It's very odd to start thinking about the upcoming Hollywood award season at a time where they're typically already starting handing out statues (last year's Golden Globes took place on January 5th), but thanks to the COVID-driven shifts in the eligibility window (all titles have to be released via theaters, streaming, VOD or a public drive-in screening by February 26th instead of the typical December 31st cutoff), the kickoff of the season has been pushed back to late February with the Oscars currently slated for April 25th. While studios were mostly forced to shift whatever they had scheduled for theatrical release during this period (The French Dispatch, West Side Story, The Last Duel), this year's field of potential contenders in all major categories is still very strong thanks to robust slates from the streaming juggernauts and a few entries (Nomadland, Minari, The Father) from the specialty distributors that have already met the qualification requirements as they await their TBD planned theatrical releases.
Although it's not as prevalent as usual this year for obvious reasons, it does need to be noted that there are still a handful of potential contending titles that critics/members of the voting bodies haven't seen yet (Malcolm & Marie, Judas and the Black Messiah, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, The Dig, The Little Things) that could throw a late wrench in the field of presumed frontrunners and radically change the predicted nominees below. Now that the obligatory preamble and caveats are out of the way, here are my current projections for the individuals and movies that will be up for the film industry's most prestigious awards three and a half months from now.
(Note: * indidcates projected winner)
Best Picture:
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland*
One Night in Miami
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Director:
Lee Issac Chung (Minari)
David Fincher (Mank)
Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)*
Best Actor:
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)*
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Best Actress:
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)*
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Zendaya (Malcom & Marie)
Best Supporting Actor:
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)*
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Best Supporting Actress:
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Coleman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)*
Best Original Screenplay:
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7*
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland*
One Night in Miami
Best Animated Feature:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul*
Wolfwalkers
Best International Feature:
Another Round*
The Mole Agent
Night of the Kings
Sun Children
Two of Us
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