We may still be a week away from the opening of training camp and about a month and a half away from the start of the regular season, but it's never too early to start speculating about what quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defenses are being overvauled in the wonderful and often confusing world of fantasy football. Here are the five players that I think should be avoided at their current draft position.
Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 54.7, NFL.com: 54.0, ESPN: 73.7)
Palmer has looked revitalized since joining the Cardinals in 2013 and was a legitimate MVP contender for a majority of last season. However, he ended the 2015 season on a horrendous note with a trio of terrible performances (6 TD, 7 INT, 55.5 CMP%, 65.3 QBR) punctuated by a 4 INT performance against the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. The shakiness Palmer demonstrated down the stretch paired with his age (he'll be 37 in December) and checkered injury history makes his status going into 2016 murky at best. Taking a quarterback in the first half of the draft isn't the ill-advised decision many self-proclaimed fantasy gurus make it out to be, but if you're going to spend a precious early-round pick on a QB, they shouldn't carry the vast level of uncertainty Palmer has surrounding him.
Running Back: Jammal Charles (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 17.0, NFL.com: 19.0, ESPN: 14.9)
The days of Charles being a stalwart fantasy player could be in jeopardy. He turns 30 in December and is coming off of a season that was shortened by a torn ACL (the 2nd of his career). Charles has the advantage of not having the wear and tear most bellcow running backs have at this point of their career (he didn't become a full-time starter until his 3rd season in the league in 2010) and playing in a rush-first offense that has a shortage of playmakers, but with the emergence of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware in his absence last season and the uncertainty of his surgically-repaired knee will hold up over the course of an entire season, Charles is unlikely to perform at the level fantasy owners have come to expect from him in 2016.
Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman (Patriots) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 34.4, NFL.com: 44.5, ESPN: 41.4)
Despite having only 1 1,000+-yard season and zero double-digit touchdown seasons over the course of his 7-year career, Edelman is perennially coveted as a top-end WR2 that sometimes flirts with WR1 value. With Tom Brady suspended for 4 games and concerns about the status of his surgically-repaired foot, that value should be in question for 2016. With guys like T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks-who have similar floors and much higher ceilings- going in the same area, taking Edelman this high in any non-PPR league doesn't make much sense.
Tight End: Jordan Reed (Redskins) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 40.4, NFL.com 41.9, ESPN: 34.1)
Reed is one of the most gifted pass-catching tight ends in the league as evidenced by his 87 reception, 952-yard, 11-TD breakout season in 2015. Unfortunately, he's also one of the biggest wild cards in the league. He has yet to play a full season since he entered the league in 2013 and his play before last season was very erratic. Reed is an unnecessary risk at the stage of the draft he's typically being selected at, especially when you can wait a round or two and select a more seasoned, less injury-prone player with similar upside such as Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker or Travis Kelce.
Defense: Carolina Panthers (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 72.2 NFL.com: 78.3, ESPN: 80.9)
The Panthers defense was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015. While they should be solid once again, I don't think they'll be able to match the high level of production they put up for most of last season. Their revamped, Josh Norman-less secondary is unlikely to scare any competent opponent they face and it would be kind of miraculous if they were able to put up another 44-sack season with only one elite pass-rusher (Kawann Short) on their front. I think the Panthers defense will ultimately be fine in 2016, I just don't think they should be considered an elite fantasy option.
Showing posts with label overrated players in fantasy football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label overrated players in fantasy football. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Thursday, August 6, 2015
5 Highly Ranked Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football
Any seasoned fantasy football players knows that bad high-draft picks can sink your team. The regularity of top-end picks falling short of expectations has only grown higher thanks to the increased media hype, frequency of major injuries and teams constantly changing their offensive philosophies. Here are my picks for the most likely bust candidate at each of the 5 major positions headed into the 2015 fantasy season.
