Thursday, July 28, 2016

2016 NFL Preview: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys:
2015 Record: 4-12 (4th place in NFC East)
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (6th season)
Notable Additions: DE/DT Cedric Thornton, RB Alfred Morris,  ILB Justin Durant
Notable Departures: DE Greg Hardy, QB Matt Cassel, G Mackenzy Bernadeau

Offense:
The return of quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant for the start of the 2016 season is a major sigh of relief for this franchise. The absence of Romo and Bryant for a majority of the 2015 campaign resulted in "America's Team" putting together a miserable 4-win season full of limited scoring (they averaged 15.8 points in the 12 games that Romo didn't play in) and terrible play from every skill position player not named Darren McFadden, who proved the long-standing theory that any schmuck with a sense of direction and functional legs can run behind the Cowboys loaded offensive line by picking up his first 1,000+ yard season since 2010. The shitshow that was the 2015 season proved just how vital Romo and Bryant are to the success of this offense, but there's absolutely no guarantees that they're going to be able to return to form this season. Romo just turned 36 and the two separate breaks of his collarbone he suffered last season was the latest in a seemingly endless list of injuries he's suffered over the course of his 10 years of being a starting quarterback in the NFL while Bryant's foot injury is the type of ailment that can permanently hinder a player's speed and cutting ability, which is obviously a vital part of his game as a top wideout. If they both return to form, the Cowboys will likely recapture the success of the 2014 season in which they won the division title and were one controversial play away (DEZ CAUGHT IT DAMN IT) from advancing to the NFC Championship Game. If they don't, the recklessness they both displayed in returning prematurely from injuries in 2015 will be thrust back into the spotlight and their fans will be left wondering what could've been if the team's two best players displayed the patience to heal fully before returning to the field.

The only sure thing about the 2016 Cowboys is that they're going to run the ball into oblivion. Jerry Jones blew off the plethora of pressing defensive needs that have been plagued his team for the past several years by using the fourth overall pick (their highest pick since 1989) in the NFL Draft to select highly-touted Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is the one of the few true three-down backs to enter the NFL in the 2010's so far and his vast skill set combined with the fact that he's running behind the best offensive line in football puts him in a prime position to excel from the jump.

The Cowboys also sured up their depth at the position behind Elliott and glass-boned McFadden by bringing in former Redskins starter Alfred Morris in free agency. Morris' total yards and yards per carry went down in each of his 4 seasons with the Redskins, but he's a durable, proven veteran option that should help take some of the pressure off of Elliot's shoulders and could step into to handle the brunt of the carries if their rookie bellcow suffers an injury or unexpectedly undergoes some growing pains transitioning to the pro's.   

Defense:

Jerry Jones' obsession with shiny offensive toys has once again caused him to gloss over the glaring holes that are present throughout his defense. Adding a top-tier defensive prospect to a unit that finished 17th in total defense (348.1 YDS per game), tied for 22nd in run defense (120.9 YDS per game) and tied for 25th in sacks (31) a year ago seemed to be the obvious choice, but of course Jones has to go against all reasonable logic by adding a running back to the only team in the league that doesn't need a talented running back to have an effective running game. Jones did shift his focus over to defense with the team's next pick, but still managed to confuse the hell out of the football world by selecting Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith, who suffered a torn ACL and LCL during the Fiesta Bowl in January, in the second round. Even if Smith ends up turning into the premier talent he was projected to be before the injury, he's more than likely not going to play until 2017, if not later.

Jones complete neglect of adding players who can help the defense immediately in the offseason (Unless you count the addition of Eagles castoff defensive lineman Cedric Thornton as a game-changing move) has put this unit into a state of complete disarray. Defensive coordinator/the NFL's most patient man Rod Marinelli has somehow been handed a bigger pile of shit than ever before as defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, inside linebacker Rolando McClain and outside linebacker Randy Gregory have all been suspended for at least 4 games (McClain and Gregory are out for 10) and Jones failure to address the lack of depth that exists at every single position on the defense is going to force him to start raw, young players like Ryan Russell and Charles Tapper who have zero experience starting in the NFL out of sheer desperation. If Marinelli is able to get this defense full of less-than-stellar veterans and raw young players to generate any semblance of a consistent pass rush and finish outside of the bottom 10 in the league in points/yards allowed, he should be enshrined into Hall of Fame immediately

The only piece of positive news for this unit heading into 2016 is the return of cornerback Orlando Scandrick after missing all of 2015 with a torn ACL and MCL. Scandrick's excellent coverage skills and relentless motor is a godsend for a mostly inept secondary that gets torched anytime they're tasked with facing half-decent competition. The thought of pairing a healthy Scandrick with second-year cornerback/safety Byron Jones (aka the only other promising player on the Cowboys defense) is probably the only reason Marinelli hasn't ran far away from Jerry World yet.

