Atlanta Falcons
2021 Record: 7-10 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Arthur Smith (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Casey Hayward, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Bryan Edwards
Notable Departures: QB Matt Ryan, ILB Foyesade Oluokun, WR Russell Gage
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Watching Their Sneaky Strong Group of Young Players Play
All of the noise surrounding the departures of longtime franchise guys (Julio Jones, Matt Ryan) combined with their quiet mediocrity in recent years has overshadowed the fact that the Falcons do have some really promising young talent within their ranks. A.J. Terrell is quietly turning into one of the league's only true shutdown corners, Kyle Pitts put together a spectacular rookie campaign (68 REC/1,026 YDS/1 TD) under less-than-ideal circumstances in which he was often the focal point of the opposing defense's pass coverage that reenforced his unicorn status as a polished, speedy wide receiver who's trapped in the body of a tight end, Chris Lindstrom continued his ascent up the guard ranking hierarchy with a career-best 2021 campaign in which he allowed 0 sacks and Matt Hennessey is beginning to look like a true cornerstone lineman at center after his terrific showing in his 1st year as a full-time starter last season. As they gear up for what will almost certainly be another lost season for a team that is bizarrely teetering between hitting the reset button and adding veteran talent who would be better suited to play for a contender with the hopes of making a dark horse playoff push, watching these guys play and (ideally) grow should provide a degree of comfort for a fanbase that is largely frustrated with their current murky status.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Overall Talent of the Roster
Although the signing of a reliable veteran in Casey Hayward to pair with Terrell at corner and the assembling of a solid draft class (Drake London, Arnold Ebiketie, Desmond Ridder, Troy Andersen, Tyler Allgeier, DeAngelo Malone) that's full of guys who could turn into really good pros should conceivably give this team an overall talent boost, there is still a concerning lack of talent throughout the Falcons roster.
Before mentioning who is still here, it needs to be noted that they lost top contributors to their 2021 team in Matt Ryan, Russell Gage, Foyesade Oluokun and Duron Harmon during the offseason and star WR Calvin Ridley will be serving a season-long suspension for betting on games while he was away from football last year (the NFL continues to have its disciplinarily priorities straight!). Losing 4 key starters and a game changing WR from a team that wasn't exactly swimming in talent is a pretty shitty way to turn the page on a new season, but it's not an unexpected result given where this team currently is.
As for the guys who are still here, nearly every spot outside of corner and offensive line is sketchy. The quality of their pass-rush is likely to be solely dictated by Grady Jarrett's ability to bounce back from an uncharacteristically mediocre season, the grace of Ebiketie's transition to the pros and Marlon Davidson finally taking a real step forward after an unassuming start to his career. Their receiving corps next to London-who has been mighty impressive in the offseason program-features a couple of underwhelming holdovers from last year's team (Olmide Zaccheaus, Frank Darby), a perennial training camp star who has never quite put it together in the regular season (Bryan Edwards) and a convoy of journeyman (Damiere Byrd, KeeSean Johnson, Cameron Batson) that have only proven they're good for the occasional splash play or two. Banking on Cordarrelle Patterson to be a productive rusher for a 2nd straight year is a bit of a risk considering his age (31). The safety situation without Harmon in the mix is pretty concerning as Richie Grant-who struggled as a rookie, Jaylin Hawkins-who has only logged 6 career starts in his previous 2 NFL seasons and Dean Marlowe-a career backup who was below average in 9 starts last year with the Lions are in the mix for the 2 starting spots. And of course, the battle for the open quarterback spot is currently between the middling vet Marcus Mariota and athletic yet raw rookie Desmond Ridder.
When it's all said and done, Arthur Smith and Dean Pees are going to have to work their asses off to overcome the clear talent hurdle they have to deal (this is the worst roster in the division by a considerable margin) and get this team to an even semi-respectable level.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting Something Out of the Quarterback Position
Matt Ryan's 14-year stint as the Falcons quarterback came to an end in late March when both sides agreed it was time for him to move onto greener pastures. Through a variety of factors including the Falcons draft position (#8 overall) and the makeup of this year's quarterback class, the Falcons decided to go the conservative stopgap route when looking for Ryan's replacement- which netted a cheap veteran that just happened to have ample experience running Arthur Smith's offense in Mariota and a 3rd round rookie in Ridder whose size/physical tools combined with the widespread belief that he was being held back in a University of Cincinnati offense that didn't ask much of their QB's made him this class most popular dark horse selection.
