Baltimore Ravens
2020 Record: 11-5 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (14th season)
Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, T Alejandro Villanueva, WR Sammy Watkins
Notable Departures: T Orlando Brown, OLB Matthew Judon, RB Mark Ingram
Biggest Reason for Excitement: A full season of J.K. Dobbins as their Top Back
It took a while for Dobbins to carve out a spot in the Ravens crowded backfield rotation last season, but he managed to flourish once he did. The Ohio State product ran for a very impressive 805 YDS and 9 TD's on just 134 carries (that's an average of 6 yards per carry-which was tops among RB's) over the course of 15 games during his rookie season.
With veteran Mark Ingram out of the equation and power rushing specialist Gus Edwards moving back into his traditional 1B change-of-pace role after getting more work than expected last season (a team RB-high 144 carries), Dobbins appears set to take over the starting RB job and will look to find even more success as a feature back than he did as a secondary one. Clearly there's a built in advantage of playing in a run-first system that is spearheaded by a special athlete in Lamar Jackson and features one of the most consistently solid offensive lines in the league (this year's projected starting group of Ronnie Stanley, Bradley Bozeman, Patrick Mekari, Alejandro Villanueva and Kevin Zeitler-the latter two of which were free agent pickups- is no exception), but those schematic advantages shouldn't be used to diminish Dobbins' talent. He's got terrific balance/cutting ability for a back of his size (5'10, 212 lbs) has the power to run people over in the open field and rarely ever commits to the wrong gap.
Being the top option out of the backfield should also allow him to be further incorporated into the passing game. He reeled in 18 of the 24 targets that came his way in 2020 and should be able to give Jackson another safety valve to look towards underneath other than Mark Andrews. If he can stay healthy and not be haunted by the fumbling issues that plagued him in college, Dobbins could very well end up finishing among the leading rushers in the league.
Biggest Question Mark: Defensive Front
It doesn't matter how much changeover the Ravens have on their defensive coaching staff or on-field personnel, it seems like they're always able to assemble a physical, athletic and generally formidable front that can make opposing offense uncomfortable. For the first time in a long time, this trait that has almost always defined their team since they arrived in the league in 1996 could be in jeopardy.
Talent-wise, their losses weren't overly substantial this offseason as edge rushers Matthew Judon-who has been a solid but not overly remarkable performer for them over the past few seasons and Yannick Ngakoue-who was only with them for 9 games last season and picked up just 3 sacks during that time were the lone departures. The difference is that in the past when they've lost key pieces like Adalius Thomas, Za'Darius Smith and Pernell McPhee, they had legit replacements waiting in the wings. This time around, the "next men up" are questionable at best.
The current favorites to take Judon and Ngakoue's spots in the starting lineup are Jaylon Ferguson-who has just 4.5 career sacks in his first 2 NFL season and Justin Houston-who is 32 years old, just signed with the team last week and is coming off a season in which he posted his lowest sack total (8) in a non-injury shortened season since his rookie campaign all the way back in 2011. Rookie Odafe Oweh should also see some reps, but considering that he's still very raw from a technique standpoint, it's not likely that he'll make much of an impact this year.
Adding to the growing concerns over their questionable edge rusher situation is that their potential struggles won't be able to be covered up by the rest of the group. Calias Campbell is going through the inevitable productivity decline that all elite non-quarterbacks in their mid-30's experience, inside linebacker Patrick Queen was a massive liability as a tackler and in coverage during his rookie season in 2020 and Brandon Williams' play has declined to the point over the past couple of seasons where his role as their starting nose tackle could be in question. Don Martindale is a creative enough DC to deal with their potential talent gaps as gracefully as possible and having a top-tier defensive back group (Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott, Jimmy Smith) should be enough to cover up at least some of their deficiencies, but the weird mix of unproven young talent and rapidly aging vets they're trotting out upfront significantly reduces their odds of being a high impact group once again in 2021.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Lamar Jackson Taking Another Step Forward as a Passer
"THE LAMAR JACKSON CAN'T PASS" narrative is something that the 24-year old signalcaller isn't going to be able to escape until he puts forth enough evidence to kill it. 2020 certainly didn't do that as his all around numbers slightly dipped (2,757 YDS/64.4 CMP%/26 TD's/9 INT's/4 lost fumbles/99.3 QBR) from his MVP year in 2019 despite throwing about 25 fewer passes. While Jackson certainly needs to work on getting the ball out more in a timely fashion, using his legs to escape the pocket when it collapses and deep ball accuracy, his progress in 2020 was certainly impeded by the injury/COVID issues that limited his go-to guy Mark Andrews for most of the year, the continued volatility of Marquise Brown and of course, his receivers posting a league-high drop percentage (7.5%) for the 3rd straight season.
