2016 NFL Preview: AFC West

Denver Broncos

2015 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC West)

Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (2nd season)

Notable Additions: T Russell Okung, T Donald Stephenson, DE Jared Crick

Notable Departures: QB Peyton Manning (retired), DE Malik Jackson, QB Brock Osweiler

Offense:
After Peyton Manning unsurprisingly announced his retirement following the Broncos victory in Super Bowl 50, the reigns to the Broncos offense were presumed to be going to Brock Osweiler, who played pretty well in relief of Manning for 8 games last season. Osweiler, who was in the last year of his rookie contract in 2015, hit the open market and soon got locked into a contract stalemate with general manager John Elway (Elway was reportedly unwilling to give him the $18 million a year he desired) that ended with him signing with the Texans.

With Osweiler out of the picture, the Broncos found themselves in the type of messy quarterback situation you don't usually see happen to a team fresh off a Super Bowl victory. The team used their 1st-round pick in this year's draft to select Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch, but had no intention of starting him right away due to how raw he is, leaving 2nd-year quarterback Trevor Siemian and veteran butt fumble enthusiast Mark Sanchez, who was acquired in a trade with the Eagles, to duke it out for the starting spot. Neither one of them looked particularly good in the preseason, but head coach Gary Kubiak decided to roll with Siemian and subsequently released Sanchez.

As a young quarterback with zero experience playing in the NFL, Siemian couldn't possibly be entering a better situation. He has a pair of starting receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders that are reliable, dynamic playmakers, a running back in C.J. Anderson that can handle a heavy workload and most importantly, the type of imposing defense that can take pressure off of the offense to win games. If a physically-drained Manning could effectively run this offense, there's no reason to believe that Siemian can't.   

Defense:
It's no secret that the Broncos rode their defense to a Super Bowl championship. Their defense led by their devastating pass-rush and suffocating run defense was nothing short of spectacular for the entire playoffs. Like most Super Bowl champions, the Broncos suffered some key losses in free agency following their hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy. Defensive end/tackle Malik Jackson and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan cashed in on big-money deals with the Jaguars and Bears respectively, leaving the Broncos with a pair of gaping holes in the middle of their front 7 that are going to be very difficult to fill with their current personnel (newly-acquired defensive end Jared Crick and career backup inside linebacker Todd Davis are currently penciled as Jackson and Trevathan's replacements in the starting lineup).

Despite the losses of Jackson and Trevathan and widespread doubt that their defense isn't going to be able to repeat the success of last season, I don't see any reason why this defense would suddenly collapse this season. Their entire starting secondary (cornerbacks Chris Harris Jr., Bradley Roby and Aqib Talib and safeties T.J Ward and Darian Stewart) that was responsible for their top-ranked pass defense are all back, the team re-signed star outside linebacker/sack artist Von Miller to a long-term deal (6 years/$114.5 mil/$70 mil guaranteed) and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is back to serve as the unpredictable maestro of this unit. While its unlikely that they'll be as overwhelmingly dominant as they were a year ago, it would be nothing short of a catastrophic shock if they weren't at least a top 5 defense again in 2016.

Bottom Line:

I strongly believe the rumors of the Broncos demise following the departures of Manning, Osweiler Jackson and Trevathan are greatly exaggerated and that they'll be able to return to the playoffs without incident.

Kansas City Chiefs 

2015 Record: 11-5 (2nd in AFC West)

Head Coach: Andy Reid (4th season)

Notable Additions: T Mitchell Schwartz, QB Nick Foles, CB Kenneth Acker

Notable Departures: CB Sean Smith, G Jeff Allen, T Donald Stephenson

Offense:
The Chiefs offense has become synonymous with continuity since Andy Reid arrived in 2012 and that tradition has not been abandoned for the 2016 season. With the exception of a few tweaks on the offensive line (former Browns right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and rookie left guard Parker Ehinger are stepping in for Donald Stephenson and Jeff Allen, who both departed in free agency and right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has surpassed 2015 starter Zach Fulton on the depth chart), this is the the same group that played a key part in their 10-game winning streak a year ago. Quarterback Alex Smith's ultra-conservative play is less than ideal for any game situation that requires a quick score and the lack of weapons behind top wideout Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce is concerning, but those issues pale in comparison to what approximately half of the offenses in the league are facing heading into this season.
 
The only real question mark on this offense is if running backs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West can continue to be successful fill-ins for decorated veteran Jammal Charles. Charles is reportedly going to miss the first few weeks of the season as he continues to recover from the ACL he suffered last October against the Bears, which is a bit concerning considering his age (he'll be 30 in December) and how crucial a role he plays in the success of this offense. The rushing attack keeps the Chiefs ball-control offense afloat and if Ware and West can't repeat their production from a year ago, the offense could bottom out until (or potentially if) Charles comes back at full speed.

Defense:

The Chiefs defense got dealt a couple of huge blows this offseason with stalwart starting cornerback Sean Smith leaving for the division-rival Raiders in free agency and star outside linebacker Justin Houston slated to be out for at least the first 6 games of the season after getting a knee scope to "fix" his ACL in February. The team clearly viewed Smith as expendable following the emergence of Marcus Peters last season and have a promising young corner in Steven Nelson that is ready to step into a starting role , but the loss of Houston for a prolonged period of time is potentially devastating to a defense that finished in the top 5 in the league in points allowed, sacks and rush defense a year ago. Having the excellent Tamba Hali at the other outside linebacker spot certainly helps matters, but there's no one else currently on the roster that appears to be capable of stepping up and pairing with Hali to create the patented dual edge-rushing havoc that has made the Chiefs one of the most feared defenses in the league over the past few seasons.

Having a leader and catalyst for the productivity of the entire unit in Houston miss at least a chunk of the season is certainly going to sting, but there's still enough talent here to keep them afloat while Houston recuperates. 4-time Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry and reigning defensive rookie of the year Peters gives them one of the most gifted secondaries in the league, their defensive line (nose tackle Dontrari Poe and ends Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey) is one of the most quietly stalwart units in the league and Hali and Houston's fill-in Dee Ford should be able to generate enough of a pass rush to keep opposing quarterbacks on their toes. If Houston comes back after his 6-game stint on the PUP list without showing any substantial signs of rust or lingering effects from his surgery, the Chiefs defense should be able to retain their standing as one of the league's most dominant groups.

Bottom Line:

Despite retaining a majority of their key players, I don't think the Chiefs will be able to duplicate their Cinderella playoff run in 2016.

Oakland Raiders

2015 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC West)

Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (2nd season)

Notable Additions: G Kelechi Osemele, CB Sean Smith, OLB Bruce Irvin

Notable Departures: S Charles Woodson (retired), DE Justin Tuck (retired), G J'Marcus Webb

Offense:
With the possible exception of the Jaguars, no young offense made more waves than the Raiders did in 2015. Quarterback Derek Carr looked like a strong, polished future franchise quarterback finishing with 32 TD's and just under the 4,000-yard benchmark (3,986) for the year, running back Latavius Murray proved he could handle a major workload increase with a 1,000+ rushing yards in his 1st season as a starter and wide receiver Amari Cooper showed flashes of superstar potential in his productive (72 REC, 1,070 YDS, 6 TD) albeit sometimes very ugly (he had 10 drops, which was tied for 2nd most in the league) rookie campaign.


With another year of experience under their collective belts and the addition of elite guard Kelechi Osemele to an offensive line that was already one of the best in the league, this promising young offense appears set to take another leap forward in 2016. Carr and Cooper's chemistry should continue to grow in their 2nd year together and heavily-hyped rookie/preseason phenom DeAndre Washington could give the Raiders another talented young back to put alongside Murray in the backfield. If everything materializes, this offense has the cache of weapons to be a top 10 offense in the league this year. 

Defense:
General manager Reggie McKenzie's vigilant rebuilding process started to net results as the Raiders finished 13th against the run and tied for 14th in the league with 38 sacks in 2015. The defense still had its fair share of flaws (they surrendered 24.9 points per game, which was 22nd-most in the league and their pass defense was ranked 26th overall), but the play of 2nd-year outside linebacker/defensive end Khalil Mack, rookie defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. and 3rd-year cornerback David Amerson inspired a lot of confidence for the future.

The excitement building around their potent young offense and having a potential superstar in Mack on defense allowed the Raiders to become a huge player in free agency this offseason. The Raiders were able to scoop up a trio of starters in outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, cornerback Sean Smith and 2015 All-Pro safety Reggie Nelson. Irvin, Smith and Nelson not only address major needs (pass defense, pass-rush depth) throughout the defense, but they're all signed to contracts that won't put the Raiders into cap hell (Smith's was the steepest at 4 years/$40 million with $20 mil in guaranteed money). These moves give the Raiders the veteran presences they need to potentially elevate this defense to the next level while still giving McKenzie the freedom to add more pieces in the future if need be.

Bottom Line:

With a nice combination of accomplished veterans and rising young stars throughout the roster, the Raiders are in an excellent position to overthrow the Broncos and Chiefs as the top dogs in the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers

2015 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC West)

Head Coach: Mike McCoy (4th season)

Notable Additions: C/G Matt Slauson, DT Brandon Mebane, WR Travis Benjamin

Notable Departures: S Eric Weddle, TE Ladarius Green, CB Patrick Robinson

Offense:

The horrors of the injury-plagued 2015 season exposed a horrible lack of depth on the Chargers offense. As hard as Phillip Rivers tried to makes things happen with a depleted offense, he just couldn't with a makeshift offensive line, receiving corps made up of kick-return specialists and practice squad players and a non-existent running game.

General manager Tom Telasco took these depth issues into account and made addressing them a top priority in both the draft and free agency by bringing in wide receiver Travis Benjamin, center/guard Matt Slauson, tight end Hunter Henry and center Max Turek. Benjamin gives Rivers a solid number 2 receiving option with the blistering speed to take the top off of an opposing defense on any given play while Slauson is a reliable, versatile player that should be able to help put a stop to the unrest that plagued this offensive line last season. Rookies Henry and Turek are unlikely to have as significant of roles as Benjamin and Slauson do this season, but they're both very promising prospects that give the team intriguing young options if the injury bug wreaks havoc once again this season.  

