2023 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans

2022 Record: 3-13-1 (4th in AFC South)

Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans (1st season)

Notable Additions: G Shaq Mason, S Jimmie Ward, TE Dalton Schultz

Notable Departures: WR Brandin Cooks, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, TE Jordan Akins

Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Potential for Some Stability 

What transpired in Houston over the past 2 seasons was some of the most ridiculous shit any NFL team has pulled in recent memory. Due to a lack of draft picks, the exit of Deshaun Watson and the dysfunction at the top of their organization with owner Cal McNair and his (now former) liaison Jack Easterby, the Texans effectively just threw a team together with no intention of winning in back-to-back seasons. The collateral damage from this strategy were the two sacrificial lambs they had serve as head coaches for this unserious operation in David Culley and Lovie Smith-who got sweet revenge for the unfair treatment both he and his former boss Culley received when he led the team to a hilariously improbable comeback win over the Colts in his final game as coach that end up costing the Texans the #1 pick in the 2023 Draft.

This bizarre, morally questionable transitional era in Texans football came to a close this offseason when they suddenly started taking their rebuilding efforts seriously. This philosophical shift became apparent the very moment they announced they'd hired DeMeco Ryans to be their new coach in January. While they admittedly had a huge built-in advantage over the rest of the field given Ryans' lengthy history with the team as a player, landing a young coach who swiftly rose through the ranks with the 49ers and was one of the most impactful assistant coaches in the league over his 2 seasons as a DC is a huge plus for an organization that has long been viewed as a horrible place to coach and play.

Ryans' hiring made an immediate impact on the type of players that were willing to come to Houston. Through a combination of trades and free agency, veterans Shaq Mason, Dalton Schultz, Sheldon Rankins, Shaq Griffin and Jimmie Ward-who played under Ryans with the 49ers- all made their way to the Texans. On top of that, left tackle Laremy Tunsil-who notably was the only vet from the previous regime who decided to stick around through all of the turmoil they've experienced in recent years-committed to the organization long-term by inking a 3-year extension in March that will keep him in Houston through the 2026 season. This sizable infusion of veteran talent is something that the Texans haven't had since at least 2019, if not 2018 and both the locker room and on-field product should really benefit because of it.

Ultimately, the top sign that the Texans were done dicking around came on draft night. GM Nick Caserio and his cohorts had not worked the board with so much purpose, aggression and clarity in there previous 2 years on the job. They finally committed to a new prospective franchise quarterback with the selection of C.J. Stroud at #2 overall and used the 1st round pick they earned from the Browns in exchange for their previous franchise QB to trade up to #3 and select the top defensive player on the board in DE Will Anderson. That's the kind of 1st round haul that has the other 31 GM's shaking their fists in disgust and crossing their fingers that these kids don't end up being as good as advertised. 

Following the big splash he made in the 1st round, Caserio went more practical in the later rounds with equally intriguing results. Juice Scruggs is a strong, athletic center who is an ideal fit for the new zone-blocking, play action-driven offense OC Bobby Slowik brought over with him from the 49ers, WR Tank Dell is a route-running technician with remarkable shiftiness in the open field who could prove to be a huge impact player in the slot if his small stature (5'8, 165 lbs) doesn't prove to be an issue in his transition to the pros and Dylan Horton is a big, powerful defensive end with violent hands that will have a chance to contribute as a situational pass-rusher right away.

Regardless of how this all shakes out, watching a real attempt to lay down the foundation for a proper rebuilding effort is an encouraging sight to see from a team whose commitment to winning has been really shaky of late.        

Biggest Reason for Concern: Nothing

Any negative outcomes are impossible for the Texans to achieve this season. After the last 2 seasons where they fielded a JV team that just didn't have what it takes to win games despite their often valiant efforts, watching a team led by legit young players and a coaching staff that will actually be here for multiple seasons will be an extremely welcome sight. There's no guarantee it's going to be pretty, but the feasible prospect of those growing pains leading to something good will be all the fuel the Texans need to take the paper bags off their heads and feel something they haven't felt watching a game since 2019: A sense of purpose. 

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Play of Their Young Players

The most exciting and problematic part of the 2023 Texans is the high volume of young players they have starting. Having so many rookies and 2nd year players in high-leverage roles doesn't tend to lead a ton of wins right away, but there have been some classic exceptions like the 2021 Bengals, 2012 Seahawks and 2012 Colts that have gone to the playoffs while having a very young corps drive the bus. Even if the 2023 Texans aren't able to reach those lofty heights, Stroud, Anderson, Scruggs, Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, Dameon Pierce and Kenyon Green hold the key to this team's fate this season. 

Nearly every corner of the team with the possible exception of run defense will be significantly dictated by what they're able to do. Stroud has to adjust to the professional game with a receiver group that doesn't have a true #1 in its ranks and an offensive line that doesn't have any proven pieces on it outside of Tunsil and Mason after having the luxury of playing exclusively with loaded squads at Ohio State. Stingley Jr, Pitre and Green are going to move past their rough rookie seasons (particularly Green who graded out as the worst guard in the football in 2022) and adapt to a new system. Anderson has a bit of an easier path to contributing right away since the Texans do have some established talent on the defensive line with Jerry Hughes, Jonathan Greenard, Maliek Collins, and Rankins, but they'll be a lot of pressure to emerge as the new leader up there in short order given his college pedigree and high draft position. This coaching staff that Ryans brought over with him (Slowik, Matt Burke, Chris Strausser, Shane Day, Cory Undlin) have accomplished some great things in their previous stops around the league and if there are as good as advertised, they'll unlock some positive things this year that'll have these young players ready to lead this Texans team moving forward.

Bottom Line:

It'll likely be another rough year for the Texans as they begin their commitment to rebuilding. However, they are least finally trying to win again-which will make this season considerably less painful than the past 3 where that wasn't the case.

Indianapolis Colts 

2022 Record: 4-12-1 (3rd in AFC South)

Head Coach: Shane Steichen (1st season)

Notable Additions: K Matt Gay, DE Samson Ebukam, QB Gardner Minshew

Notable Departures: OLB Bobby Okereke, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Matt Ryan

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Jim Irsay and Chris Ballard Finally Overcame Their Addiction to Bringing in Veteran Quarterbacks Who Only Lasted 1 Season in Indy and Drafted A Potential Franchise QB

The Colts have yet to recover from Andrew Luck's sudden retirement right before the start of the regular season in 2019. After having no choice but to movie forward with expected backup Jacoby Brissett that year, the Colts chose to embrace a strategy of chasing after a different veteran quarterback each season. In 2020, it worked just fine for them as Phillip Rivers was respectable enough in his final NFL season to lead them to an 11-5 season that ended in a narrow loss to the Bills on Wild Card Weekend. 2021 was a little bit sketchier as the Colts tried to have Frank Reich successfully revive the career of his old friend Carson Wentz in the same system that made him a borderline MVP candidate with the Eagles in 2017 and honestly, it was going alright until Wentz' awful play caused them to drop the final 2 games of the season and narrowly miss the playoffs. 

Wentz's bad finish in 2021 was small potatoes compared to what his replacement Matt Ryan did in 2022. The 2016 NFL MVP looked like he had aged about 20 years between the end of 2021 and the start of 2022 as he had a season defined by questionable decisionmaking, even more questionable arm strength, taking sacks that looked like they might kill him and getting benched on two separate occasions for Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. While he's yet to officially retire from the league, saying that Ryan has played his last snap in the NFL seems like a pretty safe bet after the bleak horrors that transpired last year.     

Watching Ryan completely flounder out there last season marked the point where this approach to handling the QB position had to be abandoned completely. I'm sure this was a difficult concession for Jim Irsay and Chris Ballard to make as they clearly loved doing it so much and while they had to've kicked around the idea of signing Cam Newton or trying to convince Ryan Fitzpatrick to come out of retirement before deciding to pursue a QB in the draft, they made the right decision by using their heads over their hearts.

As expected since they were picking behind both the Panthers and Texans, the Colts ended up with the most popular pick for the draft's #3 QB in league circles: Anthony Richardson. What Richardson lacks in polish and experience as a 1-year starter in a run-heavy offense at the University of Florida, he makes up for with one of the most astounding athletic profiles the league has ever seen at the position. At 6'4, 255 lbs with 4.4 speed, he has the explosive burst of Lamar Jackson in the rushing game in the frame of Cam Newton and while he struggled with accuracy in a big way in college-completing just 53.8% of his passes during 2022-his arm strength and ability to get the ball out at a variety of unusual angles is top-notch. Since Richardson has already been named the starter over veteran free agent signing Gardner Minshew after a couple weeks of training camp, the team clearly has confidence in his ability to contribute right away. At the bare minimum, Richardson will provide some splash plays that alluded this team in a big way during their nightmarish 2022 season and get some much-needed reps as he tries to refine his incredible physical tools into a well-rounded game. 

Biggest Reason for Concern: The Jonathan Taylor Situation

This offseason saw a long-brewing crisis in the NFL finally reach its boiling point: Nobody wants to ink running backs to long-term, big money deals anymore. The poor substantial investments that have been made in the likes of Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara in recent years has launched a new wave of caution among teams who are negotiating with star backs, which has reset the market in a huge way.

 Franchise tag recipients Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley failed to land long-term deals from their respective teams. Dalvin Cook and Elliott himself sat on the unemployment for months before signing 1-year deals with the Jets and Patriots on Monday. There are some respected vets out there such as Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt are still looking for work. Derrick Henry was floated out in trades, but there were no takers since a longtime workhorse back whose owed $10.5 mil this season, will turn 30 in January and is set to enter free agency next March is not worth giving up any important draft picks for. Miles Sanders earned the top multi-year deal among veteran free agents this offseason and his contract has a max value of just $25.4 mil over 4 years.

Naturally, RB's have felt compelled to chirp about their rate of pay and general treatment in the league after watching the events of the past several months transpire. Chief among the aggravated RB's is Jonathan Taylor. This isn't particularly surprising as Taylor is entering the final year of his rookie deal this season and as the 2021 rushing champion who has served as a vital part of the Colts offense since the moment he entered the league in 2020, stands to be among the highest paid RB's in the league.

Taylor eventually took these concerns to Irsay when he broached the topic of an extension. This is when all hell started to break loose. Basically, Taylor wasn't happy with how his talk with Irsay went and requested a trade from the Colts. Irsay then publicly responded to Taylor by saying he won't be traded under any circumstances this season. Taylor retaliated by sitting out of practice for the past couple weeks with a "back injury" and just yesterday, left the team to tend to a "personal matter" and will be back to "rehab" shortly. 

Taylor's status will be something to closely monitor moving forward. If the Colts are adamant about not trading him and Taylor is pissed about this decision, it won't be advantageous for him to half-ass his play since he's coming off a comparatively bad 2022 campaign (861 Rushing YDS and 4 TD's on 192 carries in 11 games) where he suffered a season-ending ankle injury and struggled to produce due to a combination of choppy offensive line play, a non-existent passing attack and having to face stacked boxes on nearly every play. However, he could chose to sit out once the season starts or at least, not feel compelled to finish runs the way he did during his All-Pro campaign in 2021. Given Richardson's rawness and the lack of insurance behind him now that Zack Moss is out indefinitely with a broken arm, the Colts offense can not afford to be without an engaged, healthy Taylor this season.                

