Showing posts with label NFL divisional round predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL divisional round predictions. Show all posts

Friday, January 10, 2020

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Wild Card Record: 1-3 (Correct: Seahawks Incorrect: Bills, Patriots, Saints)
Overall: 1-3

Minnesota Vikings over San Francisco 49ers:
Congrats to the Vikings for proving just about every NFL pundit and fan wrong with a ballsy road win against the Saints last weekend. As reluctant as I am to put my faith into Kirk Cousins after one pretty good performance, I think the Vikings are a tough matchup for the 49ers and have a solid chance of knocking them off on their home turf. Dalvin Cook should be able to feast against the 49ers average rush defense (17th in the league), the Vikings have enough receiving talent to expose the vulnerabilities they have at corner next to the resurgent Richard Sherman and their physical defense could cause problems for a 49ers offense that drastically fluctuates in effectiveness on a week-to-week basis.

Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry almost solely dragged the Titans to an ugly Wild Card upset over the Patriots. Unless Ryan Tannehill is able to get the passing attack going against a tough Ravens secondary that is pretty similar to the group he struggled mightily against last week, the Titans are highly unlikely to make it back-to-back road victories. Even without the question marks surrounding Mark Ingram's health, the Titans don't seem equipped to stop the Ravens dynamic rushing attack and unlike the Patriots, the Ravens have a front that isn't likely to be completely overpowered by Henry.

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans: On an exhilarating and exhausting Wild Card Weekend, the Texans and Bills provided fans with a back-and-forth blunderfest that finally came to a close after Deshaun Watson ripped the Bills fans hearts out by somehow evading a sack and making a ridiculous throw to backup running back Taiwan Jones that set up the game-winning field goal in overtime. This is a long way of saying that the Texans were incredibly fortunate to beat the Bills at home last weekend and I can't see a non-drastic scenario where Bill O'Brien or this depleted defense is able to outduel a Chiefs team loaded with offensive weapons and aggressive pass-rushers that have been playing their best football of the season over the past month.

Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks:
It's honestly hard for me to not pick the Seahawks here. Russell Wilson has the best playoff track record of any quarterback that's playing in the Divisional Round, Pete Carroll should be able to coach circles around Matt LaFluer and with the possible exception of rushing the passer, there's not a single thing that the Packers have done well on a regular basis all season long. However, health can be a huge benefit this time of year and the Packers have a clear edge in that department as about half of the Seahawks opening day roster is currently on IR, which puts Aaron Rodgers and co. in a good spot to eek out a victory over one of the league's most resilient teams.

Friday, January 11, 2019

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Wild Card Record: 1-3 (Correct: Colts Incorrect: Seahawks, Ravens, Bears)
Overall Record: 1-3

Indianapolis Colts over Kansas City Chiefs: Using history as the basis for my picks last week pretty much completely backfired. Were those incorrect predictions enough for me to stop this silly superstitious practice this week? Absolutely not. That being said, the Chiefs extensive struggles in the playoffs (1-10 record including 0 wins at home since 1994) isn't the primary reason I'm picking the Colts. Andy Reid's team simply hasn't been the same since Kareem Hunt was released and with their offense looking less explosive over the past month, a Colts squad that boasts a very solid defense and an offense with the firepower to exploit their terrible defense seem like they're more than capable of continuing this organization's extensive run of postseason suffering.

Los Angeles Rams over Dallas Cowboys: As it usually does this time of year, this seemingly even matchup between a high-powered offense and a top-notch defense should end up coming down to whose deficiency (Rams defense vs. any part of the Cowboys offense that doesn't involve Ezekiel Elliott) ends up getting exposed at a pivotal time. Ultimately, I'm going to give the narrow edge to the Rams because I have more faith in their shaky defense making stops than I do the Cowboys being able to get the passing game going on the road against a tough opponent if Zeke isn't lights out.

New England Patriots over Los Angeles Chargers: It's pretty easy to make a compelling argument for the Chargers as the AFC's dark horse Super Bowl representative. They have a sound defense with no glaring weaknesses, enough explosive offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Tyrell Williams) to attack opponents in a variety of ways and a great veteran quarterback in Phillip Rivers that has proven he isn't intimidated by the big moment. The huge problem with this potential Cinderella run to Atlanta is that were talking about a franchise that has a gift for pissing away every golden opportunity they earn (Example #24,617: the 4th quarter of their Wild Card contest with the Ravens). With the daunting task of enduring yet another cross-country flight, weather conditions they're not accustomed to and trying to take down a certain immortal QB/coach combo on their home turf, I don't think this will be the year where the Chargers finally capitalize on their contender potential.

