The grand finale of Hollywood's award season is only 3 days away. Here are the films and people that I expect to be walking away with Oscar gold on Sunday night as well as a look at what my ballot would look like if I had a vote.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
And the Winner is....: La La Land
Call me crazy, but I don't think this is the lock of the century that many people are making it out to be. Given the backlash that stemmed from the "#OscarsSoWhite" controversy over the past two years, I wouldn't be the least surprised if the Academy voted for Moonlight as a way of apologizing for their recent misdeeds. That being said, I still think that the Hollywood setting and its status as a feel-good movie in a turbulent political climate makes La La Land the favorite to be this year's Best Picture winner.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
And the Winner is...: Casey Affleck
Denzel Washington's upset win at the SAG Awards last month has suddenly turned this into a 2-horse race heading into the Oscars. However, I think the storyline of an unheralded veteran actor in Affleck finally getting the recognition he's long deserved is too compelling for Academy voters to pass up.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
And the Winner is....: Emma Stone
Stone's breezy, spellbinding performance has been one of the catalysts for the La La Land mania that's currently sweeping the nation and she's also won every major award leading up to the Oscars. Plus the Academy owes her after failing to recognize her incredible performance in Birdman a couple of years ago.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
And the Winner is....: Mahershala Ali
Out of all the awards being handed out at this ceremony, this is the least suspenseful IMO. This has been Ali's award to lose since Moonlight debuted to rave reviews at Telluride last September and there is just no way in hell that anyone else in this category will be able to overcome the tidal wave of momentum he's built up over the past five months.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
And the Winner is...: Viola Davis
Come Sunday Night, Davis will finally get to add an Oscar to her already overflowing trophy case. Paramount lobbied for Davis in the supporting actress category because they knew there was no way she would lose and that smart decision by the studio's brass will result in a long-overdue Academy Award for one of Hollywood's brightest talents.
Best Director
Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
And the Winner is...: Damien Chazelle
Yet another winner that's basically carved in stone. The work Chazelle did with staging all of the moving parts that are involved with La La Land's treasure trove of elaborate song-and-dance numbers is exactly the type of technically-proficient direction that this award was designed to reward.
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Best Animated Feature Film: Zootopia
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Score: La La Land
Best Original Song: "City of Stars", La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Production Design: La La Land
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: La La Land
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Live Action Short: Timecode
Best Documentary Short: Joe's Violin
My Personal Ballot:
(Note: I haven't seen the following nominated films: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, 20th Century Women, Allied, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hidden Figures, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, Jim: The James Foley Story, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Lion, The Lobster, Loving, A Man Called Ove, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Tanna, Toni Erdmann, Trolls)
Best Picture: Manchester by the Sea
Best Actor: Casey Affleck
Best Actress: Emma Stone
Best Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris
Best Director: Kenneth Lonergan
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Best Adapted Screenplay: Arrival
Best Animated Feature Film: N/A
Best Documentary Feature: 13th
Best Foreign Language Film: N/A
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Score: Moonlight
Best Original Song: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)", La La Land
Best Costume Design: Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Production Design: Arrival
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Visual Effects: Deepwater Horizon
Best Film Editing: Arrival
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Animated Short: N/A
Best Live Action Short: N/A
Best Documentary Short: N/A
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