Chicago Bears
2020 Record: 8-8 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (4th season)
Notable Additions: QB Andy Dalton, RB Damien Williams, CB Desmond Trufant
Notable Departures: QB Mitch Trubisky, CB Kyle Fuller, T Charles Leno
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Justin Fields
What a difference a month and a half makes. In mid-March, the Bears were expected to head into 2021 with cheap veteran free agent pickup Andy Dalton as their all but officially locked in starting quarterback after the Seahawks rebuffed their trade offer for Russell Wilson and fans were understandably livid. Their poor QB play, particularly from the lumbering Nick Foles, cost them multiple wins last season and going with a mediocre pocket passer whose play has been steadily decreasing since 2016 felt like a move that guaranteed they would suffer a similar fate in 2021. Then on draft night in late April, the Bears stunned the league by getting aggressive and trading up to select Ohio State product Justin Fields after he surprisingly slipped out of the top 10. While Fields isn't expected to start over Dalton right away, his entry into the Bears QB room has completely changed the complexion of their situation at the position.
Fields brings the type of skill set to Chicago that Matt Nagy has been clamoring for since he arrived in 2018. He's an accurate, strong-armed passer that can attack defenses downfield as well as an exceptional athlete that can make things happen with his legs. Not to mention, he's won early raves from camp for his leadership, work ethic and quickness in picking up the offense. If he manages to take over the starting job this year and these promising early returns translate to actual games, the sneaky high potential of this offensive corps (Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, new addition Damien Williams) should be able to get tapped into and the Bears might actually blossom into something more than just the middling team whose defense is the only thing preventing from being terrible.
Obviously the Bears doomed history at QB makes it impossible to not fear the worst for Fields's fate in the NFL. However, the makeup of this player and being in the unfamiliar position of drafting the highly touted guy that slid down the board for no real reason opposed to the laughing stocks who took the unproven guy too early (see Cade McNown, Rex Grossman and Mitch Trubisky) that they usually are makes me cautiously optimistic that things with this prospective franchise signalcaller could actually be different.
Biggest Question Mark: Cornerbacks
Now an area where the offseason criticism of Ryan Pace still holds up is the bizarre choices he made with which veterans he chose to cut to get under the cap. Headlining this list-that also included starting tackles Charles Leno and Bobby Massie- is longtime top corner Kyle Fuller. While Fuller had definitely regressed from his insane All-Pro campaign in 2018 where he led the league with 7 INT's and had 20 passes defensed, he was still a steady presence on the outside that usually limited the impact of the opponent's top receiver.
With Fuller gone, a whole Pandora's Box of issues at the position have opened up. Their corner depth that was already steadily diminishing with the departures of Prince Amukamara, Bryce Callahan and Sherick McManis in recent seasons has reached a code red as they look to thumb through a myriad of unproven options (Duke Shelley, Kindle Vildor, notorious draft bust Teez Tabor, 2021 6th round pick Thomas Graham Jr.) to fill out the depth chart, 2nd year player Jaylon Johnson-who did show flashes of greatness during his rookie year-will be thrown into the fire as the #1 corner despite missing the final 4 games of 2020 with a shoulder injury and their 2nd outside corner spot seems destined to be settled by a camp battle between the washed up, oft-injured Desmond Trufant and the volatile Artie Burns, who also happens to be coming off a torn ACL that sidelined him for the entire 2020 season. Having a powerhouse front 7 that could conceivably be better this year with nose tackle Eddie Goldman returning to the fold and Roquan Smith hopefully continuing his upward trajectory at inside linebacker, and a reliable veteran starting safety pair in Eddie Jackson and Tashaun Gibson working alongside them should take some pressure off these guys, but new DC Sean Desai is going to have to work really hard to figure whose going to line up where and probably cross his fingers that this mystery-soaked group doesn't get carved up by the many high-powered passing offense their set to face in 2021.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Offensive Line Health and Continuity
A sneaky big problem for the Bears over the past 2 seasons has been the revolving door they've experienced at offensive line caused by a combination of injuries and trotting out jabronis that just can't play the game. Things changed a bit during the stretch run of 2020 when they were able to field an offensive line featuring the same 5 players (Charles Leno, Alex Bars, Cody Whitehair, Germain Ifedi, Sam Mustipher) for an extended period of time for the 1st time all season and their effectiveness on offense subsequently skyrocketed with David Montgomery rushing for 598 YDS/7 TD's and Allen Robinson logging 39 REC/495 YDS/3 TD's over the last 6 games.
