Houston Texans
2015 Record: 9-7 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (3rd season)
Notable Additions: RB Lamar Miller, QB Brock Osweiler, G Jeff Allen
Notable Departures: G Brandon Brooks, RB Arian Foster, QB Brian Hoyer
Offense:
Brian Hoyer's historically bad performance (15/34, 136 YDS, 4 INT, 15.4 QBR) in the Texans 30-0 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Wild Card Weekend served as the wake-up call they needed to end the below average quarterback carousel they've had since Matt Schaub shit the bed during the 2013 season. The solution Texans came up with to end their long-standing quarterback woes was to bring in free-agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. Osweiler rose to prominence last year after going 5-2 as a starter for the Broncos filling in for the injured Peyton Manning before he was unceremoniously benched again in favor of Manning following a poor performance against the Chargers in the final week of the regular season. Despite his limited sample size and the possibility that the Broncos stellar defense was responsible for his success, the team clearly believes in him based on the hefty contract they gave him (4 years/$72 mil/$37 mil guaranteed) and their dedication to bolster the receiver depth behind rising star DeAndre Hopkins in this year's draft (they selected Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in the 1st and 3rd rounds respectively). I've been highly critical of the Osweiler signing all offseason, but if his preseason play is any indicator, he may be the reliable starting quarterback the Texans need to make it to next level.
The Texans also finally severed ties with their oft-injured, former star running back Arian Foster prior to the start of free agency. Foster was quickly replaced by former Dolphins starter Lamar Miller, the clear prize of 2016's free agent running back class. After suffering through a season with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, Jonathan Grimes and Kenny Hillard splitting carries for 12 of the 16 games on the schedule, Miller should be a godsend and is exactly the type of player that can return their rushing attack to its former glory. Miller showed flashes of dominance during his 4 years with the Dolphins, but he was never given carries (he eclipsed 200 carries in a season only once during his tenure there) to truly flourish. With a respectable offensive line in front of him and a coach in Bill O'Brien that places a high value on the running game, Miller has a shot of being the dominant feature back he was never got the chance to be in Miami.
Defense:
The Texans defense has consistently been one of the premier units in the league over the past 4 years. They have an excellent pass-rush, stiff red-zone defense (they've allowed less than 21 points per game in 2 of the last 3 seasons) and a solid nucleus of talent throughout the defense with cornerback Jonathan Joseph and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus being among the best players in the league at their respective positions. That being said, their standing as one of the best defenses in the league is largely attributed to the play of defensive end J.J. Watt. The man is a god damn wrecking ball and there's no defender in league right now that can top the level of disruption he causes as both a pass-rusher and run-stuffer every time he takes the field.
While Watt is still in the middle of his prime at age 27, there's reason to be concerned about the 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year's heading into 2016. Watt received sports hernia and back surgery this offseason and is rumored to be trying to play in the season opener against the Bears before he's fully healed. There's no doubting Watt's toughness and competitive nature, but that potential recklessness could put the long-term success of the entire organization in jeopardy. The relentless physicality he plays with is starting to break down his body and if he continues to play at this clip without taking the necessary time to heal from his ailments, regression is going to come and with that regression likely comes the demise of the Texans defense. The Texans livelihood for this season and the foreseeable future lies on Watt's shoulders and if he comes back too soon from injury and/or is held back by any of his ailments by when he returns to the field, the team's bid to become the perennial team to beat in the AFC South will likely come up short.
The Texans defense has consistently been one of the premier units in the league over the past 4 years. They have an excellent pass-rush, stiff red-zone defense (they've allowed less than 21 points per game in 2 of the last 3 seasons) and a solid nucleus of talent throughout the defense with cornerback Jonathan Joseph and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus being among the best players in the league at their respective positions. That being said, their standing as one of the best defenses in the league is largely attributed to the play of defensive end J.J. Watt. The man is a god damn wrecking ball and there's no defender in league right now that can top the level of disruption he causes as both a pass-rusher and run-stuffer every time he takes the field.
While Watt is still in the middle of his prime at age 27, there's reason to be concerned about the 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year's heading into 2016. Watt received sports hernia and back surgery this offseason and is rumored to be trying to play in the season opener against the Bears before he's fully healed. There's no doubting Watt's toughness and competitive nature, but that potential recklessness could put the long-term success of the entire organization in jeopardy. The relentless physicality he plays with is starting to break down his body and if he continues to play at this clip without taking the necessary time to heal from his ailments, regression is going to come and with that regression likely comes the demise of the Texans defense. The Texans livelihood for this season and the foreseeable future lies on Watt's shoulders and if he comes back too soon from injury and/or is held back by any of his ailments by when he returns to the field, the team's bid to become the perennial team to beat in the AFC South will likely come up short.