As Jackson heads into his 4th NFL season and 3rd as the Ravens full-time starter, he's arguably entering the best situation of his career since the team finally chose to bring in some new blood to prop up their league-worst passing attack from a year ago. 2021 1st round pick Rashod Bateman is a big, physical outside target who was known for his hands/route running skills in college, 4th round pick Tylan Wallace is a massive sleeper who displayed versatility and major YAC ability at Oklahoma State and Sammy Watkins is always a threat to make plays downfield when healthy. Having a healthy Andrews, who should be motivated to atone for his underwhelming 2020 season (58 REC/701 YDS/7 TD's in 14 games) to drive up his value ahead of his pending free agency, should also be a big help. Jackson has flashed some really solid pocket presence/downfield throwing ability throughout his time in the pros and hopefully having some better assets around will allow him to cash in on that potential.
Bottom Line:
A dynamic rushing attack, terrific defensive back group and the reliably solid coaching of John Harbaugh should allow the Ravens to return to the playoffs for the 4th consecutive season.
Cincinnati Bengals
2020 Record: 4-11-1 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DE Trey Hendrickson, CB Mike Hilton, T Riley Reiff
Notable Departures: CB William Jackson III, DE Carl Lawson, WR A.J. Green
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Offensive Firepower
It's remarkable the impact having exciting young talent on the offensive side of the ball can have on a team's expectations. There's no better example of that phenomenon than what's currently going on with the Bengals. People all over the league landscape are so busy swooning over the Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Joe Mixon/Tyler Boyd skill position group that they're choosing to ignore the litany of glaring issues the Bengals have (an inept, alleged bully HC in Zac Taylor, a roster that really stinks at nearly every other position, their clowncar ownership that has basically openly committed to losing for the past 30 years) and choosing to anoint them as the surprise playoff team of 2021.
If it wasn't clear enough above, I'm not a member of this camp. However, the potential that this group has is definitely worth getting pumped up about. Burrow was on track to put together one of the best rookie seasons in league history before he tore his ACL, Higgins was somehow able to remain relatively productive (24 REC/279 YDS/2 TD's in 5 full games) with stiffs like Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen throwing him the ball after Burrow went down, Boyd is as steady of a slot presence as there in this league right now, Chase is an extremely polished WR prospect that just happened to be Burrow's top target during their title run at LSU back in 2019 and despite his abysmal, injury-shortened 2020 campaign (119 CAR/428 YDS/3 TD's in 6 games), Mixon has been too productive over the course of his career to write off his struggles as anything more than just a down year. Now, Burrow's recovery from said ACL tear and their HEINOUS offensive line could very well throw a wrench into their plans to be electric in 2021, but this group could be responsible for bringing some much-needed fireworks to Cincinnati in the near future.
Biggest Question Mark: How Well This Offensive Line Can Hold Up
Burrow's ACL tear almost seemed inevitable based on the level of pass rushing heat he was receiving on a weekly basis. In just 10 games last year, he was sacked 32 times and hit another 72-which tied the rookie record set by Daniel Jones in 2019 and definitely would've been broken had he appeared in more games. After losing their young franchise QB to a major injury in his rookie season, the Bengals obviously went out and addressed this position significantly in the offseason right? Of course not!
The closest thing the Bengals did to beefing up their offensive line was dropping longtime starting right tackle Bobby Hart for Riley Reiff. To be fair, Reiff is a notable upgrade over Hart and has a wealth of experience starting on the left side in case the team needs to kick him over there to replace the oft-injured Jonah Williams-who was the lone bright spot on this group last year when he played. That Being said, this is a guy who is was just released by another team with a garbage offensive line in the VIkings for his poor performance and will be turning 33 in December-so he's basically just a short-term band aid at best and a completely inadequate solution at worst.