Bottom Line:
With Romo and Bryant's questionable health and a defense mostly comprised of below average veteran journeyman and unproven first and second-year players, the Cowboys are a complete and total mystery heading into 2016.  

New York Giants:
2015 Record: 6-10 (3rd place in NFC East)
Head Coach: Ben McAdoo (1st season)
Notable Additions: DE Oliver Vernon, DT Damon Harrison, CB Janoris Jenkins
Notable Departures: CB Prince Amukamara, WR Rueben Randle, G Geoff Schwartz

Offense:
The Giants offense has become one of the most predictable in the league after Victor Cruz tore his patellar tendon on October 12, 2014. Without a competent rushing attack and the likes of Reuben Randle and kick-returning specialist Dwayne Harris being forced into prominent receiving roles in Cruz's absence, the Giants offense has almost exclusively ran through wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. for two consecutive seasons. This experiment has largely worked as Beckham has decimated opponents despite facing near-constant double and triple coverage and Eli Manning has enjoyed two of the best years of his career as a result of his dominance, but the lack of offensive options has rendered their offensive basically useless whenever #13 was shut down and/or had an off day.

The end of Beckham's exclusive reign on the offense may be in sight for the Giants and no, it's not because of the projected return of Cruz after an almost two-year absence. The Giants potential liberation from the struggle of having just one playmaking receiver on the roster comes in the form of rookie Sterling Shepard. Shepard is a sure-handed, quick wideout with excellent route-running skills who seems to be the slot receiver the Giants have desperately needed since Mario Manningham had his career derailed by injuries following the 2010 season. If Shepard can come in and contribute to this offense right away, Beckham Jr.'s game should be able to soar to the next level. He has regularly dominated opponents while having the tremendous pressure of being a young player called upon to be the sole catalyst for his team's offense. The thought of the level of damage  OBJ-who has put up 1,305 and 1,450 yards respectively in his first two seasons in the league- could do with a productive number two that would inevitably take pressure off of him and force the extra defenders that have followed him around since he entered the league to the other side of the field is truly horrifying to imagine.

Defense:
Anyone that followed the Giants a year ago knows that their season was ruined by losing close games and blowing leads in the 4th quarter. In a majority of those games, their horrific defense that finished  in the bottom three of the league in just about every major category (sacks, pass defense, yards and points allowed per game) was the reason they lost. Aside from cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, there was no one on the defense that finished the season healthy that should've been starting games in the Arena League, let alone the NFL. The collective failure of their defense played a major role in their fourth straight season missing the playoffs and the team brass forcing head coach Tom Coughlin to resign after 12 years with the team.


With his job and the future of the franchise on the line, general manager Jerry Reese went against his usually reserved approach to free agency and doled out an INSANE amount of money to try and patch up the plethora of holes on the Giants defense. The Giants committed $105.3 in guaranteed money (spread out over the next 5 seasons) to defensive Oliver Vernon, defensive tackle Damon Harrison and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. Vernon and Harrison are amongst the brightest young talents at their respective positions and while Jenkins is a tad bit overrated and has a tendency to take unnecessary risks in crunch time situations, he still represents a major upgrade over the clowns the Giants trotted out to play corner alongside Rodgers-Cromartie last year. It can be argued that the Giants overpaid for all of these guys, but they took a necessary risk by bringing in promising young players with high ceilings at positions that are at an absolute premium in the current NFL climate. If at least two of these guys come in and make an immediate impact, Reese's aggressive spending is going to look like a stroke of genius.

The Giants defense should also benefit from the return of Jonathan Hankins and a fully healthy Pierre-Paul to their lineup. Hankins is a versatile menace who thrives against both the run and the pass who was in middle of his best season as a pro before going down for the year with a torn pectoral muscle in Week 9. The combination of him and Harrison in the middle of the defensive line could give the Giants one of the most potent interior defensive line tandems in the NFL.

