Denver Broncos
2015 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (2nd season)
Notable Additions: T Russell Okung, T Donald Stephenson, DE Jared Crick
Notable Departures: QB Peyton Manning (retired), DE Malik Jackson, QB Brock Osweiler
Offense:
After Peyton Manning unsurprisingly announced his retirement following the Broncos victory in Super Bowl 50, the reigns to the Broncos offense were presumed to be going to Brock Osweiler, who played pretty well in relief of Manning for 8 games last season. Osweiler, who was in the last year of his rookie contract in 2015, hit the open market and soon got locked into a contract stalemate with general manager John Elway (Elway was reportedly unwilling to give him the $18 million a year he desired) that ended with him signing with the Texans.
With Osweiler out of the picture, the Broncos found themselves in the type of messy quarterback situation you don't usually see happen to a team fresh off a Super Bowl victory. The team used their 1st-round pick in this year's draft to select Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch, but had no intention of starting him right away due to how raw he is, leaving 2nd-year quarterback Trevor Siemian and veteran butt fumble enthusiast Mark Sanchez, who was acquired in a trade with the Eagles, to duke it out for the starting spot. Neither one of them looked particularly good in the preseason, but head coach Gary Kubiak decided to roll with Siemian and subsequently released Sanchez.
As a young quarterback with zero experience playing in the NFL, Siemian couldn't possibly be entering a better situation. He has a pair of starting receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders that are reliable, dynamic playmakers, a running back in C.J. Anderson that can handle a heavy workload and most importantly, the type of imposing defense that can take pressure off of the offense to win games. If a physically-drained Manning could effectively run this offense, there's no reason to believe that Siemian can't.
After Peyton Manning unsurprisingly announced his retirement following the Broncos victory in Super Bowl 50, the reigns to the Broncos offense were presumed to be going to Brock Osweiler, who played pretty well in relief of Manning for 8 games last season. Osweiler, who was in the last year of his rookie contract in 2015, hit the open market and soon got locked into a contract stalemate with general manager John Elway (Elway was reportedly unwilling to give him the $18 million a year he desired) that ended with him signing with the Texans.
With Osweiler out of the picture, the Broncos found themselves in the type of messy quarterback situation you don't usually see happen to a team fresh off a Super Bowl victory. The team used their 1st-round pick in this year's draft to select Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch, but had no intention of starting him right away due to how raw he is, leaving 2nd-year quarterback Trevor Siemian and veteran butt fumble enthusiast Mark Sanchez, who was acquired in a trade with the Eagles, to duke it out for the starting spot. Neither one of them looked particularly good in the preseason, but head coach Gary Kubiak decided to roll with Siemian and subsequently released Sanchez.
As a young quarterback with zero experience playing in the NFL, Siemian couldn't possibly be entering a better situation. He has a pair of starting receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders that are reliable, dynamic playmakers, a running back in C.J. Anderson that can handle a heavy workload and most importantly, the type of imposing defense that can take pressure off of the offense to win games. If a physically-drained Manning could effectively run this offense, there's no reason to believe that Siemian can't.
Defense:
It's no secret that the Broncos rode their defense to a Super Bowl championship. Their defense led by their devastating pass-rush and suffocating run defense was nothing short of spectacular for the entire playoffs. Like most Super Bowl champions, the Broncos suffered some key losses in free agency following their hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy. Defensive end/tackle Malik Jackson and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan cashed in on big-money deals with the Jaguars and Bears respectively, leaving the Broncos with a pair of gaping holes in the middle of their front 7 that are going to be very difficult to fill with their current personnel (newly-acquired defensive end Jared Crick and career backup inside linebacker Todd Davis are currently penciled as Jackson and Trevathan's replacements in the starting lineup).
Despite the losses of Jackson and Trevathan and widespread doubt that their defense isn't going to be able to repeat the success of last season, I don't see any reason why this defense would suddenly collapse this season. Their entire starting secondary (cornerbacks Chris Harris Jr., Bradley Roby and Aqib Talib and safeties T.J Ward and Darian Stewart) that was responsible for their top-ranked pass defense are all back, the team re-signed star outside linebacker/sack artist Von Miller to a long-term deal (6 years/$114.5 mil/$70 mil guaranteed) and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is back to serve as the unpredictable maestro of this unit. While its unlikely that they'll be as overwhelmingly dominant as they were a year ago, it would be nothing short of a catastrophic shock if they weren't at least a top 5 defense again in 2016.