Now, re-establishing continuity in 2021 is going to be a little bit difficult. Both of their Week 1 starting tackles from a year ago (Massie, Leno) were cut, they're in all likelihood going to be starting a rookie (Teven Jenkins) at LT and they're going to have figure who exactly will be in the starting lineup now that's everybody healthy. Despite the challenges they're currently facing with reshuffling and nailing down the right group, the Bears do have a solid pool of players to chose from.
Jenkins was a certified mauler in college who performed very well against top competition, James Daniels was playing the best football of his career before he tore his pec against the Bucs in early October, new tackle depth piece Elijah Wilkinson logged 26 starts over the past 3 seasons with the Broncos, the long-struggling Ifedi had arguably his best year as a pro during his 1st season with the Bears both Bars and Mustispher held up pretty decently during their 1st run of being starters in the NFL and Whitehair has been among the better interior lineman in the league for much of the past 6 seasons. If this group can stay fortunate in the health department (they've already experienced some problems on that front as Jenkins has already missed practice time with a back ailment and Ifedi is currently on PUP with a hip flexor strain), this group should be solid enough to help establish the running game and create more opportunities for their QB's to get the ball to their receivers downfield.
Bottom Line:
After sliding ass backwards into the playoffs last season, durability concerns surrounding their offensive line and talent concerns surrounding their cornerbacks group paired with a brutal schedule (AFC North+NFC West+ Buccaneers) should be enough to derail their efforts to return there for the 2nd straight season.
Detroit Lions
2020 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Dan Campbell (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Jared Goff, WR Tyrell Williams, DT Michael Brockers
Notable Departures: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, K Matt Prater
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Dan Campbell Press Conferences
Back in the fall of 2015 when the Dolphins fired Joe Philbin in-season and named tight ends coach Dan Campbell interim head coach, an unexpected star was born. Campbell, who played tight end in the NFL from 1999-2009 before immediately transitioned to coaching with the Dolphins in 2010, let everybody know he was going to be an old school coach right away by giving insane press conferences centered around his desire for his team to physically destroy their opponent and spitting in the face of CTE by running Oklahoma drills at practice. The Dolphins only ended up going 5-7 with him at the helm, but watching Campbell effectively blackout and speak in hardo tongues every time he stepped in front of a microphone made his brief tenure as the head man in Miami endlessly entertaining.
After 5 years long years away during his stint as the tight ends and assistant head coach with the Saints, Campbell is back where he belongs: In front of a microphone spewing rambling meathead nonsense. The early returns have been fantastic as he referenced his players taking bites out of the opponent's flesh during his introductory press conference, admitted that he drinks 2 large coffees that each have 2 espresso shots in them every single day and just yesterday praised ownership and the previous regime for handing him a team that has "no turds on it". Will press conferences full of lively soundbites translate to wins? Probably not. There's absolutely zero evidence that Campbell can actually coach and the fact that his coordinators are Anthony Lynn-whose stock has tanked significantly after back-to-back seasons full of head-scratching decisionmaking/clock management as the Chargers HC and Aaron Glenn-who is a first time DC that's only worked with defensive backs during his 7 years of coaching-only adds to that abundant skepticism around the areas of coaching that don't involve passion and gassing guys up. Even if things do end up going poorly, it took the Lions 3 years to fire Matt Patricia, so we should have at least a few solid years of Campbell's exquisite macho word salads to look forward to.
Biggest Question Mark: Who Other Than T.J. Hockenson is Going to Catch Passes for Them
You gotta feel for Jared Goff. Not only did Sean McVay make him the fall guy for the Rams "underachieving" in the 2 seasons following their Super Bowl appearance on his way out of LA, the team traded him to receiver Siberia in Detroit in the deal that landed them longtime Lions starter Matthew Stafford. Goff will be going from having a deep arsenal of reliable targets including Cooper Kuup, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee to literally 1 guy he can rely on in rising young star tight end T.J. Hockenson, who put together a very nice sophomore campaign (67 REC/723 YDS/6 TD's) in the midst of dealing with a QB carousel in the wake of Stafford's prolonged absence with an injury and general offensive ineffectiveness.
This suddenly bleak pass catcher situation in Detroit was brought on by letting both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. walk in free agency. In fairness to the Lions, they weren't wrong to let either guy go. Golladay is a huge injury liability that was asking for $20+ mil per season and Jones just turned 31 and has probably no more than 2 years of good football left in him. They're a rebuilding team and re-signing either or both of those guys would've fallen under the umbrella of the type of moves you don't make unless you're in a better position to win now.