Bottom Line:
Even with the additions of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, the Texans are basically in the same place they were at the end of last season. Anything more than another Wild Round exit would be a huge surprise.
Indianapolis Colts
2015 Record: 8-8 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (5th season)
Notable Additions: CB Patrick Robinson, CB Antonio Cromartie, QB Scott Tolzien
Notable Departures: WR Andre Johnson, ILB Jerrell Freeman, TE Coby Fleener
Offense:
Despite his underwhelming, injury-plagued 2015 in which he only played 7 games, the Colts made Andrew Luck the highest played in the league this offseason with an absurd 5-year/$122.9 mil extension ($87 mil guaranteed). With all of the money they just invested in him and Matt Hasselbeck-who was the main reason they were fortunate enough to go .500 last year-finally hanging it up after 18 years in the league, the Colts better hope Luck stays healthy this season because Scott Tolzien (aka Aaron Rodgers's former clipboard holder) and Stephen Morris,who I didn't even known was a person until I was doing research for this piece, more than likely aren't going to be able keep the team afloat in his absence.
Barring a string of nagging injuries like he suffered last season, the odds of Luck returning to form this season are strong. Luck's struggles in 2015 were due to playing injured from the jump (he was playing through an injured shoulder before he the kidney and abdominal injury KO'ed him for the season), not lack of skill or poise under pressure. Luck proved in his first 3 seasons in the league that he has all of the necessary intangibles (leadership, intelligence, ability to make any throw he's asked to in any game situation, etc.) to be a successful quarterback in the league and his receiving corps has actually managed to get better in his absence thanks to the emergence of Donte Moncrief as a reliable number 2 wideout alongside established top dog T.Y. Hilton, which puts him in an excellent position to post another 4,000+ yard, 30-TD season.
General manager Ryan Grigson also decided to do his part in helping Luck bounce back by finally investing in their broken offensive line by selecting Alabama center Ryan Kelly in the first round. Kelly has looked great in the preseason so far and if he can continue to act as a stabilizing presence in the middle of the line, Luck is unlikely to get shelled by opposing pass-rushes like he did in 2015. Luck will force some ill-advised passes into double/triple coverage and backbreaking picks from time to time, but I fully expect him to quiet the doubters and return to being one of the best young quarterbacks in football this season.
Defense:
The below-average Colts defense was already dealt a spectacular piece of news when it was announced that top cornerback Vontae Davis had been ruled out for at least the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain that has left ligament damage. With Davis out of the equation, the Colts are now forced to choose from a motley crew of corners to replace one of the few players on this unit that isn't a liability week-in and week-out. Darius Butler is flat-out awful, Patrick Robinson is a solid slot corner with questionable abilities on the outside, D'Joun Smith is a 2nd-year player trying to make up for lost time after missing almost all of his rookie season with an undisclosed knee injury and the way over-the-hill Antonio Cromartie is only here so he can continue to pay his dozens of active child support payments. The Colts better pray for a speedy recovery from Davis because this corner group appears to be destined for epic failure.
Aside from Davis's injury and the loss of excellent inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman to the Bears in free agency, it's business as usual for the Colts defense. The trademark Colts combo of rapidly aging guys clinging onto starting jobs (inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, safety Mike Adams, outside linebacker Robert Mathis) and young players that are pretty much DOA (safety Winston Guy, outside linebacker Erik Walden, defensive end Zach Kerr) with a couple of intriguing starters thrown in to inspire some (likely false) hope for the future (defensive end Henry Anderson, inside linebacker Sio Moore) is somehow still alive and well. The Colts defense is competent enough to avoid being in the bottom 5 of the league in at least most of the meaningful categories yet still bad enough to lose them games when it counts. Defense is what ultimately cost Peyton Manning the chance of bringing multiple championships and it will likely be what ruins Luck's tenure with the team as well.
The below-average Colts defense was already dealt a spectacular piece of news when it was announced that top cornerback Vontae Davis had been ruled out for at least the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain that has left ligament damage. With Davis out of the equation, the Colts are now forced to choose from a motley crew of corners to replace one of the few players on this unit that isn't a liability week-in and week-out. Darius Butler is flat-out awful, Patrick Robinson is a solid slot corner with questionable abilities on the outside, D'Joun Smith is a 2nd-year player trying to make up for lost time after missing almost all of his rookie season with an undisclosed knee injury and the way over-the-hill Antonio Cromartie is only here so he can continue to pay his dozens of active child support payments. The Colts better pray for a speedy recovery from Davis because this corner group appears to be destined for epic failure.
