We may still be a week away from the opening of training camp and about a month and a half away from the start of the regular season, but it's never too early to start speculating about what quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defenses are being overvauled in the wonderful and often confusing world of fantasy football. Here are the five players that I think should be avoided at their current draft position.
Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 54.7, NFL.com: 54.0, ESPN: 73.7)
Palmer has looked revitalized since joining the Cardinals in 2013 and was a legitimate MVP contender for a majority of last season. However, he ended the 2015 season on a horrendous note with a trio of terrible performances (6 TD, 7 INT, 55.5 CMP%, 65.3 QBR) punctuated by a 4 INT performance against the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. The shakiness Palmer demonstrated down the stretch paired with his age (he'll be 37 in December) and checkered injury history makes his status going into 2016 murky at best. Taking a quarterback in the first half of the draft isn't the ill-advised decision many self-proclaimed fantasy gurus make it out to be, but if you're going to spend a precious early-round pick on a QB, they shouldn't carry the vast level of uncertainty Palmer has surrounding him.
Running Back: Jammal Charles (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 17.0, NFL.com: 19.0, ESPN: 14.9)
The days of Charles being a stalwart fantasy player could be in jeopardy. He turns 30 in December and is coming off of a season that was shortened by a torn ACL (the 2nd of his career). Charles has the advantage of not having the wear and tear most bellcow running backs have at this point of their career (he didn't become a full-time starter until his 3rd season in the league in 2010) and playing in a rush-first offense that has a shortage of playmakers, but with the emergence of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware in his absence last season and the uncertainty of his surgically-repaired knee will hold up over the course of an entire season, Charles is unlikely to perform at the level fantasy owners have come to expect from him in 2016.
Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman (Patriots) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 34.4, NFL.com: 44.5, ESPN: 41.4)
Despite having only 1 1,000+-yard season and zero double-digit touchdown seasons over the course of his 7-year career, Edelman is perennially coveted as a top-end WR2 that sometimes flirts with WR1 value. With Tom Brady suspended for 4 games and concerns about the status of his surgically-repaired foot, that value should be in question for 2016. With guys like T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks-who have similar floors and much higher ceilings- going in the same area, taking Edelman this high in any non-PPR league doesn't make much sense.
Tight End: Jordan Reed (Redskins) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 40.4, NFL.com 41.9, ESPN: 34.1)
Reed is one of the most gifted pass-catching tight ends in the league as evidenced by his 87 reception, 952-yard, 11-TD breakout season in 2015. Unfortunately, he's also one of the biggest wild cards in the league. He has yet to play a full season since he entered the league in 2013 and his play before last season was very erratic. Reed is an unnecessary risk at the stage of the draft he's typically being selected at, especially when you can wait a round or two and select a more seasoned, less injury-prone player with similar upside such as Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker or Travis Kelce.
Defense: Carolina Panthers (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 72.2 NFL.com: 78.3, ESPN: 80.9)
The Panthers defense was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015. While they should be solid once again, I don't think they'll be able to match the high level of production they put up for most of last season. Their revamped, Josh Norman-less secondary is unlikely to scare any competent opponent they face and it would be kind of miraculous if they were able to put up another 44-sack season with only one elite pass-rusher (Kawann Short) on their front. I think the Panthers defense will ultimately be fine in 2016, I just don't think they should be considered an elite fantasy option.
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