The additional depth is a nice insurance policy for the team, but its the return of all their injured starters of a year ago that is most likely to have the biggest impact on the fate of this offense in 2016. Top-flight young wideout Keenan Allen was easily the highest-profile player to be lost in the injury purge as he was on pace to have a career year before going down with a lacerated spleen during the team's matchup with the Ravens in Week 8. Allen's absence directly correlated to the woes the 2nd half of the season offered up for the team's passing attack and his return to the fold alone should be enough to reclaim their prime spot in the league's aerial pecking order. Left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin may not be as vital to the team's success as Allen is, but their return marks a step in the right direction for an offensive line looking to bounce back to form after an awful 2015 campaign. Rivers and head coach Mike McCoy have to be downright giddy to see what they can accomplish with this group back at nearly full health going into this season.

Defense:
The Chargers front office royally boned their defense heading into 2016. Their disrespect forced star safety Eric Weddle to leave in free agency and their unwillingness to fully guarantee Joey Bosa's rookie deal forced a ridiculous standoff that resulted in the number 3 overall pick missing all of training camp before signing with the team on August 29th, just 13 days ahead of the season opener against the Chiefs. The front office definitely has personnel skills as evidenced by their solid track record of drafting and free-agent pickups, but these types of stories allude to the type of internal dysfunction that can ruin an NFL locker room.

On the field, the Chargers can take solace in the fact that they have one of the promising sets of young players in the league. Jason Verrett has cemented himself as a borderline shutdown corner in just 2 years in the league, inside linebacker Denzel Perryman played very well once he was inserted into the starting lineup around the midway point of last season and the edge-rushing tandem of Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu are coming off of a 2015 season where they picked up a combined 16.5 sacks and will be hungry to top that benchmark in 2016 as they are both up for new contracts in the offseason.

Unfortunately for the Bolts D, that solid amount of young talent is undermined by a slew of glaring holes throughout the defense. An aging Brandon Mebane will most likely not stop their rush defense from being one of the worst league for a 3rd straight season, frequently-torched Brandon Flowers somehow still has a starting cornerback job and without Weddle, the safety position that has been been one of the team's longtime strengths has suddenly turned into one of their biggest vulnerabilities. Their young corps should be good enough to prevent them from being one of the worst defenses in the league, but it's unlikely they'll be able to improve upon their below average numbers from a year ago (21st in points allowed, 20th in yards allowed) without some perennially underachieving players (inside linebacker Mant'i Teo, Flowers) stepping up their game tremendously.

Bottom Line: 
The Chargers should improve from their disastrous 2015 campaign, but they don't appear to have the overall talent to compete in this very tough division.

Projected Standings:
1.Oakland Raiders (10-6)
2.Denver Broncos (10-6)
3.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
4.San Diego Chargers (6-10)

2016 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans

2015 Record: 9-7 (1st in AFC South)

Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (3rd season)

Notable Additions: RB Lamar Miller, QB Brock Osweiler, G Jeff Allen

Notable Departures: G Brandon Brooks, RB Arian Foster, QB Brian Hoyer

Offense:
Brian Hoyer's historically bad performance (15/34, 136 YDS, 4 INT, 15.4 QBR) in the Texans 30-0 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Wild Card Weekend served as the wake-up call they needed to end the below average quarterback carousel they've had since Matt Schaub shit the bed during the 2013 season. The solution Texans came up with to end their long-standing quarterback woes was to bring in free-agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. Osweiler rose to prominence last year after going 5-2 as a starter for the Broncos filling in for the injured Peyton Manning before he was unceremoniously benched again in favor of Manning following a poor performance against the Chargers in the final week of the regular season. Despite his limited sample size and the possibility that the Broncos stellar defense was responsible for his success, the team clearly believes in him based on the hefty contract they gave him (4 years/$72 mil/$37 mil guaranteed) and their dedication to bolster the receiver depth behind rising star DeAndre Hopkins in this year's draft (they selected Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in the 1st and 3rd rounds respectively). I've been highly critical of the Osweiler signing all offseason, but if his preseason play is any indicator, he may be the reliable starting quarterback the Texans need to make it to next level.

The Texans also finally severed ties with their oft-injured, former star running back Arian Foster prior to the start of free agency. Foster was quickly replaced by former Dolphins starter Lamar Miller, the clear prize of 2016's free agent running back class. After suffering through a season with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, Jonathan Grimes and Kenny Hillard splitting carries for 12 of the 16 games on the schedule, Miller should be a godsend and is exactly the type of player that can return their rushing attack to its former glory. Miller showed flashes of dominance during his 4 years with the Dolphins, but he was never given carries (he eclipsed 200 carries in a season only once during his tenure there) to truly flourish. With a respectable offensive line in front of him and a coach in Bill O'Brien that places a high value on the running game, Miller has a shot of being the dominant feature back he was never got the chance to be in Miami.  

Defense:
The Texans defense has consistently been one of the premier units in the league over the past 4 years. They have an excellent pass-rush, stiff red-zone defense (they've allowed less than 21 points per game in 2 of the last 3 seasons) and a solid nucleus of talent throughout the defense with cornerback Jonathan Joseph and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus being among the best players in the league at their respective positions. That being said, their standing as one of the best defenses in the league is largely attributed to the play of defensive end J.J. Watt. The man is a god damn wrecking ball and there's no defender in league right now that can top the level of disruption he causes as both a pass-rusher and run-stuffer every time he takes the field.


While Watt is still in the middle of his prime at age 27, there's reason to be concerned about the 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year's heading into 2016. Watt received sports hernia and back surgery this offseason and is rumored to be trying to play in the season opener against the Bears before he's fully healed. There's no doubting Watt's toughness and competitive nature, but that potential recklessness could put the long-term success of the entire organization in jeopardy. The relentless physicality he plays with is starting to break down his body and if he continues to play at this clip without taking the necessary time to heal from his ailments, regression is going to come and with that regression likely comes the demise of the Texans defense. The Texans livelihood for this season and the foreseeable future lies on Watt's shoulders and if he comes back too soon from injury and/or is held back by any of his ailments by when he returns to the field, the team's bid to become the perennial team to beat in the AFC South will likely come up short.

Bottom Line:

Even with the additions of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, the Texans are basically in the same place they were at the end of last season. Anything more than another Wild Round exit would be a huge surprise.

Indianapolis Colts

2015 Record: 8-8 (2nd in AFC South)

Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (5th season)

Notable Additions: CB Patrick Robinson, CB Antonio Cromartie, QB Scott Tolzien

Notable Departures: WR Andre Johnson, ILB Jerrell Freeman, TE Coby Fleener

 Offense:
 Despite his underwhelming, injury-plagued 2015 in which he only played 7 games, the Colts made Andrew Luck the highest played in the league this offseason with an absurd 5-year/$122.9 mil extension ($87 mil guaranteed). With all of the money they just invested in him and Matt Hasselbeck-who was the main reason they were fortunate enough to go .500 last year-finally hanging it up after 18 years in the league, the Colts better hope Luck stays healthy this season because Scott Tolzien (aka Aaron Rodgers's former clipboard holder) and Stephen Morris,who I didn't even known was a person until I was doing research for this piece, more than likely aren't going to be able keep the team afloat in his absence.
Barring a string of nagging injuries like he suffered last season, the odds of Luck returning to form this season are strong. Luck's struggles in 2015 were due to playing injured from the jump (he was playing through an injured shoulder before he the kidney and abdominal injury KO'ed him for the season), not lack of skill or poise under pressure. Luck proved in his first 3 seasons in the league that he has all of the necessary intangibles (leadership, intelligence, ability to make any throw he's asked to in any game situation, etc.) to be a successful quarterback in the league and his receiving corps has actually managed to get better in his absence thanks to the emergence of Donte Moncrief as a reliable number 2 wideout alongside established top dog T.Y. Hilton, which puts him in an excellent position to post another 4,000+ yard, 30-TD season.

General manager Ryan Grigson also decided to do his part in helping Luck bounce back by finally investing in their broken offensive line by selecting Alabama center Ryan Kelly in the first round. Kelly has looked great in the preseason so far and if he can continue to act as a stabilizing presence in the middle of the line, Luck is unlikely to get shelled by opposing pass-rushes like he did in 2015. Luck will force some ill-advised passes into double/triple coverage and backbreaking picks from time to time, but I fully expect him to quiet the doubters and return to being one of the best young quarterbacks in football this season. 

Defense:
The below-average Colts defense was already dealt a spectacular piece of news when it was announced that top cornerback Vontae Davis had been ruled out for at least the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain that has left ligament damage. With Davis out of the equation, the Colts are now forced to choose from a motley crew of corners to replace one of the few players on this unit that isn't a liability week-in and week-out. Darius Butler is flat-out awful, Patrick Robinson is a solid slot corner with questionable abilities on the outside, D'Joun Smith is a 2nd-year player trying to make up for lost time after missing almost all of his rookie season with an undisclosed knee injury and the way over-the-hill Antonio Cromartie is only here so he can continue to pay his dozens of active child support payments. The Colts better pray for a speedy recovery from Davis because this corner group appears to be destined for epic failure.

Aside from Davis's injury and the loss of excellent inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman to the Bears in free agency, it's business as usual for the Colts defense. The trademark Colts combo of rapidly aging guys clinging onto starting jobs (inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, safety Mike Adams, outside linebacker Robert Mathis) and young players that are pretty much DOA (safety Winston Guy, outside linebacker Erik Walden, defensive end Zach Kerr) with a couple of intriguing starters thrown in to inspire some (likely false) hope for the future (defensive end Henry Anderson, inside linebacker Sio Moore) is somehow still alive and well. The Colts defense is competent enough to avoid being in the bottom 5 of the league in at least most of the meaningful categories yet still bad enough to lose them games when it counts. Defense is what ultimately cost Peyton Manning the chance of bringing multiple championships and it will likely be what ruins Luck's tenure with the team as well.  

Bottom Line: 
As long as Andrew Luck is healthy and producing at the level he was prior to last season, the Colts will be the team to beat in the AFC South and have an outside chance of winning the conference. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 Record: 5-11 (3rd in AFC South)

Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4th season)

Notable Additions: DE Malik Jackson, RB Chris Ivory, S Tashaun Gibson

Notable Departures: G Zane Beadles, C Stefen Wisnewski, P Bryan Anger

Offense:

The silver lining of another miserable season for the Jaguars in 2015 was the emergence of their young offensive corps. Blake Bortles flashed plenty of franchise quarterback potential, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns made a serious case for being the receiver tandem in football, and running back T.J. Yeldon was a productive two-way back despite getting relatively limited touches.