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Shane Steichen Bringing the Offensive Fireworks He Produced in Philly to Indy

In a bit of a break from the recent mold, this head coaching cycle wasn't a great one for up-and-coming offensive wizkids. This is likely just a fluke as DeMeco Ryans marked the rare instance of a defensive coach being the most sought-after coordinator candidate and the presence of successful established coaches in Sean Payton and Frank Reich in the field. The lone new hire that fell under that under the new offensive hotshot umbrella is Shane Steichen and there's a damn good reason for it, he did an incredible job running the Eagles offense over the 2 years. What he did to supercharge Jalen Hurts' development as both a rusher and passer and turn an offense that was tail-spinning at the end of Doug Pederson's tenure into the one of the league's most explosive, efficient units was nothing short of staggering.  

Especially now we know that Richardson is going to be running the offense, Steichen feels like the ideal hire. While he won't be working with the staggering amount of weaponry and top-notch offensive line he had with the Eagles, he does have enough firepower here to successfully implement his system. Richardson's dual-threat ability will grant Stiechen the freedom to run RPO's, designed runs and play-action passes while also helping him improve as a passer by giving him easy, schemed-up throws that allow him to work on his accuracy and touch without turning the offense into a strictly dink-and-dunk operation, Taylor can be utilized as an every-down back without having to deal with the threat of constant stacked boxes due to Richardson being a major threat on the ground himself and their pass-catching group of Michael Pittman Jr./Alec Pierce/rookie Josh Downs/Isaiah McKenzie/Jelani Woods has enough versatility and skill in it to make plays all over the field. The Eagles group improved from 26th to the 12th in scoring offense and 24th to 14th in total offense after Steichen got to Philly in 2021. That type of improvement is a completely realistic expectation to have for this Colts group-who finished in 30th in scoring and 27th in total yards in 2022-that was in pretty decent shape overall prior to their cartoonishly awful 2022 campaign where everything that could go wrong did.

Bottom Line:

If Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson can improve the offense and their so-so defense can remain more or less the same, the Colts should be a solid team with the potential to make the playoffs.       

Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 Record: 9-8 (1st in AFC South)

Head Coach: Doug Pederson (2nd season)

Notable Additions: K Brandon McManus, T Josh Wells, RB D'Ernest Johnson

Notable Departures: T Jawaan Taylor, CB Shaq Griffin, OLB Arden Key

Biggest Reason for Excitement: They're Suddenly Legit Contenders

Hot off an incredible 7-2 run to end the 2022 season, the outlook is bright and expectations are high in Duval County. And rightfully so, the rebuild timeline is now at least a couple years ahead of schedule after Doug Pederson cleaned up all of the chaos and destruction Urban Meyer's clown ass caused with a frankly shocking degree of speed and proficiency. Trevor Lawrence appears to be on track to blossom into the franchise QB he's long been billed to be, they're adding a potential legit #1 WR in Calvin Ridley-who posted a 90 REC/1,374 YDS/9 TD line during his last full season in 2020- to a receiving corps that was full of pleasant surprises (Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones) last year and their secondary could be on the verge of turning into an elite group after breakout seasons from 2021 draft picks Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco last year. They might not be on the level of the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills yet, but this Jaguars team deserves to be taken seriously entering 2023 and it wouldn't be at all surprising if they became a top-tier contender this year.          

Biggest Reason for Concern: Offensive Line

Offensive line play wasn't a contributing factor to the Jags late season turnaround as the group was comfortably below average yet not quite completely inept all year long. Entering 2023, this group could begin trending towards inept. Jawaan Taylor jumped ship to Kansas City in free agency-which leaves a sizable gap at right tackle as he was their best pass-protector (and ironically, their worst run-blocker) and they received an extra kick in the dick when their left tackle Cam Robinson-who is coming off a torn meniscus-got popped for PED's and earned a 4-game suspension. While Robinson is suspended to start the year, they're expected to roll out Walker Little-who did an alright job filling in for Robinson at the end of 2022, but has only logged 6 total starts in 2 NFL seasons and 1st round pick Anton Harrison at the tackle spot-who put together a solid career at Oklahoma, but might not have the ideal athleticism or strength to hold up as a pro tackle. At the end of the day, Robinson and Taylor weren't all that great as a tackle pairing and it's going to take some pretty sorry play from Little and Harrison to be much of a downgrade. 

What feels like the primary problem area of the Jags offensive line is on the interior. This is really the only spot on their roster where their decision to not make any meaningful investments at the position doesn't make sense. Sticking with Brandon Scherff-who had an ugly inaugural season that reinforced why the Commanders had no problem letting him go-is one thing since they paid him a bunch in free agency last year, but why are Ben Bartch and Luke Fortner viewed as entrenched starters? Bartch hasn't shown much of anything positive in 17 starts over 3 NFL seasons and Fortner was a complete liability in the running game while also struggling quite a bit in pass-protection in his terrible rookie campaign in 2022. Not introducing the threat of competition and/or simply adding depth creates a potentially ugly situation where they have zero insurance for lineman with a history of struggling and are basically left to just cross their fingers that they can find somebody on the bottom of the depth chart to serve as a Band-Aid for guys that shouldn't been trusted to play the position in the first place.

There's a very conceivable scenario where this group plays bad enough to cost them their ability to win a Super Bowl, so people are going to have to cross their fingers that Scherff gets his mojo back, Robinson doesn't miss a beat when he returns to the lineup and OL coach Phil Rauscher can work some magic with the rest of these guys to prevent crippling disaster from happening.         

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Trevor Lawrence Keeping Up the Level of Play He Displayed Down the Stretch

Most of the shining moments of Trevor Lawrence's sophomore campaign came during the playoff-clinching stretch from Week 12-18 where he led the Jaguars to 6-1 record. During this frame, Lawrence threw for 1,779 YDS, 12 TD's and only 2 INT's (his full regular season line was 4,113 YDS/25 TD's/8 INT's). This was the first time in his career that he looked like a franchise QB over a prolonged period of time. He commanded the huddle with poise, he consistently made the right throws and decisions regardless of how much pressure he was facing and he came up big whenever his team needed him. This is the exact player that Jaguars were expected to get when they drafted him #1 overall and with that version of Lawrence at the helm, the sky is the limit. 

There was a bit of regression on that front in the playoffs as he put together a couple of stinky performances (he was solid in the 2nd half of the Chargers game in the Wild Card Round, but that comeback was more on the horrendous play of the Chargers than anything positive Lawrence did), but he deserves some slack as it was his first time on that stage in the pros and his teammates had their share of struggle as well. Having another year in Pederson's system, further acclimating to the pro game and picking up another weapon in Ridley should provide Lawrence with a great chance to take another sizable step forward in year #3.

Bottom Line:

They were trending in a very positive direction at the end of last season and there's no reason to believe right now that they won't be able to build off that momentum in 2023.  

Tennessee Titans

2022 Record: 7-10 (2nd in AFC South)

Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (6th season)

Notable Additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, T Andre Dillard, OLB Arden Key

Notable Departures: T Taylor Lewan, C Ben Jones, WR Robert Woods

Biggest Reason for Excitement: DeAndre Hopkins Deciding to Sign With Them

Going into training camp, the Titans offense was playing with fire. After receiving approximately 90,000 touches over the past 5 seasons and his 30th birthday quickly approaching, Derrick Henry can not be relied upon to make it through the season healthy and carry the offense on his boulder-esque shoulders yet again, despite some flashes as a rookie last season, Treylon Burks hasn't done enough to prove he's a #1 receiver (and surprise surprise, he sustained an LCL sprain at practice yesterday and is expected to be sidelined for at least a few weeks) and the state of their receiver depth chart is so dire (Kyle Phillips, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chris Moore, Racey McMath) that 2nd year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has become a fantasy football sleeper darling simply because somebody needs to catch passes and his play as a rookie was downright dominant compared to the WR's listed in the parentheses above. A miracle arrived on July 24th when DeAndre Hopkins opted to sign with them over the Patriots. Boy are they lucky that Hopkins only cares about targets and money over playing for a contender because who the hell knows what this passing attack would look like without him.

Much has been made out of how Hopkins looked after he returned from his PED suspension last season, but I really don't think he played all that bad all things considered as he nabbed 66 passes for 717 YDS and 3 TD's in 9 games. The Cardinals offense just wasn't as explosive as they were in 2021 and that only become worse after Kyler Murray tore his ACL in mid-December and the husk of Colt McCoy was throwing 5-8-yard bloopers for the last handful of games of the season.

Teaming up with Ryan Tannehill (for now at least) isn't likely to lead the kind of resurgence where's he putting up numbers that are comparable to any of his 5 All-Pro seasons. However, the high target share paired with a desire to earn some of the respect in the league that he's lost over the last couple years back should be enough for him to clear 1,000 YDS and 5+ TD's. For a team that really missed A.J. Brown's contributions last season after they traded him away for reasons that remain unclear, those kinds of numbers would be a borderline godsend that makes their passing attack-which ranked 30th in the league a year ago-significantly more potent.     

Biggest Reason for Concern: Offensive Line

Calling the offensive line a point of concern might actually be an understatement. This could prove to be a full-blown, season-wrecking crisis if the Titans plan at the position goes sideways. Some change was inevitable and necessary for this group as they ranked as the worst offensive line in football a year ago. They severed ties with longtime left tackle Taylor Lewan and center Ben Jones due to a combination of injuries, age and the amount of money they were getting (both of them are still free agents), tackle Dennis Daley wasn't re-signed due to him finishing tied for the league in sacks allowed with 12 and right guard Nate Davis-who was a bright spot for them-opted to sign with the Bears over returning to Nashville in free agency. With so much changeover happening, the group has to be in a better spot right? That isn't exactly a guarantee.

 Well before a single snap was played, this new Titans OL was handed its first blow when starting right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere got suspended for gambling. Fortunately, it's only a 6-game ban since he was only disciplined for placing non-NFL bets at the team facility. Still, it's not a great situation to start the year without your starting right tackle because he couldn't wait until he got home to place a bet. Chris Hubbard is expected to start in Petit-Frere's place, which is something that should scare the hell out of Tannehill based on how bad he was during the end of his stint with the Browns.

The next strike against this group was replacing Lewan and Daley at left tackle with Andre Dillard. Dillard was famously expected to be the heir apparent to Jason Peters at left tackle with the Eagles when they selected him in the 1st round of the 2019 draft, but through bad injury luck, getting outshined at practice and suspect performances when he did play, he lost that opportunity to Jordan Mailata once Peters left the team following the 2020 season. As a result, Dillard was relegated to a backup role for most of his 4 seasons there, logging just 9 starts (only 5 of them came after his rookie season in 2019) in the 43 games he dressed for. Expecting a guy with limited game action over 4 NFL seasons and a relatively concerning injury history to be a starting left tackle is recklessly optimistic at best and downright reckless at worst.