Aside from that, we're looking at more or less the same group (center Trey Hopkins, guards Michael Jordan, Xavier Su'a-Filo and Quinton Spain floating between the 2 starting spots, Williams) that both failed to slow down opposing passing rushes or open up rushing lanes last season. No wonder Burrow has reportedly looked so dejected and skittish in training camp. You'd probably be nervous too if you were bracing yourself for another season of taking huge licks from NFL defensive lineman while simultaneously trying to rehab from a major injury.
What's especially frustrating about this situation is that Penei Sewell-who is widely considered to be a generational prospect at tackle- was on the board when they took Chase with the #5 overall pick. While the selection of Chase does make sense to an extent because of his history with Burrow and status as one of the highest ranked WR prospects of the past decade, passing on Sewell to add to what was already a position of strength for the team and in turn further jeopardize Burrow's long-term viability by leaving him open to take beatings every week could be a move that ends up having monumental consequences for this franchise. This whole conversation will be rendered irrelevant if Sewell ends up failing to live up to his profile or 2nd round pick Jackson Carman-who is currently projected to kick inside to guard in the NFL after playing left tackle at Clemson-ends up being a valuable asset, but for now most Bengals fans have got to be livid that they passed on Sewell and are forced to now focus their efforts on hoping that this sad group their trotting out there can hold up well enough to keep Burrow from becoming the next Andrew Luck or David Carr.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Defense Overachieving
Overall, the Bengals defense was pretty poor last season-ranking 22nd in scoring defense, 24th in passing YDS allowed and 29th in rushing YDS allowed. However, there were a couple of bright spots in All-Pro safety Jessie Bates and his running mate Vonn Bell-who put together a career year in his 1st season with the team after coming over from the Saints in free agency- that established some optimism that this group might actually have some young foundational pieces to build around.
With Bates and Bell returning and a slew of new veteran starters (Trey Hendrickson, Mike Hilton, D.J. Reader, Trae Waynes, Chidobe Awuzie) entering the fold, there's a real path to overachieving here. Hendrickson is coming off a terrific 1st season as a full-time starter with the Saints-positing 13.5 sacks and 25 QB hits, Hilton is a super physical corner that excels in zone coverage and can deployed as a blitzer off the edge (he picked up 9.5 and 30 QB hits during his 4 seasons with the Steelers), Reader was an elite space eating run-stuffer during his last season with the Texans in 2019 (he was a COVID opt-out in 2020) and Waynes and Awuzie are both solid depth pieces with ample starting experience that should help fill the void left by top corner William Jackson III's departure in free agency.
Now there are some red flags present within among their new corps, particularly with guys like Hendrickson-who was a complete non-factor in his 1st 3 NFL seasons and Awuzie-who alternated between being a good, versatile secondary piece and a complete liability in coverage throughout his tenure with the Cowboys. But they've all flashed enough recently and have the advantage of all being at the pre-prime stage of their careers where it's completely possible that their past struggles stemmed from a slow transition to the NFL, which is more than enough to justify taking the risk on them.
Bottom Line:
Points will be scored. Highlight reels will be made. The Bengals will still lose way more games than they win.
Cleveland Browns
2020 Record: 11-5 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (2nd season)
Notable Additions: S John Johnson III, DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Troy Hill
Notable Departures: DT Sheldon Richardson, S Karl Joseph, OLB Olivier Vernon
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Their Legit Contenders in the AFC Now!!!
2020 was truly a magical season for the Browns as new HC Kevin Stefanski showed up and transformed this team over night. The unjustly cocky, dysfunctional Browns of 2019 had been replaced by a team that played with passion, grit and discipline on both ends of the ball that made it all the way to the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, and came within 1 possession of beating the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in that game.
Heading into this season, I think it's not only fair, but necessary to declare that the Browns are one of the strongest contenders in the AFC. Baker Mayfield seems to have figured out how to play with swagger without playing heroball, their running back tandem (Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt) is a lethal, well-balanced duo that is exceptionally hard to defend, their offensive line (Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills, Wyatt Teller, J.C. Tretter, Joel Bitonio) quietly morphed into a full blown force of nature last year, budding superstar edge rusher Myles Garrett could finally have a running mate that makes him even more dangerous now that the erratic yet undeniably talented Jadeveon Clowney is lining up alongside him and their secondary-which was their biggest Achilles heel a year ago-got considerably upgraded this offseason with the additions of ballhawk safety John Johnson III, tough outside corner Troy Hill and long, physical rookie slot corner Greg Newsome. If this team really gets cooking down the stretch, don't be surprised if they make it all way to the Super Bowl.
