As I said yesterday, a miscalculation on my part prevented me from writing my annual NFL Free Agency column on Friday and since then, a ton of notable names have either been franchise tagged or re-signed by the team they played for last season. To counter that error in judgement, I'm going to change things up a bit by doing a loosely-structured, rapid fire take piece where I discuss the deals that have been already done, how they're going to effect the rest of the market, etc. Without further ado, here are some predictions, reactions and other miscellaneous thoughts on the 2020 NFL Free Agency period.
-While Tom Brady is still the biggest story of free agency, it's been amazing to observe the tidal wave of bullshit that has been tossed around surrounding his potential suitors. The Titans proved their interest wasn't real by inking Ryan Tannehill to a new 4 year deal worth up to $118 mil ($62 mil guaranteed) yesterday, not a solitary peep has come out of the Chargers or Raiders camps in the past 72 hours and the truly insane narrative that the 49ers were going to dump Jimmy Garoppolo for him finally got squashed over the weekend. More or less, this means that the only outside team who was serious about their interest is the Buccaneers. With his market seemingly clarified, Brady's ultimate decision will further expose what narratives were real and which ones were fake. Does he value a paycheck and a chance to play with top-tier weapons at the cost of learning a new system and taking a monumental physical beating at age 43 or does he want to go about his business the same way he has for the 20 past seasons? I'm leaning towards the latter, especially since Bruce Arians runs a scheme that couldn't possibly be more poorly-suited to Brady's strengths as a surgical short-to-intermediate passer.
-HOT TAKE ALERT: I believe the Titans made the right choice by choosing to re-sign Tannehill over pursuing Brady. Let me explain why I feel this way as clearly as possible so I'm not accused of dumping on Brady's legacy:
1. Brady has repeatedly said he's going to retire at 45, which gives him a max of 3 more seasons in the league if his word is to be believed. This means Brady would have to learn a new system, develop a rapport with all new receivers and completely change his approach to offseason workouts for the first time in forever to try and win a title in a very short window. That's a tall, tall order to put on any quarterback-especially when they're as old as Brady.
2.Despite the Titans AFC Championship appearance this season, there's not enough reason to believe that they were a "quarterback" away from winning a championship. Their defense is mediocre as hell and they don't exactly have a war chest of weapons outside of Derrick Henry and promising young wideout A.J. Brown.
3.Speaking of Brown, why the hell would the front office and coaching staff want to risk his development by pairing him with a QB that has repeatedly shown no faith or interest in working with young receivers? Brady would rather throw the ball to a 37 year old with no gas left in the tank than a promising young kid that has a chance to be special if he continues to learn and get opportunities to make plays. Considering that Brown is the focal point of the Titans passing attack, bringing Brady in makes no sense.
4.Has anyone considered that Brady might actually showing signs of aging in his EARLY FUCKING 40'S????? Yes, he's the greatest quarterback I've ever seen play the game. Yes, he's aged gracefully thus far. But does that make him impervious to a decline in play? Of course not. What happened with the Patriots last season can't entirely be put on their lackluster receiving corps and people have to actually grapple with the possibility that Brady might not be an absolute killing machine anymore. As hard as it is to believe, even unprecedented greatness can come to an end at some point.
Could Tannehill end up being a bust? No question. He was a pretty average quarterback during his time with the Dolphins and his playoff performances were very underwhelming for a guy who was tearing apart defenses with relative ease during the regular season. However, signing a quarterback that has proven he can thrive in your system and showed remarkable polish as soon as he got under center is something that is worth taking a chance on.
-Tannehill's deal should eliminate any doubt that the Cowboys are going to make Dak Prescott the highest-paid QB in the league. Any quarterback that isn't a complete stiff is practically guaranteed to get record-setting money when they get a new contract in the current landscape and since Prescott is a promising QB on the cusp of entering his prime (he'll be 27 in July) that made huge strides in his 1st year with Kellen Moore as OC, he's going to command an absolutely absurd amount of cash. At least $140 mil over 4 years seems like a distinct possibility.