Comparatively speaking, the interior line situation is rosy, but it's still not great. Aaron Brewer is shifting over to center after starting at left guard last year-which really isn't a good or a bad thing since he was a nondescript below average player and that was his 1st season as a full-time starter, Daniel Brunskill has a real mean streak that has produced some nasty highlight reel blocks, but was otherwise just so-so with the 49ers over the past couple years and rookie guard Peter Skoronski might prove himself to be the star of the line early on as he brings an impressive college pedigree and well-rounded technical game with him to the NFL, but if even he does flourish, that alone won't be enough to help this group avoid the dregs of the league. 

New OL coach Jason Houghtaling-who was promoted from assistant OL coach after they shitcanned Keith Carter- is going to have to work his cut for him to mold this group into something respectable, let alone good.  

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Mike Vrabel Working Some Magic

A mere 2 years ago, Vrabel was able to lead a Titans team that battled near-constant injury and COVID issues to a 12-5 record-which was good enough to give the Titans the top seed in the AFC. He's going to need to do a similarly incredible job to get this Titans group back to that place.

While injuries certainly played a factor, the 7-game losing streak the Titans closed the 2022 season on raised some serious questions about their standing in the league. Outside of their terrific front 7 and the running game when Derrick Henry is healthy, they are honestly god awful in every other area. The only move they made to change their bottom-ranked pass defense from a year ago was signing the respectable Sean Murphy-Bunting to play outside corner after only playing in the slot while with the Bucs, Tannehill took a huge step back in 2022 and it's not clear if they're planning on sticking with him all year or they're going to unleash the deeply polarizing rookie Will Levis on the world at some point and I spent the entirety of the previous two sections going over their potential problems at receiver and along the offensive line. These are deficiencies that are going to take some serious coaching magic to overcome. Is Vrabel capable of doing it? Of course. He's elevated this team for the majority of his tenure and is one of the best tacticians in the league. At the same time, he's never had a roster with this many flaws before and coaching can only go so far to counteract a lack of talent at key positions.      

Bottom Line:

Every team in the AFC South is trending in a positive direction except for them and their roster is arguably an even bigger mess than it was a year ago. Short of some shocking massive improvements to their problem areas, it's going to take a healthy Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins and their front 7 playing their ass off and some good fortune for them to be competitive. 

Predicted Standings:

1.Jackosoville Jaguars (11-6)

2.Indianapolis Colts (9-8)

3.Tennessee Titans (6-11)

4.Houston Texans (5-12)

Movie Review: Gran Turismo

(Note: Gran Turismo doesn't open wide until the 24th, but Sony held sneak previews of it over the weekend and will be holding 4 more this Friday-Sunday.)

Considering how massive the PlayStation brand is to Sony's business portfolio, it's kind of shocking how little their film and television studio has utilized it. Believe it or not, last year's long-in-development film version of Uncharted was the first adaptation of one of their own video games that Sony had ever released. Their efforts have intensified this year as they brought The Last of Us and Twisted Metal to the small screen via HBO and Peacock respectively and there are adaptations of God of War, Ghosts of Tsuhima and Horizon that were in various stages of development prior to the start of the WGA strikes in May. 

Rounding out a busy year for Sony's PlayStation-inspired endeavors is Gran Turismo-which uses the popular racing simulator as a way to tell the pretty incredible story of how Jann Mardenborough went from playing Gran Turismo at his parents' house in Cardiff, Wales to becoming a professional racer in the Super GT series within a year's time. 

While there are clearly plenty of liberties taken by director Neil Blomkamp (District 9, Elysium) and the writing duo of Jason Hall (American Sniper, Thank You for Service) and Zach Baylin (Creed III, King Richard) to turn Mardenborough's improbable journey into a classic Hollywood sports underdog narrative, the odds that were stacked against him are so massive that it makes this fantastical dramazation easy to buy into. Mardenborough ended up beating out about 90,000 people to win a competition in 2011 called GT Academy-that granted the best Gran Turismo players in the world a chance to compete for the chance to join Nissan's GT team by putting them through an intensive training program after they posted a high-enough qualifying score in the game. Mardenborough ultimately became one of only 22 people to participate in the GT Academy-which ran from 2008 until 2016-to become a professional racer and at just 19 year old at the time of the competition, he was the youngest-ever winner in the program's history. . Going from being elite at a racing video game to becoming an actual successful professional race car driver is something that sounds like it could only happen in a movie (imagine if somebody went from being good at Madden or NBA2K to the NFL or NBA without any prior experience playing the sport) and no amount of fictionalizing or distorting the details of Mardenborough's jump from racing on a screen to racing on a track can take away from inherently remarkable his story is.

Further aiding the successful mythologizing of Mardenborough is Gran Turismo's strong execution of its conventional playbook. Archie Madekwe (Midsommar, Apple TV+'s See) makes Mardenborough the ideal underdog to root for by portraying him as a fiercely determined, endlessly likable guy who is hungry to make his dream of becoming a professional race come true despite the constant nagging from his parents (Djimon Honsou, Geri Halliwell-Horner) to pursue a more realistic career path. The initially frosty relationship that slowly becomes familial that Mardenborough develops with his chief engineer/trainer/mentor Jack Salter (David Harbour-whose in full wildly charismatic, scene-stealing character actor mode here) once Salter realizes Mardenborough is a naturally gifted racer gives the movie a sincere heart that elevates the stakes and makes the emotional beats pay off. And of course the racing scenes-outside of a few goofy-looking CGI shots that were used to help depict crashes-makes for an electrifying main event that throws the audience right into the center of the action with its visceral sound design and dynamic cinematography that cleverly stitches together drone shots, in-car closeups and medium shots from cameras placed on various parts of the track to cover nearly conceivable angle of a GT/F1 race. Whatever debts Gran Turismo owes movies like Rocky, Rudy or even Ford v. Ferrari never crossed my mind as I was too invested in these characters and what happened to them on-and-off-the track to break down its similarities to other sports films and for me at least, that's really all that matters. 

As the summer movie season winds down and a fall season filled with the high potential of more significant release date shifts on account of Hollywood's ongoing labor issues quickly approaches, Gran Turismo really is the perfect movie at the perfect time. It's a rousing piece of feel-good blockbuster entertainment that flies by and plays great with a crowd and it very well could be a bit before another movie like it arrives at the multiplex. If sports movies are your bag, Gran Turismo is well worth the trip to the theater to experience.                   

Grade: B

2023 NFL Preview: NFC North

Chicago Bears

2023 Record: 3-14 (4th in NFC North)

Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (2nd season)

Notable Additions: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, OLB T.J. Edwards, G Nate Davis

Notable Departures: RB David Montgomery, T Riley Reiff,  ILB Nicholas Morrow

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Ryan Poles Invested Big Time in the Team

When Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles were brought in as the new head coach and general manager of the Bears in January 2022, the deal was that their 1st season was going to be a transition year where they focused on developing young players in order to fully commit to their rebuilding efforts and in 2023 once they acquired a sizable amount of cap space upon all the dead money from the likes of Khalil Mack, Nick Foles and Danny Treavathan's clearing the books, they would be rather aggressive with their roster-building. They delivered on their promise

While I wasn't the biggest fan of every move they made (trading Roquan Smith on the grounds of him being too expensive for an inside linebacker then turning around and signing the inferior Tremaine Edmunds to a deal that's not too far off from what Smith got from the Ravens makes zero sense, being the latest team to take the cheese on Yannick Ngakoue and hand him 10+ mil to pick up 9 sacks on 1,200 pass-rushing attempts reeks of desperation at a crucial spot on the field), Poles deserves credit for attacking as many problem areas for this team as possible with his moves. The biggest, most important and quite frankly stunning move he was able to swing was landing D.J. Moore from the Panthers as part of the trade that sent the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft to Carolina. Moore is the legit #1 receiver that Justin Fields has been missing since he got to Chicago in 2021. He possesses the rare, coveted combo of speed, route-running and YAC ability that allows him to make plays in a variety of ways at different spots on the field, can line up in the slot or on the outside and his ability to put up 3 straight 1,100+ YD seasons in Carolina from 2019-21 with a QB carousel that was primarily led by Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker-who actually followed him to Chicago and is expected to serve as Fields backup-is an impressive accomplishment that deserves more love. Best of all, he's still only 26 years old and is under the contract for the next 3 seasons. If Moore can be the same player he was in Carolina with the Bears, Fields is going to be one happy camper when he drops backs to pass.

Other notable veteran pickups included T.J. Edwards-who has quietly been one of the best inside linebackers in the league over the past few seasons and his tackling and coverage prowess will be greatly appreciated considered how much Bears linebackers have struggled in these areas of late, Nate Davis-a nasty mauler of a guard who has steadily improved in each of the past few seasons whose presence provides the added bonus of allowing Cody Whitehair to shift back to his natural position of center, D'onta Foreman-whose explosiveness should make him a good complement to the power of Khalil Herbert out of the backfield and DeMarcus Walker-who carries just much as risk as he does upside as a pass-rusher after ripping off a career-high 7-sack season with the Titans in 2022 following a rocky start to his career that was defined by injuries and inconsistent play. While it's not the splashiest collection of names in the world, these players have an opportunity to give this team the DNA change it desperately needs and save for Edmunds, they didn't overpay for anyone on a long-term basis-which gives them the flexibility to add more pieces in the future.

After their bold move down the board, Poles opened himself to become a permanent part of draft lore and subsequently put the players he selected under an industrial-grade microscope. While time will clearly reveal the story of this draft class, Poles did continue his trend of diligently attacking positions of need while assembling this class. 1st round pick Darnell Wright was viewed as the best right tackle prospect in this draft given his strength/athleticism combo and how well he held up against SEC competition and has made some early fans in Chicago after he came into camp in great shape after accidently adhering to the receivers offseason conditioning program. Tyrique Stevenson is a long, physical outside corner who sticks to receivers in coverage that should compete to start right away and may even be viewed as a replacement for Jaylon Johnson if they opt not to re-sign him when he hits free agency following this season. Both interior defensive lineman they picked (Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens) have eerily similar profiles and resumes: They're both explosive athletes that dominated at times in the SEC (Dexter Sr. went for Florida while Pickens went to South Carolina), but whose play was ultimately too erratic to be considered a 1st round pick. The expectation for now is that DC Alan Williams will keep rolling with Justin Jones and Andrew Billings in the starting lineup while these two get coached up, but it'll be interesting to see if/how the preseason games and remainder of training camp can change the hierarchy.      

On Day 3, they nabbed Roschon Johnson-a productive downhill runner with decent ability in the passing game that did a good job of spelling workhorse Bijan Robinson at Texas who could be a dark horse to steal the starting RB job from Herbert or Foreman some point this year, downfield burner Tyler Scott-who could get a lot of opportunities in 3-4 WR sets if he clicks with Fields in practice and Noah Sewell (yes, he is the brother of Lions tackle Penai Sewell)-a sound yet not overly explosive linebacker at Oregon who should make for a nice depth in their unique system that makes use of 3 "traditional" linebackers.

There's a lot of potential for overall growth with the moves that Poles made and they've helped usher in a degree of optimism that the Bears haven't seen since 2019. Let's hope that it doesn't end up being all for naught now like it was then.          

