Baltimore Ravens
2015 Record: 5-11 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (9th season)
Notable Additions: S Eric Weddle, WR Mike Wallace, CB Jerraud Powers
Notable Departures: G Kelechi Osemele, ILB Daryl Smith, T Eugene Monroe (retired)
Offense:
The Ravens offense going into 2016 is not in the greatest shape from an overall talent standpoint, but they're at least on track to be healthy out of the gate after major injuries to key players pretty much single-handedly derailed their 2015 season. Quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, wide receiver Steve Smith, center Jeremy Zuttah and tight end Crockett Gilmore haven't had setbacks in their rehabilitation and are all currently slated to be on the field when the Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. If the improbable happens and the offense gets bombarded with injuries and/or further regresses, my theory that their offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is a demon that was sent from the depths of hell to ruin talented offense is correct and general manager Ozzie Newsome should put a stop to his reign of terror by promptly throwing him into a piranha tank.
With the health of their top players presumably restored, the Ravens primary concern can be shifted over to their offensive line. They are returning 3 out of 5 starters including perennial All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda, but the loss of left guard Kelechi Osemele in free agency and left tackle Eugene Monroe to retirement could be potentially devastating for this unit. Osemele is one of the most powerful, well-rounded guards in the league and while Monroe has been plagued by injury over the past couple of years, he was a rock-solid left tackle whenever he was on the field. Osemele and Monroe are being replaced by John Urschel and rookie Ronnie Stanley, who was selected 6th overall in this year's draft. Urschel has picked up 10 starts (mostly at center after Zuttah got injured last season) over the past 2 seasons, but hasn't shown enough to prove he's capable of being a full-time starter in the league and while Stanley has showed a lot of promise in training camp and the preseason so far, left tackle at the professional level has such a steep learning curve that even the promising players at the position tend to get destroyed as rookies. If the newcomers struggle to adjust to being full-time starters in the NFL and right tackle Ricky Wagner can't return to form after a disastrous 2015 campaign, the Ravens could end up having their worst offensive line in at least a decade.
Their receiver group is also going to need to mesh if they want to return to form this season. Steve Smith Sr. will be back for his 16th NFL season, but coming off of a major Achilles injury at age 37 makes his comeback bid far from a sure thing. Things are equally unsettled behind Smith. 2015 1st-round pick Breshad Perriman-who has yet to play a down in the NFL-seems to develop a new ailment every day, free-agent pickup Mike Wallace is an excellent fit for the Ravens deep-ball heavy passing game, but his limited route tree and shaky hands make it hard for him to be relied upon as a primary target, their clusterfuck of tight ends (Maxx Williams, Gilmore, Nick Boyle, the newly-signed Benjamin Watson, possibly the remains of Dennis Pitta) are all average at best and it's currently unclear how 2015 standout Kamar Aiken will fare when he's not the only competent option in the passing game. There's certainly some promise with their young guys (especially Aiken) and Smith has defied the odds so many times before that it's hard to seriously doubt him, but there's also no reason to have serious faith in any wide receiver or tight end that is currently on the Ravens roster.
Defense:
The passing of the torch in the Ravens defensive front appears to be in full swing.The Ravens used their 2nd and 3rd round picks in this year's draft on a pair of edge-rushers in Kamalei Correa and Bronson Kaufusi and a 4th-rounder on defensive tackle/end Willie Henry. Adding Correa, Kaufusi and Henry to a group of already promising young players anchored by inside linebacker C.J Mosley, defensive end Timmy Jernigan and nose tackle Brandon Williams proves that Newsome is making a conscious effort to not repeat the sins of other teams with aging stars by bringing in new blood while the older guys (Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil) are still around to hold down starting spots and bestow their wisdom onto the young guys before they ride off into the sunset.