While garbage time-forced passing situations undeniably inflated Bortles and the Allen's numbers a bit, I expect this offense to be at least as good as they were last year. Bortles, Robinson and Hurns are all entering their 3rd seasons in the league, which means they are just now starting to unlock their true potential after spending the past 2 seasons getting used to the nuances of playing football at the professional level and developing a strong rapport with one another. Having a young QB/WR group adjust to the speed of the NFL and grow as players together is excellent for the development of all parties involved and if the play of other young tandems including Andy Dalton/A.J. Green and Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton are any indicators, the Jaguars aerial reign of terror is just getting started.

The only thing that I believe could derail the continued growth of this offense is their offensive line. The collective failure of the big men upfront has caused Bortles to get outright assaulted (he's been sacked 106 times in his first 2 seasons) and made their run game largely ineffective (they've finished 27th, 21st and 31st in the league over the past 3 seasons). They did re-shuffle the deck a bit heading into 2016 by bringing in former Steeler Kelvin Beachum to play left tackle and shifting 2013 draft bust Luke Jockel inside to guard and guard Brandon Linder to center, but there's currently no indication as to whether or not these moves are going to be enough to prevent this o-line from being one of the worst in the league yet again this season. With an offense that is driven by a potent, mid-to-deep ball passing attack and just invested in veteran Chris Ivory to bolster their depth and potentially stop their recent woes at running back, the Jaguars offensive line is going to need to step up so this offense can take their next substantial step forward. 

Defense:
Despite having a head coach in Gus Bradley that played an integral part in building the Seahawks currently dominant defense, the Jaguars defense has not made significant improvements since he arrived in 2013, allowing an average of 375 yards and 27.3 points per game in his 3 years with the team (only the Bears have allowed more points over this time frame). The Jaguars front office finally decided that they needed to take swift action to try and improve their defense, so they took advantage of their loads of cap space (estimated at $80 million prior to the start of this year's free agency period) by inking defensive end/tackle Malik Jackson, safety Tashuan Gibson and cornerback Prince Amukamara to deals in free agency. Every single one of these signings, save for Amukamara was brought in on a 1-year "prove it-deal", is a high-risk move that could be destined for a "Worst Free Agent Signings in NFL history" list if they don't work out, but they're the type of chances you need to take when you have a defense that desperately needs to improve and the available cap space to make splashy signings that could have a massive impact on the quality of this defense.

While their free-agent signings grabbed more headlines and have more pressure on them to succeed, it's the young players that have the greatest potential to turn the tide on this defense. The Jaguars have 3 high-profile player players in rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey and inside linebacker Myles Jack, and 2nd-year defensive end Dante Fowler Jr, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, currently slated to be in the starting lineup. It's clearly impossible to know right now if they're going to deliver at the professional level, but it's hard to not be intrigued by a trio of the most lauded and intriguing talents of the past 2 NFL drafts lining up on the same defense. Young players have completely changed the trajectory of the Jaguars offense and if Ramsey, Jack and Fowler Jr. end up delivering on their immense promise, they could have a similar game-changing effect on the defense.     

Bottom Line:

While their talented young offensive nucleus has put them in the best spot they've been in nearly a decade, they still have too many holes at key positions to make a playoff run in 2016.

Tennessee Titans

2015 Record: 3-13 (4th in AFC South)

Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (1st season as full-time coach)

Notable Additions: RB DeMarco Murray, S Rashad Johnson, WR Rishard Matthews

Notable Departures: S Michael Griffin, QB Zach Mettenberger, CB Coty Sensabaugh

  
Offense:
The Titans had a head coaching vacancy to fill after firing Ken Wisenhunt 7 games into last season. With a lauded young quarterback in Marcus Mariota at the helm and a new general manager in Jon Robinson that spent 12 seasons working in the Patriots front office, the Titans appeared to be in a great position to attract and eventually land a very promising coach. Despite interviewing Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and former Bills head coach Doug Marrone for the job, the Titans ultimately chose to promote interim head coach Mike Mularkey, who went 2-7 in his 9 games running the show last season, to the full-time position. For those aren't familiar with the rich history of Mularkey's coaching career, he was previously the head coach of the Bills and Jaguars and during his 3 seasons  (2 with the Bills, 1 with the Jaguars), he went a whopping 16-32. WHAT A PEDIGREE. Mularkey might have a sketchy track record as a head coach, but at least he's bringing his dynamic "exotic smash mouth" (which is already a contender for my all-time favorite piece of NFL jargon) offensive philosophy to Nashville. Questionable depth and general talent throughout the offense are irrelevant when you're playing Mularkey's brand of TOUGH and UNPREDICTABLE football. I understand wanting to keep continuity in place for a young quarterback trying to get acclimated to the league, but retaining a coach who has multiple failed head coaching stints on his resume solely not to shake things up is a baffling and potentially damaging decision by the Titans brass.


The team continued their outstanding offseason by acquiring the gigantic contract of running back DeMarco Murray from the Eagles. The Titans must be the only team in the league that doesn't know Murray's magical 1,845-yard, 13 TD 2014 campaign was a result of running behind an offensive line that opened up holes that you can fit a mack truck through on a weekly basis and him staying healthy for the only time in his career. Murray has been productive in the preseason, but I'm incredibly hesitant to buy in on this offensive line blocking competently and more importantly, him displaying urgency and burst when he runs for an entire season-especially with the looming threat of promising rookie running back Derrick Henry cutting into his playing time

Mariota is clearly the only person that is capable of helping this offense overcome its slew of issues and become a functional, productive group in 2016. I'm still not nearly as high on him as most people in league circles seem to be, but there was some signs that he could morph into a solid NFL quarterback buried underneath all of the lows he endured during his 3-9 rookie season (he missed 4 games with a sprained MCL). He's unusually accurate for a young quarterback (62.2 CMP% last season) and he wisely uses his rushing ability to evade pressure and turn broken passing plays into positive gains on the ground without relying on his legs to be his primary source of creating offense. If he can continue to get a better feel for running a sophisticated NFL offense and rookie wideout Tajae Sharpe can carry the momentum from his stellar training camp and preseason into the regular season and give the team a second receiving threat to put next to tight end Delanie Walker, he could be line for a massive uptick in his sophomore campaign and make me look like a big moron for labeling him a potential bust when he came out of Oregon last year. 

Defense:
Newly-minted defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has inherited a group that is eerily similar to the Steelers unit he coached during his last season as their defensive general in 2014. There are a few unheralded talents (safety Da'Norris Searcy, outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard) and a bonafide superstar in defensive tackle Jurell Casey among the bunch, but it's a mostly average group that isn't likely to drum up much excitement or disdain. I expect plenty of trademark scowls from LeBeau, who turns 79 in September, on the sideline as he coaches this subpar bunch to a 14th or 15th overall ranking before he says "fuck it" and finally retires the minute the regular season ends.


Even with the coordinator change and 6 draft picks spent on the defensive side of the ball, this is pretty much the same nondescript ensemble of characters that took the field a year ago. Veteran safety Rashad Johnson was a decent pickup to aid their depth-challenged secondary, but he's not the type of player that's going to come in and change the fabric of this defense. If this group is able to mimic their production from 2015, they'll have a pretty good pass defense (7th in the league) with a rush defense (17th) and pass-rush (tied for 12th in sacks) that is squarely in the middle of the pack. No team has perfected the recipe for boring, middling defense like the Titans and it would be pretty surprising if someone took away that dubious honor from them in 2016.

Bottom Line:
With a tough schedule and roster still in a state of flux, The Titans are once again in a rough spot heading into the 2016 season.

Projected Standings

1.Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
 2.Houston Texans (8-8)

3.Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)

4.Tennessee Titans (4-12) 

2016 NFL Preview: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

2015 Record: 5-11 (3rd in AFC North)

Head Coach: John Harbaugh (9th season)

Notable Additions: S Eric Weddle, WR Mike Wallace, CB Jerraud Powers

Notable Departures: G Kelechi Osemele, ILB Daryl Smith, T Eugene Monroe (retired)

Offense:
The Ravens offense going into 2016 is not in the greatest shape from an overall talent standpoint, but they're at least on track to be healthy out of the gate after major injuries to key players pretty much single-handedly derailed their 2015 season. Quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, wide receiver Steve Smith, center Jeremy Zuttah and tight end Crockett Gilmore haven't had setbacks in their rehabilitation and are all currently slated to be on the field when the Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. If the improbable happens and the offense gets bombarded with injuries and/or further regresses, my theory that their offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is a demon that was sent from the depths of hell to ruin talented offense is correct and general manager Ozzie Newsome should put a stop to his reign of terror by promptly throwing him into a piranha tank.
 
With the health of their top players presumably restored, the Ravens primary concern can be shifted over to their offensive line. They are returning 3 out of 5 starters including perennial All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda, but the loss of left guard Kelechi Osemele in free agency and left tackle Eugene Monroe to retirement could be potentially devastating for this unit. Osemele is one of the most powerful, well-rounded guards in the league and while Monroe has been plagued by injury over the past couple of years, he was a rock-solid left tackle whenever he was on the field. Osemele and Monroe are being replaced by John Urschel and rookie Ronnie Stanley, who was selected 6th overall in this year's draft. Urschel has picked up 10 starts (mostly at center after Zuttah got injured last season) over the past 2 seasons, but hasn't shown enough to prove he's capable of being a full-time starter in the league and while Stanley has showed a lot of promise in training camp and the preseason so far, left tackle at the professional level has such a steep learning curve that even the promising players at the position tend to get destroyed as rookies. If the newcomers struggle to adjust to being full-time starters in the NFL and right tackle Ricky Wagner can't return to form after a disastrous 2015 campaign, the Ravens could end up having their worst offensive line in at least a decade.

Their receiver group is also going to need to mesh if they want to return to form this season. Steve Smith Sr. will be back for his 16th NFL season, but coming off of a major Achilles injury at age 37 makes his comeback bid far from a sure thing. Things are equally unsettled behind Smith. 2015 1st-round pick Breshad Perriman-who has yet to play a down in the NFL-seems to develop a new ailment every day, free-agent pickup Mike Wallace is an excellent fit for the Ravens deep-ball heavy passing game, but his limited route tree and shaky hands make it hard for him to be relied upon as a primary target, their clusterfuck of tight ends (Maxx Williams, Gilmore, Nick Boyle, the newly-signed Benjamin Watson, possibly the remains of Dennis Pitta) are all average at best and it's currently unclear how 2015 standout Kamar Aiken will fare when he's not the only competent option in the passing game. There's certainly some promise with their young guys (especially Aiken) and Smith has defied the odds so many times before that it's hard to seriously doubt him, but there's also no reason to have serious faith in any wide receiver or tight end that is currently on the Ravens roster.
  