Biggest Reason for Concern: That They're Being Anointed Too Quickly

Since camp has gotten started, I've quite frankly been floored by how high people are on this Bears team. Every day there's some tidbit coming out about how Justin Fields is a completely different player, his connection with D.J. Moore is seamless and magical, the offensive line is a force to be reckoned with, etc. (I actually just read a blurb about shit the line in practice was earlier today before I started editing this but that is sincerely the first piece of negative news I've heard out of Bears camp.) To an extent, I can understand why there's so much excitement around the team. The NFC North is a pretty wide open division without a clear favorite and Fields was an exciting player last season that won people a lot of fantasy games with his electrifying rushing ability. Plus, fans of this team have been down bad since the Double Doink happened in January 2019, so any reason to get excited about watching this team right now is a welcome change of pace from the misery they've reveled over the past few years. That being said, this whole thing just feels wrong to me. 

What has this team done to inspire this level of heightened optimism in August? They ripped this team down to the studs a year ago and are coming off a 3-14 campaign in which they ended the season on a 9-game losing streak for fuck's sake! Sure, they seems to have the right attitude-largely due to Fields being a confident yet completely level-headed kid who doesn't make excuses or throw his teammates under the bus after a loss and having brought in enough pieces on both sides of the ball to all but ensure they won't have the worst record in the league for a 2nd straight year. But do we really know anything about who this team really is? 

The amount of pressing questions surrounding this team are plentiful. How is Eberflus as a coach? He had the defense playing with some tenacity and grit early on, but that faded in time and his game management in close games wasn't exactly great. Can the young pieces on their offensive line (Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins) repeat or build off of their pretty strong performances from a year ago and will Wright be able to make a smooth transition to the pros? Do they have enough at edge rusher, defensive tackle and corner to field a good defense in the modern NFL? Is their depth at receiver behind Moore good enough since they're bringing back Darnell Mooney-who is coming off a broken ankle, Chase Claypool, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown and Velus Jones Jr. from last year's team and the only other newcomer is a rookie with a questionable floor (Scott). And most importantly, does Fields have what it takes to be a franchise quarterback? He's been playing with one hand tied behind his back on account on of some poor offensive line play and an even weaker receiving corps over the past 2 seasons, but his frantic, downright terrible play in the 4th quarter of  some winnable games last season (namely Week 9 versus the Dolphins, Week1 10 versus the Lions and Week 11 versus the Falcons) and inconsistent touch on his throws has raised some serious red flags.

Anointing a team that was god awful last year and led by largely unproven young players as a top 2023 breakout candidate is a painfully naïve thing to do, especially when the team in question is the fucking Chicago Bears.     

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Play of Justin Fields 

As I just mentioned above, Fields has been hamstrung by the Bears roster deficiencies while also displaying some concerning tendencies that could be difficult to fix (on top of what I've mentioned above, his tendency to hold onto the ball for far too long-which was his biggest knock coming out of college-has led to some unnecessary sacks) in his first 2 pro seasons. Year #3 is often viewed as a make-or-break year for the trajectory of a young QB and luckily for Fields, this is the best situation he's had as a pro. Having Moore as a #1 WR and pivoting Mooney-who was quite good as Allen Robinson's running mate in 2020/21 before struggling as the top dog last year-over to a #2 role should make finding open receivers much easier, the offensive line appears to be in a pretty good spot with Wright and Davis coming in, Whitehair moving over to center and Sam Mustipher leaving the building for good and for the 1st time as a pro, he didn't have to learn a new system in the offseason (the fact that Luke Getsy proved last season that he built a system around him is also a huge bonus). Early word is that he's been sharp in camp and is highly motivated to win. The Bears are going need him to be the dual-threat he was pegged to be when he came out of Ohio State if they want their rebuilding efforts to trend in a positive direction or they may be just a year or two away from dipping back into the draft pool yet again.

Bottom Line:

I'll staring believing in God again before I ever believe in the Bears. Anything above 6 wins from them would be a delightful surprise.   

Detroit Lions

2023 Record: 9-8 (2nd in NFC North)

Head Coach: Dan Campbell (3rd season)

Notable Additions: CB Cameron Sutton, S/CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, RB David Montgomery

Notable Departures: RB D'Andre Swift, CB Jeff Okudah, RB Jammal Williams

Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Have a Chance to Be Really Good

A mere 3 seasons after Matt Patricia left their operation in ruins, the Lions are threatening to be a really good football team. It's a year later than some people expected, but it's a welcome position for a long-suffering franchise to be in nonetheless. What transpired last season was the biggest endorsement of Dan Campbell's coaching meddle to date. This team was on the brink of contending for the #1 pick at Halloween after getting off to a horrendous 1-6 start where they largely played sloppy, dumb football that cost them wins in close games (Week 1 versus the Eagles, Week 3 versus the Vikings, Week 4 versus the Seahawks)and got them blown out in others (Week 5 versus the Patriots, Week 7 versus the Cowboys). Following their Week 8 loss to the Dolphins, something changed. The team started playing smarter, tougher and more together and that naturally led to improved execution across the board. They parlayed that improved play into a pretty incredible 7-2 finish to this year that left them just shy of the playoffs in Week 18-in which they famously eliminated the Packers from contention despite having nothing play to for following a Seahawks victory over the Rams earlier in the day. I'm not the biggest believer in the power of the sentimental aspects of the game, but Campbell's bond with his players that is built on trust, belief and respect is special and its helped breed a positive culture in Detroit that couldn't be further from the toxicity that had permeated their building right before his arrival in 2021 that has unquestionably contributed to their improved play on the field.

That strong finish along with some extracirucclar factors (OC Ben Johnson-who did a sensational job last year-passing on head coaching interviews to remain with the team in 2023, the path to a division title getting clearer with Aaron Rodgers leaving Green Bay, Jared Goff coming off his best season since 2018 and remaining committed to the team with 2 years remaining on his current deal) has the team in an excellent spot to be even better this season. Given what this conference looks like right now, there's a chance this team could make a run-even with the relative youth and inexperience of many of their best players (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill). The Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl with a similarly young group and they didn't have a QB that had been there before under center or an offensive line that was capable of blocking. There's potential for this team to do great things. They just need to find a way to overcome the hereditary stink that is synonymous     with this franchise and make it happen.       

Biggest Reason for Concern: History Repeating Itself

There's certain teams in sports that are predisposed to heartbreak and/or being bad. Depending on what side of it you're on, it's either the most needless misery you'll ever experience in your life or a source of constant hilarity since sports fans are dickheads that get off on laughing at another fan's pain. The Lions affliction is a particularly awful one since they are historically the greatest losers in the NFL. Not only were they the first team to put a together a winless season in 2008, they've been around for the duration of the Super Bowl-era-which launched in 1966- and have never made it to the big game-which is something that can be said of literally no other team that's been around for this long (the only other team that have yet to make it are the Jaguars, Texans and the current iteration of the Browns, who've been playing since 1995, 2002 and 1999 respectively). Making this run of futility even more heartbreaking, they've only made 11 playoff appearances and won a single playoff game since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970. By the way, that win came in the Divisional Round over the Cowboys 32 years ago and they followed it up with a 41-10 loss to the Redskins in the NFC title game.

The weight of history is a powerful force that can not be overcome in a lot of cases. The Lions know that as well as anyone as they haven't ever truly threatened to overcome the crippling burden of their own in over the past 56 years. This team seems to have the right attitude and talent-level to do what has been unthinkable for so long. But the mind and physical gifts alone can't slay a giant and it wouldn't be at all surprising if the giant stomped all over yet another bunch of football players from the Motor City and the fans that have suffered alongside them for generations.     

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Defensive Play

What definitely did not contribute to the Lions post-Halloween turnaround was the play of their defense. While they did tighten up a bit over the past month and a half after getting completely embarrassed in the early stages of the season, they weren't exactly striking fear into their opponents as they still finished in the bottom 5 in scoring defense, run D and pass D and dead last in total YDS allowed. 

Now, they've proven they can win shootouts and having a trash defense didn't prevent the Vikings from running away with this division a year ago. However, their ability to make a run in the playoffs will be significantly harder if their defense doesn't become at least semi-competent this year.

Following some offseason moves and the projected upward trajectories of their young players, a sizable improvement could be on the horizon. The most jarring (and necessary) changes took place in their secondary as Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and rookie Brian Branch were brought in to join forces with their returning starters at safety (Kerby Joseph, Tracy Walker). Figuring out exactly whose going where is a little bit tricky at the moment given that Gardner-Johnson and Moseley are banged up and both Gardner-Johnson and Branch could be assigned to a hybrid slot corner/safety role or traditional slot role given their versatile skill sets, but regardless of where these players end up being placed on the field, this group has a significantly better chance of morphing into a sound coverage unit than the oft-decimated platoon of sadness that was out there last year. 

Elsewhere, the only other projected new starter appears to be 1st round pick Jack Campbell. While some draft pundits were flabbergasted by Campbell going so high, the University of Iowa product patrols the middle of the field with a ferocity, decisiveness and explosiveness that is reminiscent of 2000's legends like Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher and Patrick Willis-which had to endear him to the meathead that shares his last name that coaches this team. Pairing Campbell with the sound but not overly athletic Malcolm Rodriguez could be just what this inside linebacker group needs to soar. 

What could end up being the real make-or-break for this mission of improving the defense is how Aidan Hutchinson and their pass-rush performs. Hutchinson ended up being the disruptor he was pegged to be after a slow start-finishing his rookie season with 9.5 sacks, 9 TFL's, 15 QB hits, 52 total tackles and 3 INT's (?!). For the sake of the entire operation, somebody else from the group of John Cominsky, Charles Harris, Josh Paschal and Romeo Okwara-who combined for just 9 sacks in 2022-is going to have emerge as a true threat to get after the quarterback and shift some attention away from Hutchinson so he can really starting cooking. He's not yet at the level where he can plow through a triple team no problem like Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald or Chris Jones and not having to take on that level of burden would be beneficial for his growth in year #2.

 If DC Aaron Glenn really is the prodigy he was pegged to be while he was the DB coach under Sean Payton and Dennis Allen in New Orleans, this group will come together beautifully and exit the basement of the collective league rankings in short order.

Bottom Line:

Despite everything in my bones telling me that tragedy is going to strike for the Lions yet again, I believe that the talent of their roster, the moxie of Campbell and strong offensive mind of Johnson will power them to their 1st division title since 1993.  

Green Bay Packers

2023 Record: 8-9 (3rd in NFC North)

Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (5th season)

Notable Additions:  S Tarvarius Moore, S Jonathan Owens, LS Matthew Orzech

Notable Departures: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, S Adrian Amos

Biggest Reason for Excitement: All of the Bullshit with Aaron Rodgers is Over

The annual drawn-out cycle of Rodgers whining about the Packers and/or threatening to retire only to come back and play for them finally ended when they fulfilled his request to be traded to the Jets in April. As thankful as the organization is for the Super Bowl ring he helped bring them in 2010 and their status as a near-annual contender for the majority of the 15 seasons he was under center, it was time for them to part ways. Rodgers was miserable in Green Bay and he isn't playing at a high enough level anymore to help them win another title and now is the time to finally figure out what Jordan Love is made of. While attendance, their odds of winning Lombardi #5 and the number of lengthy, condescending press conference rants the Green Bay/Milwaukee press corps will be on the receiving end of may dip in the interim, they managed the departure of a future Hall of Fame QB quite well before and given their strong front office infrastructure, it wouldn't be a shock if they did it again.     