Just like the past few seasons, the Ravens strong front appears set to be undermined by the utter chaos and general lack of talent within their secondary. The addition of 5-time All-Pro safety Eric Weddle in free agency appeared to be the game-changing move they needed to finally get back on track, but that was almost immediately offset by the loss of talented young safety Will Hill, who was released 48 hours after Weddle signed with the team after once again demonstrating his lack of commitment to football by picking up his 4th drug-related suspension in 5 seasons.
To offset the loss of Hill, the Ravens have moved longtime starting corner Lardarius Webb to free safety. Plenty of aging, former star corners have found at new life after being moved to safety later in their career (Charles Woodson, Rod Woodson, Ronde Barber), but none of them were struggling as bad or as injury-prone as Webb at this point of their careers. However, Webb is only about four years removed from being an elite NFL corner, so it's certainly possible that this move could revitalize his career and make head coach John Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Dean Pees look like geniuses in the process.
The cornerback situation is somehow even messier than safety. Shareece Wright and Jimmy Smith did a fun body swap exercise in 2015 as the usually inept Wright turned into a pretty solid player as soon as he arrived in Baltimore (he was signed in early October after being released by the 49ers) while the usually excellent Smith looked like a rookie who was in way over his head dealing with top wideouts. Anyway you could possibly assess the prospects of Wright and Smith for this season, this a corner tandem that you simply can't rely on to be productive heading into 2016.
It wouldn't be a Ravens season preview without talking about their inability to lock down a competent slot corner. It looked like they had finally found the answer when they signed ex-Patriot Kyle Arrington, but he was a massive disappointment in his 1st season with the team. The Ravens newest bold solution to their slot corner woes was to bring in veteran Jerraud Powers, who has spent the past 3 seasons being the weak link in an otherwise excellent Cardinals secondary. Powers is a below average corner at best and I don't see how he's going to fare any better than Arrington did in the slot. As far as I'm concerned, the decision to play Powers and Arrington in the slot is a coin-flip with no good outcome. They are both established, mediocre veterans who hit their ceilings years ago and are unlikely to make this embattled secondary any better or worse.
The passing of the torch in the Ravens defensive front appears to be in full swing.The Ravens used their 2nd and 3rd round picks in this year's draft on a pair of edge-rushers in Kamalei Correa and Bronson Kaufusi and a 4th-rounder on defensive tackle/end Willie Henry. Adding Correa, Kaufusi and Henry to a group of already promising young players anchored by inside linebacker C.J Mosley, defensive end Timmy Jernigan and nose tackle Brandon Williams proves that Newsome is making a conscious effort to not repeat the sins of other teams with aging stars by bringing in new blood while the older guys (Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil) are still around to hold down starting spots and bestow their wisdom onto the young guys before they ride off into the sunset.
Just like the past few seasons, the Ravens strong front appears set to be undermined by the utter chaos and general lack of talent within their secondary. The addition of 5-time All-Pro safety Eric Weddle in free agency appeared to be the game-changing move they needed to finally get back on track, but that was almost immediately offset by the loss of talented young safety Will Hill, who was released 48 hours after Weddle signed with the team after once again demonstrating his lack of commitment to football by picking up his 4th drug-related suspension in 5 seasons.
To offset the loss of Hill, the Ravens have moved longtime starting corner Lardarius Webb to free safety. Plenty of aging, former star corners have found at new life after being moved to safety later in their career (Charles Woodson, Rod Woodson, Ronde Barber), but none of them were struggling as bad or as injury-prone as Webb at this point of their careers. However, Webb is only about four years removed from being an elite NFL corner, so it's certainly possible that this move could revitalize his career and make head coach John Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Dean Pees look like geniuses in the process.
The cornerback situation is somehow even messier than safety. Shareece Wright and Jimmy Smith did a fun body swap exercise in 2015 as the usually inept Wright turned into a pretty solid player as soon as he arrived in Baltimore (he was signed in early October after being released by the 49ers) while the usually excellent Smith looked like a rookie who was in way over his head dealing with top wideouts. Anyway you could possibly assess the prospects of Wright and Smith for this season, this a corner tandem that you simply can't rely on to be productive heading into 2016.
