Any seasoned fantasy football players knows that bad high-draft picks can sink your team. The regularity of top-end picks falling short of expectations has only grown higher thanks to the increased media hype, frequency of major injuries and teams constantly changing their offensive philosophies. Here are my picks for the most likely bust candidate at each of the 5 major positions headed into the 2015 fantasy season.
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (Broncos) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 35.5 NFL.Com: 35.3 ESPN: 27.5)
This is a classic example of someone being ranked really high simply because of the prestige their name holds. Manning has probably the been most productive fantasy football quarterback of the past 15-20 years, but at the ripe old age of 39, he's no longer that guy. Manning was pretty mediocre down the stretch (4 TD's, 6 INT's, 81.9 QBR in the last 5 games in 2014) last season and no longer has the luxury of having an excellent offensive line after 4 of his 5 starters from a year ago left the team or suffered season-ending injuries in the offseason. Spending a 3rd-4th round pick on Manning when you can get guys like Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan-who are all in much better situations- 1-3 rounds later doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
Running Back: C.J. Anderson (Broncos) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 20.5 NFL.Com: 14.9 ESPN: 12.3)
There are a number of running backs being highly overvalued this season simply based on the old myth that running back is the most valuable position in fantasy football, but since Anderson is easily the highest rated of the bunch, he gets the nod for this dubious honor. When Manning's play started to slip down the stretch and an injury to Ronnie Hillman forced him into the starting lineup, Anderson ceased the opportunity and put up very solid numbers- including a pair of 160+ yard performances against the Dolphins and the Chiefs- in his 8 games as the Broncos starting running back. However, Anderson's numbers from a year ago are largely skewed. 6 of the 8 defenses Anderson faced in his starts ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run and he picked up nearly 40% of his yards for the season in the games against the Dolphins and Chiefs. Anderson also no longer has the luxury of having one of the best offensive lines to open up running lanes for him. The Broncos are down all but 1 starter from their 2014 unit after guard/tackle Orlando Franklin, center Will Montgomery and center/guard Manny Ramirez left in the offseason and left tackle Ryan Clady went down with a torn ACL in OTA's. Anderson may not end up being a total flop, but taking him with a prime draft pick in the late 1st-mid 2nd round is a serious stretch.
Wide Receiver: Andre Johnson (Colts) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 43.2, NFL.Com: 56.5, ESPN: 57.9)
Andre Johnson hit the jackpot after being released by the Texans when he signed with the pass-happy Colts. While Andrew Luck is by far the best quarterback the future Hall-of-Famer has ever played with, I don't see him having a career year in 2015. There's an insane of mouths to feed in the Colts passing game including T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Donte Moncrief and 2015 1st-rounder Phillip Dorsett, and Johnson has a reputation for not being much of a redzone threat (he's never had a double digit touchdown season in his 11-year career and he hasn't scored more than 5 TD's in a season since 2010), which hurts his odds of being a high-end WR2. Johnson is more than likely going to have a productive year, I just don't believe he is going to put up numbers that make him worth an early round draft pick,
Tight End: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 50.6 NFL.Com: 60.1 ESPN: 62.9)
Travis Kelce was the beneficiary of an inept Chiefs wide receiver group last season, picking up 862 yards and 5 TD's in his breakout 2014 campaign. Kelce would be extremely fortunate to repeat that success this year. Free-agent pickup Jeremy Maclin should take away a lot of Kelce's short-yardage opportunities and the Chiefs will probably have to rely on Kelce's excellent run blocking to drive their run-first offense after losing their only reliable offensive lineman (center Rodney Hudson) in free agency. Kelce is a huge flight risk for his average draft position, especially considering that tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates aren't usually huge fantasy difference makers
Defense: Philadelphia Eagles (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 77.7 NFL.Com: 86.4 ESPN: 131.5)
The Eagles D were studs a year ago, picking up an insane amount of defensive/special teams touchdowns (11) and sacks (49), which catapulted them to a second place finish behind the Bills for the crown of most fantasy points for a defense. While the Eagles have a considerable amount of talent on defense and improved their horrid secondary with the acquisitions of Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and Nolan Carroll in the offseason , I just don't see them having the same success from a fantasy standpoint. They might have a similar sack total as a year ago thanks to the continuity in their front seven, but it was the touchdown total that pushed them over the edge and the chances of them putting up that many TD's again is highly unlikely. Basically, if you want to draft a defense from a team with a bird-based nickname, wait a little bit longer and take the Cardinals or Ravens, who provide a better value and have more potential to flourish than the Eagles.
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