Monday, October 2, 2017

Assessing the Hall of Fame Odds of Active NFL Players (2017 Edition)

Even though the sanctity of the honor has been tarnished by the voting committee's moronic set of biases (penalizing players who were disrespectful to the media and/or "bad" locker room guys) and unwritten rules (quarterbacks, running backs, pass-rushers and offensive tackles take precedent over every other position, "wait in line" approach to electing wide receivers), debating what players should get inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame is a lot of fun for diehard football nerds like myself. After taking a year off to allow the field of potential candidates thin out/expand, I decided to once again sit down and determine the odds active players have of getting immortalized in the American wonderland otherwise known as Canton, Ohio once they call it a career. Feel free to post any relevant thoughts, comments, anger, etc. in the comments section below.

(Note: I don't any have concrete evidence as to why I believe these guys will make or miss the Hall of Fame, it's simply an opinion I formed after breaking down these player's resumes and comparing them side by side with guys that are currently enshrined in Canton).

*indicates a player who isn't on an active roster, but hasn't formerly retired
Locks:
Tom Brady, quarterback (Current team: New England Patriots)
Drew Brees, quarterback (Current team: New Orleans Saints Former team: San Diego Chargers)
Larry Fitzgerald, wide receiver (Current team: Arizona Cardinals)
Antonio Gates, tight end (Current team: San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers)
Shane Lechler, punter (Current team: Houston Texans Former team: Oakland Raiders)
Julius Peppers, defensive end/outside linebacker (Current team: Carolina Panthers Former teams: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers)
Jason Peters, tackle (Current team: Philadelphia Eagles Former team: Buffalo Bills)
Adrian Peterson, running back (Current team: New Orleans Saints Former team: Minnesota Vikings)
Darrelle Revis*, cornerback (Former teams: New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots)
Aaron Rodgers, quarterback (Current team: Green Bay Packers)
Ben Roethlisberger, quarterback (Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers)
Ndamukong Suh (Current team: Miami Dolphins Former team: Detroit Lions)
Joe Thomas, tackle (Current team: Cleveland Browns)
Adam Vinatieri, kicker (Current team: Indianapolis Colts Former team: New England Patriots)
J.J. Watt, defensive end (Current team: Houston Texans)
Jason Witten, tight end (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)

Strong Possibility:
Geno Atkins, defensive tackle (Current team: Cincinnati Bengals)
Antonio Brown, wide receiver (Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers)
Jammal Charles, running back (Current team: Denver Broncos Former team: Kansas City Chiefs)
Jahri Evans, guard (Current team: Green Bay Packers Former team: New Orleans Saints)
Dwight Freeney*, defensive end/outside linebacker (Former teams: Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons)
Frank Gore, running back (Current team: Indianapolis Colts Former team: San Francisco 49ers)
Rob Gronkowski, tight end (Current team: New England Patriots)
James Harrison, outside linebacker (Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers Former team: Cincinnati Bengals)
A.J. Green, wide receiver (Current team: Cincinnati Bengals)
Marshawn Lynch, running back (Current team: Oakland Raiders Former teams: Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks)
Brandon Marshall, wide receiver (Current team: New York Giants Former teams: Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, New York Jets)
Gerald McCoy, defensive tackle (Current team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 
LeSean McCoy, running back (Current team: Buffalo Bills Former team: Philadelphia Eagles)
Von Miller, outside linebacker (Current team: Denver Broncos)
Haloti Ngata, defensive tackle (Current team: Detroit Lions Former team: Baltimore Ravens)
Maurkice Pouncey, center (Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers)
Richard Sherman, cornerback (Current team: Seattle Seahawks)
Joe Staley, tackle (Current team: San Francisco 49ers)
Terrell Suggs, outside linebacker (Current team: Baltimore Ravens)
Earl Thomas, safety (Current team: Seattle Seahawks)
Demaryius Thomas, wide receiver (Current team: Denver Broncos)
Cameron Wake, defensive end (Current team: Miami Dolphins)
Eric Weddle, safety (Current team: Baltimore Ravens Former team: San Diego Chargers)
Marshal Yanda, guard (Current team: Baltimore Ravens)