It wouldn't be a Ravens season preview without talking about their inability to lock down a competent slot corner. It looked like they had finally found the answer when they signed ex-Patriot Kyle Arrington, but he was a massive disappointment in his 1st season with the team. The Ravens newest bold solution to their slot corner woes was to bring in veteran Jerraud Powers, who has spent the past 3 seasons being the weak link in an otherwise excellent Cardinals secondary. Powers is a below average corner at best and I don't see how he's going to fare any better than Arrington did in the slot. As far as I'm concerned, the decision to play Powers and Arrington in the slot is a coin-flip with no good outcome. They are both established, mediocre veterans who hit their ceilings years ago and are unlikely to make this embattled secondary any better or worse.
Bottom Line:
The Ravens are one of the most popular choices for a bounceback season in 2016, but the unusual amount of question marks that they have surrounding them on both sides of the ball leads me to believe that they'll miss the playoffs for a 2nd straight season.
Cincinnati Bengals
2015 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (14th season)
Notable Additions: WR Brandon LaFell, ILB Karlos Dansby, S Jimmy Wilson
Notable Departures: WR Marvin Jones, S Reggie Nelson, WR Momahed Sanu
Offense:
While I doubt it will happen given the consistent contempt Bengals fans show for their team, they should welcome back starting quarterback Andy Dalton with open arms this season. A.J McCarron was able to keep the ship afloat when Dalton was held out of the last 4 games of the season after suffering a broken thumb on his throwing hand making an ill-advised tackle on an interception return in Week 14 against the Steelers, but he was merely a middling game manager who couldn't be called upon to make big plays. Dalton is a productive and proven veteran quarterback with an excellent track record in the regular season and as long as he's out there, the Bengals are going to be in playoff contention in the AFC.
Dalton's return has made some waves, but the main storyline coming out of Bengals camp this offseason is who's going to land the vacant starting receiver spot (2015 starter Marvin Jones signed with the Lions in free agency) alongside star wideout A.J. Green. With last year's number 3 wideout Momahed Sanu also departing in free agency, the battle for the number 2 receiver job appears to be between newly-added veteran wideout Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd. LaFell appears to have the inside track for the job at the moment, but if the drop problem he showed with the Patriots last season continues in the early stages of this season, Boyd should be able to take his job in no time at all.
Some analysts have theorized that the running game is going to suffer now that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is gone, but I firmly believe that the Bengals rushing attack is going to be stronger in 2016. Their heavily-criticized starting running back Jeremy Hill had one of the biggest sophomore slumps after an excellent rookie campaign in recent memory with a weak 3.6 YDS per carry and a well below-average 794 yards in 2015, but I expect this to only be a bump in the road for the LSU-bred running back. Giovani Bernard followed up his promising rookie campaign with a terrible 2nd season before getting back on track last year. With one of the best offensive lines in the league in front of him and a punishing rushing style that tends to lead to high production levels in the NFL, Hill is in an excellent position to have a similar resurgence in 2016. If Hill can get back on track, this offense should be able to remain the well-balanced force they were under Jackson.
Defense:
The cash-strapped Bengals were forced to make some tough decisions in free agency this season with 4 starters hitting the open market. They wisely decided to use their limited space to re-up on their excellent 26-year old safety George Iloka and cornerback Adam Jones, who is strangely playing the best football in his early 30's and let 2015 All-Pro safety Reggie Nelson, who turns 33 in September and 9-year veteran cornerback Leon Hall walk.