Defense:
 The passing of the torch in the Ravens defensive front appears to be in full swing.The Ravens used their 2nd and 3rd round picks in this year's draft on a pair of edge-rushers in Kamalei Correa and Bronson Kaufusi and a 4th-rounder on defensive tackle/end Willie Henry. Adding Correa, Kaufusi and Henry to a group of already promising young players anchored by inside linebacker C.J Mosley, defensive end Timmy Jernigan and nose tackle Brandon Williams proves that Newsome is making a conscious effort to not repeat the sins of other teams with aging stars by bringing in new blood while the older guys (Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil) are still around to hold down starting spots and bestow their wisdom onto the young guys before they ride off into the sunset.

Just like the past few seasons, the Ravens strong front appears set to be undermined by the utter chaos and general lack of talent within their secondary. The addition of 5-time All-Pro safety Eric Weddle in free agency appeared to be the game-changing move they needed to finally get back on track, but that was almost immediately offset by the loss of talented young safety Will Hill, who was released 48 hours after Weddle signed with the team after once again demonstrating his lack of commitment to football by picking up his 4th drug-related suspension in 5 seasons.

To offset the loss of Hill, the Ravens have moved longtime starting corner Lardarius Webb to free safety. Plenty of aging, former star corners have found at new life after being moved to safety later in their career (Charles Woodson, Rod Woodson, Ronde Barber), but none of them were struggling as bad or as injury-prone as Webb at this point of their careers. However, Webb is only about four years removed from being an elite NFL corner, so it's certainly possible that this move could revitalize his career and make head coach John Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Dean Pees look like geniuses in the process.

The cornerback situation is somehow even messier than safety. Shareece Wright and Jimmy Smith did a fun body swap exercise in 2015 as the usually inept Wright turned into a pretty solid player as soon as he arrived in Baltimore (he was signed in early October after being released by the 49ers) while the usually excellent Smith looked like a rookie who was in way over his head dealing with top wideouts. Anyway you could possibly assess the prospects of Wright and Smith for this season, this a corner tandem that you simply can't rely on to be productive heading into 2016.

It wouldn't be a Ravens season preview without talking about their inability to lock down a competent slot corner. It looked like they had finally found the answer when they signed ex-Patriot Kyle Arrington, but he was a massive disappointment in his 1st season with the team. The Ravens newest bold solution to their slot corner woes was to bring in veteran Jerraud Powers, who has spent the past 3 seasons being the weak link in an otherwise excellent Cardinals secondary. Powers is a below average corner at best and I don't see how he's going to fare any better than Arrington did in the slot. As far as I'm concerned, the decision to play Powers and Arrington in the slot is a coin-flip with no good outcome. They are both established, mediocre veterans who hit their ceilings years ago and are unlikely to make this embattled secondary any better or worse. 

Bottom Line:
The Ravens are one of the most popular choices for a bounceback season in 2016, but the unusual amount of question marks that they have surrounding them on both sides of the ball leads me to believe that they'll miss the playoffs for a 2nd straight season.

Cincinnati Bengals

2015 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC North)

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (14th season)

Notable Additions: WR Brandon LaFell, ILB Karlos Dansby, S Jimmy Wilson

Notable Departures: WR Marvin Jones, S Reggie Nelson, WR Momahed Sanu

Offense:
While I doubt it will happen given the consistent contempt Bengals fans show for their team, they should welcome back starting quarterback Andy Dalton with open arms this season. A.J McCarron was able to keep the ship afloat when Dalton was held out of the last 4 games of the season after suffering a broken thumb on his throwing hand making an ill-advised tackle on an interception return in Week 14 against the Steelers, but he was merely a middling game manager who couldn't be called upon to make big plays. Dalton is a productive and proven veteran quarterback with an excellent track record in the regular season and as long as he's out there, the Bengals are going to be in playoff contention in the AFC.

Dalton's return has made some waves, but the main storyline coming out of Bengals camp this offseason is who's going to land the vacant starting receiver spot (2015 starter Marvin Jones signed with the Lions in free agency) alongside star wideout A.J. Green. With last year's number 3 wideout Momahed Sanu also departing in free agency, the battle for the number 2 receiver job appears to be between newly-added veteran wideout Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd. LaFell appears to have the inside track for the job at the moment, but if the drop problem he showed with the Patriots last season continues in the early stages of this season, Boyd should be able to take his job in no time at all.

Some analysts have theorized that the running game is going to suffer now that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is gone, but I firmly believe that the Bengals rushing attack is going to be stronger in 2016. Their heavily-criticized starting running back Jeremy Hill had one of the biggest sophomore slumps after an excellent rookie campaign in recent memory with a weak 3.6 YDS per carry and a well below-average 794 yards in 2015, but I expect this to only be a bump in the road for the LSU-bred running back. Giovani Bernard followed up his promising rookie campaign with a terrible 2nd season before getting back on track last year. With one of the best offensive lines in the league in front of him and a punishing rushing style that tends to lead to high production levels in the NFL, Hill is in an excellent position to have a similar resurgence in 2016. If Hill can get back on track, this offense should be able to remain the well-balanced force they were under Jackson.
 
Defense:
The cash-strapped Bengals were forced to make some tough decisions in free agency this season with 4 starters hitting the open market. They wisely decided to use their limited space to re-up on their excellent 26-year old safety George Iloka and cornerback Adam Jones, who is strangely playing the best football in his early 30's and let 2015 All-Pro safety Reggie Nelson, who turns 33 in September and 9-year veteran cornerback Leon Hall walk.

Outside of  Nelson, Hall and backup defensive end Wallace Gilberry, this is basically the same unit that took the field in 2015. The defensive front led by defensive tackle Geno Atkins and defensive end Carlos Dunlap features one of the most explosive pass-rushes in the league, their rush defense is quietly excellent (finished 7th in the league in 2015) and while losing a player of Nelson and rookie cornerback William Jackson III to a season-ending pectoral tear stings, there's enough talent in place to ensure that the secondary doesn't completely collapse this season. With little notable changes and every notable contributor (except for Jones) under the age of 30, this defense appears to be in pristine shape heading into 2016. 

Bottom Line:
This looks like a classic Bengals team, so expect a solid regular season before their annual grand-scale meltdown on Wild Card weekend.

Cleveland Browns

2015 Record: 3-13 (4th in AFC North)

Head Coach: Hue Jackson (1st season)

Notable Additions: QB Robert Griffin III, ILB Demario Davis, S Rahim Moore

Notable Departures: C Alex Mack, T Mitchell Schwartz, QB Johnny Manziel

Offense:
The Cleveland Browns finally decided to do the mass house-cleaning they've putting off for a decade this season by firing head coach Mike Pettine, general manager Ray Farmer and either releasing or refusing to re-sign 9 starters this offseason. Arguably the most notable move of the bunch was the decision to cut ties with troubled quarterback Johnny Manziel after 2 seasons because of his off-the-field partying antics.

With Manziel now of the picture, would they draft another quarterback at the top of the draft? Or perhaps bring in a journeyman veteran to serve as a stopgap until they find a young player they like? The answer to both of those questions is of course not. The new Browns braintrust headed by general manager Sashi Brown and his team of Ivy League-educated analytics guys thought the safest bet to replace their embattled young quarterback was to bring in another one in Robert Griffin III, who is essentially just Manziel without the coke problem. After the RG3 signing, I'm questioning whether or not the Browns number-crunchers even graduated from middle school, let alone Harvard or Princeton.

RG3's career following his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign in 2012 has been a trainwreck of epic proportions  He's been playing in a perpetual state of fear since he torn his ACL in the wild card game back in January 2013 and his throwing mechanics and accuracy seem to get worse every time he takes the field. In addition to his visible lack of confidence under center and penchant for ugly throws, he's so mentally fragile that he notoriously clashed with former head coach Mike Shanahan for making him watch tape of his bad throws. While I think that head coach Hue Jackson is an excellent football mind who is capable of creating the most stable locker room atmosphere he's had since he's been in the league, I think RG3's treasure trove of problems on-and-off-the-field are past the point of fixing.

Adding to the impending doom of RG3's tenure at quarterback is an unstable offensive line and untested receiver group. The status of the offensive line, which had been of the team's few strengths in recent years, went up in flames this offseason following the departure of center Alex Mack and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz in free agency. Mack and Schwartz were two of the only pillars of stability within this team over the past few years and their presence will be sorely missed as the Brown hit the reset button on their roster. Left tackle Joe Thomas-who should win the Walter Payton Man of The Year every single year for voluntarily spending the duration of his entire Hall-of-Fame career so far with the Browns-alone is enough to prevent the line from being a complete disaster, but there's reason to be seriously concerned about the rest of the unit. Cameron Erving was terrible as a fill-in starter at guard last season and the prospect of moving to center to replace Mack is fucking terrifying, right tackle Austin Pasztor got released by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, prior to the start of last season and both of their guards (John Greco and Joel Bitonio) are coming off of below average seasons in 2015. RG3 is probably cowering in a corner and crying as we speak at the thought of playing with "Thomas and the 4 Jabronis" in front of him this season.

On paper, the receiver situation seems pretty alright. Rookie Corey Coleman has reportedly been highly impressive throughout offseason workouts and one-time star wideout Josh Gordon managed to put the bong down for long enough to get reinstated by the league after an 18-month suspension. However, I have almost no faith that RG3 will be able to get them the football. The main knock on Coleman is his limited route tree, which doesn't bode well for a quarterback that is wildly inaccurate past 5-10 yards and despite his familiarity with RG3 during their time together at Baylor, Gordon's extended absence from football raises a lot of questions about whether or not he can still play with the same polish and edge that he had before Rodger Goodell sent him into exile for smoking the jazz cigarettes. Behind Coleman and Gordon, the prospects are bleak. Taylor Gabriel is good for the occasional surprise 65-yard touchdown and nothing else, Terrelle Pryor is a converted quarterback that has made some splash plays in the preseason, but will likely flounder the minute the regular season starts and Andrew Hawkins somehow manged to survive the mass roster purge in the offseason. If RG3 can magically regain his swag back, this passing attack could be surprisingly effective. If he continues to be the sadsack RG3 of the past 3 seasons, the Browns aerial attack will likely be even worse than it was when Brian Hoyer and Austin Davis were under center. 