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (Broncos) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 35.5 NFL.Com: 35.3 ESPN: 27.5)
This is a classic example of someone being ranked really high simply because of the prestige their name holds. Manning has probably the been most productive fantasy football quarterback of the past 15-20 years, but at the ripe old age of 39, he's no longer that guy. Manning was pretty mediocre down the stretch (4 TD's, 6 INT's, 81.9 QBR in the last 5 games in 2014) last season and no longer has the luxury of having an excellent offensive line after 4 of his 5 starters from a year ago left the team or suffered season-ending injuries in the offseason. Spending a 3rd-4th round pick on Manning when you can get guys like Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan-who are all in much better situations- 1-3 rounds later doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
Running Back: C.J. Anderson (Broncos) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 20.5 NFL.Com: 14.9 ESPN: 12.3)
There are a number of running backs being highly overvalued this season simply based on the old myth that running back is the most valuable position in fantasy football, but since Anderson is easily the highest rated of the bunch, he gets the nod for this dubious honor. When Manning's play started to slip down the stretch and an injury to Ronnie Hillman forced him into the starting lineup, Anderson ceased the opportunity and put up very solid numbers- including a pair of 160+ yard performances against the Dolphins and the Chiefs- in his 8 games as the Broncos starting running back. However, Anderson's numbers from a year ago are largely skewed. 6 of the 8 defenses Anderson faced in his starts ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run and he picked up nearly 40% of his yards for the season in the games against the Dolphins and Chiefs. Anderson also no longer has the luxury of having one of the best offensive lines to open up running lanes for him. The Broncos are down all but 1 starter from their 2014 unit after guard/tackle Orlando Franklin, center Will Montgomery and center/guard Manny Ramirez left in the offseason and left tackle Ryan Clady went down with a torn ACL in OTA's. Anderson may not end up being a total flop, but taking him with a prime draft pick in the late 1st-mid 2nd round is a serious stretch.
Wide Receiver: Andre Johnson (Colts) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 43.2, NFL.Com: 56.5, ESPN: 57.9)
Andre Johnson hit the jackpot after being released by the Texans when he signed with the pass-happy Colts. While Andrew Luck is by far the best quarterback the future Hall-of-Famer has ever played with, I don't see him having a career year in 2015. There's an insane of mouths to feed in the Colts passing game including T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Donte Moncrief and 2015 1st-rounder Phillip Dorsett, and Johnson has a reputation for not being much of a redzone threat (he's never had a double digit touchdown season in his 11-year career and he hasn't scored more than 5 TD's in a season since 2010), which hurts his odds of being a high-end WR2. Johnson is more than likely going to have a productive year, I just don't believe he is going to put up numbers that make him worth an early round draft pick,
Tight End: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 50.6 NFL.Com: 60.1 ESPN: 62.9)
Travis Kelce was the beneficiary of an inept Chiefs wide receiver group last season, picking up 862 yards and 5 TD's in his breakout 2014 campaign. Kelce would be extremely fortunate to repeat that success this year. Free-agent pickup Jeremy Maclin should take away a lot of Kelce's short-yardage opportunities and the Chiefs will probably have to rely on Kelce's excellent run blocking to drive their run-first offense after losing their only reliable offensive lineman (center Rodney Hudson) in free agency. Kelce is a huge flight risk for his average draft position, especially considering that tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates aren't usually huge fantasy difference makers
Defense: Philadelphia Eagles (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 77.7 NFL.Com: 86.4 ESPN: 131.5)
The Eagles D were studs a year ago, picking up an insane amount of defensive/special teams touchdowns (11) and sacks (49), which catapulted them to a second place finish behind the Bills for the crown of most fantasy points for a defense. While the Eagles have a considerable amount of talent on defense and improved their horrid secondary with the acquisitions of Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and Nolan Carroll in the offseason , I just don't see them having the same success from a fantasy standpoint. They might have a similar sack total as a year ago thanks to the continuity in their front seven, but it was the touchdown total that pushed them over the edge and the chances of them putting up that many TD's again is highly unlikely. Basically, if you want to draft a defense from a team with a bird-based nickname, wait a little bit longer and take the Cardinals or Ravens, who provide a better value and have more potential to flourish than the Eagles.