Outside of Nelson, Hall and backup defensive end Wallace Gilberry, this is basically the same unit that took the field in 2015. The defensive front led by defensive tackle Geno Atkins and defensive end Carlos Dunlap features one of the most explosive pass-rushes in the league, their rush defense is quietly excellent (finished 7th in the league in 2015) and while losing a player of Nelson and rookie cornerback William Jackson III to a season-ending pectoral tear stings, there's enough talent in place to ensure that the secondary doesn't completely collapse this season. With little notable changes and every notable contributor (except for Jones) under the age of 30, this defense appears to be in pristine shape heading into 2016.
Bottom Line:
This looks like a classic Bengals team, so expect a solid regular season before their annual grand-scale meltdown on Wild Card weekend.
Cleveland Browns
2015 Record: 3-13 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Hue Jackson (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Robert Griffin III, ILB Demario Davis, S Rahim Moore
Notable Departures: C Alex Mack, T Mitchell Schwartz, QB Johnny Manziel
Offense:
The Cleveland Browns finally decided to do the mass house-cleaning they've putting off for a decade this season by firing head coach Mike Pettine, general manager Ray Farmer and either releasing or refusing to re-sign 9 starters this offseason. Arguably the most notable move of the bunch was the decision to cut ties with troubled quarterback Johnny Manziel after 2 seasons because of his off-the-field partying antics.
With Manziel now of the picture, would they draft another quarterback at the top of the draft? Or perhaps bring in a journeyman veteran to serve as a stopgap until they find a young player they like? The answer to both of those questions is of course not. The new Browns braintrust headed by general manager Sashi Brown and his team of Ivy League-educated analytics guys thought the safest bet to replace their embattled young quarterback was to bring in another one in Robert Griffin III, who is essentially just Manziel without the coke problem. After the RG3 signing, I'm questioning whether or not the Browns number-crunchers even graduated from middle school, let alone Harvard or Princeton.
RG3's career following his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign in 2012 has been a trainwreck of epic proportions He's been playing in a perpetual state of fear since he torn his ACL in the wild card game back in January 2013 and his throwing mechanics and accuracy seem to get worse every time he takes the field. In addition to his visible lack of confidence under center and penchant for ugly throws, he's so mentally fragile that he notoriously clashed with former head coach Mike Shanahan for making him watch tape of his bad throws. While I think that head coach Hue Jackson is an excellent football mind who is capable of creating the most stable locker room atmosphere he's had since he's been in the league, I think RG3's treasure trove of problems on-and-off-the-field are past the point of fixing.
Adding to the impending doom of RG3's tenure at quarterback is an unstable offensive line and untested receiver group. The status of the offensive line, which had been of the team's few strengths in recent years, went up in flames this offseason following the departure of center Alex Mack and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz in free agency. Mack and Schwartz were two of the only pillars of stability within this team over the past few years and their presence will be sorely missed as the Brown hit the reset button on their roster. Left tackle Joe Thomas-who should win the Walter Payton Man of The Year every single year for voluntarily spending the duration of his entire Hall-of-Fame career so far with the Browns-alone is enough to prevent the line from being a complete disaster, but there's reason to be seriously concerned about the rest of the unit. Cameron Erving was terrible as a fill-in starter at guard last season and the prospect of moving to center to replace Mack is fucking terrifying, right tackle Austin Pasztor got released by the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, prior to the start of last season and both of their guards (John Greco and Joel Bitonio) are coming off of below average seasons in 2015. RG3 is probably cowering in a corner and crying as we speak at the thought of playing with "Thomas and the 4 Jabronis" in front of him this season.