It's no secret that the Broncos rode their defense to a Super Bowl championship. Their defense led by their devastating pass-rush and suffocating run defense was nothing short of spectacular for the entire playoffs. Like most Super Bowl champions, the Broncos suffered some key losses in free agency following their hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy. Defensive end/tackle Malik Jackson and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan cashed in on big-money deals with the Jaguars and Bears respectively, leaving the Broncos with a pair of gaping holes in the middle of their front 7 that are going to be very difficult to fill with their current personnel (newly-acquired defensive end Jared Crick and career backup inside linebacker Todd Davis are currently penciled as Jackson and Trevathan's replacements in the starting lineup).
Despite the losses of Jackson and Trevathan and widespread doubt that their defense isn't going to be able to repeat the success of last season, I don't see any reason why this defense would suddenly collapse this season. Their entire starting secondary (cornerbacks Chris Harris Jr., Bradley Roby and Aqib Talib and safeties T.J Ward and Darian Stewart) that was responsible for their top-ranked pass defense are all back, the team re-signed star outside linebacker/sack artist Von Miller to a long-term deal (6 years/$114.5 mil/$70 mil guaranteed) and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is back to serve as the unpredictable maestro of this unit. While its unlikely that they'll be as overwhelmingly dominant as they were a year ago, it would be nothing short of a catastrophic shock if they weren't at least a top 5 defense again in 2016.
Bottom Line:
I strongly believe the rumors of the Broncos demise following the departures of Manning, Osweiler Jackson and Trevathan are greatly exaggerated and that they'll be able to return to the playoffs without incident.
Kansas City Chiefs
2015 Record: 11-5 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (4th season)
Notable Additions: T Mitchell Schwartz, QB Nick Foles, CB Kenneth Acker
Notable Departures: CB Sean Smith, G Jeff Allen, T Donald Stephenson
Offense:
The Chiefs offense has become synonymous with continuity since Andy Reid arrived in 2012 and that tradition has not been abandoned for the 2016 season. With the exception of a few tweaks on the offensive line (former Browns right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and rookie left guard Parker Ehinger are stepping in for Donald Stephenson and Jeff Allen, who both departed in free agency and right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif has surpassed 2015 starter Zach Fulton on the depth chart), this is the the same group that played a key part in their 10-game winning streak a year ago. Quarterback Alex Smith's ultra-conservative play is less than ideal for any game situation that requires a quick score and the lack of weapons behind top wideout Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce is concerning, but those issues pale in comparison to what approximately half of the offenses in the league are facing heading into this season.
The only real question mark on this offense is if running backs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West can continue to be successful fill-ins for decorated veteran Jammal Charles. Charles is reportedly going to miss the first few weeks of the season as he continues to recover from the ACL he suffered last October against the Bears, which is a bit concerning considering his age (he'll be 30 in December) and how crucial a role he plays in the success of this offense. The rushing attack keeps the Chiefs ball-control offense afloat and if Ware and West can't repeat their production from a year ago, the offense could bottom out until (or potentially if) Charles comes back at full speed.
Defense:
The Chiefs defense got dealt a couple of huge blows this offseason with stalwart starting cornerback Sean Smith leaving for the division-rival Raiders in free agency and star outside linebacker Justin Houston slated to be out for at least the first 6 games of the season after getting a knee scope to "fix" his ACL in February. The team clearly viewed Smith as expendable following the emergence of Marcus Peters last season and have a promising young corner in Steven Nelson that is ready to step into a starting role , but the loss of Houston for a prolonged period of time is potentially devastating to a defense that finished in the top 5 in the league in points allowed, sacks and rush defense a year ago. Having the excellent Tamba Hali at the other outside linebacker spot certainly helps matters, but there's no one else currently on the roster that appears to be capable of stepping up and pairing with Hali to create the patented dual edge-rushing havoc that has made the Chiefs one of the most feared defenses in the league over the past few seasons.