Here's the problem though: They also dedicated no significant assets to overhauling the position. They didn't draft a WR until the 4th round (Amon-Ra St.Brown-who I admittedly think has the potential to develop into a solid NFL WR if he can work on his consistency and hands) and filled out the room by going on a cheap free agent spree that was headlined by the oft-injured Tyrell Williams, journeyman deep threat Breshad Perriman and 2020's most obscure single week fantasy star Chad Hansen. Rounding out this ragtag cast of receivers are returning backups Quintez Cephus, who did surprisingly average 17.5 YDS per reception last year in relief of the injured Golladay and Geronimo Allison, who was a 2020 opt-out. Baring a surprise St. Brown rookie breakout, it seems like Goff won't get much out of his WR's outside of the occasional splash play and will have to rely on Hockenson and his RB tandem of D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams to be his primary targets.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Attempts at Playing a "Black and Blue" Style of Football Actually Working
With their questionable pass catchers, strong offensive line led by Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker and rookie Penei Sewell and a coach that probably hasn't added a football concept to his arsenal that was invented after 1975, the Lions appear to be gearing up to play an old school, smashmouth style of football. Outside of the offensive line,which is certainly suited to grit their teeth and punch opponents in the mouth, it's fair to question if they have the horses to pull that off.
Swift is more of a shifty, dual-threat secondary option (he only logged 159 touches as a rookie) than a full blown workhorse back that also happened to missed 3 games with a hamstring issue last season and is already nursing a groin injury during training camp while Williams-despite being a reasonably powerful runner- has never been a high volume guy in the pros (he's never had a 200 touch season and his workload has decreased every year since receiving 177 touches as a rookie in 2017).
Plus there's the whole unspoken RB curse that has plagued the Lions since Barry Sanders left (only 2 Lions RB's have ran for 1,000+ YDS since Sanders retired in 1998) that could put a serious wrench into the whole run first offense plan. Swift and Williams do complement each other well though and if they can stay healthy, they could end up being the most productive backfield duo the Lions have had since Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.
The other requirement for being a "Black and Blue" style team is an imposing defensive front and surely don't have that. They ranked 28th against the run last season and still don't really have an single established differencemaker in their midst outside of ex-Patriots duo Trey Flowers and Jamie Collins. What do they have however, is some sneaky potential underneath all the ugly numbers (in addition to the poor, they ranked dead last in yards/points allowed, 30th in pass defense and tied for 27th in sacks). Adding a trio of interior space-eaters in Michael Brockers, Alim McNeill and Levi Onzwurizke to an already respectable rotation of rush-stuffers (Da'Shawn Hand, Flowers, John Penisini) should significantly aid them in their quest to slow down their division rivals who all at least seek to establish dominance in the running game and Romeo Okwara looks like he could be turning into a really solid player after putting up 10 sacks last season with very limited help around him.
Plenty of these guys have flashed on both sides of the equation: Swift was really dangerous with the ball in his hands down the stretch, Flowers is one of the most instinctive and quietly disruptive edge players in the game today and Okwara might be in the middle of a mid-career ascension. With a little bit luck on the health front and maybe some unexpected support from a young player like Charles Harris that hasn't yet found the right fit in the NFL, this group could be the obnoxious, physical bullies Campbell wants them to be.
Bottom Line:
Unless Dan Campbell is secretly a coaching savant and this roster is full of hidden gems, the rebuilding Lions are going to be stuck in the basement of the NFC North and the league on the whole for another year in 2021.
Green Bay Packers
2020 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (3rd season)
Notable Additions: WR Randall Cobb, T Dennis Kelly, OLB De'Vondre Campbell
Notable Departures: C Corey Linsley, CB Tramon Williams (retired), ILB Christian Kirksey
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Aaron Rodgers Showed Up...
After a months-long standoff with the front office, Aaron Rodgers ended his highly publicized offseason soap opera on the least dramatic note possible by arriving on time to Packers training camp. The collective sigh of relief breathed by the organization and its fans following Rodgers' unexpected punctual entrance could probably be heard through the entire state of Wisconsin. Nobody wanted the Jordan Love-era to start immediately after Rodgers had his best season in a decade and led them all the way to an NFC Championship game, and now that they got their wish, the hunt for that elusive 5th Lombardi trophy feels like it's back on.
Biggest Question Mark: ...But Does He Care Enough to Try?