Biggest Question Mark: Durability of Their Secondary
A huge part of why the Browns couldn't keep up with the Chiefs in the Divisional Round was their banged up secondary. Greedy Williams' season-ending shoulder injury during training camp proved to just be the first domino to fall in a year full of consistent instability at that position. Williams' replacement Terrance Mitchell and nickel back M.J. Stewart were the only players in the group that were able to appear in every game and nearly every other key piece (Denzel Ward, Ronnie Harrison, Kevin Johnson, Karl Joseph, Andrew Sendejo) missed between 2-5 games and played hurt in several others. As game as each player was to step up and play when/wherever they were needed, the lack of continuity caused by the constant shuffling around and guys coming back before they were fully healthy regularly left them with vulnerable spots on the back end-which is evidenced by their 22nd rank in passing defense.
Even with a bit of an overhauled group this season (Johnson, Joseph, Mitchell and Sendejo are all gone), the concerns over the health of this group still remain. John Johnson III missed the final 10 games of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury, Troy Hill has missed at least 2 games in all but 2 of his 6 NFL seasons and Greg Newsome's extensive injury history at Northwestern was the reason he was available at the end of the 1st round while returning key pieces Ward and Williams have both missed significant time with assorted ailments in their short careers (Ward has missed 11 games in his first 3 NFL season and in addition to his season-long absence in 2020, Williams missed 5 games in 2019). There's a lot of to like about this group: Ward has a real shot of blossoming into an elite shutdown corner within the next couple of seasons, Johnson is one of the best young safeties in the league and Hill was a huge asset for the Rams shutdown secondary over the past few seasons. They just happen carry a much higher rate of durability concerns than most and that could be enough to significantly damage the great things this team has going for them.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: A Healthy Odell Beckham Jr.
After enduring an entire offseason full of trade rumors following a so-so debut campaign with the Browns in 2019, Odell Beckham Jr. started to silence his critics with a pretty impressive start to his 2020 campaign (23 REC/319 YDS/3 TD, 3 CAR/72 YDS/1 TD through 6 games). Unfortunately for OBJ, his comeback campaign went down in flames in the 1st quarter of their Week 7 contest with the Bengals when he went down with a torn ACL after attempting to make a tackle following an INT. It was just the latest in a string of tough breaks for the 28-year old, who has struggled to return to the dominant level of play he displayed when he became an overnight household name following 3 consecutive 1,300+ YD/10+ TD seasons to start off his career.
The road back to glory for Beckham is going to be really tough as he is nearing the age when coming back from ACL tears starts to get really tricky-especially as WR that heavily relies on explosiveness/YAC ability to make plays-but if he pulls it off, the Browns offense could be in line for a huge boost. Beckham is the type of game-breaking presence who has the route-running ability and elusiveness to make plays at every level of the field from both the outside and in the slot . Think about what having that type of presence in this offense would do for opening up the running game and giving Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and the rest of their receivers opportunities to run wide open all over the field. If OBJ can beat the odds and pull off this comeback, don't be surprised if a Comeback of the Year honor or even a Lombardi trophy follows.
Bottom Line:
The Browns have the deep roster, mental toughness and sound coaching combo that's required to be taken seriously as contenders in this league. Put them up there with the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills on the list of top of contenders in the AFC.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (15th season)
Notable Additions: OLB Melvin Ingram, G Trai Turner, QB Dwayne Haskins
Notable Departures: G David DeCastro, CB Steven Nelson, OLB Bud Dupree
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Defensive Corps
Usually losing 2 starting corners (Steven Nelson, Mike Hilton) and an edge rusher whose posted 19.5 sacks in his last 27 games played (Bud Dupree) would leave a defense in rough shape, but most teams aren't blessed with the level of talent the Steelers have. While losing Nelson and Hilton has undeniably weakened their corner depth and is forcing an unproven player in Antoine Brooks Jr. to line up next to Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton, the rest of this group is at least just as good as they were last season.
Ex-Charger Melvin Ingram is a great late addition to their pass rushing rotation who could really thrive in a situational role, Alex Highsmith could be in line for a true breakout season in his 1st year as a full-time starter after playing exceptionally well in relief of the injured Dupree during the final 5 games of last season and most importantly, their trio of 2020 All-Pro Selections (T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick) are all back in the fold with no limitations to start the year.
