I'm not going to front, the Oscars appear destined to be pretty uninteresting this year. This perceived lack of excitement has nothing to do with the nominees themselves. I'd actually say that this is one of the better overall groups of nominees in recent memory, which is indicative of the tremendous quality of the movies released in 2019. My qualms have everything to do with the complete lack of drama surrounding the ceremony. While there's always an undeniable degree of predictability to the Oscars, this year's edition is particularly egregious with the winners of just about every notable award being the closest thing to a lock that they can possibly be before the presenters open up the envelope. Here are the films and individuals I expect to walk home with gold statues on Sunday night.
Best Picture:
Nominees:
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
Parasite
And the Winner Is... 1917
Best Picture offers far more intrigue than any of the other major awards since it's the only one of the bunch where the Academy has a history of deviating from the crowd. This year the potential "surprise" winners are Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood-which fits right into the "Hollywood loves movies about itself" cliché and Parasite-a reported favorite among the younger Academy voters that would also allow them to atone for the perceived slight Roma received in this category last year. However, they almost always go the safe route and with its straightforward story of heroism, 1917 fits that bill better than any of the other nominees.
Best Actor:
Nominees:
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
And the Winner Is...: Joaquin Phoenix
The same four people have won the acting honors at every single major awards show, so there's not going to be a lot of in-depth analysis being tossed around here. Phoenix's showy performance in this highbrow take on the origin story of an iconic comic book character is the perfect excuse to give one of the finest actors working today his first Oscar.
Best Actress:
Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)
And the Winner Is...: Renee Zellweger
Zellweger has lapped everyone else in this category a hundred times over at this point. The triumphant comeback tour she's been on these past few months will conclude on the highest possible note when she picks up her second Oscar for her universally acclaimed portrayal of Judy Garland.
Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood)
And the Winner Is...: Brad Pitt
Apparently all you need to do to win Best Supporting Actor is appear in a Quentin Tarantino movie. Barring some kind of shocking late surge from Joe Pesci or Al Pacino, Pitt appears poised to become the third consecutive QT collaborator nominated in this category (Christoph Waltz won for both Inglorious Basterds and Django Unchained) to take home the award. Anybody who wants to be rewarded with Oscar gold for playing second fiddle in Tarantino's reported final film should start forming an orderly queue ASAP.
Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees:
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
And the Winner Is...: Laura Dern
Wrapping up this shoo-in portion of the ceremony is Dern-who is miraculously the only member of the Marriage Story cast that has been able to turn the substantial buzz they received at the beginning of the season into a trophy case full of awards. Since Driver and Johansson are going to go home empty handed, I'm going to treat Dern's well-earned win as an honorary award for the entire ensemble.
Best Director:
Nominees:
Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood)
And the Winner Is...: Sam Mendes
While Bong Joon-Ho has gained some steam in recent weeks, it would be pretty shocking to see Mendes lose at this point after winning the top honor from the Director's Guild-who has agreed with the Academy all but once since 2003 (Ang Lee's 2012 win for Life of Pi was the lone deviation). By making a long take-driven war film that puts the audience literally right in the trenches of World War I, Mendes pulled off the type of unbelievable technical wizardry that this award was designed to honor.
Other Categories:
Best Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in.. Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Women
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best International Feature: Parasite
Best Documentary Feature: American Factory
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Editing: Ford v. Ferrari
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" (Rocketman)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Visual Effects: 1917
Best Animated Short: Hair Love
Best Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Best Live Action Short: Brotherhood
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