahawks structured the deal in a way where they can cut bait without ending up in cap jail if he underperforms.

The latter portion of that previous sentence is particularly pertinent since the prospect of Smith regressing in 2023 is very real. For all of the great stuff that he did last season, it's hard to ignore the dip in play he experienced from mid-November through January. Over the final 8 games of the 2022 campaign, Smith chucked 7 INT's, threw for under 240 YDS 4 times and lead the 'Hawks to a 3-5 record. He did have a pair of brilliant performances against the Rams and Raiders mixed in there as well, but the bad definitely outweighed the good during this crucial stretch of the slate.  

It's also the not greatest sign in the world that they also felt compelled to re-sign Drew Lock in free agency. While the Seahawks do have a track record of retaining backups long-term in order to maintain some continuity in their offense if they're forced into the lineup, giving said backup a $4 mil deal that could get up to $7.5 mil if the incentives are met is going above and beyond for them. Could this just be the Seahawks way of getting another look at a QB that's on the cusp of entering his prime after he took zero snaps in the regular season last year? Of course, but there's tea leaves to be read there that indicate that they don't have full confidence in Smith. 

Despite these concerns, Smith does have some things working in his favor. The offensive line should improve as Cross and Lucas enter year #2 and their bottom-performing lineman are no longer around (Austin Blythe retired and Gabe Jackson was cut) and are being replaced by free agent pickup Evan Brown and longtime Seahawk backup/spot starter Phil Haynes-who both outplayed their departed counterparts last year, Smith-Njigba should provide him with another viable, versatile option in the passing game beyond Metcalf and Lockett and most importantly, he's already proven he can succeed in Shane Waldron's offense. Plus, Smith demonstrated last year that he's a fighter and it would be a shock if he started to get comfortable after 1 big paycheck and didn't do everything he could to maintain the starting job and continue to succeed in Seattle.     

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Finally Fixing Their Defense

Following the end of the Legion of the Boom-era, the Seahawks have had a brutal time trying to rebuild their defense. They haven't had a defense that has ranked in the top of the half of the league in both scoring defense and YDS allowed since 2018 and it's been a couple years longer since they've had one that ranked in the top 5 in both categories. Clint Hurtt couldn't put a stop to their streak of poor defenses in his 1st year as DC in 2022 as the Seahawks actually managed to post the worst scoring defense (25th) and 2nd worst YDS allowed finishes (26th) of the Carroll-era. Despite those dismal stats, there were some bright spots as their secondary led by Woolen, Quandre Diggs and the now-departed Ryan Neal played pretty well for most of the year and the pass-rush proved to be a pleasant surprise notching 45 sacks on the year (tied for 7th most in the league).

Hurtt-who previously served as the 'Hawks assistant head coach/DL coach from 2016-2021-has the full backing of Carroll as he and his entire staff are all returning for 2023. So where can Hurtt and his staff focus their coaching efforts to try and actively improve this group and thus, potentially extend their time with the Seahawks? A good place to start would be their wretched run defense that ranked 30th in the league last season. The encouraging news is that they have a completely new starting defensive line this season and Seahawks legend Bobby Wagner is back at inside linebacker after a 1 year vacation in LA. The not-so-encouraging news is that Dre'Mont Jones and Jarran Reed might be even worse run defenders than any of the guys they were replacing and their other new starting defensive end is the famously unreliable Mario Edwards Jr. Some vast major improvements are going to have to be made for this run D to exit the bottom 10 of the league this year.

Their most likely path to overall improvement will come with the continued growth of their youth-driven secondary. Woolen is shockingly still learning the position after making the leap from WR in 2020 and should only become more confident and refined back there as times goes on, Mike Jackson Sr. did a serviceable job of holding down the #2 outside corner job in his 1st season as a pro starter in 2022, free agent pickup Julian Love is coming off his best year as a pro with the Giants as he finally seems to be taking to the safety position after an initially rough transition from corner and Witherspoon should represent a huge upgrade in coverage over Coby Bryant-who is ironically being switched to safety this season-in the slot. An improvement from these guys alongside continued strong ballhawking efforts from Diggs should make this a physical, takeaway-happy group that is tough to throw on at all levels of the field. 

Pass-rush is the final piece of the puzzle and that's the one that provides the least concern at the moment. Hurtt loves to dial up blitzes and as last year's sack totals proved, his team can deliver. Giving Mafe more responsibility in year #2 (he's set to start at LOLB), retaining 2022 team co-sack leader Uchenna Nwosu on a long-term basis after a career year and adding a pair of solid interior pass-rushers in free agency in Jones and Reed should only make this group even stronger and perhaps even allow them to flirt with a top 5 finish in total sacks.