Having a leader and catalyst for the productivity of the entire unit in Houston miss at least a chunk of the season is certainly going to sting, but there's still enough talent here to keep them afloat while Houston recuperates. 4-time Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry and reigning defensive rookie of the year Peters gives them one of the most gifted secondaries in the league, their defensive line (nose tackle Dontrari Poe and ends Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey) is one of the most quietly stalwart units in the league and Hali and Houston's fill-in Dee Ford should be able to generate enough of a pass rush to keep opposing quarterbacks on their toes. If Houston comes back after his 6-game stint on the PUP list without showing any substantial signs of rust or lingering effects from his surgery, the Chiefs defense should be able to retain their standing as one of the league's most dominant groups.
Having a leader and catalyst for the productivity of the entire unit in Houston miss at least a chunk of the season is certainly going to sting, but there's still enough talent here to keep them afloat while Houston recuperates. 4-time Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry and reigning defensive rookie of the year Peters gives them one of the most gifted secondaries in the league, their defensive line (nose tackle Dontrari Poe and ends Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey) is one of the most quietly stalwart units in the league and Hali and Houston's fill-in Dee Ford should be able to generate enough of a pass rush to keep opposing quarterbacks on their toes. If Houston comes back after his 6-game stint on the PUP list without showing any substantial signs of rust or lingering effects from his surgery, the Chiefs defense should be able to retain their standing as one of the league's most dominant groups.
Bottom Line:
Despite retaining a majority of their key players, I don't think the Chiefs will be able to duplicate their Cinderella playoff run in 2016.
Oakland Raiders
2015 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Kelechi Osemele, CB Sean Smith, OLB Bruce Irvin
Notable Departures: S Charles Woodson (retired), DE Justin Tuck (retired), G J'Marcus Webb
Offense:
With the possible exception of the Jaguars, no young offense made more waves than the Raiders did in 2015. Quarterback Derek Carr looked like a strong, polished future franchise quarterback finishing with 32 TD's and just under the 4,000-yard benchmark (3,986) for the year, running back Latavius Murray proved he could handle a major workload increase with a 1,000+ rushing yards in his 1st season as a starter and wide receiver Amari Cooper showed flashes of superstar potential in his productive (72 REC, 1,070 YDS, 6 TD) albeit sometimes very ugly (he had 10 drops, which was tied for 2nd most in the league) rookie campaign.
With another year of experience under their collective belts and the addition of elite guard Kelechi Osemele to an offensive line that was already one of the best in the league, this promising young offense appears set to take another leap forward in 2016. Carr and Cooper's chemistry should continue to grow in their 2nd year together and heavily-hyped rookie/preseason phenom DeAndre Washington could give the Raiders another talented young back to put alongside Murray in the backfield. If everything materializes, this offense has the cache of weapons to be a top 10 offense in the league this year.
Defense:
General manager Reggie McKenzie's vigilant rebuilding process started to net results as the Raiders finished 13th against the run and tied for 14th in the league with 38 sacks in 2015. The defense still had its fair share of flaws (they surrendered 24.9 points per game, which was 22nd-most in the league and their pass defense was ranked 26th overall), but the play of 2nd-year outside linebacker/defensive end Khalil Mack, rookie defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. and 3rd-year cornerback David Amerson inspired a lot of confidence for the future.
The excitement building around their potent young offense and having a potential superstar in Mack on defense allowed the Raiders to become a huge player in free agency this offseason. The Raiders were able to scoop up a trio of starters in outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, cornerback Sean Smith and 2015 All-Pro safety Reggie Nelson. Irvin, Smith and Nelson not only address major needs (pass defense, pass-rush depth) throughout the defense, but they're all signed to contracts that won't put the Raiders into cap hell (Smith's was the steepest at 4 years/$40 million with $20 mil in guaranteed money). These moves give the Raiders the veteran presences they need to potentially elevate this defense to the next level while still giving McKenzie the freedom to add more pieces in the future if need be.
General manager Reggie McKenzie's vigilant rebuilding process started to net results as the Raiders finished 13th against the run and tied for 14th in the league with 38 sacks in 2015. The defense still had its fair share of flaws (they surrendered 24.9 points per game, which was 22nd-most in the league and their pass defense was ranked 26th overall), but the play of 2nd-year outside linebacker/defensive end Khalil Mack, rookie defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. and 3rd-year cornerback David Amerson inspired a lot of confidence for the future.