New Orleans Saints over Philadelphia Eagles: I've picked against the Eagles in every single playoff game in each of the last 2 seasons and they've won every damn time. As I demonstrated earlier, I have a really hard time learning from my mistakes and as a result, am going to go against them yet again. Their performance against the Bears wasn't overly impressive and they don't have the luxury of facing another young, mistake-prone team that will hand them a W again in the Divisional Round. The Superdome is going to be a madhouse on Sunday and this well-rounded Saints squad should be hungry to prove itself after being a miracle play away from advancing to the NFC Championship Game last year. Plus the Saints were my preseason Super Bowl pick, so I'm kind of obligated to ride with them as long as they're in the dance.

Friday, January 12, 2018

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Last week's record: 3-1 (Correct: Falcons, Jaguars, Saints Incorrect: Chiefs)
Overall: 3-1

Atlanta Falcons over Philadelphia Eagles: It takes a lot for a top overall seed to be home underdogs in the Divisional Round, but the harsh reality is that the Eagles just aren't the same team without Carson Wentz under center. While Philly has a talented, versatile running back committee (Jay Ajayi, LeGarette Blount, Corey Clement) and a strong defense that's excellent at putting pressure on opposing QB's and stuffing the run, Nick Foles is the type of ineffective, mistake-prone quarterback that derails championship runs. Making matters worse for the Eagles is the fact that they're facing a seasoned Falcons squad that is red-hot on offense right now and has a quick, athletic defense that is more than capable of shutting down their rushing attack (outside of a few plays, they took MVP candidate Todd Gurley out of the game last week). In other words, any chance the Eagles have of winning this game lies on Foles' shoulders and given the way he's played since Wentz went down, I have absolutely zero confidence in his ability to deliver a strong performance in a big-game setting against a formidable opponent.

New England Patriots over Tennessee Titans: The Titans made me and millions of other know-it-all football fans who expected them to get slaughtered at Arrowhead Stadium last Saturday look like the blowhard dumbasses that we all are with their improbable comeback victory over the Chiefs. Now that I've gotten that obligatory acknowledgment of my incorrect prediction out of the way, I'm going to rip on Mike Mularkey's painfully average team yet again! Whatever confidence the Titans currently have following that huge upset win is practically guaranteed to deteriorate once they step into Gillette Stadium to face the defending champion New England Patriots tomorrow night. Even if you toss aside the clear talent discrepancies at nearly every position and very real possibility of the unstoppable out-for-blood Patriots making their 1st appearance of the season following the Seth Wickersham ESPN story that detailed an alleged rift between the architects of the Patriots seemingly eternal reign of dominance, this Titans squad doesn't have the offensive firepower or pass-rushing prowess to even compete with the Brady/Belichick machine, let alone knock them off.   

Pittsburgh Steelers over Jacksonville Jaguars: Everybody and their brother knows that the Jaguars slaughtered the Steelers in their regular season meeting back in early October. As much as I respect the abilities of the Jags defensive leaders (Jalen Ramsey, Calias Campbell, A.J. Bouye, Malik Jackson), the odds of Ben Roethlisberger throwing 5 INT's and this suspect run D all but eliminating Le'Veon Bell from the game again are extremely slim. The Steelers are a veteran offensive powerhouse with clear motivation to prove that October's meltdown in front of their home fans was merely a painful fluke and unless Blake Bortles and Leonard Forunette can break out of the crippling slumps they've been in over the past few weeks, this Jags offense simply won't be able to score enough points to stay in this game. 

New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings: With their fierce defense and surprisingly efficient, multi-faceted offense, the Vikings have emerged as a popular Super Bowl pick in recent weeks. However, experience is essential in the playoffs and even though they've played their assess off all season long, I just can't give the edge to a Case Keenum-led team in a matchup against a team with a hardened veteran quarterback in Drew Brees whose coming off yet another stellar playoff performance.