On paper, the receiver situation seems pretty alright. Rookie Corey Coleman has reportedly been highly impressive throughout offseason workouts and one-time star wideout Josh Gordon managed to put the bong down for long enough to get reinstated by the league after an 18-month suspension. However, I have almost no faith that RG3 will be able to get them the football. The main knock on Coleman is his limited route tree, which doesn't bode well for a quarterback that is wildly inaccurate past 5-10 yards and despite his familiarity with RG3 during their time together at Baylor, Gordon's extended absence from football raises a lot of questions about whether or not he can still play with the same polish and edge that he had before Rodger Goodell sent him into exile for smoking the jazz cigarettes. Behind Coleman and Gordon, the prospects are bleak. Taylor Gabriel is good for the occasional surprise 65-yard touchdown and nothing else, Terrelle Pryor is a converted quarterback that has made some splash plays in the preseason, but will likely flounder the minute the regular season starts and Andrew Hawkins somehow manged to survive the mass roster purge in the offseason. If RG3 can magically regain his swag back, this passing attack could be surprisingly effective. If he continues to be the sadsack RG3 of the past 3 seasons, the Browns aerial attack will likely be even worse than it was when Brian Hoyer and Austin Davis were under center.
The potential of their rushing attack is the only reason to get excited about the Browns offense this season. Jackson is a strong proponent of the running game and he has a pair of promising backs in Isiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr that could flourish in his system. Crowell has been reasonably productive in his first 3 years in the league and Johnson Jr. showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie campaign a year ago and seems like he could be the top beneficiary of Jackson's arrival in the Forest City. Given their shakiness at quarterback, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Browns had a top 10 rushing offense this season.
Defense:
The Browns overhaul was arguably more drastic on the defensive side of the ball than offense. The team wisely dumped a lot of their overpaid aging starters (safety Donte Whitner, inside linebacker Karlos Dansby, defensive end Randy Starks) and showed their dedication to injecting the defense with young talent by selecting outside linebacker Emmanuel Ogbah and defensive end Carl Nassib with 2 of their first 3 picks in this year's draft.
The ousting of the team's older starters gives excellent opportunities for their young players including defensive tackle Danny Shelton, outside linebacker Nate Orchard and safety Ibraheim Campbell to prove their worth. However, that opportunity is bound to come with a lot of growing pains for this young nucleus (6 of their 11 projected starters have been in the league for 4 seasons or less) that collectively has very limited starting experience. Even the few veteran presences they have scattered throughout this group are unlikely to do much. Newly-signed inside linebacker Demario Davis is a competent albeit unremarkable player, outside linebacker Paul Kruger has been a massive bust since he signed with the team ahead of the team in 2013 and 2-time Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden has fallen from grace with back-to-back terrible, injury-plagued seasons. Their odds of being successful this season are very slim, but it'll be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Ray Horton will be able to discover any building blocks for the future among this raw group.
The Browns overhaul was arguably more drastic on the defensive side of the ball than offense. The team wisely dumped a lot of their overpaid aging starters (safety Donte Whitner, inside linebacker Karlos Dansby, defensive end Randy Starks) and showed their dedication to injecting the defense with young talent by selecting outside linebacker Emmanuel Ogbah and defensive end Carl Nassib with 2 of their first 3 picks in this year's draft.
The ousting of the team's older starters gives excellent opportunities for their young players including defensive tackle Danny Shelton, outside linebacker Nate Orchard and safety Ibraheim Campbell to prove their worth. However, that opportunity is bound to come with a lot of growing pains for this young nucleus (6 of their 11 projected starters have been in the league for 4 seasons or less) that collectively has very limited starting experience. Even the few veteran presences they have scattered throughout this group are unlikely to do much. Newly-signed inside linebacker Demario Davis is a competent albeit unremarkable player, outside linebacker Paul Kruger has been a massive bust since he signed with the team ahead of the team in 2013 and 2-time Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden has fallen from grace with back-to-back terrible, injury-plagued seasons. Their odds of being successful this season are very slim, but it'll be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Ray Horton will be able to discover any building blocks for the future among this raw group.
Bottom Line:
The Browns are in the middle of a major rebuild on both sides of the ball, which means they're on track for another miserable season in 2016.
