MVP: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback (Chiefs)
This MVP race is shaping up to be very interesting. Todd Gurley has been borderline unstoppable, Drew Brees has enjoyed arguably his sharpest start to a season ever at age 39 and Phillip Rivers is quietly putting together his best season in over a decade. As brilliant as all of these guys have been, the 23-year old gunslinger in Kansas City has been an unexpected, jaw-dropping phenomenon that has put the entire league on notice. Mahomes' unbelievable play (2,901 YDS, 29 TD's, 66.2 CMP% 116.7 QBR, the former two of which are league-highs) out of the gate has turned the Chiefs into an incredibly lethal offensive machine. These numbers become even more impressive when you consider that his only career start coming into this season was in a meaningless Week 17 game versus the Broncos last December, 4 of the team's 8 wins on the year have come on the road and the Chiefs defense is below average on their best day. While I'm not ready to anoint Mahomes as the next all-time great quite yet, his early returns have been astounding and I can't wait to see what he does for the rest of this year and beyond.
Honorable Mentions: Todd Gurley, running back (Rams), Drew Brees, quarterback (Saints), Phillip Rivers, quarterback (Chargers)
Top Offensive Player: Todd Gurley, running back (Rams)
Gurley has somehow already managed to smash the monstrous expectations he had coming into this season. He's currently averaging just over 2 TD's per game (17 in 9 games), led the league in rushing by over 100 YDS before Week 10 action kicked off last night and has seen upticks in every major category with the exception of YDS per reception from his sensational 2017 campaign. Sounds like a foolproof formula for a repeat OPOY bid if you ask me.
Honorable Mentions: Melvin Gordon, running back (Chargers), Adam Thielen, wide receiver (Vikings), James Conner, running back (Steelers)
Top Defensive Player: Aaron Donald, defensive tackle (Rams)
What I just about Gurley can also be applied to his teammate and fellow reigning individual award winner Donald. The most dominant defensive player in the league has gotten pressure on the QB on over 20% of his pass-rushes and is already just 2 sacks away from setting a new career high (12) with 7 games left on the schedule. I feel sorry for any offensive lineman that's tasked with trying to contain this inhuman force of nature.
Honorable Mentions: J.J. Watt, defensive end (Texans), Danielle Hunter, defensive end (Vikings), Von Miller, outside linebacker (Broncos)
Top Offensive Rookie: Saquon Barkley, running back (Giants)
It's been yet another miserable season for the Giants as they currently sit at 1-7 and look like they have a real shot of landing the #1 overall pick in next year's draft. One of the very few bright spots on this reeling team has been top draft pick Saquon Barkley. Eli Manning's comically timid play under center has given Barkley plenty of chances to flash his dual-threat playmaking ability, registering 1,016 scrimmage YDS and 7 scores on 159 touches (111 carries, 58 receptions) through 8 games. With the Giants likely enter to full tank mode within the next couple weeks, don't be surprised if he gets even more usage down the stretch.
Honorable Mentions: Phillip Lindsay, running back (Broncos), Calvin Ridley, wide receiver (Falcons), Sony Michel, running back (Patriots)
Top Defensive Rookie: Derwin James, safety/linebacker/cornerback (Chargers)
There are a few guys who have far sexier accolades to their name: Darius Leonard leads the league in tackles (88), Donte Jackson is tied for the league lead in INT's (4) and Denzel Ward ranks in the top 5 in both INT's (3) and passes defensed (9). However, what James has been able to do so far has left way more of an impression on me. The Chargers have utilized him as a true swiss-army knife and he's exceled from every spot he's lined up, posting 55 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT and 6 passes defensed in just 8 games. Watching a rookie handle so many different assignments on a weekly basis speaks volumes about how athletic, intelligent and unselfish of a player James is.
Honorable Mentions: Darius Leonard, inside linebacker (Colts), Jessie Bates, safety (Bengals), Denzel Ward, cornerback (Browns)
Top Coach: Andy Reid (Chiefs)
Entrenched veteran head coaches who take their teams to the playoffs nearly every year aren't usually considered for an award that's pretty much designed to honor new head coaches that lead their teams to massive swings in the win column, but Reid's masterful work this season is more than deserving of an exception to this unwritten rule. His pivotal role in the development of Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs playing arguably the best football of his pretty successful 6-year tenure with the team thus far and subsequently made the very risky decision to move on from Alex Smith look like a stroke of genius.
Honorable Mentions: Anthony Lynn (Chargers), Bill O'Brien (Texans), Matt Nagy (Bears)
Top Comeback Player: J.J. Watt, defensive end (Texans)
I'm going to be completely honest: this is one of the most surprising comebacks I've ever seen in the NFL. After suffering a string of horrific injuries that kept him out of all but 8 games over the past 2 seasons, Watt looked like he bound for a massive regression if he was able to consistently stay on the field in 2018. Instead, the 29-year old has reminded everyone why he's a 3x Defensive Player of the Year by routinely getting to the quarterback (his 9 sacks are tied for 3rd most in the league) and causing problems at the line of scrimmage. If he can keep up this level of production and continue to avoid the dreaded injury bug down the stretch, he should be a shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year.
Honorable Mentions: Andrew Luck, quarterback (Colts), Odell Beckham Jr., wide receiver (Giants), Carson Wentz, quarterback (Eagles)
Playoff Predictions
AFC:
1.Patriots
2.Chiefs
3.Steelers
4.Texans
5.Chargers
6.Bengals
Wild Card:
Steelers over Bengals
Chargers over Texans
Divisional Round:
Patriots over Chargers
Chiefs over Steelers
Conference Championship:
Chiefs over Patriots
NFC:
1.Saints
2.Rams
3.Vikings
4.Redskins
5.Panthers
6.Packers
Wild Card:
Vikings over Packers
Panthers over Redskins
Divisional Round:
Saints over Panthers
Rams over Vikings
Conference Championship:
Saints over Rams
Super Bowl:
Saints over Chiefs
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