Every year I dawn my douchey fantasy football authoritarian hat and put out a list of highly-touted players that I believe are horrible value picks. After weeks of thumbing through projections from the so-called "experts" and doing a healthy amount of mock drafts, the 2017 edition of this useless public service has finally arrived. Here are the 5 guys (plus an additional 3 "honorable" mentions at each position) I think should be avoided at their current ADP.
Quarterback: Andrew Luck (Colts) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 47.3 ESPN: 69.6 NFL.com: 52.5)
I absolutely love Andrew Luck as both a real-life and fantasy quarterback, but with his availability for the start of the season currently in question, I just can't justify spending a 4th or 5th round pick on him when there's comparable talents with a clean bill of health (Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston) getting selected around the same point.
Honorable Mentions (aka "Also going too high"): Marcus Mariota (Titans), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Phillip Rivers (Chargers)
Running Back: Melvin Gordon (Chargers) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 10.6 ESPN: 10.8 NFL.com: 11.3)
The lack of depth at running back has forced a disturbing, head-scratching trend of fantasy players overdrafting unproven talent on average-to-bad teams (Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Leonard Fournette) in the first 15-20 picks to emerge this season. Of these young, untrustworthy RB1's, none are more overvalued than Melvin Gordon. Gordon averaged just under 4 yards per carry last season, has missed multiple games in each of his first 2 NFL seasons (2 in 2015 and 3 in 2016) and most importantly, has a horrific offensive line in front of him that already lost a starter for the year (RIP Forrest Lamp). I'd rather grossly overdraft a proven stud QB like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Drew Brees with a late 1st round pick than spend one on a 3rd-year back who has no 1,000-yard rushing seasons under his belt and possesses a floor that's well below top 11 overall pick.
Honorable Mentions: Leonard Fournette (Jaguars), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Mike Gillislee (Patriots)
Wide Receiver: Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 51.2 ESPN: 59.6 NFL.com: 49.8)
Tyreek Hill has been anointed the Chiefs de facto top WR after the release of Jeremy Maclin, but I'm not sold on the idea of him suddenly getting flooded with targets now that the 29-year old Pro Bowler is out of the equation. Andy Reid primarily utilized Hill as a gadget player (355 of his 860 total yards last season came on 8 plays) to offer up a reprieve from the Chiefs' usual short-pass/run-based offense and even with the group of well below-average clowns that are currently beside him in the receiving corps (Chris Conley is currently penciled in as the other starter), I don't foresee him shifting to a more traditional outside/slot receiver role this season. Hill didn't leave his role as the offense's Swiss Army Knife while Maclin struggled to produce for the bulk of last season and reigning 1st-team All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who led the team in receptions and receiving yards in 2016, should once again be the clear focal point of the passing attack. In addition to Hill's specialist-esque role in the Chiefs ultra-conservative offense, I also have a feeling that opposing defenses are going to start scheming against his splash play-dependent skill set in his sophomore season and not let him get as many uncontested free-runs to the endzone as he did as a rookie. Unless your league counts kick return yards/TD's towards individual scoring, Hill should be avoided as a WR2/3.
Honorable Mentions: Brandin Cooks (Patriots), Davante Adams (Packers), Keenan Allen (Chargers)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 25.6 ESPN: 23.0 NFL.com: 22.0)
Every fantasy football player around the globe knows how much of a monster Rob Gronkowski is when he's healthy. He has 3 1,000+ yards seasons on his resume, has put up double-digit TD's every single season he's appeared in 11 or more games (5 out of 7 seasons in the league) and is the 1st tight end since future Hall-of-Famer Tony Gonzalez to be considered a perennial top-20 overall pick. That being said, his extensive injury history combined with his standing in a Patriots offense that prides itself on getting as many people as humanly possible involved in the passing game on a weekly basis make him an unnecessary risk at his current ADP (late 2nd-early 3rd round).
Honorable Mentions: Jordan Reed (Redskins), Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Eric Ebron (Lions)
Defense: Arizona Cardinals (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 84.9 ESPN: 155.8 NFL.com: 94.3)
No this isn't a typo, I'm pretty much only the moron in this lovely fictional football realm that's down on a defense that finished number 1 in fantasy points in most leagues last season. While the pass-rush led by Chandler Jones and Markus Golden should remain excellent, I think that the losses of star defensive lineman Calias Campbell and safety Tony Jefferson is going to effect their points allowed and takeaway total.
Honorable Mentions: Carolina Panthers, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams
Showing posts with label 5 highly ranked players to avoid in fantasy football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 5 highly ranked players to avoid in fantasy football. Show all posts
Thursday, August 10, 2017
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
5 Highly Ranked Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football: 2016 Edition
We may still be a week away from the opening of training camp and about a month and a half away from the start of the regular season, but it's never too early to start speculating about what quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defenses are being overvauled in the wonderful and often confusing world of fantasy football. Here are the five players that I think should be avoided at their current draft position.
Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 54.7, NFL.com: 54.0, ESPN: 73.7)
Palmer has looked revitalized since joining the Cardinals in 2013 and was a legitimate MVP contender for a majority of last season. However, he ended the 2015 season on a horrendous note with a trio of terrible performances (6 TD, 7 INT, 55.5 CMP%, 65.3 QBR) punctuated by a 4 INT performance against the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. The shakiness Palmer demonstrated down the stretch paired with his age (he'll be 37 in December) and checkered injury history makes his status going into 2016 murky at best. Taking a quarterback in the first half of the draft isn't the ill-advised decision many self-proclaimed fantasy gurus make it out to be, but if you're going to spend a precious early-round pick on a QB, they shouldn't carry the vast level of uncertainty Palmer has surrounding him.