Then there's of course the potential added pot sweeteners of having Devin Bush successfully return from an ACL tear and seeing safety Terrell Edmunds take another step forward after his surprisingly decent 2020 campaign. Given all of the very pressing concerns about the trajectory of this team moving forward, at least they have a high quality defense that will be able to keep them in every game and even help them win some on their own.
Biggest Question Mark: Offensive Line
Let's do a quick where are they now for the Week 1 offensive line starters on last year's Steelers team. Left tackle Alejandro Villanueva signed with the rival Ravens in free agency, right guard Matt Filer exited for the Chargers in free agency, center Maurkice Pouncey retired, left guard David DeCastro got released in a surprise move last month and right tackle Zack Banner is back with the team after tearing his ACL in said Week 1 game against the Giants and is currently projected to shift over to left tackle to start this season. While the 2020 group had their issues (especially with run blocking), they were a generally decent group overall and losing the bulk of the key cogs all at once isn't ideal to say the least.
What's even more alarming than the mass exodus is who was brought in to compete for these 4 vacant spots. Joe Haeg was the swing tackle for the Bucs last year and was literally the only veteran that wasn't a 62-year old running back that they let walk in free agency, Rashaan Coward was a well below average backup guard with the Bears who struggled immensely whenever he was forced to start over the past couple of seasons, B.J. Finney is an ex-Steeler who admirably held Pouncey's water bottle for years, but didn't play well at all when he actually played some significant snaps during his stints with the Seahawks and Bengals over the past 2 seasons and Trai Turner graded out as the single worst guard in football last year with the Chargers. Incumbent Steelers Chukwuma Okorafor-who played pretty poorly in relief of Banner last season and J.C. Hassenauer-who was below average in a few late season fill-in starts for the injured Pouncey in 2020- also figure to be involved in the competition. Not exactly a group of future All-Pros there...
Really the only hope they have towards ensuring that rookie Najee Harris won't have to break 6 tackles to gain 4 YDS and Ben Roethlisberger doesn't end up in a Western Pennsylvania morgue by Halloween comes down to a pair of unknowns: Banner seamlessly bouncing back from an ACL tear at a position he hasn't played in the NFL and rookie center/guard Kendrick Green coming in and playing at a semi-respectable level right away. Short of that miracle situation unfolding, it seems like its going to be a very long season for this new look Steelers o-line.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Keeping Ben Roethlisberger Engaged for a Full Season
I was extremely perplexed as to why the news of Ben Roethlisberger coming back for another season was widely viewed as cause for celebration within Steelers circles. As soon as the Steelers undefeated season went out the window in Week 13 against Washington, Big Ben looked like he was ready to tap out and by the time the playoffs rolled around, he had visibly given up on even pretending to try.
As he enters his 18th season with the Steelers at the age of 39, there's a very simple question to ask: What motivation does he have to be great at this juncture of his career? It sure as hell isn't legacy. He might not be Brady, Manning or Rodgers, but his 2 rings, 11 playoff appearances, 60,000+ career passing YDS and strong career record (169-83-1 including playoffs) are more enough to guarantee him a 1st ballot enshrinement in Canton.
How about his teammates? I have no idea how he feels about the other veteran leaders on the team like Heyward, Watt and Haden, but do you think he really gives a shit about JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dionate Johnson and the other whippersnappers on this team who talk a lot of shit and sometimes struggle to catch his wobbly ass throws? Not a chance.
Throw in the possibility of getting flat out assaulted behind what could possibly be the worst offensive line he's ever played with and being in a division that's shaping up to be very competitive, and you can a very clear path forming for Big Ben to sleepwalk his way through 2021.
But if by some miracle, Roethlisberger shows up motivated for what is believed to be his final NFL season, the doomed course the Steelers appear to be set for could easily be reset and they could end up returning to the thick of the playoff mix.
Bottom Line:
The bottom fell out on this Steelers squad when they dropped 5 of their last 6 games last season and with all the talent they've lost and an indifferent Ben Roethlisberger still under center, all signs point to that negative trend following them into 2021.
Projected Standings:
1.Cleveland Browns (13-4)
2.Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
3.Pittsburgh Steelers (6-11)
4.Cincinati Bengals (5-12)
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