The Browns are in the middle of a major rebuild on both sides of the ball, which means they're on track for another miserable season in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (9th season)
Notable Additions: TE Ladarius Green, DE Ricardo Matthews, T Ryan Harris
Notable Departures: T Kelvin Beachum, TE Heath Miller (retired), DT Steve McClendon
Offense:
The Steelers offense can't seem to catch a break heading into 2016. Martavis Bryant got suspended for the entire season back in March after failing his 3rd drug test, star running back Le'Veon Bell got suspended for 3 games for skipping multiple random drug tests and to top it all off, projected starting tight end Ladarius Green, who was signed in free agency to replace the recently-retired Heath Miller, is reportedly dealing with chronic, concussion-related headaches which may force him to retire at the age of 26.
Even with the wave of notable absences for at least a portion of 2016, the Steelers should still have one of the most potent offenses in the league this season. They have the depth at receiver (Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, Darrius Heyward-Bey) to make up for Bryant's absence and DeAngelo Williams appears to have enough left in the tank to weather the storm while Bell is forced to sit on his couch for the first 3 games of the season. More importantly, the Steelers still have one of the league's best quarterback/receiver tandem in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown at their disposal, which allows them to be a threat regardless of who else is on the field with them. If the Steelers big 3 (Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown) can stay healthy and at least provide their normal contributions, this offense will continue to be a nightmare for opposing defenses to try and contain.
The Steelers offense can't seem to catch a break heading into 2016. Martavis Bryant got suspended for the entire season back in March after failing his 3rd drug test, star running back Le'Veon Bell got suspended for 3 games for skipping multiple random drug tests and to top it all off, projected starting tight end Ladarius Green, who was signed in free agency to replace the recently-retired Heath Miller, is reportedly dealing with chronic, concussion-related headaches which may force him to retire at the age of 26.
Even with the wave of notable absences for at least a portion of 2016, the Steelers should still have one of the most potent offenses in the league this season. They have the depth at receiver (Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, Darrius Heyward-Bey) to make up for Bryant's absence and DeAngelo Williams appears to have enough left in the tank to weather the storm while Bell is forced to sit on his couch for the first 3 games of the season. More importantly, the Steelers still have one of the league's best quarterback/receiver tandem in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown at their disposal, which allows them to be a threat regardless of who else is on the field with them. If the Steelers big 3 (Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown) can stay healthy and at least provide their normal contributions, this offense will continue to be a nightmare for opposing defenses to try and contain.
Defense:
There are few things in the NFL that change less than the Steelers defense on a year-to-year basis. The usual suspects save for nose tackle Steve McClendon and cornerback Cortez Allen are all back for another season. The defensive front led by borderline elite defensive end Cameron Heyward and grizzled 10-year veteran inside inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons continues to set the tone for the whole defense. The efforts of their front led to a stout rush defense that finished 4th in the league and an excellent pass-rush that generated 48 sacks, which ranked 3rd behind the Patriots and the Super Bowl-champion Broncos, last season. If the young guns (inside linebacker Ryan Shazier, defensive end Stephon Tuitt,outside linebacker Bud Dupree) can build upon the promise they showed in 2015, the Steelers quest to return to their former defensive glory could be fast tracked.
The downside to the lack of change is that the Steelers secondary, which ranked 30th in the league last year, is still riddled with holes. Rookie Artie Burns is more than likely too raw to make a notable contribution right away and the projected starters save for last season's extremely pleasant surprise Ross Cockrell are all below average at best. At least they can relish in the fact that the frequently torched Antwon Blake decided to take his ghost coverage talents to the Titans this offseason.
Bottom Line:
With a relatively easy schedule and an almost unrivaled level of continuity, the Steelers could be primed for a deep playoff run if all of their key players can stay healthy and out of trouble.
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With a relatively easy schedule and an almost unrivaled level of continuity, the Steelers could be primed for a deep playoff run if all of their key players can stay healthy and out of trouble.
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Projected Standings:
1.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
2.Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
3.Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
4.Cleveland Browns (4-12)
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