Unlike last season where Rodgers came in hungry to prove that drafting Love was a huge mistake, this season feels like it could result in the polar opposite. While the chip on his shoulder may reactivate now that he's back in football mode, his public actions over the past 6 months would indicate that he might be too relaxed to take heads on the field anymore. He spent an offseason hosting Jeopardy, golfing with Tom Brady on national television and going on assorted couples trips with fiancé Shailene Woodley and her good friend Miles Teller and his wife. Could this have just been his way of taking a break from football for a bit like Rob Gronkowski does every year? Of course, but Rodgers is a 37 going on 38 year old QB whose already cemented himself as one of the greatest players to ever play the position and might just be ready to coast until he decides to hang it up.
Then there's the very important question of why is he going to be compelled to bust his ass for an organization that he believes disrespected him. Sure he loves his teammates and I don't think he hates Matt LaFluer enough to willingly engage in a mutiny against him, but the primary people that get rewarded when a team wins are the people at the top and I think it's very possible that Rodgers has in it him to actively punish Brian Gutekunst for the way he was treated.
For starters, tanking would be a surefire way to shoot his ass out of town. The Packers have the heir apparent waiting in the wings and there'd be no reason to keep Rodgers if he wasn't still playing at a high level.
A poor season would also likely have very minimal impact on his trade value. His perceived top suitor is the Broncos-who have consistently had some of the worst quarterback play in the league since Peyton Manning's last functional season in 2014 and would likely still give up a fat draft haul if the Drew Lock/Teddy Bridgewater duo can't get the job done this year.
Finally, Guntekunst would be the one left holding the bag for their failure since he refused to honor Rodgers' pretty simple requests (being involved in personnel decisions like Brady, Manning and Drew Brees were for years, a trade from Green Bay as a result of not having a voice in personnel moves) and thus opened the door for such a situation to occur. It's clearly a very petty plan that would hurt a lot of other people in the organization including himself, but it should be at least entertained as a possibility as the unpredictable madness of the regular season fast approaches.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: An Engaged Aaron Rodgers
It's unfair to gloss over the other talent the Packers have outside of Rodgers. Jaire Alexander could very well be the best young corner in the game, Aaron Jones is one of the most lethal dual-threat backs in the league, David Bakhtiari is already a lock for Canton, Za'Darius Smith has emerged as a menacing pass-rusher since joining the Packers in 2019, their starting safety duo (Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage) are under-the-radar stars and Davante Adams is probably the single most feared outside receiver/redzone threat in the entire league. However, those guys aren't the reason the Packers are contenders. That falls entirely on #12's shoulders and if you don't have him playing, they're a middling-to-decent team at best.
Sound absurd? Look at what happened in the NFC Championship Game against the Bucs. Their defense did everything they could to get them back in the game in the 2nd half after trailing 24-10 at halftime by picking off Tom Brady an absurd 4 times and Rodgers' failure to capitalize on those turnovers is the only reason they didn't complete their rally against the eventual Super Bowl Champs. Rodgers has been hamstrung by plenty of bad breaks (the Brandon Bostick fumble, a defense that was useless against the run against the 49ers) and conservative playcalling at the worst possible times (LaFluer in the 4th quarter against Tampa, Mike McCarthy in most key situations during his tenure in Green Bay), but when he's engaged and cooking, nothing is going to stop him from winning and that transcendent level of play is what it's going to take for him to finally secure ring #2 and take a valuable step towards shaking his reputation as a perpetual underachiever.
Bottom Line:
This team will go as far as Rodgers can take them and if he's playing even remotely well, they should run away with this division yet again.
Minnesota Vikings
2020 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (7th season)
Notable Additions: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DT Sheldon Richardson, CB Patrick Peterson
Notable Departures: S Anthony Harris, T Riley Reiff, TE Kyle Rudolph
Biggest Reason for Excitement: High Probability Their Front 7 Bounces Back
Perhaps the weirdest thing about watching the Vikings in 2020 was how shitty they were up front. Mike Zimmer-coached teams don't tend to be soft in the trenches and that unusual weakness led to them getting run over on the regular in the running game (27th overall) and miserably failing to sustain a pass rush (21 sacks, which ranked 28th in the league). Digging deeper into the overall numbers reveals their entire defense stunk (30th in scoring defense, 25th in passing defense, 4th in missed tackles), but their failures upfront were a bigger part of why the team underachieved and ultimately missed the playoffs last season.
A combination of key guys returning from injury and using their limited free agency flexibility to add some proven veteran talent to their defensive interior should change that outlook tremendously.