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (Broncos) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 35.5 NFL.Com: 35.3 ESPN: 27.5)
This is a classic example of someone being ranked really high simply because of the prestige their name holds. Manning has probably the been most productive fantasy football quarterback of the past 15-20 years, but at the ripe old age of 39, he's no longer that guy. Manning was pretty mediocre down the stretch (4 TD's, 6 INT's, 81.9 QBR in the last 5 games in 2014) last season and no longer has the luxury of having an excellent offensive line after 4 of his 5 starters from a year ago left the team or suffered season-ending injuries in the offseason. Spending a 3rd-4th round pick on Manning when you can get guys like Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan-who are all in much better situations- 1-3 rounds later doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
Running Back: C.J. Anderson (Broncos) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 20.5 NFL.Com: 14.9 ESPN: 12.3)
There are a number of running backs being highly overvalued this season simply based on the old myth that running back is the most valuable position in fantasy football, but since Anderson is easily the highest rated of the bunch, he gets the nod for this dubious honor. When Manning's play started to slip down the stretch and an injury to Ronnie Hillman forced him into the starting lineup, Anderson ceased the opportunity and put up very solid numbers- including a pair of 160+ yard performances against the Dolphins and the Chiefs- in his 8 games as the Broncos starting running back. However, Anderson's numbers from a year ago are largely skewed. 6 of the 8 defenses Anderson faced in his starts ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run and he picked up nearly 40% of his yards for the season in the games against the Dolphins and Chiefs. Anderson also no longer has the luxury of having one of the best offensive lines to open up running lanes for him. The Broncos are down all but 1 starter from their 2014 unit after guard/tackle Orlando Franklin, center Will Montgomery and center/guard Manny Ramirez left in the offseason and left tackle Ryan Clady went down with a torn ACL in OTA's. Anderson may not end up being a total flop, but taking him with a prime draft pick in the late 1st-mid 2nd round is a serious stretch.
Wide Receiver: Andre Johnson (Colts) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 43.2, NFL.Com: 56.5, ESPN: 57.9)
Andre Johnson hit the jackpot after being released by the Texans when he signed with the pass-happy Colts. While Andrew Luck is by far the best quarterback the future Hall-of-Famer has ever played with, I don't see him having a career year in 2015. There's an insane of mouths to feed in the Colts passing game including T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Donte Moncrief and 2015 1st-rounder Phillip Dorsett, and Johnson has a reputation for not being much of a redzone threat (he's never had a double digit touchdown season in his 11-year career and he hasn't scored more than 5 TD's in a season since 2010), which hurts his odds of being a high-end WR2. Johnson is more than likely going to have a productive year, I just don't believe he is going to put up numbers that make him worth an early round draft pick,
Tight End: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 50.6 NFL.Com: 60.1 ESPN: 62.9)
Travis Kelce was the beneficiary of an inept Chiefs wide receiver group last season, picking up 862 yards and 5 TD's in his breakout 2014 campaign. Kelce would be extremely fortunate to repeat that success this year. Free-agent pickup Jeremy Maclin should take away a lot of Kelce's short-yardage opportunities and the Chiefs will probably have to rely on Kelce's excellent run blocking to drive their run-first offense after losing their only reliable offensive lineman (center Rodney Hudson) in free agency. Kelce is a huge flight risk for his average draft position, especially considering that tight ends not named Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates aren't usually huge fantasy difference makers
Defense: Philadelphia Eagles (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 77.7 NFL.Com: 86.4 ESPN: 131.5)
The Eagles D were studs a year ago, picking up an insane amount of defensive/special teams touchdowns (11) and sacks (49), which catapulted them to a second place finish behind the Bills for the crown of most fantasy points for a defense. While the Eagles have a considerable amount of talent on defense and improved their horrid secondary with the acquisitions of Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and Nolan Carroll in the offseason , I just don't see them having the same success from a fantasy standpoint. They might have a similar sack total as a year ago thanks to the continuity in their front seven, but it was the touchdown total that pushed them over the edge and the chances of them putting up that many TD's again is highly unlikely. Basically, if you want to draft a defense from a team with a bird-based nickname, wait a little bit longer and take the Cardinals or Ravens, who provide a better value and have more potential to flourish than the Eagles.
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