Would an improved secondary and continued strong efforts as a pass-rush be enough to make this group good? It's hard to say right now, but it's the only realistic path the Seahawks have to achieve their desired turnaround and that's really all that matters.       

Bottom Line:

The Seahawks possess a steadiness and stability that is particularly uncommon in the wild west that is the NFC. I expect those very things to be the catalyst that powers them past most, if not all of the conference's bubble teams and allows them to return to the playoffs for the 11th time in 14 seasons under Carroll.   

Predicted Standings:

1.San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

2.Seattle Seahawks (10-7)

3.Los Angeles Rams (5-12)

4.Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

Monday, September 4, 2023

2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1

1.Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 opponent: Detroit Lions

2.Philadelphia Eagles Week 1 opponent: New England Patriots

3.San Francisco 49ers Week 1 opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers

4.Cincinnati Bengals Week 1 opponent: Cleveland Browns

5.Buffalo Bills Week 1 opponent: New York Jets

6.Dallas Cowboys Week 1 opponent: New York Giants

7.Jacksonville Jaguars Week 1 opponent: Indianapolis Colts

8.Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 opponent: Miami Dolphins

9.Miami Dolphins Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Chargers

10.Minnesota Vikings Week 1 opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

11.Baltimore Ravens Week 1 opponent: Houston Texans

12.Seattle Seahawks Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Rams

13.New York Giants Week 1 opponent: Dallas Cowboys

14.Detroit Lions Week 1 opponent: Kansas City Chiefs

15.New York Jets Week 1 opponent: Buffalo Bills

16.Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 opponent: San Francisco 49ers

17.New Orleans Saints Week 1 opponent: Tennessee Titans

18.New England Patriots Week 1 opponent: Philadelphia Eagles

19.Cleveland Browns Week 1 opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

20.Atlanta Falcons Week 1 opponent: Carolina Panthers

21.Tennessee Titans Week 1 opponent: New Orleans Saints

22.Washington Commanders Week 1 opponent: Arizona Cardinals 

23.Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 opponent: Denver Broncos

24.Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 opponent: Minnesota Vikings

25.Green Bay Packers Week 1 opponent: Chicago Bears

26.Chicago Bears Week 1 opponent: Green Bay Packers

27.Denver Broncos Week 1 opponent: Las Vegas Raiders

28.Carolina Panthers Week 1 opponent: Atlanta Falcons

29.Los Angeles Rams Week 1 opponent: Seattle Seahawks

30.Indianapolis Colts  Week 1 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars

31.Houston Texans Week 1 opponent: Baltimore Ravens

32.Arizona Cardinals Week 1 opponent: Washington Commanders

Friday, September 1, 2023

2022 in Movies: Revisited

If nothing else, the movie edition of 2022 revisited is much less boring than the music one. Some prolonged contemplation abut what films stuck with me the most all these months later along with finally seeing a few excellent films  (All Quiet on the Western Front, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Argentina, 1985) and a couple of really shit ones (Easter Sunday, The Good House) that I missed out on prior to finalizing my year-end lists in January inspired quite a bit of movement. 

My seemingly incurable case of Babylon fever has elevated it to the point where it's now flirting with the top 10 for the year (it will probably get there by Halloween), the MCU titles all backslid save for one notable exception and a single film even managed to fall out of the top 10! Other winners and losers from this revaluation include both of Ti West's films, an R-rated action movie that was strategically released last December and an indie darling that finally started to click with me a little bit after it initially left me somewhat cold.  Below, you'll find my entire revamped 2022 movie rankings complete with grades and where it ranked on the initial year-end list in January.  Enjoy.  

148.(132) Moonfall (D-)

147.(131) Memory (D-)

146.(130) White Noise (D)

145.(new) Easter Sunday (D)

144.(129) The Contractor (D)

143.(127) Three Thousand Years of Longing (D)

142.(126) Morbius (D+)

141.(128) Elvis (D+)

140.(new) The Good House (D+)

139.(125) Sundown (D+)

138.(124) Last Seen Alive (C-)

137.(123) End of the Road (C-)

136.(122) Dog (C-)

135.(121) Texas Chainsaw Massacre (C-)

134.(120) The Whale (C-)

133.(117) All the Old Knives (C)

132.(119) Black Adam (C)

131.(115) Lou (C)

130.(118) Blacklight (C)

129.(116) Home Team (C)

128.(114) Good Mourning (C)

127.(113) Fire of Love (C)

126.(112) Run Sweetheart Run (C)

125.(111) Luckiest Girl Alive (C)

124.(new) Spoiler Alert (C)

123.(109) The Bubble (C)