Biggest Reason for Concern: Jordan Love Coming In and Faceplanting

It was viewed as a big deal when the Chiefs used a 1st round pick on Patrick Mahomes then had him sit behind Alex Smith for the entirety of his rookie season in 2017 (outside of their meaningless regular season finale in which he drew the start) before trading Smith and making him the starter in 2018. The Packers let Love sit for 3 full years before granting him that opportunity. Leave it to an iconic old school franchise and the only team without a billionaire owner to treat a quarterback selected in the 1st round in the 2020's like a 1st round quarterback that was drafted in the 1980's.

As peculiar as it is to see a QB drafted so high ride the pine for so long without injuries playing a factor, it made sense as Love was an exceptionally raw player who was viewed as somebody who could greatly benefit from watching and learning from Rodgers and Rodgers used the fuel of the Packers drafting Love as motivation to put together back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. We likely won't see anything like this again given the current climate of the NFL where guys are thrown out there ASAP once their drafted high, so this unique case of zigging while everybody else was zagging will likely be permanently engrained in gridiron history. 

Both the best and worst thing about Love sitting for 3 years is nobody knows what he is. He started 1 game on short notice in 2021 after Rodgers tested positive for COVID (and was famously outed as being unvaccinated despite saying he had been "immunized" against the virus during training camp that year) and struggled-going 19/34 for 190 YDS, a TD and an INT as the Packers lost 13-7 to the Chiefs. Putting stock in 1 game-especially given those circumstances and the fact that it was nearly 2 years ago-is a silly and useless exercise that people really shouldn't be engaging in.

What should give Packers fans some pause however is Love's profile coming out of Utah State. The two things he struggled with the most in college were accuracy (his career completion was only 61.2% and he only completed 62% or better of his passes 1 time in his 3 seasons there) and decisionmaking (he threw a whopping 17 INT's in his final year and managed 6 INT's only on 235 passing attempts in 2017). Famously, these are the two hardest things to fix in the pros and his small sample size has yet to prove that he's overcome these issues since joining in the NFL (his 2021 statline of 3 INT's and a 58.1 CMP% is particularly worrisome). 

Let's just say as a hypothetical that Love's decisionmaking and accuracy both stink this year. How are they going to win games if their QB can't be trusted to make plays? Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon aren't the types of runners that would fare well against facing stacked boxes on most of their carries and while their defense is a pretty stout group with blue chip talent at all 3 levels, they likely wouldn't be good enough to overcome an offense that couldn't score and regularly put them in precarious positions by turning the ball over and failing to sustain drives. They also don't really have another viable option other than Love as the current competition for the backup job is between rookie Sean Clifford-who was considered by many to be an egregious reach in the 5th round (based on the limited tape of his that I saw, I would agree with this take) and Alex McGough-a 7th round pick of the Seahawks in 2018 whose yet to play a snap in the pros, has spent the past 2 years as the starting QB for the USFL's Birmingham Stallions and joined the team on July 19th. To put it more directly, this team isn't talented enough to overcome Love coming out and faceplanting when he finally gets the chance to play.

Grace is something Love has earned, deserves and will get from an organization that's as well-run and patient as the Packers as he enters his 1st season as an NFL starting quarterback. But if these concerns about his game manifest into something bigger and more problematic for the team, his chance to be the uncontested starter may be shorter than anticipated.           

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Young Receiving Corps Producing

Having a receiving corps and pair of starting tight ends that solely consists of rookies and 2nd year players is certainly a unique strategy to deploy when you're rolling out a new starting quarterback for the first time since 2008. Really about the only obvious pluses that arise from this arrangement is that Love got some reps with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson last year when he ran the 2nd team offense in practice and he won't be afforded the opportunity to ice out the young guys like Rodgers famously did in his later years. 

While it's more of a coincidence than a case of familiarity winning out, Watson and Doubs are currently expected to be the top dogs. Both guys flashed in stretches last year, but not at the same time as Doubs came out of the gate hot while Watson struggled immensely with drops and running the right routes and Watson finished the season hot with 8 TD's (7 receiving, 1 rushing) and 3 100+ YD performances in the final 8 games while Doubs was relatively quiet down the stretch after returning from an ankle injury that caused him to miss 4 games from late November-mid-December. Given that Watson is more of a home run-hitter and Doubs is more of a possession-receiver, both of them could absolutely thrive simultaneously. If they can click at the same time, it could look like the pairing of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans down in Tampa.

The rookies they brought in (of which there are many) bring some different flavors to the table. The tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are pretty similar players as they're both imposing physical presences (Musgrave is 6'6, 253 lbs while Kraft is 6'5, 254 lbs) with terrific athleticism who served as short yardage YAC options/redzone specialists on run-first offenses in college who could turn into something greater if/when they're asked to do more at the next level. Jayden Reed is currently slated to start in the slot, which could be a great fit for him given the contested catch ability, shiftiness and route-running craftiness he showed at Michigan State. 5th round pick Dontayvion Wicks gives the Packers another vertical threat to pair with Watson, although his lack of a route tree and checkered history of drops may limit his reps in the earlygoing. Who knows if/how Grant DuBose will fit in since he could be on the roster bubble as a late 7th round pick, but he was one of the more productive receivers in the University of Charlotte's history, so maybe there's something there. 

Getting on the same page as so many young receivers at once adds another challenge to Love's transition to the starting role. But if at least a couple of these guys pop and Love can develop a rapport with them, the Packers offense could end up surprising a lot of people.    

Bottom Line:

Anything is possible with Jordan Love. They could be great. They could stink. They could be in the middle. I'm inclined to go with option B right now, but I wouldn't even consider betting on that. 

Minnesota Vikings

2023 Record: 13-4 (1st in NFC North)

Head Coach: Kevin O'Connell (2nd season)

Notable Additions: CB Byron Murphy, OLB Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry

Notable Subtractions: RB Dalvin Cook, ILB Eric Kendricks, OLB Za'Darius Smith

Biggest Reason for Excitement: The NFC North Remains Wide Open

Aaron Rodgers is out of Green Bay. Nobody knows what the Bears are actually going to be. And the Lions claim on the division crown shouldn't be taken seriously until the moment they snatch it. What does this all mean? The Vikings are probably in business by default. Are they really that good? No. Will it matter? Probably not. Kirk Cousins slinging darts at 1 PM and slinging farts in primetime (especially on Monday night), Justin Jefferson setting new receiving records and Kevin O'Connell scheming up ways to get T.J. Hockenson, K.J. Osborn or volunteer luxury dog ambulance driver Jordan Addison open is a formula that could (and likely will) will yield them 10+ wins and a 2nd straight NFC North title. Hooray for the almighty black and blue division! 

Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Luck Running Out After Last Season

An average person would cite the losses of guys like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Patrick Peterson  and the projected upward trajectory of the Lions and Bears as reasons why the Vikings could potentially regress this season. A cripplingly superstitious, OCD-addled idiot like myself will cite patterns and luck as the primary threat to repeating their winning ways. What the Vikings did in their 13-4 campaign a year ago was the epitome of an enigma. About the only thing you could get football fans outside of Minnesota to agree on last year was that the 2022 Vikings had a horseshoe up their ass that could cover the entire length of Lake Minnetonka. Outside of the 23-7 win over the Packers and 29-13 win over the Bears that bookended their season, every single win of theirs was by 8 points or less. All 4 of their regular season losses were by 11 points or more and 2 of them were by 24 or more. Both of their overtime wins (Bills and Colts) are among the silliest wins you'll ever see in the league (watch a game highlight video or read the game log if you aren't familiar with what happened, it was art). They became the 1st team in NFL history to win 12+ games while having a negative scoring differential (-3).  This is a drawn-out way of saying nearly every break or bounce that could go there way did

The season after a team overachieves doesn't always have a tendency to end well. We actually just saw a case of it last year when the Cardinals followed up their 11-6 2021 season with a 4-13 2022 campaign. In the NFL, the universe has a way of sorting things out and ensuring a team the benefited from a bunch of lucky breaks won't have it happen again in back-to-back seasons. Considering all of the players they lost from last year's team and the not exactly comparable pieces they have replacing most of them, defeating this curse could prove to be an uphill battle.    

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Brian Flores Changing Their Defense

What transpired with the Vikings defense in 2022 was pretty difficult to fathom. Ed Donatell has been coaching in the NFL for over 30 years, held 3 previous DC posts and served as a top lieutenant of Vic Fangio over the previous 11 seasons and yet, the coaching job he did in Minnesota was just horrendous. The group played soft and loose, seemingly no adjustments were ever made and their pass coverage when the ball wasn't heading towards Patrick Peterson was a crime against the art of playing DB. There were some problems that were beyond Donatell's control (Eric Kendricks being washed, the revolving door they had at the other outside corner spot next to Peterson, safety Camryn Bynum continuing to struggle as a starter) and the group wasn't really any worse than they were in the final 2 seasons under Mike Zimmer's control, but it was an unacceptable coaching job nonetheless and his firing was justifiable.

In a bit of a surprising move that felt highly improbable after he sued the league for discrimination a year ago, former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores landed the Vikings DC gig after spending last season as the linebackers coach on Mike Tomlin's staff in Pittsburgh. While his track record isn't spotless, what he did as the Patriots de facto DC following the departure of Matt Patricia in 2018 when the play of his group was almost solely responsible for their Super Bowl victory in a 13-3 rock fight over the Rams and the major leap his Dolphins group made from 2019 to 2020 proves his worth as a coach. If I didn't have reservations about all of the position coaches from last year's team returning, I'd easily declare him the best DC hiring of this cycle.

At the top of the agenda list for Flores will be figuring out what the hell is going on at corner now that Peterson, Chandon Sullivan and Cameron Dantzler are all gone. Change was needed after ranking 31st in the league in pass D a year ago and they're getting it with a sizable influx of new players coming in , but the personnel leaves something to be desired to say the least. 

Free agent pickup Byron Murphy is an interesting player with potential that made a pretty sizable jump during his final 2 years with the Cardinals, but it remains unclear whether or not he can handle top corner responsibilities in the league. Andrew Booth Jr. is probably going to need some pep talks and a good, long hug to get the confidence to step back on the field after a nightmarish rookie campaign that was cut short by a knee injury that required surgery in late November. Joejuan Williams could carve out some playtime (if he makes the team) simply because he has at least somewhat of a preexisting knowledge of Flores' system from spending 4 years with the Patriots, but based on how he played there, that probably won't end up being much of an advantage. Akayleb Evans didn't show much of anything in his 2 starts last year. Rookie Mekhi Blackmon has a compete level and feistiness that could endear him to Flores, but his lack of ball skills, lengthy history of soft tissue injuries and smaller size (5'11, 178 lbs) could make him tough to trust in a high-leverage role. Early word out of camp is that Evans, Blackmon and Murphy will start, but who knows what could transpire between now and Week 1.