-The rest of the quarterback market is going to be fascinating to watch. If Brady stuns the world and ends up signing with the Bucs, the notoriously unrefined gunslinger Jameis Winston will become an intriguing dice roll option for any QB-needy team. Teddy Bridgewater seems like a lock to get an opportunity to start elsewhere after impressing in relief of Drew Brees last season. Marcus Mariota should attract attention from a number of suitors looking to push their QB's (Bears, Raiders, Jaguars, Colts, Lions) and get a chance to possibly do what Tannehill did him to last year. Phillip Rivers might end up retiring if the right opportunity doesn't present itself (maybe the Colts will come calling?). Andy Dalton and Nick Foles seem likely to join this deep market if their current teams can't find trade partners. One thing is for sure: By this time next week, there's going to be a lot of known quarterbacks heading to new destinations.
-Franchise tagging Derrick Henry, Shaq Barrett and Chris Jones was the right move for a variety of reasons. In the case of Jones, it prevents an elite interior pass-rusher from hitting the market while the Chiefs try to work out a long-term extension that won't hurt their ability to give Patrick Mahomes a huge payday down the line. When it comes to Barrett, it gives the Bucs a chance to see if his massive 2019 production boom (19.5 sacks-besting his previous career high in 2015 by a whopping 14) was simply a result of him rushing the passer significantly more in Todd Bowles' blitz-happy defense or an actual rise to top-tier edge rusher status for a player that was merely solid during his 5 seasons with the Broncos. For Henry, the tag allows the Titans to avoid making the mistake that the Rams made with giving Todd Gurley a long-term deal and potentially handle a high-volume runner with a violent, punishing play style that is all but guaranteed to have a short career shelf life on a year-to-year basis.
-As always, much is being made in circles about not overpaying for potential contract year wonders including Austin Hooper, Anthony Harris and Justin Simmons-the latter two of which were franchise tagged by the Vikings and Broncos. While acknowledging the possible risks of signing those guys is certainly warranted, why aren't those same levels of caution applied to the contract discussions of wildly erratic star players like Amari Cooper and Jadevon Clowney? They boast at least the same amount of risk as the aforementioned players and since they play higher value positions, are likely to receive much larger contracts. Not to mention, they both have very serious red flags surrounding their games. Cooper has some of the shakiest hands in the league, Clowney's work ethic is questionable at best and both of them have durability concerns. In a perfect world, they'd both get short-term "prove it" deals, but there's no chance in hell that happens-so whatever teams end up signing them better hope that the negative aspects of their play don't intensify during their second contracts.
-Byron Jones is arguably the most intriguing player on the market without a clear destination. He's versatile (over 30+ starts at both corner and safety), has only missed 1 game over the course of his 5-year career and has grown into one of the strongest man coverage DB's in the league over the past couple of seasons. Since the Cowboys more than likely won't be to afford to bring him back, look for any pass defense-challenged team (Colts, Eagles, 49ers, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Raiders, Redskins, Panthers) with cap space to make a run at him.
-If you're looking for a "surprise" contender to earn a huge deal, keep an eye on inside linebacker Corey Littleton. Littleton has thrived since the Rams named him a starter on defense in 2018, is an All-Pro special teamer and is still just 26 years old. He has a very legit chance to top the 5 year/$85 mil deal the Jets gave C.J. Mosley last season.
-The late wave of notable cuts has added a lot of potential big name redemption projects to the market. Struggling and/or injury-prone vets including Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant and Devonta Freeman could really pop if they enter the right system or in the case of the two ex-Falcons, beat the injury bug that has ailed them of late. These guys will be affordable options at in-demand positions and that potential for excellent value should allow to them garner a fair amount of attention on the market.
-With the trade of David Johnson to the Texans, Kenyan Drake-who received the transition tag-has earned his spot as the Cardinals starting running back. Shoutout Steve Kiem and Kliff Kingsbury for being brilliant football minds and not letting greatness walk out the door.
-Bill O'Brien needs to be permanently banned from making player personnel decisions. His trade of 5x All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for an ailing David Johnson and a pair of draft picks (2020 2nd round, 2021 4th round) is already a strong contender for the most inexplicable and flat-out bad deals in NFL history.
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