93rd Academy Award Predictions

The long road through this unusual awards season is finally coming to a close on Sunday in Los Angeles when the Oscars get handed out in the first largely in-person ceremony since the pandemic started. Here are the films and individuals I expect to walk away with the prestigious gold hardware. 

Best Picture:

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah 

Mank

Minari 

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman 

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

And the Winner Is: Nomadland

Don't buy into the manufactured narrative that's being perpetuated by the Hollywood trade publications and the gamblers that the The Trial of the Chicago 7 is primed to pull off an upset because of its SAG Best Ensemble Cast win. Nomadland has effectively been penciled in as the Best Picture winner since it took home the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival back in September and its 100% win rate at the award shows that its been nominated at has only further solidified its ground as the unquestioned frontrunner for this award.

Best Director:

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

David Fincher (Mank)

Thomas Vinterburg (Another Round)

Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

And the Winner Is: Chloe Zhao

Another lock for Nomadland. Zhao has built up such an impenetrable wall of buzz after clean sweeping the entire awards circuit that if she doesn't end up making history as the first woman of color (and only second woman ever) to win Best Director, it would qualify as one of the most unfathomable upsets in Oscars history. 

Best Actor:

Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Anthony Hopkins (The Father)

Gary Oldman (Mank)

Steven Yuen (Minari)

And the Winner Is: Chadwick Boseman

While Riz Ahmed's surprise Independent Spirit Award win and the reports that Anthony Hopkins is receiving a late surge in support after The Father's wide release in the US last month have made things interesting down the stretch, it doesn't seem likely that Boseman's peers are going to pass on the opportunity to honor his legacy with Oscar gold for what is arguably the greatest performance of his tragically short career.    

Best Actress:

Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)

Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

Frances McDormand (Nomadland)

Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

And the Winner Is: Carey Mulligan

This is such a fascinating logjam of a category. Davis, Day, McDormand and Mulligan all secured victories at the first four industry centerpiece ceremonies (Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, SAG, BAFTA) and even with roughly 48 hours to go until showtime, there's still no consensus frontrunner here. However, with last night's Independent Spirit Award win over Davis and McDormand, Mulligan appears to have inched ahead of the pack in the most closely contested race this category has seen in recent memory.  

Best Supporting Actor:

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami...)

Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

And the Winner Is: Daniel Kaluuya 

The late entry of Kaluuya's explosive turn as assassinated Black Panther Party leader Fred Hampton into this category has completely disrupted what was previously perceived to be a pretty wide open race and unless Raci's Independent Spirit Award victory over a field that featured no one else that's nominated here proves to be a surprise harbinger for Sunday's results, his impressive run of award season dominance will end on the highest note possible.  

Best Supporting Actress:

Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

Olivia Colman (The Father)

Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

And the Winner Is: Youn Yuh-Jung

Yuh-Jung has completely stolen the early momentum Bakalova had built up and considering how much the Oscars have historically shunned comedic performances, she likely won't be able to come back and put a stop to Yuh-Jung's recent hot streak.

Other Categories:

Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

Best Animated Feature: Soul

Best International Feature: Another Round

Best Documentary Feature: Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution 

Best Cinematography: Nomadland

Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal

Best Score: Soul

Best Original Song: "Speak", (One Night in Miami...)

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Production Design: Mank

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

Best Visual Effects: Tenet

Best Animated Short: If Anything Happens, I Love You

Best Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha 

Best Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers 

What My Ballot Would Look Like If I Was a Voter:

Best Picture: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Director: Emerald Fennell 

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman

Best Actress: Andra Day

Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung

Best Original Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father 

Best Animated Feature: Soul

Best Documentary Feature: Time

Best International Feature: Another Round

Best Cinematography: Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Film Editing: Promising Young Woman

Best Score: Minari

Best Original Song: "Speak Now", One Night in Miami...

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Production Design: Tenet

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

Best Visual Effects: Love and Monsters

Best Animated Short: N/A

Best Documentary Short: N/A

Best Live Action Short: N/A