The potential of their rushing attack is the only reason to get excited about the Browns offense this season. Jackson is a strong proponent of the running game and he has a pair of promising backs in Isiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr that could flourish in his system. Crowell has been reasonably productive in his first 3 years in the league and Johnson Jr. showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie campaign a year ago and seems like he could be the top beneficiary of Jackson's arrival in the Forest City. Given their shakiness at quarterback, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Browns had a top 10 rushing offense this season.
     

Defense:
The Browns overhaul was arguably more drastic on the defensive side of the ball than offense. The team wisely dumped a lot of their overpaid aging starters (safety Donte Whitner, inside linebacker Karlos Dansby, defensive end Randy Starks) and showed their dedication to injecting the defense with young talent by selecting outside linebacker Emmanuel Ogbah and defensive end Carl Nassib with 2 of their first 3 picks in this year's draft.


The ousting of the team's older starters gives excellent opportunities for their young players including defensive tackle Danny Shelton, outside linebacker Nate Orchard and safety Ibraheim Campbell to prove their worth. However, that opportunity is bound to come with a lot of growing pains for this young nucleus (6 of their 11 projected starters have been in the league for 4 seasons or less) that collectively has very limited starting experience. Even the few veteran presences they have scattered throughout this group are unlikely to do much. Newly-signed inside linebacker Demario Davis is a competent albeit unremarkable player, outside linebacker Paul Kruger has been a massive bust since he signed with the team ahead of the team in 2013 and 2-time Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden has fallen from grace with back-to-back terrible, injury-plagued seasons. Their odds of being successful this season are very slim, but it'll be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Ray Horton will be able to discover any building blocks for the future among this raw group.

Bottom Line:
The Browns are in the middle of a major rebuild on both sides of the ball, which means they're on track for another miserable season in 2016.
 

Pittsburgh Steelers

2015 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC North)

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (9th season)

Notable Additions: TE Ladarius Green, DE Ricardo Matthews, T Ryan Harris

Notable Departures: T Kelvin Beachum, TE Heath Miller (retired), DT Steve McClendon

Offense:
The Steelers offense can't seem to catch a break heading into 2016. Martavis Bryant got suspended for the entire season back in March after failing his 3rd drug test, star running back Le'Veon Bell got suspended for 3 games for skipping multiple random drug tests and to top it all off, projected starting tight end Ladarius Green, who was signed in free agency to replace the recently-retired Heath Miller, is reportedly dealing with chronic, concussion-related headaches which may force him to retire at the age of 26.

Even with the wave of notable absences for at least a portion of 2016, the Steelers should still have one of the most potent offenses in the league this season. They have the depth at receiver (Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, Darrius Heyward-Bey) to make up for Bryant's absence and DeAngelo Williams appears to have enough left in the tank to weather the storm while Bell is forced to sit on his couch for the first 3 games of the season. More importantly, the Steelers still have one of the league's best quarterback/receiver tandem in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown at their disposal, which allows them to be a threat regardless of who else is on the field with them. If the Steelers big 3 (Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown) can stay healthy and at least provide their normal contributions, this offense will continue to be a nightmare for opposing defenses to try and contain.     

Defense:
There are few things in the NFL that change less than the Steelers defense on a year-to-year basis. The usual suspects save for nose tackle Steve McClendon and cornerback Cortez Allen are all back for another season. The defensive front led by borderline elite defensive end Cameron Heyward and grizzled 10-year veteran inside inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons continues to set the tone for the whole defense. The efforts of their front led to a stout rush defense that finished 4th in the league and an excellent pass-rush that generated 48 sacks, which ranked 3rd behind the Patriots and the Super Bowl-champion Broncos, last season. If the young guns (inside linebacker Ryan Shazier, defensive end Stephon Tuitt,outside linebacker Bud Dupree) can build upon the promise they showed in 2015, the Steelers quest to return to their former defensive glory could be fast tracked.

The downside to the lack of change is that the Steelers secondary, which ranked 30th in the league last year, is still riddled with holes. Rookie Artie Burns is more than likely too raw to make a notable contribution right away and the projected starters save for last season's extremely pleasant surprise Ross Cockrell are all below average at best. At least they can relish in the fact that the frequently torched Antwon Blake decided to take his ghost coverage talents to the Titans this offseason.

Bottom Line:
With a relatively easy schedule and an almost unrivaled level of continuity, the Steelers could be primed for a deep playoff run if all of their key players can stay healthy and out of trouble.
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Projected Standings:

1.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

2.Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

3.Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

4.Cleveland Browns (4-12) 

2016 NFL Preview: AFC East

Buffalo Bills

2016 Record: 8-8 (3rd in AFC East)

Head Coach: Rex Ryan (2nd season)

Notable Additions: ILB Zach Brown, RB Reggie Bush, S Robert Blanton

Notable Departures: DE Mario Williams, WR Percy Harvin (retired), OLB Nigel Bradham

Offense:
In a bizarre plot twist, the Bills offense ended up being the team's strength in widely-renowned  defensive guru's Rex Ryan's 1st season with the team. The Bills finished 2015 ranked 12th in points per game, 13th in total offense and 1st in rushing offense, despite having their 3 best players (quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Sammy Watkins) all miss multiple games with injury.

 Whether or not the Bills offense can continue to grow in 2016 lies squarely on the shoulders of Taylor. The 27-year old quarterback, who spent his first 4 seasons in the NFL with the Baltimore Ravens as a backup for Joe Flacco, surprised a lot of people in the pro football community with his efficiency (5 INT, 63.7 CMP%), poise under pressure and deadly accurate deep ball in his 1st year as a starter. The team clearly has confidence in Taylor as evidenced by the contract extension they gave last Friday and based on what he showed last season, I firmly believe he has all of the physical and mental tools to be a legitimate franchise quarterback in the NFL. If Taylor can clean up his issues with holding onto the ball for too long and express more confidence in his abilities to use his top-notch speed to escape the pocket when a play breaks down , he should be able to take his game to the next level in 2016.

Any chance Taylor has of progressing this season could potentially end up being derailed by the murkiness surrounding the durability and possible production levels of the offense's other top contributors. McCoy didn't have the impact the organization wanted or expected him to have after acquiring him in a trade with the Eagles before the start of free agency last season. The 4-time Pro Bowl running back sustained numerous minor-to-mild injuries last season (strained hamstring, sprained MCL) and his constantly dinged-up status led to a relatively underwhelming season (1,187 scrimmage yards, 5 TD). Given his age (28) and history of lingering, soft-tissue injuries, it's completely reasonable to think McCoy's play will further decline in 2016. Luckily for the Bills, they have a good enough offensive line and the depth at the position (Karlos Williams, Reggie Bush, Mike Gillislee) to still have a productive running game if McCoy goes down or straight-up flounders this season.

The wide receiver situation is much more concerning. Watkins has looked like every bit of the top wideout he was pegged to be when he came out of Clemson in his NFL career thus far, but he's been constantly banged-up throughout his first 2 years in the league and is just 4 months removed from surgery to repair a broken foot he suffered in the offseason.

If Watkins goes down, the Bills don't appear to have anyone that will be able to make up for his absence. Robert Woods isn't dynamic or reliable enough to be anything more than a 3rd-receving option, rookie Kolby Listenable is a complete mystery at this point in time and the rest of the guys they have (Greg Salas, Greg Little, Leonard Hankerson) are among the biggest laughing stocks in the league at the position. The Bills better pray for Watkins's health because simply can't afford to lose for a sustained period of time this season.

Defense:
After three years of being considered one of the league's premier units, the Bills defense massively regressed in 2015. Outside of a select few players (defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, defensive Jerry Hughes, cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby), the core of the Bills defense was mediocre and had a hard time adjusting to Ryan's scheme. As a result of their generally poor play, they plummeted down the defensive ranking list after their highly impressive 2014 campaign, going from 1st to finished 31st in the league in sacks, 3rd to 19th in pass defense and 11th to 16th in rush defense.

While the suddenly limp pass-rush and downgrade in secondary talent outside of their starting outside corners didn't help matters, their horrific linebacker play was the driving force behind their failure as a unit last season. Ryan's defense requires strong, two-way linebacker play to thrive and with the porous play of Preston Brown and the now-retired A.J, Tarpley, they just didn't have that in any capacity last season. If the Bills defense wants to return to the upper echelon of the league in 2016, they're going to have to fix those problems as soon as humanly possible.

Those bounceback efforts took a huge blow when 2nd-round pick and projected starting inside linebacker Reggie Ragland tore his ACL in a training camp on August 5th. With the very promising Ragland out of the picture, free-agent pickup Zach Brown and incumbent starter Preston Brown are now going to be left with the major responsibility of being the 2 guys that aid or derail this unit's comeback attempt. Zach Brown is a decent albeit completely unspectacular player who picked up a fair amount of starting experience (29 starts in 4 seasons) during his tenure with the Titans while Preston Brown is going to have work extremely hard to get back to the level of play he displayed during his rookie season after his disastrous 2015 campaign. It's far from an ideal combo to stick at such a pivotal position in the middle of a defense that's trying to return to form after a rough season, but Brown Squared (trademark pending) are capable of being a solid inside linebacking duo.


The one area where the Bills defense seems poised to improve is in their secondary. Gilmore is entering a contract year and is pretty much bound to play his ass off so he can get a Josh Norman/Richard Sherman-level deal while Darby is in a position to build off his excellent rookie season and prove that he can take over as the team's top corner if Gilmore leaves in free agency after this season. The safety position is a little bit shakier, but the return of solid veteran safety Aaron Williams after missing all but 2 games in 2015 with a neck injury and a year of starting experience for converted slot corner Corey Graham should sure things up after an up-and-down year for the position a year ago.

Bottom Line:
If their defense can return to form, offense can continue to make strides and Ryan can keep the team disciplined, the Bills should be able to improve on their 8-8 2015 campaign.

Miami Dolphins

2016 Record: 6-10 (4th in AFC East)

Head Coach: Adam Gase (1st season)

Notable Additions: DE Mario Williams, RB Arian Foster, CB Byron Maxwell

Notable Departures: DE Olivier Vernon, RB Lamar Miller, CB Brent Grimes

Offense:
After enjoying next-to-no success under the last offensive "guru" they hired (Joe Philbin) as a head coach, the Dolphins decided to bring in another one in former Broncos and Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Gase was the architect of the record-breaking 2013 Broncos offense and his track record of getting the most out of his quarterbacks is proven and very impressive. Gase clearly still has to prove if he has the management skills or proper temperament to be a successful head coach, but he's one of the sharpest offensive minds in the league right now and is easily the most promising head coaching hire the Dolphins have made since at least Dave Wansteadt.   