Elsewhere, there's the sticky situations of whose replacing the departed/recently injured members (Kedricks, Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, James Lynch-who tore his ACL last weekend) upfront. Smith's replacement Marcus Davenport can be a complete wrecking ball (look no further than what he did in 2019 and 2021), but he's also oft-dinged up-missing 3-5 games in 4 of his 5 NFL seasons so far and had a career-low 0.5 sacks along with just 8 QB hits, 2 TFL's and 29 total tackles in 15 games with the Saints last season. Lynch's replacement Khryis Tonga took a step forward in 2022 with the Vikings after an uneventful rookie year with the Bears and has shown some real promise as a run-stuffer, but he's still a green player with only 4 starts under his belt and it's difficult to project what he can do as a full-time player given his limited sample size. Kendricks' replacement Brian Asamoah will test the limits of the theory that modern inside linebackers are basically just another safety flying around as the 2nd year pro has measurable of 6'0, 226 lbs. Even if he was bigger, he'd be facing a potentially steep learning curve in the NFL based on how often he missed tackles in college due to his technique (he has the same problem as his fellow Oklahoma Sooner Kenneth Murray has where he wraps people up at such a high point that they either slip out of his grip or he gets stiff-armed in the process of the wrap-up) and his suspect cover skills. Lastly, comes Tomlinson's replacement Dean Lowry-who was a mainstay on the Packers defensive line over the past 7 seasons and is a pretty reliable player overall, but just isn't quite as good of a run-defender as Tomlinson is.

The final major hurdle is also the one that could be the thing that changes this defense's fate: Getting the players to buy into Flores' system. Flores has a reputation for being a bit of a hard-ass (he's from New York City and his primary coaching mentor was Bill Belichick, so he's simply following his destiny). It rubbed some of his players in Miami the wrong way and ultimately contributed to his ouster as head coach after 3 seasons. If there's a refusal to play ball with Flores, the same results from the past few seasons will likely repeat themselves. But if they can get on his wavelength and take his coaching to heart, this group should begin to improve. 

Bottom Line:

While they're bound for a regression after last year's logic-defying success, their strong potential for defensive improvement and still potent offense should be enough to keep them in the playoff mix. 

Predicted Standings:

1.Detroit Lions (10-7)

2.Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

3.Chicago Bears (6-11)

4.Green Bay Packers (5-12)

2023 NFL Power Rankings: Preseason

1.Kansas City Chiefs

2.Philadelphia Eagles

3.San Francisco 49ers

4.Cincinnati Bengals

5.Buffalo Bills

6.Dallas Cowboys

7.Jacksonville Jaguars

8.Los Angeles Chargers

9.Miami Dolphins

10.Seattle Seahawks

11.Baltimore Ravens

12.Minnesota Vikings

13.New York Giants

14.Detroit Lions

15.New York Jets

16.Pittsburgh Steelers

17.New Orleans Saints

18.New England Patriots

19.Cleveland Browns

20.Tennessee Titans

21.Washington Commanders

22.Atlanta Falcons

23.Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

24.Las Vegas Raiders

25.Green Bay Packers

26.Los Angeles Rams

27.Chicago Bears

28.Carolina Panthers

29.Denver Broncos

30.Indianapolis Colts

31.Houston Texans

32.Arizona Cardinals

2023 NFL Preview: AFC North

 Baltimore Ravens

2023 Record: 10-7 (2nd in AFC North)

Head Coach: John Harbaugh (16th season)

Notable Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Nelson Agholor

Notable Departures: DE Calias Campbell, CB Marcus Peters, G Ben Powers

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Greg Roman is Out as Offensive Coordinator

Greg Roman was pivotal to the early development of Lamar Jackson. Building off his past experiences with Colin Kaepernick, Roman was able to build an entire offense around Jackson's dynamic rushing ability that effectively turned the Ravens into a track team with shoulder pads on that was pretty much impossible to stop. The early results were hard to argue with as Jackson won the MVP in 2019 and put together back-to-back 1,000 rushing YDS campaigns in 2019 and 2020 while the Ravens made the playoffs 3 times in 4 seasons. The problem was that Roman's system was so driven by the rushing game that GM Eric DeCosta was basically discouraged from investing in the receiver position since it was effectively an afterthought in their scheme. It got to the point over the past 2 seasons where if they went down early, you knew they had basically zero chance of coming back since they simply didn't have the talent at receiver outside of Mark Andrews to make consistent plays in the passing game. After back-to-back seasons of the offense ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring (17th in 2021, 19th in 2022) and a brutal stretch last December/January where they failed to score more than 17 points in a whopping 6 straight games, the need to move on from Roman became apparent and 9 days after their Wild Card loss to the Bengals, he "resigned" from his post as Ravens OC.

When it came to finding a replacement for Roman, the Ravens naturally went in the complete opposite direction when they pried Todd Monken away from the University of Georgia. Over the course of his OC career in the pros-which mainly consisted of his stint with the truly hilarious Dirk Koetter-Jameis Winston-era Buccaneers from 2016-18, Monken has built up a reputation as a pass-happy SOB. Given that Jackson is under center and their roster construction still favoring a run-heavy philosophy, Monken likely won't be letting it fly like it's 33-31 shootout against the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in 2017. Still, the team won't be afraid to pass under Monken and with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and promising rookie in Zay Flowers-who was quite the route-runner/YAC specialist in colllege and boasts the inside/outside versatility that teams covet in their receivers-lining up alongside longtime top target Mark Andrews and the enigma that is 3rd year pro Rashod Bateman, they could make some serious noise when they decide to throw it.  

Admittedly, the results from Monken's previous NFL gigs are reasons to give people some pause over how he'll fare in Baltimore. His offenses have never ranked higher than 12th in scoring and what transpired in Cleveland during the trainwreck 2019 season under Freddie Kitchens was bad enough to get him relegated to college and keep NFL teams from pursuing him for 3 whole seasons. However, Monken was frequently hamstrung by horrible defenses and some of the worst turnover rates in the league while he was with the Bucs and Browns. At the bare minimum, these problems with the Ravens won't be nearly as backbreaking with the Ravens. Their RB duo of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards don't put a lot of balls on the ground (they combined for 1 lost fumble and only 3 total last season), their bend-but-don't-break defense tightened up when it needed to and they ended up finishing in 3rd in scoring defense a year ago and while he's is somewhat prone to throwing some brutal, costly picks at inopportune times, Jackson is by no means a Winston-esque gunslinger capable of blindly chucking his way into a 20+ pick season. As long as they don't regress in these key areas, Monken stands a good chance of finding a happy medium between his pass-happy philosophies and the Ravens run-first roster build and building a hell of an offense.      

Biggest Reason for Concern: Corner Play Next to Marlon Humphrey

Everybody knows the book on Marlon Humphrey at this point in his career. He's a tough, tremendous outside corner who excels in zone coverage and seldom makes costly mistakes. The entire corner group has been built around him for the past 4 years for a reason and the Ravens are lucky to have somebody so reliable as their top dog. Unfortunately for Baltimore, Humphrey's presence (or their excellent safety trio of Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton and Chuck Clark-who was traded to the Jets in the offseason and will miss all of 2023 after tearing his ACL during mini-camp in the spring-for that matter) wasn't enough to make their pass defense good. They actually ranked a miserably bad 26th in the league against the pass, which is staggering since their rush and scoring defense were both ranked 3rd overall.   

Marcus Peters was the biggest catalyst to their struggles last season as he had easily his worst year as a Raven-allowing 711 YDS and 7 TD's in only 13 games played. As a result of his play in 2022 and age entering 2023 (he'll be 31 in early January), the Ravens decided to let him walk in free agency. 

Unfortunately,  their issues at corner extended well beyond Peters and most of the other parties responsible for their struggles in 2022 are still walking around their facility in Owings Mills, Maryland. Brandon Stephens was so bad at corner last season that they're set to move him to safety as a de facto replacement for Clark this year. Jayln Amour-Davis didn't even look like he should be a professional cornerback in the 4 games he appeared in before going on IR with a hip injury as he allowed 11-of-12 targets that the receivers he lined up against managed to turn into 226 YDS and 2 TD's (that's a truly averaging 20.5 YDS per reception against). Fellow rookie Damarion Williams fared a bit better than Amour-Davis in spot duty over 14 games, but he still had plenty of ugly moments-especially as a tackler and his ball skills don't seem to be good enough to earn him consistent playing time at this level. Journeyman Daryl Worley will probably continue to bounce between the big club and the practice squad if he sticks with the Ravens, so he probably won't factor much into this mess either way.

Based on whose been running alongside Humphrey in camp, their ideal solution at the position seems to be free agent pickups Rock Ya-Sin and Arthur Maulet. This is far from the safest strategy DeCosta could pull out here. Ya-Sin actually managed to put together a sneaky good year as part of an otherwise wretched Raiders secondary in 2022, but he's not the INT threat that Peters was (he actually only has 2 career picks and hasn't gotten one since 2020), has shaky durability-missing 3+ games in each of the past 3 seasons and is a magnet for drawing some really dumb PI calls ever since he came into the league in 2019. Maulet, on the other hand, is pretty much just a "guy". He's somebody who doesn't do anything overly well or poorly that gets rolled out there as a slot or 4th corner when a team needs a body and they just hope that he doesn't get burned too bad while they need him out there. Sometimes the strategy works, sometime it doesn't. Relying him on as a full-time starter seems a bit ill-advised, but maybe Mike McDonald can unlock something in him that his coaches with the Saints, Colts, Jets and Steelers couldn't.

Their pass defense could prove to be quite the albatross if it performs like it did a year ago, so DeCosta better hope that somebody steps up alongside Humphrey and makes this group at least semi-functional again. 

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Lamar Jackson's Health

After submitting a trade request and getting caught up in an unprecedented case of "alleged" league-wide collusion in which no other teams made him an offer despite being on the non-exclusive franchise tag that the Ravens slapped on him after their initial round of contract talks stalled, Lamar Jackson signed a 5-year/$260 mil ($180 mil guaranteed) extension to remain in Baltimore. It was the right move for both sides as the Ravens have built their entire offense around him and Jackson wasn't going to get the deal that reflected his worth from any other team. With the contract drama behind them, the Ravens can move onto the bigger concern (aka the one that was being used as the excuse as to why no other team was pursuing him this offseason): His health. 

Over the past 2 seasons, Jackson has gotten dinged up in early December and spent the rest of the year on the sideline. In 2021, it was a severe low ankle sprain that required him to be carted off the field shortly after hobbling to the sideline in a Week 14 showdown with the Browns. Last year, it was a PCL sprain sustained on a sack by Broncos outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper in Week 13. There's been some debate how serious the PCL sprain was as he was initially predicted to return to action in 3 weeks and some people believe that he was indeed good to go for the final 2 games of the year but chose to sit out to avoid risking re-injury just a few months before he was set to negotiate his new contract. 

Regardless of the true severity of the PCL ailment, getting hurt late in the year in back-to-back seasons is a potentially troubling sign for Jackson. It's not a secret that the 26-year old is one of the smaller QB's in the league at 6'2, 215 lbs and given his relatively slender frame, the beatings that he opens himself up to when fearlessly running the football all over the field could lead to a steeper physical decline than the one we recently saw from a bigger QB that also put himself in harm's way in the running game (Cam Newton). The harsh truth it's not a matter of if Jackson's body will break down from taking frequent huge hits over these years, but when. The human body can only withstand so much punishment and Jackson has actively seeked out a whole lot of it while he's been shattering every QB rushing record in the league history during his initial 5 NFL seasons.  