Aside from Davis's injury and the loss of excellent inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman to the Bears in free agency, it's business as usual for the Colts defense. The trademark Colts combo of rapidly aging guys clinging onto starting jobs (inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, safety Mike Adams, outside linebacker Robert Mathis) and young players that are pretty much DOA (safety Winston Guy, outside linebacker Erik Walden, defensive end Zach Kerr) with a couple of intriguing starters thrown in to inspire some (likely false) hope for the future (defensive end Henry Anderson, inside linebacker Sio Moore) is somehow still alive and well. The Colts defense is competent enough to avoid being in the bottom 5 of the league in at least most of the meaningful categories yet still bad enough to lose them games when it counts. Defense is what ultimately cost Peyton Manning the chance of bringing multiple championships and it will likely be what ruins Luck's tenure with the team as well.
Bottom Line:
As long as Andrew Luck is healthy and producing at the level he was prior to last season, the Colts will be the team to beat in the AFC South and have an outside chance of winning the conference.
As long as Andrew Luck is healthy and producing at the level he was prior to last season, the Colts will be the team to beat in the AFC South and have an outside chance of winning the conference.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 Record: 5-11 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4th season)
Notable Additions: DE Malik Jackson, RB Chris Ivory, S Tashaun Gibson
Notable Departures: G Zane Beadles, C Stefen Wisnewski, P Bryan Anger
Offense:
The silver lining of another miserable season for the Jaguars in 2015 was the emergence of their young offensive corps. Blake Bortles flashed plenty of franchise quarterback potential, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns made a serious case for being the receiver tandem in football, and running back T.J. Yeldon was a productive two-way back despite getting relatively limited touches.
While garbage time-forced passing situations undeniably inflated Bortles and the Allen's numbers a bit, I expect this offense to be at least as good as they were last year. Bortles, Robinson and Hurns are all entering their 3rd seasons in the league, which means they are just now starting to unlock their true potential after spending the past 2 seasons getting used to the nuances of playing football at the professional level and developing a strong rapport with one another. Having a young QB/WR group adjust to the speed of the NFL and grow as players together is excellent for the development of all parties involved and if the play of other young tandems including Andy Dalton/A.J. Green and Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton are any indicators, the Jaguars aerial reign of terror is just getting started.
The only thing that I believe could derail the continued growth of this offense is their offensive line. The collective failure of the big men upfront has caused Bortles to get outright assaulted (he's been sacked 106 times in his first 2 seasons) and made their run game largely ineffective (they've finished 27th, 21st and 31st in the league over the past 3 seasons). They did re-shuffle the deck a bit heading into 2016 by bringing in former Steeler Kelvin Beachum to play left tackle and shifting 2013 draft bust Luke Jockel inside to guard and guard Brandon Linder to center, but there's currently no indication as to whether or not these moves are going to be enough to prevent this o-line from being one of the worst in the league yet again this season. With an offense that is driven by a potent, mid-to-deep ball passing attack and just invested in veteran Chris Ivory to bolster their depth and potentially stop their recent woes at running back, the Jaguars offensive line is going to need to step up so this offense can take their next substantial step forward.
While garbage time-forced passing situations undeniably inflated Bortles and the Allen's numbers a bit, I expect this offense to be at least as good as they were last year. Bortles, Robinson and Hurns are all entering their 3rd seasons in the league, which means they are just now starting to unlock their true potential after spending the past 2 seasons getting used to the nuances of playing football at the professional level and developing a strong rapport with one another. Having a young QB/WR group adjust to the speed of the NFL and grow as players together is excellent for the development of all parties involved and if the play of other young tandems including Andy Dalton/A.J. Green and Andrew Luck/T.Y. Hilton are any indicators, the Jaguars aerial reign of terror is just getting started.
The only thing that I believe could derail the continued growth of this offense is their offensive line. The collective failure of the big men upfront has caused Bortles to get outright assaulted (he's been sacked 106 times in his first 2 seasons) and made their run game largely ineffective (they've finished 27th, 21st and 31st in the league over the past 3 seasons). They did re-shuffle the deck a bit heading into 2016 by bringing in former Steeler Kelvin Beachum to play left tackle and shifting 2013 draft bust Luke Jockel inside to guard and guard Brandon Linder to center, but there's currently no indication as to whether or not these moves are going to be enough to prevent this o-line from being one of the worst in the league yet again this season. With an offense that is driven by a potent, mid-to-deep ball passing attack and just invested in veteran Chris Ivory to bolster their depth and potentially stop their recent woes at running back, the Jaguars offensive line is going to need to step up so this offense can take their next substantial step forward.