Too Early to Tell, but Appear to Be on the Right Track:
Dan Bailey, kicker (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)
Odell Beckham Jr., wide receiver (Current team: New York Giants)
Le'Veon Bell, running back (Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers) 
Fletcher Cox, defensive tackle/end (Current team: Philadelphia Eagles)
Aaron Donald, defensive tackle (Current team: St.Louis/Los Angeles Rams)
Mike Evans, wide receiver (Current team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Chris Harris Jr., cornerback (Current team: Denver Broncos)
Johnny Hekker, punter (Current team: St.Louis/Los Angeles Rams)
Travis Fredrick, center (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)  
Julio Jones, wide receiver (Current team: Atlanta Falcons)
Luke Kuechly, inside linebacker (Current team: Carolina Panthers)
Khalil Mack, defensive end (Current team: Oakland Raiders)
Zack Martin, guard (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)
Marcus Peters, cornerback (Current team: Kansas City Chiefs)
Patrick Peterson, cornerback (Current team: Arizona Cardinals)
Tyron Smith, tackle (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)
Justin Tucker, kicker (Current team: Baltimore Ravens)
Bobby Wagner, inside linebacker (Current team: Seattle Seahawks)
Russell Wilson, quarterback (Current team: Seattle Seahawks)

Toss-Ups:
Eric Berry, safety (Current team: Kansas City Chiefs)
NaVorro Bowman, inside linebacker (Current team: San Francisco 49ers)
Dez Bryant, wide receiver (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)
Kam Chancellor, safety (Current team: Seattle Seahawks)
Elvis Dumervil, outside linebacker (Current team: San Francisco 49ers Former teams: Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens)
Stephen Gostkowski, kicker (Current team: New England Patriots)
Tamba Hali, outside linebacker (Current team: Kansas City Chiefs)
Justin Houston, outside linebacker (Current team: Kansas City Chiefs)
Ryan Kalil, center (Current team: Carolina Panthers)
Alex Mack, center (Current team: Atlanta Falcons Former team: Cleveland Browns)
Nick Mangold*, center (Former team: New York Jets)
Eli Manning, quarterback (Current team: New York Giants)
Clay Matthews, outside/inside linebacker (Current team: Green Bay Packers)
Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end (Current team: New York Giants)
Josh Sitton, guard (Current team: Chicago Bears Former team: Green Bay Packers)
Harrison Smith, safety (Current team: Minnesota Vikings)
Aqib Talib, cornerback (Current team: Denver Broncos Former teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots)
Mario Williams*, defensive end (Former teams: Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins)
Trent Williams, tackle (Current team: Washington Redskins)
 
Longshots:
Michael Bennett, defensive end (Current team: Seattle Seahawks Former team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Antonie Bethea, safety (Current team: Arizona Cardinals Former team: Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers)
Duane Brown, tackle (Current team: Houston Texans)
Calias Campbell, defensive tackle/end (Current team: Jacksonville Jaguars Former team: Arizona Cardinals)
Antonio Cromartie*, cornerback (Former teams: San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts)
Thomas Davis, outside linebacker (Current team: Carolina Panthers)
Vernon Davis, tight end (Current team: Washington Redskins Former team: San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos)
Vontae Davis, cornerback (Current team: Indianapolis Colts Former team: Miami Dolphins)
Matt Forte, running back (Current team: New York Jets Former team: Chicago Bears)
Jimmy Graham, tight end (Current team: Seattle Seahawks Former team: New Orleans Saints)
Brent Grimes, cornerback (Current team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Former team: Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins)
T.Y Hilton, wide receiver (Current team: Indianapolis Colts)
Richie Incognito, guard (Current team: Buffalo Bills Former teams: St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins)
Mike Iupati, guard (Current team: Arizona Cardinals Former team: San Francisco 49ers)
Vincent Jackson*, wide receiver (Former teams: San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Chris Johnson, running back (Current team: Arizona Cardinals Former teams: Tennessee Titans, New York Jets)
Derrick Johnson, inside linebacker (Current team: Kansas City Chiefs)
Cameron Jordan, defensive end (Current team: New Orleans Saints)
Andy Lee, punter (Current team: Arizona Cardinals Former team:s San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers)
Sean Lee, inside linebacker (Current team: Dallas Cowboys)
Kyle Long, guard (Current team: Chicago Bears)
Andrew Luck, quarterback (Current team: Indianapolis Colts)
Devin McCourty, safety (Current team: New England Patriots)
DeMarco Murray, running back (Current team: Tennessee Titans Former teams: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles)
Jordy Nelson, wide receiver (Current team: Green Bay Packers)
Cam Newton, quarterback (Current team: Carolina Panthers)
Kelechi Osemele, guard (Current team: Oakland Raiders Former team: Baltimore Ravens)
Greg Olsen, tight end (Current team: Carolina Panthers Former team: Chicago Bears)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, cornerback (Current team: New York Giants Former teams: Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos)
Phillip Rivers, quarterback (Current team: San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers)
Matt Ryan, quarterback (Current team: Atlanta Falcons)
Max Unger, center (Current team: New Orleans Saints Former Team: Seattle Seahawks)
T.J. Ward, safety (Current team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Former teams: Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos)
Andrew Whitworth, tackle (Current team: Los Angeles Rams Former team: Cincinnati Bengals)
Kyle Williams, defensive tackle (Current team: Buffalo Bills)

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