Based on what's happened to him over the past 2 years, the physical deterioration process could already be starting. For the sake of self-preservation and the collective good of a franchise whose brass might puke if Tyler Huntley is under center again at Christmas this year, Jackson needs to begin emulating the rushing strategies of fellow small QB's Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and rookie Bryce Young and avoid hard contact whenever possible by sliding or getting out of bounds. Taking whatever he steps he can to make himself less susceptible to getting injured should immediately increase his chances of meaningfully growing the legacy he's already began to build and with a healthy Jackson under center, anything is possible for this team.                

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC North)

Head Coach: Zac Taylor (5th season)

Notable Additions: T Orlando Brown Jr., S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith Jr.

Notable Departures: S Jessie Bates III, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Lou Anarumo Didn't Get a Head Coaching Job

Despite securing multiple interviews during the hiring cycle and being viewed as the frontrunner for the Cardinals job by some NFL media insiders, Lou Anarumo didn't land a head coaching job and will return to the Bengals for his 5th season as defensive coordinator. This is a best case scenario for a Bengals team that is looking to secure their 1st championship after getting pretty damn close to doing so in back-to-back seasons. 

Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins' ascension to stardom has managed to overshadow just how good the Bengals defense has been over the past 2 seasons (more like a year and a half, but that's just semantics). Hell, you could make a pretty strong argument that they wouldn't have made it all the way to the Super Bowl in 2021 without their contributions given that most of their scoring came from the right leg of Evan McPherson. Anarumo has instilled a level of toughness and compete level that is first-rate and their ability to generate sacks/takeaways at key moments of the game is seriously impressive. He'll have some difficult things to figure out this season as he tries to re-work a pretty significantly overhauled secondary (more on that in the next section) and try to mold their 1st round pick Myles Murphy into a valuable part of their pass-rushing rotation alongside Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard after a college career at Clemson where he failed to consistently make impact plays. Considering how well he's handled things over the past 2 years in terms of both player development and play-calling, he should up for the challenge and the Bengals have to be thrilled that it will be him navigating these problems instead of a newcomer that more than likely would've been brought in from outside of their system. 

Biggest Reason for Concern: State of Their Secondary

Pass defense was really the only crippling deficiency of the Bengals D in 2022 as they finished 23rd in the league against the pass-which surprisingly was an improvement from their 27th place finish the prior season. Last year's struggles intensified significantly once top corner Chidobe Awuzie tore his ACL during their Week 8 contest versus the Browns. Awuzie's absence forced rookie Cam Taylor-Britt to become a starting outside corner and putting an overwhelmed rookie into the lineup alongside the oft-burned Eli Apple went about as well as expected as the Bengals gave up an average of 251.5 YDS from Week 9 through their AFC Title Game loss to the Chiefs (up from the 202.1 per game they allowed in Weeks 1-7 when Awuzie was healthy).

2023 will introduce a completely new set of problems to a group that already wasn't in the best shape. The biggest (and not exactly unexpected) kick in the balls this group received was losing both of their longtime starting safeties (Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell) in free agency. There's a case to be made that it makes financial sense to let Bates and Bell walk since the Bengals theoretically have to pay Burrow, Chase and Higgins within the next 18 months and can't afford to commit $80+ million to the safety position at this point in time. 

Even if you're a defender of this move, their plan to replace a pair of top 20 safeties in the league doesn't exactly feel like a home run. Free agent pickup Nick Scott was affordable (3 years/$12 million-which is basically a third of what Bates could end up getting from the Falcons over the life of his deal) for a reason-he's an average-to-below-average player who was never better than the 3rd best overall safety on the Rams during his entire 4-year stint with the team. 2022 1st round pick Dax Hill has more upside since he has the field-spanning versatility and electric playmaking potential that Scott doesn't, but he's also a complete wild card since he got limited reps last season and struggled pretty badly in his 1 start at slot corner when Mike Hilton-who was a bright spot them for them last season and will be back this year-was out with a finger injury. 

Then, there's the negative side effect of their fully expected divorce with Apple after another suspect season being Taylor-Britt becoming a full-time starter on the outside. Transitioning to the NFL game as a rookie corner is a difficult jump that only a small number of guys are able to make and the learning curve is even steeper when you're thrust into a big role on a whim, which makes Taylor-Britt's struggles last season totally understandable. However, his inability to keep receivers in front of him despite his high 4.3 speed and shaky ball skills (0 INT's, 6 passes defensed in 10 games) indicate that he just might not be able to cut it as a starter at this level.  

Add in the realistic potential for regression from Awuzie after the ACL tear and you have a highly combustible situation that could make life really difficult for this team as they attempt to maintain their contender status in an exceptionally competitive conference and division.    

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Finally Getting Their Offensive Line Woes Fixed

As much as their pass defense woes contributed to their loss against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, their offensive line problems reared their ugly head yet again as Burrow took 5 sacks, 6 hits and 11 pressures and the running back duo of Joe Mixon and Samjae Perine averaged a brutally low 2.2 YDS per carry. It does need to be noted that the Bengals were without both starting tackles (Jonah Williams, La'el Collins) as well as starting right guard Alex Cappa in this game, but this performance was unacceptable regardless of circumstances. 

The reality is that even when the Bengals were at full-strength last season, their line wasn't all that great. Their run blocking was among the worst in the league, Collins had arguably the worst year of his career as he constantly looked sluggish and got overwhelmed in nearly every game and Williams and Cordell Volson both ranked in the top 5 in sacks allowed at their positions (Williams actually finished tied for the league lead among tackles with a whopping 12 surrendered). Bengals brass clearly weren't satisfied with their performance last year either as they decided to shake up their tackle situation by signing Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency. Ironically, Brown Jr. was brought in by the Chiefs to play left tackle after they got absolutely dominated by the Buccaneers pass-rush in their Super Bowl loss in 2020. The move for Brown Jr. worked quite well as their line significantly improved during his 2 seasons with the team. While some people around the league still view him as more of a right tackle-which reportedly caused his market to be weaker than expected and the additions of Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey were equally, if not more key in their successful offensive line overhaul, Brown Jr. proved he can be a reliable left tackle in this league during his time with the Chiefs and that is really all the Bengals need him to be. 

Bringing in Brown Jr. forces Williams over to right tackle, which despite his protests that led to him submitting a trade request after Brown signed in late March, could be good for him and his pursuit of a new deal in free agency as the weaker collection of pass-rushers on the right side could bring his sacks allowed numbers down as well as the general construction of this line now that a better pass-protector is manning the blind side. 

The interior looks to be the same as last year, which isn't the worst news in the world. Cappa and Karras more or less delivered what was expected of them when they joined the Bengals last season and Volson could very well improve now that he has a year of playing guard under his belt after exclusively playing tackle at North Dakota State. Any situation where Burrow isn't getting acquainted with the grass on 75% of his dropbacks and their running backs that are shockingly still being led by Mixon-who looked old and slow for the bulk of 2022-have some actual lanes to rush through will be a huge improvement for this team and could provide them with the boost they need to finally get over the hump and win a title.

Bottom Line:

If Burrow can come back healthy from the calf strain that knocked him out of practice at the start of training camp and their defense can overcome their secondary shakeup, the Bengals should be considered a real threat to make it out of the AFC.           

Cleveland Browns

2023 Record: 7-10 (4th in AFC North)

Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (4th season)

Notable Additions: DE Za'Darius Smith, WR Elijah Moore, S Juan Thornhill

Notable Departures:  QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Kareem Hunt, DE Jadeveon Clowney

Biggest Reason for Excitement: All of the Pass-Rushers They Brought In to Pair with Myles Garrett

No matter how ugly things got for the 2022 Browns defensively as the injuries piled up and the volume of big plays allowed continued to increase (particularly in the running game), Myles Garrett was a force that simply couldn't be stopped. The now 4x All-Pro racked up 16 sacks, 26 QB hits, 38 pressures, 18 TFL's, 60 total tackles and 4 passes defensed, which helped him finish in 5th place in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Considering that he did all of this with minimal help from his running mates (the entire rest of the team managed 18 sacks combined) while getting even more attention from opposing offenses than usual is frankly absurd even by Garrett's lofty standards.

Their lackluster overall sack totals paired with the hiring of a blitz-happy DC in Jim Schwartz to replace Joe Woods-who was fired after a pretty poor performance in 2022-convinced GM Andrew Berry to go pass-rusher crazy this offseason. Set to replace Jadeveon Clowney as Garrett's primary running mate on the edge is Za'Darius Smith. Smith had himself a great return to the field in 2022 after missing all but 1 game in 2021 with a back injury, registering 10 sacks and earning his 3rd career Pro Bowl nod in the process. Him wanting out of Minnesota after 1 season is a little puzzling (he requested a trade after the Draft and was subsequently dealt to Cleveland a few weeks later), but their loss is a particularly welcome gain for the Browns.

An equally important addition came earlier in the spring when they inked Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to a 3-year deal. Adding a designated pass-rusher in Okoronkwo allows them the luxury of establishing at least somewhat of a pass-rushing rotation to keep their starters more fresh and coming off a career year on a bad Texans team and entering his age-28 season, he could be store in for a nice run of success as he enters his prime.

The guy that could really hold the key of just how good their pass-rush/hopes of establishing a legit rotation can be is rookie Isaiah McGuire. Selected in the 4th round out of Mizzou, McGuire is the classic projection pick who has all the physical tools (speed, size, strength, a couple of effective pass-rushing moves), but just wasn't able to put it all together to be a consistently productive players in college. If McGuire can pop and the Browns can go at least 4 deep with their pass-rushing arsenal, the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers' quest for the top spot in the AFC North could get derailed in short order.  

Biggest Reason for Concern: That Their Defense Still Won't Be Very Good Overall Despite all of the Offseason Changes 

There's a (totally reasonable) belief that firing Woods and bringing in a bunch of new pieces (in addition to the pass-rushers, the Browns also brought in Dalvin Tomlinson, Juan Thornhill, Rodney McLeod and rookie Siaki Ika to either start or get regular reps) will be enough to dramatically change the course of this Browns group this year. As much individual talent as exists within this group, I'm not so sure I believe that.

Before you even get down to the actual X and O's, you have to factor in the lack of durability that this group has. Top corner Denzel Ward is pretty much a lock to get dinged up somewhere down the line as he's missed at least 2 games in each of his 5 NFL seasons thus far, their undersized linebacking corps (Anthony Walker Jr., Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Sione Takitaki) have taken some pretty hardcore beatings over the past 2 seasons that have caused them to miss varying amounts of time (Takitaki on the short end with 6 missed games while Walker Jr. is in the pole position with 17) and with Smith entering his age 31 season with a recent serious back injury on his resume, fears surrounding him re-aggravating the ailment remain tangible.

Another not overly considered thing when discussing this defense is how many suspect returning starters they have within their ranks. Jordan Elliott is still penciled in at the other starting defensive tackle spot alongside their new top run-stuffer Tomlinson despite being chief among the reasons their run D was so porous a year ago (25th in the league), the aforementioned starting linebacking corps is far too erratic in coverage and as tacklers to be trusted and despite his solid 4-INT total a year ago, Grant Delpit has been a below average starting safety in both of his healthy NFL seasons. Not to mention, Ward has somehow been able to skate for how poorly he played throughout 2022 as he allowed the highest completion percentage of all their corners that played regularly (60.9%) and YDS (530) on the entire team despite only appearing in 14 games.