122.(110) Empire of Light (C)

121.(new) A Love Song (C)

120.(108) Where the Crawdads Sing (C+)

119.(new) Hit the Road (C+)

118.(107) Death on the Nile (C+)

117.(106) Minions: The Rise of Gru (C+)

116.(105) The Man from Toronto (C+)

115.(104) God's Country (C+)

114.(103) Don't Worry Darling (C+)

113.(new) Thirteen Lives (C+)

112.(new) A Man Called Otto (C+)

111.(102) Studio 666 (B-)

110.(101) Deep Water (B-)

109.(100) Me Time (B-)

108.(99) Crush (B-)

107.(98) Marry Me (B-)

106.(97) Turning Red (B-)

105.(96) The Forgiven (B-)

104.(95) Ticket to Paradise (B-)

103.(94) She Said (B-)

102.(new) Alice, Darling (B-)

101.(93) Samaritan (B-)

100.(new) Call Jane (B-)

99.(92) The Adam Project (B-)

98.(91) Decision to Leave (B-)

97.(90) Uncharted (B-)

96.(89) Senior Year (B-)

95.(88) Amsterdam (B-)

94.(new) Strange World (B-)

93.(87) The Invitation (B-)

92.(86) TAR (B-)

91.(85) The Princess (B-)

90.(84) Lightyear (B-)

89.(83) DC League of Superpets (B-)

88.(new) The Wonder (B-)

87.(new) Triangle of Sadness (B-)

86.(81) Crimes of the Future (B-)

85.(80) Something from Tiffany's (B-)

84.(79) Do Revenge (B-)

83.(78) Fall (B-)

82.(77) The Lost City (B)

81.(76) Fire Island (B)

80.(75) Beast (B)

79.(74) I Want You Back (B)

78.(73) Jurassic World Dominion (B)

77.(72) Metal Lords (B)

76.(71) Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (B)

75.(64) The Redeem Team (B)

74.(70) Day Shift (B)

73.(69) The 355 (B)

72.(68) The Fallout (B)

71.(67) The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (B)

70.(66) The Gray Man (B)

69.(65) Chip'n Dale: Rescue Rangers (B)

68.(63) Confess, Fletch (B)

67.(62) Clerks III (B)

66.(61) Women Talking (B)

65.(82) Aftersun (B)

64.(59) Fresh (B)

63.(58) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (B)

62.(57) The Woman King (B)

61.(60) The Bad Guys (B)

60.(56) The Fabelmans (B)

59.(55) Thor: Love and Thunder (B)

58.(new) The Good Nurse (B)

57.(54) Dual (B)

56.(53) The Outfit (B)

55.(52) See How They Run (B)

54.(51) Nanny (B)

53.(50) Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (B)

52.(49) Halloween Ends (B)

51.(48) RRR (B)

50.(47) Top Gun: Maverick (B)

49.(46) The Big 4 (B)

48.(45) No Exit (B)

47.(44) KIMI (B)

46.(43) The Worst Person in the World (B)

45.(42) Armageddon Time (B)

44.(41) Barbarian (B)

43.(40) Hustle (B)

42.(39) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (B+)

41.(38) Spiderhead (B+)

40.(37) Till (B+)

39.(36) Breaking (B+)

38.(35) Not Okay (B+)

37.(33) The Inspection (B+)

36.(32) The Northman (B+)

35.(26) Violent Night (B+)

34.(34) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (B+)

33.(31) On the Count of Three (B+)

32.(new) Argentina, 1985 (B+)

31.(30) Montana Story (B+)

30.(29) Bullet Train (B+)

29.(25) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (B+)

28.(27) Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. (B+)

27.(24) Bros (B+)

26.(28) Pearl (B+)

25.(new) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (B+)

24.(23) The Menu (B+)

23.(22) Prey (B+)

22.(21) Bones and All (B+)

21.(20) Men (B+)

20.(19) Look at Me: XXXTENTACTION (B+)

19.(18) Bodies Bodies Bodies (B+)

18.(16) The Black Phone (B+)

17.(new) All Quiet on the Western Front (B+)

16.(15) Smile (B+)

15.(14) Pleasure (B+)

14.(13) Emily the Criminal (B+)

13.(12) Watcher (B+)

12.(7) Vengeance (A-)

11.(17) Babylon (A-)

10.(11) Everything Everywhere All at Once (A-)

9.(10) X (A-)

8.(9) Scream (A-)

7.(8) Emergency (A-)

6.(6) Jackass Forever (A)

5.(5) Ambulance (A)

4.(4) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (A)

3.(3) The Banshees of Inisherin (A)

2.(2) Nope (A)

1.(1) The Batman (A+)