With the exception of having a projected starting unning back in Arian Foster that may or may not be dead and an offensive line that is arguably the worst in the league, Gase has inherited a pretty talented albeit somewhat inconsistent group that could blossom into one of the league's best offenses with the right coaching. Jarvis Landry is one of the best young wideouts in the league and his proficiency in the short passing game make him a perfect fit in Gase's scheme, 2nd-year wide receiver DeVante Parker came on strong late last year after being hampered with a foot injury for the first half of the season and despite breaking his pattern of year-to-year improvement with a mediocre 2015 season, Ryan Tannehill is a talented young quarterback with major upside that can light up an opposing defense any given week. It's going to very interesting to see if Gase can stabilize this unit and establish a level of consistency that alluded Philbin and his staff for the past 4 seasons.

Defense:
I don't know if it's because the football gods frown upon the people of Miami or they just hate how the undefeated 1972 team conducted themselves after they made history, but The Dolphins front office seems to have some kind of unprecedented hex on it. The team's last 3 general managers (Randy Muller, Jeff Ireland, Dennis Hickey) have been responsible for some of the worst big money free agent signings (safety Gibril Wilson, wide receiver Mike Wallace, inside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe) and horrible draft choices (Ted Ginn Jr., Dion Jordan, Pat White) of the past decade. The roster moves made by their recent general managers have been backbreaking and are the main reason the team hasn't been to the playoffs since they took out the Tom Brady-less Patriots for the AFC East crown in 2008.

History repeated itself as the Dolphins tapped their longtime college scouting director Chris Grier to replace Hickey as their general manager. Promoting a man who has played an integral part in the continued failure of your franchise pretty much confirms that Stephen Ross is one of the dumbest owners in the league.

Grier didn't waste anytime royally fucking things up by making a series of head-scratching decisions that basically destroyed the Dolphins defense. He kicked things off before free agency even officially started by acquiring the huge contract of cornerback Byron Maxwell, who spent last season being prominently featured in the highlight tapes of all of the WR's who burned his ass and oft-injured inside linebacker Kiko Alonso from the Eagles. To make the deal even sweeter, the 1st-draft picks they exchanged (the Dolphins received the 13th overall pick and the Eagles received the 8th pick, which they eventually used as part of the deal with the Browns to move up and select quarterback Carson Wentz 2nd overall) in the deal ended up being used to select tackle and gas-mask enthusiast Laremy Tunsil. I'm not a gambling man, but I'd be willing to wager that the history books will show that Eagles general manager Howie Roseman committed one of the greatest salary-dump trades of all-time.

The fun continued when Grier suddenly took the transition tag off of 26-year old defensive end Olivier Vernon to sign 32-year old Mario Williams, who is coming off of the worst season of his career with the Bills and puts another toxic presence into one of the most unstable locker rooms in the league.

To recap, the Dolphins cut ties with the aging, but still productive Brent Grimes so they could get a guy who spent all of 2015 getting crushed by number one wideouts in Philly to be their new top corner and replaced the heir to Cameron Wake's pass-rushing throne for a hothead that's 2 or 3 years away from retiring. Most competent fantasy football players could concoct a better rebuilding plan than Grier did this offseason. I honestly feel bad for guys like Reshad Jones and Ndamukong Suh- who are among the best players in the league at their respective positions- because despite their best efforts, the front office's inability to bring in enough quality talent to fill out a defense basically renders their contributions useless.


Bottom Line: 
Poor personnel decisions and massive gaps at several key positions on both sides of the ball  have put the Dolphins in the same clusterfuck they find themselves in every year. 

New England Patriots

2016 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC East)

Head Coach: Bill Belichick (17th season)

Notable Additions: TE Martellus Bennett, DT Terrence Knighton, DE Chris Long

Notable Departures: DE Chandler Jones, WR Brandon LaFell, DT Dominique Easley

Offense:
The nearly 2-year power struggle between the NFL and Tom Brady over the Deflatgate "scandal" has finally (?) come to a close as Brady has agreed to stop his appeal process and accept the 4-game suspension that was handed down by the league in May 2015. With Brady's suspension now official, all eyes turn to 3rd-year quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to start the season. Garoppolo hasn't been particularly impressive is in his limited amount of regular season snaps, but he has the advantage of facing a soft 4-game schedule with 3 home games against teams (The Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills) that are far less talented than the Patriots and having a veteran team that should be even hungrier than usual to win out of the gate. I'd be legitimately shocked if they were any worse than 2-2 when Brady returns to the fold for their Week 5 contest against the Cleveland Browns.


Aside from Brady's suspension and the addition of a potential weapon in former Bears tight end Martellus Bennett to the fold, it'll be pretty much be business as usual for the Patriots offense this season. It's honestly boring to talk about the Patriots offense because it's pretty much a given that they're going to put up a shitload of points and display the same strengths (short passing, redzone efficiency, Rob Gronkowski ruining the lives of defenses on a weekly basis) and weaknesses (running the ball, wide receiver depth, Julian Edelman's douchey social media presence) that they do every single year. Having a predictable, one-dimensional offense doesn't usually pay in the NFL, but the Patriots have been able cement their legacy as the dominant franchise of the 2000's and 2010's because of it and barring an unforeseen meltdown, it should continue to work for them in 2016.

The only serious cause for concern this group has is their offensive line. Anyone that watched this team last season knows that their offensive line was one of the worst in the league and got absolutely destroyed by any defense with a decent amount of firepower upfront (I'm still blown away by just how badly the Broncos manhandled them in the AFC Championship Game). The return of longtime offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia after a 2-year retirement is being viewed as a cure for all of their woes upfront by the fans and local media, but as great of a coach he is, fixing this trainwreck of an offensive line ahead of this season is the tallest order he's ever faced in his 4+ decade coaching career.

Tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer have rapidly regressed over the past few seasons and the interior line is a logjam full of raw, young players that have struggled to adjust to the NFL that only managed to get more even more crowded in the offseason with the additions of 2013 1st round pick/monumental draft bust Jonathan Cooper and rookie Joe Thuney to the fold. There's not a starter locked down at any of the inside 3 positions at this point in time, but whatever combo of Cooper, Thuney, Shaq Mason, Tre' Jackson, Josh Kline, Bryan Stork and David Andrews they end up with going is unlikely establish the level of continuity and competence the team and fansbase is striving for. If this offensive line can't improve from their horrendous showing last season, the Patriots heavily-hyped Deflategate "revenge tour"/"Drive for 5" will fall short for a 2nd straight season.  

Defense:
The Patriots front seven suffered a huge and unexpected loss when Belichick decided to trade Chandler Jones to the Cardinals this offseason. Jones's departure was pretty much inevitable after his widely publicized synthetic marijuana incident during last year's playoffs, but losing a player of his caliber a year before he was set to hit free agency is hard to swallow.

With Jones gone, there's no one on this roster outside of the highly underrated Jabbal Sheard who is a serious threat to get to the quarterback on a regular basis off the edge. Age has drained Rob Ninkovich of the burst he once possessed, Free-agent pickup Chris Long's production has nosedived in the past few seasons due to injuries and age, and 2nd-year player Trey Flowers-who looked excellent in the team's preseason opener last Thursday against the Saints-has never played a snap in the regular season. The Patriots certainly have a big enough rotation to keep defenses on their toes, but I don't think they'll come anywhere near the impressive 49 sack (2rd highest in the league) mark they put up in 2015 without Jones in the fold.

The speculation of who's going to step up and attempt to fill the huge void left by Jones in the pass-rushing department has garnered most of the defensive headlines for the Patriots, but I don't believe that this is the area they should be most worried about. For the second consecutive season, the biggest question marks on the Patriots defense lie within the secondary, particularly with the play of starting corners Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan. Butler and Ryan both greatly exceeded expectations with their impressive play in 2015, but they have yet to prove they can handle being long-term starters in this league. Corners in the Belichick-era have a terrible track record of performing well in back-to-back seasons and despite their level of productivity on the whole, there were times last seasons where they both got absolutely ruined. This is a make-or-break season for both of the Patriots starting corners and their success or failure could go a long way in dictating the quality of this defense in 2016.

The glue that should ultimately hold this talented yet unsettled defense together is their frightening linebacker combo of Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower. As great as safety Devin McCourty has been throughout his 6 years with the team, Collins and Hightower are the most impactful and dynamic players the Patriots have on the defensive side of the ball. Their freakish athleticism and two-way abilities sets the tone for the entire defense and without them, the entire unit becomes pretty pedestrian (as evidenced by the problems that arose when they were both sidelined with injury late last season). Collins and Hightower are both fully healthy again for the first time since late October last yaear and heading into the final year of their rookie contracts, so I wouldn't be surprised if both of them put up their best numbers to-date. 

Bottom Line:
Barring a sudden regression from Brady or a major injury to Gronkowski, the Patriots should cruise to another AFC East title and once again be in the thick of the AFC title hunt.

New York Jets

2016 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC East)

Head Coach: Todd Bowles (2nd season)

Notable Additions: RB Matt Forte, T Ryan Clady, DE Jarvis Jenkins

Notable Departures: DT Damon Harrison, RB Chris Ivory, T D'Brickashaw Ferguson (retired)

Offense:
After nearly 5 months of living in fear of the prospect of having Geno Smith under center for the 2016 season, Jets Nation took a collective sigh of relief when Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signed with the team on July 27th. I'm surprised crazed Jets fans didn't try to kiss him or stroke his beard when he first took the field at training camp.


This is a sentence that I never thought I would write after watching get ousted from the Titans and Texans in consecutive seasons, but the Jets NEEDED Fitzpatrick to come back if they wanted any chance of being successful in 2016. With an aging corps driven by wide receiver Brandon Marshall (turned 32 in March) and newly-acquired running back Matt Forte (turns 31 in December), the Jets are in win-now mode and Fitzpatrick was the only quarterback available on the open market or in the draft this offseason that was capable of bringing them to the playoffs in 2016. I think it's a longshot that he matches or tops the numbers he put up during his career-best 2015 campaign, but the plethora of weapons he has surrounding him paired with excellent understanding of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's system gives him a great shot of having another productive season this year.

