Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2018 Editon

It's mid-September, which means Hollywood has just wrapped up the glamorous, globetrotting launch pad for awards season that is the late summer/early fall film festival circuit. Telluride, Toronto and Venice seemed to be particularly buzzworthy this year as nearly every potential contender ended up receiving raves from critics. This wave of hype, hope and temporary burst of over-the-top optimism from cinephiles about the state of modern film gives way to one of my favorite traditions: Predicting Oscar nominees and winners nearly five months before the ceremony takes place. Per usual, it needs to be noted that some high-pedigree films (Mary Queen of Scots, Vice, On the Basis of Sex, Bohemian Rhapsody) have yet to have formal press screenings and the hierarchy of contenders could radically change once they premiere. Without further ado, here's my highly speculative, way too early predictions for the 91st Academy Awards.    

*indicates the projected winner 

Best Picture:
Boy Erased
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Favourite 
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born*
Vice

Best Director:
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)*
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)  
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Best Actor:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)*
Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)

Best Actress:
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) 
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*
Saiorse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)*
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
John C. Riley (Stan and Ollie) 
 
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)*  
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Best Animated Feature:
Early Man
The Incredibles 2*  
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 
Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse

Best Original Screenplay:
Eight Grade
The Favourite* 
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Boy Erased
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born