Friday, January 13, 2017

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Last Week's Record: 3-1 (Correct: Texans, Seahawks, Steelers Incorrect: Giants)
Overall Record: 3-1

Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have consistently proved me wrong throughout 2016 and I'm sure head coach Dan Quinn desperately wants to eliminate his former employers from the playoffs, but I just can't give them the edge over this Seahawks squad. The Seahawks have a physical defense that's capable of shutting down their high-powered aerial attack and I don't think the Falcons front 7 is talented enough to stop Thomas Rawls if he gets going like he did last week against the Lions.

New England Patriots over Houston Texans: There hasn't been a more unevenly matched playoff game since the Tim Tebow-led Broncos traveled to Gillette Stadium back in 2012 (for reference purposes, the Patriots won that game 45-10). The Patriots hammered the hapless Texans 27-0 back in Week 3 with rookie Jacoby Brissett making his 1st career start under center. With Tom Brady back at the helm and the Texans still possessing the saddest offense in the NFL, there's no reason to believe the Patriots can't win by 30+ points. Unless you're a masochist that gets off on watching powerhouse football teams dismantle much weaker opponents, there's no reason to watch or care about this inevitable slaughter. 

Kansas City Chiefs over Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers laid an epic 43-14 beatdown on the Chiefs in the regular season, but that game was in the friendly confines of Heinz Field before Andy Reid's squad had really found their footing. Even in predicted icy conditions that give an edge to their prolific running attack led by Le'Veon Bell, I don't expect the Steelers to be on the winning end this time around. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to win in the NFL, and I don't trust the notoriously road-challenged Ben Roethlisberger to be able to head into this hostile of an environment against this formidable of a defense and pick up a win.

Green Bay Packers over Dallas Cowboys: I'm absolutely astonished by the percentage of national media members and fans on social media that are assuming this is going to be a guaranteed win for the Cowboys. The Packers have won 7 games in a row, are coming off a game in which they shat all over a Giants defense that had been playing better than any other defense in the league during the second half of the season and have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers that pulls legitimate gridiron magic out of his ass every single week. Unless Ezekiel Elliott can keep the Packers offense off of the field for most of the game, I don't see a way in which the Cowboys unreliable defense can contain this explosive offense for a prolonged period of time.  

Thursday, January 9, 2014

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Wild Card Record: 2-2 (Correct: Colts, 49ers Incorrect: Eagles, Bengals)

Seattle Seahawks over New Orleans Saints: The Saints silenced detractors like myself last week by finally picking up a road playoff win against the Eagles. What made it more impressive is they managed to pick up this win by running the ball and without a big game from top playmaker Jimmy Graham. While the Saints were certainly impressive last week, they are going to need to substantially top that performance if they want to knock off the Seahawks this week. Unlike the Eagles, the Seahawks have a defense that can make plays and really doesn't have any holes that the Saints offense can expose (The Seahawks can be run on, but I don't trust the Saints to put together two solid games running the ball in a row.) This defense gave Brees and co. a horrible time when they faced them earlier in the year and I would be surprised if that didn't happen again. It also doesn't help that the Seahawks possess a big,bruising running back like Marshawn Lynch. The Saints run defense has been up-and down all year and they did a great job containing LeSean McCoy last week, but I don't expect the same to happen with Lynch. Most importantly, the Saints play much worse football when they're away from the Superdome and for a team with road woes, there is no worse place in the league to play than Seattle. The Saints have a tall-order to try and go into Seattle and win, but unless something drastic happens, I don't expect it to happen.

New England Patriots over Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are certainly riding a huge wave of momentum after their gigantic comeback win over the Chiefs last week. That type of momentum is great for a big game against the Patriots this week, but ultimately I don't think it will be for them to take it. I don't think Tom Brady or Andrew Luck is the X-factor here, I believe this game will come down to defense and I just trust the Patriots D more than the Colts right now. The Colts just allowed 44 points to a Chiefs offense that was without Jammal Charles, who accounted for over a third of their total offense in the regular season. I expect a lot of points to be scored with Brady and Luck both facing porous defenses and it could come down to a final possession and because of that, I'll take the Patriots by a hair in this battle of great offenses versus bad defenses.