The Jets were mostly able to keep the band back together for another run at a playoff, but the retirement of D'Brickashaw Ferguson could prove to be a significant blow to this entire unit. While there's no denying that Ferguson's play had slipped a bit over the past few seasons, he was the type reliable and durable (he didn't miss a single game in his 10-year career) presence at left tackle that every team strives to have on their roster. Ironically, the Jets traded for ex-Broncos tackle Ryan Clady, who has missed 2 of the last 3 seasons with a Lisfranc injury and a torn ACL, to replace him as Fitzpatrick's blind-side protector. Clady is one of the best left tackles to enter the league in the past decade, but his recent injuries have broken him down to the point where he's a shell of his former self and it's far from a guarantee that he won't go down with yet another serious injury this season. The lack of a stable presence at left tackle could send a ripple effect through the entire offensive line and send a unit that was already below-average tailspinning into a spot alongside their divisionmates in Miami and New England at the bottom of the NFL offensive line hierarchy.    

Defense:
The Jets were put in the rough spot of being a cash-strapped team with 2 key pieces of their top-notch defensive front (defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson and defensive tackle Damon "Snacks" Harrison) hitting free agency in the same year. The Jets chose to pay Wilkerson over Harrison -who ironically signed with the Giants-giving him a hefty 5 year/$86 million with $53.5 mil in guaranteed money. Losing a dominant run-stuffer like Harrison certainly hurts, but ex-Steelers nose tackle Steve McClendon and 2nd-year standout Leonard Williams should be able to fill the void the departure of Snacks left in the middle of the line and finding someone with his skill set is not as difficult as finding a player with Wilkerson's versatility and strength on the edge of the defense. The combination of Wilkerson, Williams, McClendon and Sheldon Richardson should be more than enough to allow the Jets front to continue to perform at a high level in 2016.

Where the defensive front appears to be set to repeat the success they had in 2015, the Jets secondary could be line for a huge drop-off. This unit was easily the weak spot of the Jets impressive defense, finishing a respectable albeit not spectacular 13th in the league. If the all of the potential issues within their unit materialize, they'll be lucky to finish in the middle of the league again. Darrelle Revis started to show signs of his decline at the very end of last season and the wrist surgery he got in the offseason only reaffirms the notion the end may be near for the future Hall-of-Fame cornerback while the release of the admittedly over-the hill Antonio Cromartie forces the wildly inconsistent Buster Skrine into a starting, outside corner spot and grand-scale 2013 draft bust Dee Milliner into the slot corner spot (barring he doesn't suffer a injury) previously occupied by Skrine. On paper, this corner group seems like a fucking nightmare scenario for a team that's trying to get back to the playoffs.

Their safety situation isn't nearly as bleak with Marcus Gilchrist coming off of a breakout, borederline Pro Bowl season and Calvin Pryor making huge strides in his sophomore season after being switched back to his natural position of strong safety following a disastrous experiment at free safety in his rookie year, but regardless of how well they play in 2016, I don't see a situation where they could gloss over the potential issues in the rest of the secondary. If Revis can continue to play at the level we've grown accustomed throughout his illustrious career, they'll be fine. If he doesn't, this secondary is a prime candidate to be one of the most vulnerable in the league.

Bottom Line:

The Jets are a near-mirror image of the team they were a year ago and I believe the 2016 season will result in the same heartbreaking, narrow miss of a wild card spot.

Projected Standings:
1.New England Patriots (11-5)
2.New York Jets (9-7)
3.Buffalo Bills (9-7)
4.Miami Dolphins (5-11)

2016 NFL Preview: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons:

2015 Record: 8-8 (2nd in NFC South)

Head Coach: Dan Quinn (2nd season)

Notable Additions: C Alex Mack, WR Mohamed Sanu, DE Derrick Shelby

Notable Departures: WR Roddy White, DT Paul Soliai, ILB Nate Stupar
Offense:
Falcons nation were quick to put all of the blame on Matt Ryan for their failures last season. Sure Ryan didn't play great for most of the season and after a solid couple years of denial, I now fully agree with the sentiment that he's one of the league's most overrated quarterbacks, but if you take out superstar wideout Julio Jones, the receiving options he had were just pitiful. Leonard Hankerson made a few nice plays, but was mostly his usual below average self, rookie Justin Hardy was gobsmacked by the responsibilities and complexities of playing wide receiver in the NFL after running around aimlessly during his time at East Carolina, and I am fairly confident that Roddy White died around week 5 and Kyle Shanahan just wheeled his taxidermied corpse onto the field for the rest of the season.

The Falcons solution to their lack of reliable secondary receiving options problem was signing Mohamed Sanu in free agency. Sanu was decent during his time with the Bengals as a situational  receiver, but I don't think that he's consistent or polished enough to be counted on as a number 2 wideout in this league. Aside from Sanu and rookie tight end Austin Hooper, this is basically the same group of clowns (minus White, who was given a proper burial after the 2015 season concluded) that took the field in 2015. Hardy is still raw as hell and is going to need at least another to get used to the complexity of an NFL offense, Eric Weems is a fucking kick returner and journeyman Aldrick Robinson-the only other new veteran addition to this group-hasn't played a snap in a meaningful game since 2014 and has a whopping 30 career catches in 5 seasons. Ryan is a competent starter and Jones is pretty much a lock to have another excellent season if he stays healthy, but I'd be surprised if anyone in this ragtag group suddenly emerges as a legit number 2 wideout and allows this offense to recreate the potent aerial attack they displayed in 2011 and 2012.

The player that's going to truly determine the success of the Falcons offense in 2016 is running back Devonta Freeman. Freeman was unreal for the first half of last season (1,055 all-purpose YDS, 10 TD in the first 8 games of the year), and played in an integral part in the Falcons surprising 5-0 start. On the flip side, his merely average performance in the second half of the season (584 all-purpose YDS, 4 TD) played an equally important in the team's epic collapse (they lost 7 of their last 9 games) following their explosive start. 2016 should determine whether Freeman is truly one of the league's top young backs or his early-season dominance in 2015 was merely a fluke. The addition of top-notch veteran center and run-blocking machine Alex Mack to a promising young offensive line should aid Freeman's quest for redemption, but his ability to shed tacklers and explode through rushing lanes should ultimately be what determines his fate.

Defense:
The influence of Dan Quinn,who was one of the architects of the elite Seattle Seahawks defense, wasn't quite as strong as many had hoped it would be last season. Aside from a second straight season with a league-low sack total (a paltry 19 on the year), it wasn't the disaster the Mike Smith-led unit was in 2014, but the Falcons were one of the most middling defenses in the league finishing 16th in takeways (23), 14th in points allowed (21.6 per game) and 16th in total defense (347.6 YDS per game).

Unfortunately for Falcons fans, none of the moves they made in the offseason inspires much hope that they'll leave the realm of average in 2016. Free-agent pickups Derrick Shelby and Dwight Freeney are talented situational players that should help boost their low sack total, but they more than likely won't have a major impact on the quality of the defense on the whole.

Shelby and Freeney might not be the earth-shattering talents needed to take this defense to the next level, but they are at least proven, talented role players. Their top two picks in the 2016 draft were two of the biggest dice-rolls of the entire draft. Hard-hitting, box safety Keanu Neal and speedy outside linebacker Deion Jones are solid fits for Quinn's system, but their talent level and how well their respective games are going translate to the pro's are questionable at best. There's always a chance that both of these players could deify odds and make me look stupid by turning into great NFL players, but I firmly believe that Neal and Jones are the type of high-risk players that you just can't afford take when your in the middle of trying to get a long-suffering defense back on the path to relevancy.

The only player that could possibly make enough of an impact to offset all of the uncertainties and improve the Falcons defense is 2nd year outside linebacker Vic Beasley. Beasley showed some promise amidst all the rookie growing pains, picking up a team-high 4 sacks in 2015. If he can straighten out the flaws in his technique, he has the explosive first-step and freakish athleticism to be a straight-up monster edge-rusher in this league.
  
Bottom Line: 
With a mediocre defense and general lack of offensive weapons, the 2016 Falcons should be more in line with the team that floundered through the second half of 2015 than the one that overachieved out of the gate.

Carolina Panthers:

2015 Record: 15-1 (1st in NFC South)

Head Coach: Ron Rivera (6th season)

Notable Additions: DT Paul Soliai, P Mike Scifres, C Gino Gradkowski

Notable Departures: CB Josh Norman, DE Jared Allen (retired), S Roman Harper

Offense:
Cam Newton went from 2015's biggest NFL star to the league's biggest whipping boy after a poor performance on and off-the-field  in Super Bowl 50.  Newton's inability to knock off the Broncos and subsequently leaving his post-game press conference early out of rage made him the subject of about 62,000 hot take pieces that questioned his character, toughness and status as an elite quarterback in the two or three weeks immediately following the Super Bowl. Newton's career has been full of adversity and mass criticism, but bouncing back from this terrible performance in the biggest game of his career and yet another round of mass character assassination is easily the most daunting task he's faced in his 6-year career thus far. He finally made it to the biggest stage and didn't deliver- now he has to make sure that the blow to his confidence and feeling of letting himself and teammates down doesn't creep into this season. The pressure on Newton's shoulders is immense heading into 2016, but I fully believe that he has the talent and poise to overcome all of the obstacles that are currently in his way.


Bolstering Newton's odds of not a having a post-Super Bowl loss hangover is the return of a healthy Kelvin Benjamin to the fold after missing all of 2015 with a torn ACL. Benjamin's return to the field is the single greatest gift Newton and this offense could've possibly received going into this season. Benjamin had an excellent rookie campaign in 2014 (73 REC/1,008 YDS/9 TD)and immediately stepped into the top reciever role that was left vacant after the great Steve Smith Sr. was unjustly released after the 2013 season.  Benjamin will more than likely be a godsend after Newton and co. spent 2015 reluctantly relying on kick-returner Ted Ginn Jr. and his magnificent stone hands to be their number one wideout. With a true number one receiver in the fold to complement their reliably excellent tight end Greg Olsen, Newton has at least a solid chance of matching or exceeding his passing numbers from his MVP campaign a year ago.

The confidence that I have in Newton and Benjamin doesn't translate over to the rushing game. One of the keys to the Panthers success in 2015 was their establishment of an excellent rushing attack led by Jonathan Stewart, who remained healthy for most of the season and put up his best rushing total (989 yards) since his breakout campaign in 2009. While Stewart surprised the hell out of me and most other fans and analysts around the league, I don't trust him to replicate that level of success this season. Stewart just turned 29 (which is basically 65 in running back years) and given his absurd injury history, he's basically a ticking time bomb at this point in career.