The excitement building around their potent young offense and having a potential superstar in Mack on defense allowed the Raiders to become a huge player in free agency this offseason. The Raiders were able to scoop up a trio of starters in outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, cornerback Sean Smith and 2015 All-Pro safety Reggie Nelson. Irvin, Smith and Nelson not only address major needs (pass defense, pass-rush depth) throughout the defense, but they're all signed to contracts that won't put the Raiders into cap hell (Smith's was the steepest at 4 years/$40 million with $20 mil in guaranteed money). These moves give the Raiders the veteran presences they need to potentially elevate this defense to the next level while still giving McKenzie the freedom to add more pieces in the future if need be.
Bottom Line:
With a nice combination of accomplished veterans and rising young stars throughout the roster, the Raiders are in an excellent position to overthrow the Broncos and Chiefs as the top dogs in the AFC West.
San Diego Chargers
2015 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (4th season)
Notable Additions: C/G Matt Slauson, DT Brandon Mebane, WR Travis Benjamin
Notable Departures: S Eric Weddle, TE Ladarius Green, CB Patrick Robinson
Offense:
The horrors of the injury-plagued 2015 season exposed a horrible lack of depth on the Chargers offense. As hard as Phillip Rivers tried to makes things happen with a depleted offense, he just couldn't with a makeshift offensive line, receiving corps made up of kick-return specialists and practice squad players and a non-existent running game.
General manager Tom Telasco took these depth issues into account and made addressing them a top priority in both the draft and free agency by bringing in wide receiver Travis Benjamin, center/guard Matt Slauson, tight end Hunter Henry and center Max Turek. Benjamin gives Rivers a solid number 2 receiving option with the blistering speed to take the top off of an opposing defense on any given play while Slauson is a reliable, versatile player that should be able to help put a stop to the unrest that plagued this offensive line last season. Rookies Henry and Turek are unlikely to have as significant of roles as Benjamin and Slauson do this season, but they're both very promising prospects that give the team intriguing young options if the injury bug wreaks havoc once again this season.
The additional depth is a nice insurance policy for the team, but its the return of all their injured starters of a year ago that is most likely to have the biggest impact on the fate of this offense in 2016. Top-flight young wideout Keenan Allen was easily the highest-profile player to be lost in the injury purge as he was on pace to have a career year before going down with a lacerated spleen during the team's matchup with the Ravens in Week 8. Allen's absence directly correlated to the woes the 2nd half of the season offered up for the team's passing attack and his return to the fold alone should be enough to reclaim their prime spot in the league's aerial pecking order. Left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin may not be as vital to the team's success as Allen is, but their return marks a step in the right direction for an offensive line looking to bounce back to form after an awful 2015 campaign. Rivers and head coach Mike McCoy have to be downright giddy to see what they can accomplish with this group back at nearly full health going into this season.
General manager Tom Telasco took these depth issues into account and made addressing them a top priority in both the draft and free agency by bringing in wide receiver Travis Benjamin, center/guard Matt Slauson, tight end Hunter Henry and center Max Turek. Benjamin gives Rivers a solid number 2 receiving option with the blistering speed to take the top off of an opposing defense on any given play while Slauson is a reliable, versatile player that should be able to help put a stop to the unrest that plagued this offensive line last season. Rookies Henry and Turek are unlikely to have as significant of roles as Benjamin and Slauson do this season, but they're both very promising prospects that give the team intriguing young options if the injury bug wreaks havoc once again this season.
The additional depth is a nice insurance policy for the team, but its the return of all their injured starters of a year ago that is most likely to have the biggest impact on the fate of this offense in 2016. Top-flight young wideout Keenan Allen was easily the highest-profile player to be lost in the injury purge as he was on pace to have a career year before going down with a lacerated spleen during the team's matchup with the Ravens in Week 8. Allen's absence directly correlated to the woes the 2nd half of the season offered up for the team's passing attack and his return to the fold alone should be enough to reclaim their prime spot in the league's aerial pecking order. Left tackle King Dunlap and left guard Orlando Franklin may not be as vital to the team's success as Allen is, but their return marks a step in the right direction for an offensive line looking to bounce back to form after an awful 2015 campaign. Rivers and head coach Mike McCoy have to be downright giddy to see what they can accomplish with this group back at nearly full health going into this season.