Top edge performers Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr appeared in a combined total of 2 games last season after sustaining major injuries (Hunter herniated a disc in his neck right before the season started, Barr tore his pec in a game against the Colts in mid-September) and their returns alone should help stabilize this group. Barr has been a pillar of their run defense for years and Hunter ripped off back-to-back 14.5 sack campaigns in 2018 and 2019 that landed him a pair of All-Pros selections. If they can return at anything above half strength, life will get a whole lot easier for Zimmer, fellow front 7 cornerstone piece Eric Kendricks and the rest of the other returning guys that suffered in their absence.
Defensive tackle was more of a pressing issue as they had zero depth at the spot and last year's starters (Jaleel Johnson, Shamar Stephen) were complete liabilities. Enter Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson. Ex-Giant Tomlinson establishing himself as an elite run defender during his 4 year stint in New York while Richardson is more of a gamble after bouncing around the league a bit since 2017, but he's an undeniable talent who can play the run and get after the quarterback that played well during his previous stint with the Vikings in 2018.
A lot of pressure is riding on this group as they still have a secondary that's in flux with a suspect corner group (Cameron Dantzler, Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, Mackenzie Alexander) that's even more unsettled following the release of 2020 1st round pick Jeff Gladney due to a domestic violence arrest and a new starting safety in Xavier Woods that just happens to be a big downgrade from the departed Anthony Harris, but if they can deliver, that backend liability will be never exposed and the Vikings can return to the familiar comfort of having the offense be the ones that are responsible for blowing games late.
Biggest Question Mark: Kirk Cousins
In a normal year, there's plenty of reasons to be concerned about trotting out Kirk Cousins at starting quarterback. Between his struggles in primetime, against teams with winning records and securing the football when he gets hit, it's usually just a matter of time before he manages to cost his team games.
Now adding to the shakiness of the Kirk Cousins Experience is his refusal to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Just last week after being forced to quarantine after being a close contact of someone that tested positive, Cousins promised to "surrond himself with plexiglass" to prevent himself from becoming a close contact again. "Why not just get the vaccine Kirk?", a reporter followed up with. Cousins replied with the timeless classic "It's a personal choice" line.
Cousins' vaccine position is hardly surprising as he's one of the most devoutly religious people in the NFL and seems to believe that his love of the Good Lord will prevent him from contracting the virus. Unfortunately for Kirk, the Good Lord may also derail his season if he gets COVID and is forced to miss 2 weeks per the new NFL rule for unvaccinated players who test positive or are named a close contact.
Now let's race through a hypothetical situation real quick. Say the Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot late in the years then Cousins gets sidelined and rookie Kellen Mond has to the take the field and his poor play ends up taking them out of contention. Or even worse for Cousins, Mond outshines him and he's out of a job at the end of the year. Maybe then Cousins would wish he had looked somewhere a little closer home than the sky for medical guidance.
His new teammate Patrick Peterson has been particularly vocal about how vaccination isn't just the right thing to do from a common sense medical perspective, but from a football perspective as it significantly lowers the odds of a player having to sit on the sidelines for 2 weeks. Sadly for Peterson, his team is among the worst in the league on the vaccine front and the deference of his QB is probably a large reason why that's happening. There's a very clear doomsday scenario lurking in the shadows and ready to bring holy hell down on the Vikings and if it happens, Cousins deserves to get crushed
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Grinding Out Wins Against Quality Opponents
This key could really be applied to any Vikings team over the past 5 seasons. Last season was the closest thing they had to a justification for this troubling staple of their team since their defensive woes made them a lot more vulnerable than usual and it showed with them going 0-7 against teams with winning records and 1-8 against playoff teams (the lone win came against the 8-8 Bears).
It's getting to the point where these struggles against quality opponents are just straight up baffling. A team that has an offense led by the likes of Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and potential superstar Justin Jefferson should not be this bad against the league's top teams. Their ability to attack defenses in a variety of ways up and down the field alone should be enough to secure some wins in big spots against the best teams, but whether it's because of the play of Cousins or the offensive line or just simply a case of bad luck, it just hasn't happened for them yet. If Zimmer and co. ever want to be anything more than the tweener playoff team they are on an almost annual basis, they're going to have to stop folding at such an alarming rate against quality competition.
Bottom Line:
For better or worse, the near certainty of an improved defense to go with their high-powered offense should bring the Vikings back to the level of play we're used (Wild Card Spot, quick, embarrassing exit from the postseason) to seeing from them.
Projected Standings:
1.Green Bay Packers (12-5)
2.Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
3.Chicago Bears (7-10)
4.Detroit Lions (3-14)
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