In the event the Stewarts gets hurt or fails to perform (the former of which I believe is virtually a guarantee), the options behind him are scarce. Cameron Artis-Payne did next to nothing in the 3 starts he picked up filling in for Stewart last season and Fozzy Whitaker is nothing more than a warm body to have in case every other running back on the roster suddenly dies in the middle of a game. If the Panthers can't established a solid running game this season, their hopes of returning to the Super Bowl could be dead on arrival.  

Defense:
The unpredictability of general manager Dave Gettleman struck again when he suddenly took the franchise tag off of cornerback Josh Norman in mid-April and allowed him to leave the team in free agency. Gettleman's penchant for bold moves has benefited him in the past, but if Norman's departure ends up sinking the quality of their secondary and halts the defensive dominance they displayed last season, this could end up being the unexpected, brazen personnel decision that comes back to bite him in the ass. 

The biggest and most intriguing storyline heading into 2016 for this defense is whether or not their defensive front is good enough to make up for the loss of Norman. On paper, their front has more than enough talent to take the pressure off of their young, flawed secondary. Kawann Short has solidified himself as one of the league's most imposing, versatile defensive tackles over the past couple of year, Thomas Davis continues to deify logic by being one of the league's quickest and sure-tackling linebackers at age 33 and inside linebacker Luke Kuechly is one of the most reliable and consistently dominant players in the league right now. The only real question mark is at defensive end.  There's no telling if Kony Ealy will be able to keep up the high level play of he displayed in the second half of the last season and the loss of a proven every-down player in Jared Allen is going to sting in a defensive end group that is rounded out by situational pass-rushers (Mario Addison), over-the-hill veterans (Charles Johnson) and raw young players (Ryan Delaire). If this front 7 can make a corner group headlined by the wildly inconsistent Bene Benwikere and veteran burnout Robert McClain look good, then they deserve to be in the conversation for best defensive front in the league. 

Bottom Line: 
While it's unlikely that the Panthers will be able to recapture the magic of their 2015 season, they should still be able to win the NFC South without too much difficulty. 

New Orleans Saints:

2015 Record: 7-9 (3rd place in NFC South)

Head Coach: Sean Payton (10th season)

Notable Additions: TE Coby Fleener, S Roman Harper, DT Nick Fairley

Notable Departures: WR Marques Colston (retired), CB Brandon Browner, TE Benjamin Watson

Offense:
The Saints are without question one of the easiest offenses to predict in the NFL every single year. Drew Brees putting up video game numbers while slinging the ball 35-45 times a game to a barrage of different receivers and single-handily lead the team to almost all of their victories is basically an unofficial tradition at this point in time. At age 37, Brees isn't quite the unstoppable force of nature he was in his heyday, but he is still one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league (he thrown for over 4,500 yards in 6 straight season). With a talented young receiving combo of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead that is quietly and steadily turning into one of the most deadly tandems in the league at his disposal, Brees should be able to remain in the NFL's upper echelon of quarterback until his body gives out on him.  

The biggest change the Saints offense made ahead of the 2016 season was selecting Ohio State product Michael Thomas in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft to replace Marques Colston-who announced his retirement after 10 years in the league in March-to be their new possession receiver. Thomas has reportedly been spectacular throughout the team's offseason program and many reporters/league insiders think he's going to be prominently featured in their offense this season. With his standing as a being the number two or three receiver in one of the most consistently productive passing attacks in the NFL, it's completely feasible that Thomas could end up being the breakout star of this year's receiving class.

Buried under all of the excitement over Thomas, Cooks, Snead and the rest of the Saints passing attack heading into the season is the return of running back Mark Ingram. Despite the surprisingly solid play from Tim Hightower in his absence, his presence was sorely missed down the stretch after he was put on injured reserve with a shoulder injury on December 9th. While Hightower is of a similar build and possesses a nearly identical skill set, Ingram's vision and ability to punish tacklers at will makes him the better back.

Ingram's touches strangely went down a bit last season (226 in 13 games in 2014 opposed to 166 in 12 last season), but he still averaged 4.6 yards per carry and showed great improvement as a receiver, putting up a career-high 50 receptions on 60 targets. Ingram has brought a bit of balance to a Saints offense that long lacked it following his breakout campaign in 2014 and if he can stay healthy, he could be in line for his first career 1,000-yard season in 2016.


Defense:
The Saints defense was god awful once again in 2015, surrendering a league-high 29.8 points per game and allowing an NFL record of 45 passing touchdowns over 16 games. It didn't seem to matter how many points Brees and co. put up because their defense would almost always find a way to destroy any momentum they had built.


Severing ties with abysmal starting corner Brandon Browner and drafting promising defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins in the 1st round of this year's draft represents a step in the right direction, but it will unlikely be enough to turn around the play of this horrid defense. Their awful linebacking corps somehow got even worse with the addition of inside linebacker James Laurinaitis,who is only getting more incompetent by the minute, their cornerback group outside of promising slot corner Delvin Breaux is an unmitigated disaster and their pass-rush outside of star defensive end Cameron Jordan is like Rick Santorum's 2016 presidential campaign: sad and virtually non-existent. There are reasons to be optimistic about the potential growth of their young players (Stephone Anthony, Tyeler Davison) and Jordan can still cause serious disruption at the line of scrimmage without any outside help, but there's no getting around the fact that this is still one of the most talent-deprived defensive units in the league.

Bottom Line:

The Saints atrocious defense will more than likely prevent them from gaining traction in a talent-deep NFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2015 Record: 6-10 (4th place in NFC South)

Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (1st season)

Notable Additions: CB Brent Grimes, DE Robert Ayers, ILB Daryl Smith

Notable Departures: G Logan Mankins (retired), OLB Bruce Carter, CB Sterling Moore

Offense:
The Buccaneers made some waves this offseason by promoting offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach after (unjustly) firing Lovie Smith in early January after 2 seasons at the helm. While I have no idea if Koetter is going to be able to cut it as a head coach in the NFL, the Buccaneers were at the very least wise enough to not force starting quarterback Jameis Winston to learn a new offense for a 2nd straight year. Winston is a bright kid that could probably handle that tremendous challenge, but forcing a quarterback to learn another new offense this early in his career is cruel torture, regardless of how smart that player is.

With an offensive scheme and group of receivers he's familiar with in place, Winston is in a prime position to flourish in his sophomore NFL campaign. Winston's rookie season was filled with just about every type of adversity you could think of (injuries across the offense line and receiving corps, a horrific start to the season, a top receiver in Mike Evans who suddenly forgot how to catch a football) yet he still managed to throw for 4,042 YDS and 22 TD's. Recent history has seen a number of QB's who looked solid in their rookie years (Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles) make huge strides in their second season in the league and based on the level of polish and leadership he displayed last season with a decimated supporting cast, Winston appears to be set to join that bunch. His arm strength, throwing mechanics and ability to find holes in opposing defenses is among the best I've seen out of any young quarterback in recent memory and is exactly the type of skill set that's required to take the league by storm at this position. If Winston can fix his problems with accuracy and throwing under pressure and not revert back to his old ways off-the-field, he could very well end be the franchise quarterback this franchise has long sought after.

The play of running back Doug Martin is going to be equally integral for the play of this offense. Unlike Winston, the prospects of Martin stepping up and delivering the goods are a lot murkier.  Martin's excellent 2015 campaign (1,673 all-purpose YDS and 7 TD) pretty much came out of nowhere after a pair of underwhelming, injury-riddled seasons in 2013 and 2014. Martin had turned back time and finally delivered on the promise he showed during his electric rookie campaign in 2012. Martin was consistently great throughout 2015, but you have to wonder if his success was merely a product of a player busting his ass in a contract year or if he is actually going to be able to sustain his current status as one of the league's top backs for back-to-back seasons. The answer to that question will likely haunt Buccaneers fans through the midpoint of the season and play a crucial role in deciding their place in the NFL's constantly-shifting balance of power.

The Buccaneers biggest Achilles' heel from a year ago (offensive line) is still very much an issue headed into 2016. The return of a healthy Demar Dotson at right tackle after missing most of last season with a knee injury brings a much-needed veteran presence to this young group, but the retirement of Logan Mankins-who single-handedly made their makeshift offensive line somewhat functional last season- opens up a huge void in the interior of the line (free agent pickup J.R Sweezy more than likely isn't the answer) and the decision to keep human turnstile Donovan Smith at left tackle is just puzzling. If this o-line can't coalesce, the potential growth of Winston and repeat success of Martin (and of course, the fate of their season) could be in jeopardy.

Defense:
Smith was primarily let go due to his inability to put a quality defense on the field. While Smith's Cover 2-driven scheme doesn't fit the pass-happy nature of the present-day NFL, it was two years worth of terrible free-agent signings and drafting from general manager Jason Licht and in the case of last season, unexpected down years from established stars Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David that primarily destroyed their odds of putting a quality defense onto the field.

New defensive coordinator Mike Smith is entering a slightly rosier situation than Lovie and his defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier had during their two seasons in Tampa. McCoy and David are unlikely to have back-to-back disappointing seasons and more importantly, the free-agent signings (cornerback Brent Grimes, inside linebacker Daryl Smith, defensive end Robert Ayers) Licht made this year aren't the type of backbreaking bad high-money deals that screwed over Lovie's regime (Alterraun Verner, Michael Johnson, basically every other deal Licht signed in 2014). The veteran starters (save for Ayers) are clearly being viewed as short-term solutions and while none of them are the players they were two or three years ago, they should end up being at least competent, cost-effective starters for the next season or two.

The true x-factors that could make or break this defense for Smith and his position coaches are their top two picks from this year's draft: cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and defensive end Noah Spence. Hargreaves and Spence were two of my favorite players in this year's draft and I believe they're the type of players that can come in and make a major impact right away. Hargreaves is a bit undersized for an outside corner (5"10, 204 lbs), but his coverage skills are top-notch and Spence is a powerful edge-rusher with a relentless motor that could prove to be the steal of the draft if he lives up to his enormous potential. The rebuild of this defense will be fast-tracked if Hargreaves and Spence can come in and provide the Bucs with the top corner and edge-rusher combo they've lacked since the glory days of Ronde Barber and Simeon Rice in the early to mid 2000's.    
 
Bottom Line:
With Jameis Winston at the helm and some intriguing young defensive pieces, the Buccaneers are clearly trending upwards, but they have too many flaws on both sides of the ball to be taken seriously as a dark horse playoff contender this season. 

Projected Standings:
1.Carolina Panthers (11-5)
2.New Orleans Saints (8-8)
3.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
4.Atlanta Falcons (5-11)