Running Back: Jammal Charles (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 17.0, NFL.com: 19.0, ESPN: 14.9)
The days of Charles being a stalwart fantasy player could be in jeopardy. He turns 30 in December and is coming off of a season that was shortened by a torn ACL (the 2nd of his career). Charles has the advantage of not having the wear and tear most bellcow running backs have at this point of their career (he didn't become a full-time starter until his 3rd season in the league in 2010) and playing in a rush-first offense that has a shortage of playmakers, but with the emergence of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware in his absence last season and the uncertainty of his surgically-repaired knee will hold up over the course of an entire season, Charles is unlikely to perform at the level fantasy owners have come to expect from him in 2016.
Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman (Patriots) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 34.4, NFL.com: 44.5, ESPN: 41.4)
Despite having only 1 1,000+-yard season and zero double-digit touchdown seasons over the course of his 7-year career, Edelman is perennially coveted as a top-end WR2 that sometimes flirts with WR1 value. With Tom Brady suspended for 4 games and concerns about the status of his surgically-repaired foot, that value should be in question for 2016. With guys like T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks-who have similar floors and much higher ceilings- going in the same area, taking Edelman this high in any non-PPR league doesn't make much sense.
Tight End: Jordan Reed (Redskins) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 40.4, NFL.com 41.9, ESPN: 34.1)
Reed is one of the most gifted pass-catching tight ends in the league as evidenced by his 87 reception, 952-yard, 11-TD breakout season in 2015. Unfortunately, he's also one of the biggest wild cards in the league. He has yet to play a full season since he entered the league in 2013 and his play before last season was very erratic. Reed is an unnecessary risk at the stage of the draft he's typically being selected at, especially when you can wait a round or two and select a more seasoned, less injury-prone player with similar upside such as Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker or Travis Kelce.
Defense: Carolina Panthers (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 72.2 NFL.com: 78.3, ESPN: 80.9)
The Panthers defense was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015. While they should be solid once again, I don't think they'll be able to match the high level of production they put up for most of last season. Their revamped, Josh Norman-less secondary is unlikely to scare any competent opponent they face and it would be kind of miraculous if they were able to put up another 44-sack season with only one elite pass-rusher (Kawann Short) on their front. I think the Panthers defense will ultimately be fine in 2016, I just don't think they should be considered an elite fantasy option.
Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 54.7, NFL.com: 54.0, ESPN: 73.7)
Palmer has looked revitalized since joining the Cardinals in 2013 and was a legitimate MVP contender for a majority of last season. However, he ended the 2015 season on a horrendous note with a trio of terrible performances (6 TD, 7 INT, 55.5 CMP%, 65.3 QBR) punctuated by a 4 INT performance against the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. The shakiness Palmer demonstrated down the stretch paired with his age (he'll be 37 in December) and checkered injury history makes his status going into 2016 murky at best. Taking a quarterback in the first half of the draft isn't the ill-advised decision many self-proclaimed fantasy gurus make it out to be, but if you're going to spend a precious early-round pick on a QB, they shouldn't carry the vast level of uncertainty Palmer has surrounding him.
Running Back: Jammal Charles (Chiefs) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 17.0, NFL.com: 19.0, ESPN: 14.9)
The days of Charles being a stalwart fantasy player could be in jeopardy. He turns 30 in December and is coming off of a season that was shortened by a torn ACL (the 2nd of his career). Charles has the advantage of not having the wear and tear most bellcow running backs have at this point of their career (he didn't become a full-time starter until his 3rd season in the league in 2010) and playing in a rush-first offense that has a shortage of playmakers, but with the emergence of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware in his absence last season and the uncertainty of his surgically-repaired knee will hold up over the course of an entire season, Charles is unlikely to perform at the level fantasy owners have come to expect from him in 2016.
Wide Receiver: Julian Edelman (Patriots) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 34.4, NFL.com: 44.5, ESPN: 41.4)
Despite having only 1 1,000+-yard season and zero double-digit touchdown seasons over the course of his 7-year career, Edelman is perennially coveted as a top-end WR2 that sometimes flirts with WR1 value. With Tom Brady suspended for 4 games and concerns about the status of his surgically-repaired foot, that value should be in question for 2016. With guys like T.Y. Hilton, Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks-who have similar floors and much higher ceilings- going in the same area, taking Edelman this high in any non-PPR league doesn't make much sense.
Tight End: Jordan Reed (Redskins) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 40.4, NFL.com 41.9, ESPN: 34.1)
Reed is one of the most gifted pass-catching tight ends in the league as evidenced by his 87 reception, 952-yard, 11-TD breakout season in 2015. Unfortunately, he's also one of the biggest wild cards in the league. He has yet to play a full season since he entered the league in 2013 and his play before last season was very erratic. Reed is an unnecessary risk at the stage of the draft he's typically being selected at, especially when you can wait a round or two and select a more seasoned, less injury-prone player with similar upside such as Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker or Travis Kelce.
Defense: Carolina Panthers (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 72.2 NFL.com: 78.3, ESPN: 80.9)
The Panthers defense was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2015. While they should be solid once again, I don't think they'll be able to match the high level of production they put up for most of last season. Their revamped, Josh Norman-less secondary is unlikely to scare any competent opponent they face and it would be kind of miraculous if they were able to put up another 44-sack season with only one elite pass-rusher (Kawann Short) on their front. I think the Panthers defense will ultimately be fine in 2016, I just don't think they should be considered an elite fantasy option.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)