Carolina Panthers over San Fransisco 49ers: This is hands-down my least confident pick of the weekend. The 49ers are riding a hot streak and are battle-tested in the playoffs opposed to the Panthers, who are a very young team and have no recent playoff experience (Steve Smith and Jordan Gross are the only guys still on the roster from the 2003 Super Bowl team.) Despite the odds being stacked against them, I like the Panthers in this game. It should a defensive slugfest like their regular season meeting with two of the league's finest units squaring off. Someone on offense is going to need to deify this and make a few big plays against a tough defense and I expect that man to be Cam Newton. Newton has come through numerous times in the regular season in big situations and I think his clutch ability will make up for his lack of playoff experience and lead the Panthers to a victory over a resilient and hungry 49ers squad.

San Diego Chargers over Denver Broncos: Phillip Rivers is 2-0 against Peyton Manning in the playoffs and I expect that to become 3-0 on Sunday. The Chargers just went into Denver and beat them last month, which takes away the fear of playing them in their building. I also just don't trust the Broncos defense at all. Their defense has struggled all year long and the Chargers offense is about as hot as you can get right now with Rivers in top-form and a newly potent rushing offense led by Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead. You can't count the Broncos out clearly because of the strength of their offense and the magical season Peyton Manning has had. That being said, Manning has looked awful in the playoffs of late and I don't like his odds of a comeback against a team that just shut him down when he's coming off a bye week. The Chargers are just playing great football right now and even against a powerhouse like the Broncos, I wouldn't bet against them.

Friday, January 11, 2013

NFL Divisonal Round Picks

Last Weeks Record 2-2 (Correct: Packers, Ravens  Incorrect: Bengals, Redskins)
Another exciting weekend of playoff football lays ahead with intriguing matchups all-around. Here are my picks for all four divisional round games this weekend.

Denver Broncos over Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens rallied behind Ray Lewis in the final home game of his career and picked up an inspired win against the Colts last week. The Ravens will no doubt be playing with a lot of emotion again this week to try bring Lewis a Super Bowl title in his final season. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. Playing the Broncos in Denver is just a tall order and the Broncos were the hottest team in football when the regular season ended. Their defense is simply outstanding and Peyton Manning has the offense firing on all cylinders. To make matters worse for the Ravens, the Broncos blew them out in Baltimore just a few weeks ago. The Broncos stuffed Ray Rice and made Joe Flacco rush his throws, which is a surefire way to beat the Ravens. The Ravens do have emotion on their side, but every other aspect of the game favors the Broncos.

San Fransisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers: The Packers have experience and superior quarterback play on their side, but the 49ers ability to run the ball and their stellar defense makes me give the slight edge to the 49ers in this game. The Packers offensive line has struggled all season and the 49ers pass rush is deadly and should get to Aaron Rodgers all game long. The Packers also can very easily be run on and Frank Gore torched them in the season opener averaging seven yards a carry. The downside to the 49ers is quarterback Colin Kapernick's inexperience in playoff games, but I think he will be just fine. He showed a lot of poise and had a great game on the national stage just a few weeks ago against the Patriots on the road. Kapernick is a talented quarterback and I think he will tackle this challenge. I don't think the 49ers will sleep on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers elite receiving corps and will pull out a close victory.

Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan has been a trainwreck in the playoffs and with a tough and red-hot Seahawks team coming into town on Sunday, I don't expect that to change. The Seahawks have been up to any task of late and their cornerback tandem of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner are going to make it tough for Ryan to get the ball to star wideouts Roddy White and Julio Jones. On top of their great defense, The Seahawks offense has been flourishing of late. Russell Wilson didn't have the greatest game last week, but he's a skilled and mature quarterback so I'm sure he will bounce back. The Seahawks also have the gift of having monstrous running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch should have a field day against the decent Falcons run defense. If the Falcons want to be an elite team, they have to win big games and I don't expect Sunday to be their moment in the sun against a seemingly unstoppable at the moment Seahawks squad.

New England Patriots over Houston Texans: The Texans came out last week and proved they can still play at a high level with their victory over the Bengals. Their going to need their A-game if they want to go into New England and avenge the beatdown they took at the hands of the Patriots on Monday Night Football in early December. I do think the Patriots will end up winning this game. You really can't go against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs and having Rob Gronkowski back at full strength is a big asset for the Patriots. However, there is an interesting parallel between this and the 2010 season when the Jets eliminated the Patriots in the divisional round. The Jets got trounced by the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in an early December on Monday Night Football and went onto to beat the Patriots in the divisional round.  Not saying history will repeat itself, but it's just something to take into consideration. I'm not expecting another shellacking, but I do believe the Patriots will knock off the Texans once again.