As for Pierre-Paul, he greatly exceeded expectations after returning to the field following the July 4th fireworks accident that cost him his right index finger. He only mustered a single sack in 8 games, but he constantly applied pressure on the quarterback and was consistently excellent in defending the run. Pierre-Paul is one of the most instinctive and physically-gifted defensive ends in the league right now and now that he's had an entire offseason to work on playing with his ailment, he seems poised to return to the level of production he put up before the accident.

Despite all of the free agent pickups and return of key contributors from injury, there's still plenty of reasons to be concerned to be about the Giants defense going into 2016. Their linebackers are laughably bad (their projected starters are the dream team of ineffective incumbent outside linebackers J.T. Thomas and Devan Kennard and newly-signed inside linebacker Keenan Robinson, who was well below average throughout his 4-year stint with the Redskins) and the young safety group seems likely to be among the league's worst, unless rookie (and potential starter) Darian Thompson's range, speed and takeaway ability immediately carries over to the NFL. The incompetency of two entire units could potentially derail the Giants attempt to get their defense back on track this season.

Bottom Line:
The combination of supreme talent and potentially suffocating weaknesses makes the Giants the hardest team to gauge in the NFL once again. I wouldn't be the least surprised if they won as few as 5 or as many as 11 games. Let's at least hope that Ben McAdoo can manage the clock better than Coughlin did last season.

Philadelphia Eagles
2015 Record: 7-9 (2nd place in NFC East)
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (1st season)
Notable Additions: G Brandon Brooks, S Rodney McLeod, CB Leodis McKelvin
Notable Departures: RB DeMarco Murray, CB Byron Maxwell, ILB Kiko Alonso

Offense: 
The Eagles really committed to their identity change after a turmoil-filled 2015 campaign by trading in the furious tempo and high-flying acrobatics of former head coach Chip Kelly's system to the beyond vanilla offensive stylings of new head coach Doug Pederson. Pederson's scheme may lack the excitement and splash plays that Kelly's offense regularly delivered, but at least he's not an egomaniac with a system that doesn't translate to the NFL and a flare for clashing with any players that questioned his flawed philosophy.

Pederson's risk-averse, run and screen-pass driven offense worked with the Chiefs because Alex Smith excels in the short passing game and happened to have the deepest group of running backs in the league led by the elusive speedster Jammal Charles. With the Eagles, Pederson is nowhere near as fortunate. While the Eagles offensive line is an undeniable step-up (and got even better with the addition of ex-Texans guard Brandon Brooks in free agency) from any of the units he had during his entire three-year tenure with the Chiefs, his running back committee led by solid, but injury-prone Ryan Matthews and pass-catching specialist Darren Sproles aren't exactly world beaters and all three of his quarterback options (Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel and rookie Carson Wentz) lack the consistency, efficiency or accuracy Smith brings to the table. 

Even if Bradford or Daniel put an end their cycle of subpar play or Pederson breaks his promise and trots out the promising, but largely untested Wentz-who the team gave up a zillion draft picks to trade up and select- out onto the field at some point this season, the Eagles receiving corps inspires little confidence that they're passing attack is going to be effective this season. Outside of tight end Zach Ertz,who has steadily improved each season since he entered in 2013, no receiver on this roster is even remotely trustworthy. Nelson Agholor looked lost throughout his entire rookie campaign and it would be a huge shock if he suddenly found his footing in year two, third-year receiver Josh Huff lacks the route-running skills or size to be anything more than a deep threat and best of all, general manger Howie Roseman decided to double down on shaky handed receivers by bringing in ex-Giant receiver Reuben Randle to (presumably) start alongside Jordan Matthews, who has become the posterboy for ugly, untimely drops over the course of his first two years in the league. Unless Ryan Matthews manages to stays healthy and the play of at least a majority of the Eagles wideouts dramatically improves, Pederson's conservative, clock-eating scheme is pretty much doomed in Philly.

Defense:
To say that the outlook for the Eagles defense is a lot rosier than the offense would be a severe understatement. The 2016 offseason was full of victories for the Bird Gang's defense as Roseman pulled off an A+ screw job by somehow convincing the Dolphins to take on the terrible contract of cornerback Byron Maxwell and injury-prone inside linebacker Kiko Alonso in the same trade, Pederson tapped Jim Schwartz- who was the architect behind the imposing defense of the 2014 Buffalo Bills- to be their defensive coordinator and they were able to sign a handful of solid players (safety Rodney McLeod, cornerback Leodis McKlevin, outside linebacker Nigel Bradham) to team-friendly deals in free agency.