Defense:
Despite having a head coach in Gus Bradley that played an integral part in building the Seahawks currently dominant defense, the Jaguars defense has not made significant improvements since he arrived in 2013, allowing an average of 375 yards and 27.3 points per game in his 3 years with the team (only the Bears have allowed more points over this time frame). The Jaguars front office finally decided that they needed to take swift action to try and improve their defense, so they took advantage of their loads of cap space (estimated at $80 million prior to the start of this year's free agency period) by inking defensive end/tackle Malik Jackson, safety Tashuan Gibson and cornerback Prince Amukamara to deals in free agency. Every single one of these signings, save for Amukamara was brought in on a 1-year "prove it-deal", is a high-risk move that could be destined for a "Worst Free Agent Signings in NFL history" list if they don't work out, but they're the type of chances you need to take when you have a defense that desperately needs to improve and the available cap space to make splashy signings that could have a massive impact on the quality of this defense.
While their free-agent signings grabbed more headlines and have more pressure on them to succeed, it's the young players that have the greatest potential to turn the tide on this defense. The Jaguars have 3 high-profile player players in rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey and inside linebacker Myles Jack, and 2nd-year defensive end Dante Fowler Jr, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, currently slated to be in the starting lineup. It's clearly impossible to know right now if they're going to deliver at the professional level, but it's hard to not be intrigued by a trio of the most lauded and intriguing talents of the past 2 NFL drafts lining up on the same defense. Young players have completely changed the trajectory of the Jaguars offense and if Ramsey, Jack and Fowler Jr. end up delivering on their immense promise, they could have a similar game-changing effect on the defense.
Despite having a head coach in Gus Bradley that played an integral part in building the Seahawks currently dominant defense, the Jaguars defense has not made significant improvements since he arrived in 2013, allowing an average of 375 yards and 27.3 points per game in his 3 years with the team (only the Bears have allowed more points over this time frame). The Jaguars front office finally decided that they needed to take swift action to try and improve their defense, so they took advantage of their loads of cap space (estimated at $80 million prior to the start of this year's free agency period) by inking defensive end/tackle Malik Jackson, safety Tashuan Gibson and cornerback Prince Amukamara to deals in free agency. Every single one of these signings, save for Amukamara was brought in on a 1-year "prove it-deal", is a high-risk move that could be destined for a "Worst Free Agent Signings in NFL history" list if they don't work out, but they're the type of chances you need to take when you have a defense that desperately needs to improve and the available cap space to make splashy signings that could have a massive impact on the quality of this defense.
While their free-agent signings grabbed more headlines and have more pressure on them to succeed, it's the young players that have the greatest potential to turn the tide on this defense. The Jaguars have 3 high-profile player players in rookie cornerback Jalen Ramsey and inside linebacker Myles Jack, and 2nd-year defensive end Dante Fowler Jr, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, currently slated to be in the starting lineup. It's clearly impossible to know right now if they're going to deliver at the professional level, but it's hard to not be intrigued by a trio of the most lauded and intriguing talents of the past 2 NFL drafts lining up on the same defense. Young players have completely changed the trajectory of the Jaguars offense and if Ramsey, Jack and Fowler Jr. end up delivering on their immense promise, they could have a similar game-changing effect on the defense.
Bottom Line:
While their talented young offensive nucleus has put them in the best spot they've been in nearly a decade, they still have too many holes at key positions to make a playoff run in 2016.
Tennessee Titans
2015 Record: 3-13 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (1st season as full-time coach)
Notable Additions: RB DeMarco Murray, S Rashad Johnson, WR Rishard Matthews
Notable Departures: S Michael Griffin, QB Zach Mettenberger, CB Coty Sensabaugh
Offense:
The Titans had a head coaching vacancy to fill after firing Ken Wisenhunt 7 games into last season. With a lauded young quarterback in Marcus Mariota at the helm and a new general manager in Jon Robinson that spent 12 seasons working in the Patriots front office, the Titans appeared to be in a great position to attract and eventually land a very promising coach. Despite interviewing Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and former Bills head coach Doug Marrone for the job, the Titans ultimately chose to promote interim head coach Mike Mularkey, who went 2-7 in his 9 games running the show last season, to the full-time position. For those aren't familiar with the rich history of Mularkey's coaching career, he was previously the head coach of the Bills and Jaguars and during his 3 seasons (2 with the Bills, 1 with the Jaguars), he went a whopping 16-32. WHAT A PEDIGREE. Mularkey might have a sketchy track record as a head coach, but at least he's bringing his dynamic "exotic smash mouth" (which is already a contender for my all-time favorite piece of NFL jargon) offensive philosophy to Nashville. Questionable depth and general talent throughout the offense are irrelevant when you're playing Mularkey's brand of TOUGH and UNPREDICTABLE football. I understand wanting to keep continuity in place for a young quarterback trying to get acclimated to the league, but retaining a coach who has multiple failed head coaching stints on his resume solely not to shake things up is a baffling and potentially damaging decision by the Titans brass.