The final piece of this potentially combustible puzzle is the man who was brought into replace Woods. Schwartz hasn't had a meaningful coaching role since he got axed as Eagles DC following the 2020 season (he's spent the past 2 seasons with the Titans as a senior defensive assistant) and during his time there, the group actually got progressively worse with each passing year (4th to 12th to 15th to 20th in scoring defense). His overall track record is a bit better as he led the Titans to a pair of top 10 scoring defenses in back-to-back seasons in 2007 and 2008 under Jeff Fisher and his lone year in Buffalo before Doug Marrone resigned in 2014 was revelatory as his group ranked 4th in scoring defense, 4th in total YDS allowed, 3rd in pass defense and 1st in sacks just a year after Mike Pettine had them ranked in the bottom half of the league in many of those same categories. Schwartz has enough of a pedigree to potentially turn things around, but his 2 years away from playcalling/scheming could prove to be detrimental for a group that needs to improve dramatically immediately to help eliminate the high risk Kevin Stefanski has of getting fired if he puts together a 3rd straight losing season.  

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Deshaun Watson Returning to Form

Stefanski's future in Cleveland is largely tied to how Watson fares this season. Is that totally fair since the brass knew Watson would be suspended for most of the 2022 season and effectively be useless for the remainder of it when they traded for him? No, but that's the price you pay when you commit to having a serial sexual predator that hadn't played football for nearly 2 calendar years at QB.

When Watson returned to the field in early December, the results were ugly. He wasn't just shaking the rust off, he looked like he was trying to re-learn the position on the fly. Everything from his throwing motion to the timing with his receivers just looked and felt off and those visible struggles unsurprisingly led to the worst numbers of his career (7 TD's/5 INT/58.2 CMP% in 6 games) by a wide margin. 

Does this mean anything in the grand scheme of things? Not really. Returning to NFL action after nearly 2 years at a time when everybody else is fully in the groove of the season is a baptism by fire that is particularly grueling for a QB. Now that he's conceivably gotten a chance to reacclimate to the game and go through a normal offseason program, the true start of the Watson era in Cleveland has arrived. 

To the credit of the front office, he's being putting in a pretty good spot to succeed. Their running game is one of the best in the league with the perpetually underrated Nick Chubb running behind this old school road grater offensive line (Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller, Ethan Pocic, Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin), Stefanski is a good playcaller who had this offense humming in 2020-which remains the only season he's gotten consistently good QB play in Cleveland and the collection of pass-catchers conceivably got more deeper and more dynamic this offseason with Elijah Moore-who could prove to be one of the most impactful pickups of the offseason if he goes back to being the player he was at the end of his rookie year in 2021 after a brutal sophomore campaign where he fell out of favor with the Jets coaching staff and rookie Cedric Tillman-a popular sleeper pick from this year's receiver class whose jump ball/redzone skills could easily translate to the pros- joining last year's 1-2 punch of Amari Cooper and David Njoku. That's plenty strong enough of a combination to give Watson the ability to return to his previous elite form, especially when you consider what the roster looked like during the end of his run in Houston in 2020. If Watson does stumble this season, it'll all be on him and his inability to reacclimate to the game after such long a time away, which would really be a pity to see since he's such a stand-up guy whose taken complete accountability for his previous actions. 

Bottom Line:

While the Browns do have enough talent on paper to be a playoff team, I'm not particularly confident in their ability to overcome all of the question marks surrounding their roster and coaching staff at the moment.   

Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 Record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC North)

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (17th season)

Notable Additions: CB Patrick Peterson, G Isaac Seumalo, ILB Cole Holcomb

Notable Departures: CB Cameron Sutton, S Terrell Edmunds, ILB Devin Bush Jr.

Biggest Reason for Excitement: Their Shockingly Aggressive Approach to Adding Players in the Offseason

Kevin Colbert's 22-year tenure as Steelers GM came to a close immediately following the conclusion of the 2022 NFL Draft. His legacy will be defined by helping continue the unparalleled sustained excellence that the Steelers organization has enjoyed across the past 5 decades by helping bring 2 more rings to the Steel City, finding the perfect successor for Bill Cowher in Mike Tomlin and putting together one of the most impeccable drafting records of any executive in the history of the sport. Omar Khan-who had worked in the Steelers front office since 2001 and was Colbert's top lieutenant from 2016-21-was tapped to be his replacement. In his 1st season with complete roster control, Khan immediately proved that he wasn't Colbert 2.0.

While he wasn't afraid to be aggressive in the draft and sacrifice picks to move up the board, Colbert wasn't a big proponent of building through free agency. Given that he was able to bring in guys like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Ike Taylor, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ben Roethlisberger, Heath Miller, Willie Parker, Lawrence Timmons, Ramon Foster, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith via the draft and UDFA pool, it's completely understandable why he preferred to build rosters with homegrown talent. Now it wouldn't be fair to say that Khan is devaluing the draft,  he just also happens to see the value of addressing needs through free agency and man, did he put together a bold inaugural class. 

Patrick Peterson turned back the clock with his borderline shutdown play with the Vikings last season and should easily fill the top corner slot vacated by Cameron Sutton-who signed with the Lions in free agency. Isaac Seumalo is a well-rounded guard who amounted a ton of big game experience with the Eagles that is exact kind of player this young group needs to take the next step. Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts should provide the smart, steady play at inside linebacker that they failed to get out of Devin Bush and Myles Jack a year ago. As shockingly slow and unengaged as he looked with the Rams last year, Allen Robinson-who was acquired in a trade-is the perfect distressed asset to roll the dice on given how good he was when healthy during his time with the Jaguars and Bears. Signing Chandon Sullivan over Arthur Maulet makes less sense to me since they're paying more for comparable players, but it's a 1-year deal and he's not a bad player by any stretch. Best of all? All of these veteran additions are projected starters and none of them are making more than $8 mil per year. If these moves pan out, don't be surprised if this how Khan continues to do business this way moving forward.    

In terms of the always accurate and never silly draft grading process, Khan also managed to earn high marks for his 1st draft. Broderick Jones is a prototypical massive, athletic anchor of a modern day offensive line that is being viewed as their left tackle of the future despite currently sitting behind Dan Moore Jr.-whose started there each of the past 2 seasons-on the depth chart, Keeanu Benton is a space-eating nose tackle with some pass-rushing pop that will look to continue the rich legacy of the Steelers interior defensive lineman being total matchup nightmares, 6'4, 240 lb pass-rushing specialist Nick Herbig has a speed/strength-driven skill set that's not all that different from fellow University of Wisconsin alumni Watt and being able to land the son of a Steeler great that Colbert inherited when he took over the job by selecting corner Joey Porter Jr. with the 1st pick of the 2nd round wasn't just a great sentimental pick, it was a needed long-term investment in the corner spot since Peterson is 33 and projected #2 corner Levi Wallace is set to hit free agency after this season. Khan's approach is certainly bigger and riskier than Colbert's, but if Steelers history repeats itself, he could end up being just as successful.   

Biggest Reason for Concern: Najee Harris' Effectiveness as an Every-Down Back

In 2021, Najee Harris' uninspiring 3.9 YDS per carry average could easily be explained away by the Steelers horrible offensive line play. In 2022, the Steelers offensive line improved quite a bit with the additions of center Mason Cole and guard James Daniels, Harris managed to get that number down to 3.8 YPC. Harris' productivity gets even more alarming when you take a gander how the other backs did last season. Rookie Jaylen Warren was viewed as an active threat to his starting job due to his explosiveness and vision when he was out there as a change of pace option as he averaged a pretty great 4.9 YPC. Even the notoriously plodding Benny Snell was able to muster up 4.5 YPC in his occasional mop-up role.

After what he did in 2022, you have to begin to question why Harris is the uncontested starter. There's just no reason to give a guy whose relatively ineffective as a rusher and a respectable pass-catcher out of the backfield at best the kind of playing time that allows him to get 300+ touches per season. How does that help a team that will always be committed to the run under an old school meathead coach like Mike Tomlin win games? 

Warren proved as a rookie that he can run, catch passes and hold up in pass protection at a solid clip, so why not at least throw him in a timeshare with Harris? His explosiveness would add a sincere home-run threat to their offense that Harris simply hasn't provided thus far and would likely give Kenny Pickett more freedom to take off himself and make open throws downfield since defenses would have to be more committed to stopping the run. Giving Harris a final crack at being a workhorse to start the year is fair considering that the Steelers invested a 1st round pick in him, but if he continues to look like the same uninspiring runner managing averaging 2-4 YDS 98% of the time he touches the ball and occasionally diving into the endzone he's been over the past 2 seasons, Warren needs to be inserted into the lineup right away.     

Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: A Meaningful Year 2 Jump for Kenny Pickett

The lows from Pickett's 2022 season were among the ugliest I've ever seen from a rookie QB. His 1st start versus the Bills was a textbook example of someone not being ready for the bright lights as he made bad decision after bad decision over all 4 quarters of play, the ugliness that transpired in his paltry performance in the Battle of Pennsylvania game in Philadelphia shouldn't be uttered to anyone and his work in the redzone all season long was concerning as he only completed 38.6% of his passes and threw 5 TD's inside the 20 over his 13 game appearances (12 starts).

Despite all of these red flags and his generally unimpressive stat line (2,404 YDS/7 TD's/9 INT's/63 CMP%/237 Rushing YDS/3 TD's), some flourishes of real potential shined through. His game-winning drive that was capped off with a beautiful 14-YD TD pass to George Pickens in snowy conditions versus the Raiders on Christmas Eve was the stuff of legend, his efficiency as a passer shined through with his excellent accuracy in a few games (Week 7 against the Dolphins, Week 12 versus the Colts, the aforementioned Christmas Eve game against the Raiders) and the resilience he showed after going 2-4 as a starter (as well as losing the Week 4 contest against the Jets in which he replaced Mitch Trubisky after halftime) to regroup and finish the season going 5-0 in games he completed down the stretch (he exited their Week 14 loss to the Ravens in the 1st quarter with a concussion) is pretty impressive.

If he cleans up his redzone passing, makes better decisions and isn't afraid to let it rip when called upon, he'll be well-positioned to make the type of sizable leap he needs to get the Steelers back in a position to compete in the division, if not the conference. Their line should improve with Seumalo and (possibly) Jones coming in to the mix, Dionate Johnson has had a strong camp and appears eager to put his underwhelming 2022 behind him and putting Robinson in the slot alongside the established trio of Johnson, Pickens and Pat Friermuth gives Pickett the luxury of being able to spread the ball across the field in any situation. How much additional responsibility Tomlin and OC Matt Canada feel comfortable giving him in year #2 could ultimately dictate just how much better Pickett gets this season, but if he can prove his game has been cleaned up enough to put more of the offensive responsibilities on his shoulders, the powers that be could feel compelled to open up their offense a bit more than expected and that would be the most exciting thing to happen to the Steelers in roughly 5 years.            

Predicted Standings:

1.Baltimore Ravens (11-6)

2.Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

3.Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

4.Cleveland Browns (6-11)