Out of all the intelligent offseason moves the Eagles made to help their defense, the addition of Schwartz is likely to make the biggest impact. Bringing in a blitz-happy defensive coordinator to a unit that got 37 sacks last season and has pass-rushing virtuosos including Vinny Curry, Brandon Graham and human wrecking ball Fletcher Cox within its ranks at his disposal should have the Philly faithful salivating over the possibilities for this season. If Schwartz's system can even come in the vicinity of matching the production levels of his Bills unit from a couple of years ago, the Eagles should have the type of front that wreaks relentless havoc on opposing quarterbacks and covers up any flaws that may exist on the backend of the defense.

Bottom Line:
The lack of offensive weapons and lasting fallout from Chip Kelly's drastic roster overhaul from a year ago will more than likely keep the Eagles out of the race for the division crown in 2016.

Washington Redskins
2015 Record: 9-7 (1st place in NFC East)
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (3rd season)
Notable Additions: CB Josh Norman, TE Vernon Davis, DE Kendall Reyes
Notable Departures: QB Robert Griffin III, DT Terrence Knighton, RB Alfred Morris

Offense:
The fate of the Redskins offense in 2016 is going to come down to 3 burning questions. 1.Is Kirk Cousins a legitimate NFL starting quarterback or was his success last year just a fluke? 2.Can Matt Jones handle being the go-to-guy in the running game? 3.Can Jordan Reed finally escape the shadow of his checkered injury history and become the top-flight tight end he's had the potential to be since he entered the NFL in 2013? My answer to all three of those questions is "I have no fucking clue". 2015 was the first year Cousins looked liked a legitimate NFL starter after sucking it up for 3 years spot-starting in relief of the brittle quarterback formerly known as RG3, Jones showed flashes of potential in the early part of last season (headlined by an impressive 123-yard outing against the Rams in Week 2) before fading into anonymity for the second half of the season and while there's no denying Reed's athleticism and tremendous receiving ability, he has yet to play a full season in his three-year career so far and there's no reason to believe that he's suddenly going to become durable now. With a sketchy offensive line outside of perennial All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and a wide receiver group headlined by the soft-tissue injury waiting to happen also known as DeSean Jackson, perpetually declining veteran Pierre Garcon and 2016 first-round pick Josh Doctson-who I feel is a prime bust candidate-unlikely to have a much of a positive impact on the offense, the play of Cousins, Jones and Reed will ultimately determine whether or not the Redskins can build on their surprising NFC East title run last year or if they're going to re-establish their position as the laughing stock of the division.  

Defense: 
The Redskins received the greatest gift of the offseason when cornerback Josh Norman quickly agreed to a monster deal (5 years/$75 million/$50 mil guaranteed) to join their team after unexpectedly hitting free agency in mid-April when the Panthers rescinded the franchise tag they placed on him in early March. Norman gives the Redskins one of the league's handful of true shutdown corners and should serve as a perfect complement to highly underrated third-year Bashaud Breeland, who previously was the only member of the Redskins secondary that wasn't complete and utter garbage. The addition of Norman marks an immediate upgrade to one of the Redskins weakest areas and his presence should be enough to at least elevate them to the realm of respectability in 2016.

Aside from the addition of Norman, this is pretty much the same unit took the field in 2015. They've got a talented group of pass-rushers led by young guns Preston Smith and Trent Murphy that should be better this year if Ryan Kerrigan can return to form after an underwhelming 2015, a rush defense that regularly fluctuates between being solid and a complete liability, and a weak-ass safety group that is made up of Denver Broncos castoffs (David Bruton, Duke Ihenacho), young guys trying to find their way in the league (Deshazor Everett, rookie Su'a Cravens) and a 32-year old former cornerback who is one hit away from evaporating into a cloud of flashy, but largely overrated dust (DeAngelo Hall). This unit's bizarre mix of promising talent and complete liabilities should lead to another year full of inconsistent play across the board.

Bottom Line:
A tougher schedule and question marks surrounding their key offensive contributors makes the Redskins a top candidate for regression in 2016.     

Projected Standings:
1.New York Giants (8-8)
2.Washington Redskins (8-8)
3.Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
4.Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) 

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