Defense:
The Chargers front office royally boned their defense heading into 2016. Their disrespect forced star safety Eric Weddle to leave in free agency and their unwillingness to fully guarantee Joey Bosa's rookie deal forced a ridiculous standoff that resulted in the number 3 overall pick missing all of training camp before signing with the team on August 29th, just 13 days ahead of the season opener against the Chiefs. The front office definitely has personnel skills as evidenced by their solid track record of drafting and free-agent pickups, but these types of stories allude to the type of internal dysfunction that can ruin an NFL locker room.
On the field, the Chargers can take solace in the fact that they have one of the promising sets of young players in the league. Jason Verrett has cemented himself as a borderline shutdown corner in just 2 years in the league, inside linebacker Denzel Perryman played very well once he was inserted into the starting lineup around the midway point of last season and the edge-rushing tandem of Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu are coming off of a 2015 season where they picked up a combined 16.5 sacks and will be hungry to top that benchmark in 2016 as they are both up for new contracts in the offseason.
Unfortunately for the Bolts D, that solid amount of young talent is undermined by a slew of glaring holes throughout the defense. An aging Brandon Mebane will most likely not stop their rush defense from being one of the worst league for a 3rd straight season, frequently-torched Brandon Flowers somehow still has a starting cornerback job and without Weddle, the safety position that has been been one of the team's longtime strengths has suddenly turned into one of their biggest vulnerabilities. Their young corps should be good enough to prevent them from being one of the worst defenses in the league, but it's unlikely they'll be able to improve upon their below average numbers from a year ago (21st in points allowed, 20th in yards allowed) without some perennially underachieving players (inside linebacker Mant'i Teo, Flowers) stepping up their game tremendously.
The Chargers front office royally boned their defense heading into 2016. Their disrespect forced star safety Eric Weddle to leave in free agency and their unwillingness to fully guarantee Joey Bosa's rookie deal forced a ridiculous standoff that resulted in the number 3 overall pick missing all of training camp before signing with the team on August 29th, just 13 days ahead of the season opener against the Chiefs. The front office definitely has personnel skills as evidenced by their solid track record of drafting and free-agent pickups, but these types of stories allude to the type of internal dysfunction that can ruin an NFL locker room.
On the field, the Chargers can take solace in the fact that they have one of the promising sets of young players in the league. Jason Verrett has cemented himself as a borderline shutdown corner in just 2 years in the league, inside linebacker Denzel Perryman played very well once he was inserted into the starting lineup around the midway point of last season and the edge-rushing tandem of Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu are coming off of a 2015 season where they picked up a combined 16.5 sacks and will be hungry to top that benchmark in 2016 as they are both up for new contracts in the offseason.
Unfortunately for the Bolts D, that solid amount of young talent is undermined by a slew of glaring holes throughout the defense. An aging Brandon Mebane will most likely not stop their rush defense from being one of the worst league for a 3rd straight season, frequently-torched Brandon Flowers somehow still has a starting cornerback job and without Weddle, the safety position that has been been one of the team's longtime strengths has suddenly turned into one of their biggest vulnerabilities. Their young corps should be good enough to prevent them from being one of the worst defenses in the league, but it's unlikely they'll be able to improve upon their below average numbers from a year ago (21st in points allowed, 20th in yards allowed) without some perennially underachieving players (inside linebacker Mant'i Teo, Flowers) stepping up their game tremendously.
Bottom Line:
The Chargers should improve from their disastrous 2015 campaign, but they don't appear to have the overall talent to compete in this very tough division.
Projected Standings:
1.Oakland Raiders (10-6)
2.Denver Broncos (10-6)
3.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
4.San Diego Chargers (6-10)
The Chargers should improve from their disastrous 2015 campaign, but they don't appear to have the overall talent to compete in this very tough division.
Projected Standings:
1.Oakland Raiders (10-6)
2.Denver Broncos (10-6)
3.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
4.San Diego Chargers (6-10)
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