The team continued their outstanding offseason by acquiring the gigantic contract of running back DeMarco Murray from the Eagles. The Titans must be the only team in the league that doesn't know Murray's magical 1,845-yard, 13 TD 2014 campaign was a result of running behind an offensive line that opened up holes that you can fit a mack truck through on a weekly basis and him staying healthy for the only time in his career. Murray has been productive in the preseason, but I'm incredibly hesitant to buy in on this offensive line blocking competently and more importantly, him displaying urgency and burst when he runs for an entire season-especially with the looming threat of promising rookie running back Derrick Henry cutting into his playing time
Mariota is clearly the only person that is capable of helping this offense overcome its slew of issues and become a functional, productive group in 2016. I'm still not nearly as high on him as most people in league circles seem to be, but there was some signs that he could morph into a solid NFL quarterback buried underneath all of the lows he endured during his 3-9 rookie season (he missed 4 games with a sprained MCL). He's unusually accurate for a young quarterback (62.2 CMP% last season) and he wisely uses his rushing ability to evade pressure and turn broken passing plays into positive gains on the ground without relying on his legs to be his primary source of creating offense. If he can continue to get a better feel for running a sophisticated NFL offense and rookie wideout Tajae Sharpe can carry the momentum from his stellar training camp and preseason into the regular season and give the team a second receiving threat to put next to tight end Delanie Walker, he could be line for a massive uptick in his sophomore campaign and make me look like a big moron for labeling him a potential bust when he came out of Oregon last year.
Defense:
Newly-minted defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has inherited a group that is eerily similar to the Steelers unit he coached during his last season as their defensive general in 2014. There are a few unheralded talents (safety Da'Norris Searcy, outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard) and a bonafide superstar in defensive tackle Jurell Casey among the bunch, but it's a mostly average group that isn't likely to drum up much excitement or disdain. I expect plenty of trademark scowls from LeBeau, who turns 79 in September, on the sideline as he coaches this subpar bunch to a 14th or 15th overall ranking before he says "fuck it" and finally retires the minute the regular season ends.
Even with the coordinator change and 6 draft picks spent on the defensive side of the ball, this is pretty much the same nondescript ensemble of characters that took the field a year ago. Veteran safety Rashad Johnson was a decent pickup to aid their depth-challenged secondary, but he's not the type of player that's going to come in and change the fabric of this defense. If this group is able to mimic their production from 2015, they'll have a pretty good pass defense (7th in the league) with a rush defense (17th) and pass-rush (tied for 12th in sacks) that is squarely in the middle of the pack. No team has perfected the recipe for boring, middling defense like the Titans and it would be pretty surprising if someone took away that dubious honor from them in 2016.
Newly-minted defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has inherited a group that is eerily similar to the Steelers unit he coached during his last season as their defensive general in 2014. There are a few unheralded talents (safety Da'Norris Searcy, outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, inside linebacker Wesley Woodyard) and a bonafide superstar in defensive tackle Jurell Casey among the bunch, but it's a mostly average group that isn't likely to drum up much excitement or disdain. I expect plenty of trademark scowls from LeBeau, who turns 79 in September, on the sideline as he coaches this subpar bunch to a 14th or 15th overall ranking before he says "fuck it" and finally retires the minute the regular season ends.
Even with the coordinator change and 6 draft picks spent on the defensive side of the ball, this is pretty much the same nondescript ensemble of characters that took the field a year ago. Veteran safety Rashad Johnson was a decent pickup to aid their depth-challenged secondary, but he's not the type of player that's going to come in and change the fabric of this defense. If this group is able to mimic their production from 2015, they'll have a pretty good pass defense (7th in the league) with a rush defense (17th) and pass-rush (tied for 12th in sacks) that is squarely in the middle of the pack. No team has perfected the recipe for boring, middling defense like the Titans and it would be pretty surprising if someone took away that dubious honor from them in 2016.
Bottom Line:
With a tough schedule and roster still in a state of flux, The Titans are once again in a rough spot heading into the 2016 season.
With a tough schedule and roster still in a state of flux, The Titans are once again in a rough spot heading into the 2016 season.
Projected Standings
1.Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
2.Houston Texans (8-8)
2.Houston Texans (8-8)
3.Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
4.Tennessee Titans (4-12)
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