Sunday, January 29, 2023

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Divisional Round Record: 3-1 (Correct: Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers Incorrect: Bills)

Overall Record: 8-2

Philadelphia Eagles over San Francisco 49ers:  As tight as both Championship games are on paper, this one strikes me as even more of a coin flip than the AFC showdown. The 49ers have the best overall defense in the league and a dynamic rushing attack that could possibly exploit the Eagles vastly improved, but still far from impervious run D while the Eagles have a deep arsenal of effective pass rushers and a lockdown pass defense that could force the 49ers become one-dimensional. Ultimately, I think the defenses are both good enough to cancel each other out, which means this is likely going to come down to which offense is better equipped to score against a top-tier defense. The answer to that question for me is the Eagles. Their offense line is skilled enough to slow down Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Samson Ebukam upfront, the 49ers top corner Charvarius Ward is vulnerable to getting beat by tall, physical wideouts (just look what DK Metcalf did to him in the Wild Card round)-which could give AJ Brown a key advantage on the outside and the unpredictable playcalling that their offensive versatility provides them with likely won't give DeMeco Ryans the luxury of selling out to stop Jalen Hurts from using his legs to make plays, the receivers from getting open downfield or Miles Sanders or Kenneth Gainwell from popping off out of the backfield. Plus, there's been enough cracks in Brock Purdy's play over the past 2 playoff games to believe that he could struggle when taken out of the friendly confines of Levi's Stadium and put into the hornet's nest that is Lincoln Financial Field when the Eagles have a chance to advance to their 1st Super Bowl since they won the whole damn thing in 2017. 

Cincinnati Bengals over Kansas City Chiefs: Given how much public shit-talking has occurred ahead of this game, the losing team and their fans are headed towards an excruciating offseason. While the Bengals-who have been the mouthier of the 2 teams-could very well be setting themselves up for a massive letdown by doing boneheaded things like referring to Arrowhead Stadium as "Burrowhead Stadium" (they're 3-0 against the Chiefs since January 2021, although only last year's AFC Championship was in Kansas City), I just can't pick against them while Patrick Mahomes is playing with a high ankle sprain and Travis Kelce is dealing with back spasms. The Bengals banged-up offensive line held up tremendously well against the Bills last week and as long as they don't let the somehow still underrated homewrecker Chris Jones run completely wild on the interior, they should be able to keep this aggressive yet not overwhelmingly imposing front from consistently disrupting the flow of their offense and their defense appears to be dialed-in enough at every level at the moment to prevent Mahomes from killing them from inside the pocket or Isiah Paheco from jumpstarting the offense with his tough running like he did last week against the Jaguars.

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