Buffalo Bills over Indianapolis Colts: Despite coming in as the hottest team in the AFC and maybe even the entire league, a perspective Bills playoff run is hard to have faith in or even comprehend. This franchise seemingly has a hex on them that allows them to lose playoffs games in the most painful, jaw-dropping ways imaginable (all 4 Super Bowls in the 90's, the Music City Miracle, whatever the hell happened in Houston last season) and even in a season where he's shown tremendous growth in terms of consistency, accuracy and decisionmaking, Josh Allen has proven he's still capable of spectacular, turnover-filled implosions that can abruptly derail a game. As skeptical as I am about the Bills' odds of making a run, I'd still be pretty surprised if a Colts team led by an ailing, notoriously cold weather-challenged Philip Rivers ended up being the team that knocked them out.
Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Rams: Divisional foes meeting in the playoffs usually result in close, low-scoring slugfests and since that's exactly what we got when these two teams squared off in Week 16, I expect the same to happen on Saturday afternoon. While the Rams have the deeper and more proven defense that would traditionally give them the edge in this type of matchup, the Seahawks superior offensive firepower and questionable at best health of Jared Goff (if he's deemed healthy enough to play after having thumb surgery last Monday) makes Seattle the slight favorite here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Football Team: I'm very tempted to pick Washington here. Ron Rivera is one of the only head coaches in the league that can claim that they've had any degree of success against a Tom Brady-led team (he went 2-0 against Brady's Patriots during his time with the Panthers), the Bucs as a collective are exactly the type of undisciplined, mentally soft team that could overlook an opponent because of their record and most importantly, Washington's defense has the vicious pass rush/strong corner combo that has given Brady fits all 5 times he had to face teams that possessed those qualities during the Bucs creampuff 2020 schedule. However, Alex Smith is seriously banged up and their skill position players have been pretty terrible in recent weeks and Tampa's defense is good enough for them to win a low scoring game against a hampered offense.
Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans: The Titans stunned the entire NFL world last January when they went into Baltimore and manhandled a 14-2 Ravens team that was the top seed in the AFC. Despite a worthy effort, the Ravens attempt to avenge that humiliating loss earlier this season failed when they fell 30-24 in OT after Derrick Henry ripped off a 29-YD walkoff TD run. I believe the 3rd time facing the Titans in the last calendar year will be the charm for the Ravens. The Titans porous defense is going to a very hard time keeping up with the deep rotation of rushers the Ravens utilize (Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram), the Ravens are playing significantly better now than they were they narrowly lost to the Titans in November and as difficult as Henry and A.J. Brown are to matchup with, the Ravens aggressive, physical defense should be able to slow them down just enough to secure Jackson his 1st career playoff win.
New Orleans Saints over Chicago Bears: If any heavyweight contender is capable of losing to a mediocre at best Bears team that went 3-7 to end the regular season, it's a Saints team that's headed up by the covert all time choke artist duo of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Since their lone Super Bowl run in 2009, they've suffered a string of inexplicable playoff losses (Wild Card Round in 2010 to a Seahawks team that went 7-9, Minneapolis Miracle in 2016, NFC Championship Game in 2018 against the Rams where they were outscored 26-10 after taking a 13-0 lead into the 2nd quarter), Wild Card last year to the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings), missed the playoffs four times and made it past the divisional round just once (the aforementioned debacle in 2018). Even though gagging is embedded in their DNA, a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears team that is down 2 of their top 3 corners (rookie Jaylon Johnson, Buster Skrine) and possibly more key additional starters (inside linebacker Roquan Smith, emerging rookie wideout Darnell Mooney) paired with the fact that this game is in the weather-proof confines of New Orleans should prevent the Saints seasonal diarrhea from popping up this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns: You have to feel for the Browns. They make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and lose their head coach/offensive playcaller, multiple starters (star guard Joel Bitonio, safety Ronnie Harrison, possibly more as the week goes) and all of their practice time due to a COVID outbreak within their facility right before the game. Making matter worse, they have a matchup on Sunday against a physically-drained Steelers team that is basically begging to get knocked off so they can finally get some rest after playing 13 straight weeks that would've been very winnable if they were at full strength. Absolutely brutal break for a long suffering franchise and hopefully they'll get a crack at playoff glory again soon after the pandemic has subsided.
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