As per tradition when a team decides to go bargain shopping for quarterbacks, both guys have plenty of question marks attached to them. In the case of Mariota, he's effectively served as a gadget player for the Raiders over the past 2 seasons (he threw only 30 passes during that time) and was a pretty subpar starter during his 5 seasons with the Titans (his career record in the games that he started is 29-32) that often struggled to be anything more than a passable game manager. As for Ridder, he ran a very simple offense in college and has struggled with accuracy, decision-making and holding onto the ball for too long at times.
Whoever ends up winning the QB competition is being asked to do something pretty attainable for someone that was good enough to make it to the NFL and compete for a starting job: Just be good enough to make the offense functional. Despite the legit questions around each of these guy's individual ability, the team can take solace in the fact that the supporting cast won't be making their quarterback's job more difficult. The rushing game should be decent regardless of whether the shifty Patterson or the powerful, hard-running rookie Allegier ends up serving as the primary back, their offensive line is solid enough to ensure that they won't get run over on most dropbacks and despite concerns over the depth of their pass-catchers, London and Pitts should be able to do enough to earn their QB's trust and keep the passing game afloat. Having a division that features two of the league's best defenses in the Bucs and Saints and a schedule that also features showdowns with the 49ers, Rams, Ravens, Steelers, Browns and Bengals could be enough to prevent this dream from becoming a reality, so Mariota and/or Ridder are certainly going to be tested on their journey to keep the long-running standard of this Falcons offense being capable enough to score 23-26 points per game in tact.
Bottom Line:
With the large talent gaps throughout their roster, puzzling mixture of older and younger players and uninspiring QB situation, the Falcons are stuck in the no man's land and it would be a shock if they finished higher than 3rd in this division.
Carolina Panthers
2021 Record: 5-12 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Matt Rhule (3rd season)
Notable Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, G Austin Corbett, S Xavier Woods
Notable Departures: OLB Hasson Reddick, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Cam Newton
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Matt Rhule is Probably Going to Get Fired by the End of the Year
Throwing OC Joe Brady under the bus late last year was enough to buy Rhule-who has registered consecutive 5-win seasons and an overall record of 7-22 since the team sat at 3-2 going into Week 6 of the 2020 season-at least part of a 3rd season as Panthers head coach. Unless the long-awaited return of Ben McAdoo to the offensive coordinating/playcalling ranks proves to be the missing piece they needed to start really humming, the end of the road for Rhule in the house that Sir Purr built is well within sight. So far, Rhule has done nothing to disprove that he's anything more than just the latest babbling blowhard college coach that somehow swindled a vulnerable NFL operation (in this case, a Panthers team that had a green owner that had just bought the team a year prior) into giving him a job in the pros. While some injury woes and an unclear plan at QB are partially to blame for their struggles over the past 2 seasons, the lack of discipline and heart Rhule has instilled in this team is largely responsible for their poor performances. Fiery, ra-ra bullshit alone may get the job when you're facing a 3-6 Oklahoma State team at home in mid-October, but this is a league where actual X and O's proficiency, rigorous game planning and in-game situational awareness are all required to win and Rhule has yet to demonstrate that he is even OK at any of these things.
If/when Rhule gest axed, Carolina will immediately become one of the hottest openings in the league. Their young corps has a ton of potential (DJ Moore, Taylor Moton, Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Jeremey Chinn, Jaycee Horn, rookie tackle Ikem Ekwonu, maybe Christian McCaffery if he can still walk/stand by the time 2023 rolls around) and since Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are both free agents after this season, the new coach would have the freedom to do whatever the hell they please at quarterback.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Christian McCaffery's Health
If the local Panthers media and majority of fantasy football players are any indication of the consensus opinion, nobody is at all concerned about McCaffery's durability heading into 2022. Takes built around points like "he's just caught some bad breaks" and "he hasn't blown out his knee or torn an Achilles" are commonplace around the McCaffery discourse. My question is how the hell can you be so cavalier about this potentially massive issue? McCaffery has spent the vast majority of the past 2 seasons on the shelf and as a running back who received a massive workload during his final 2 seasons at Stanford in 2015-16 and his initial 3 pro seasons in 2017-19, he's the ideal candidate to remain a heightened injury risk moving forward.
Barring the occasional wild outlier like Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and LaDainian Tomlinson, bellcow running backs have a tendency to break down at some point. Getting pummeled on 350-400 touches per year does wonders for wearing the human body down and typically when the injuries start to occur as a result of all those years of close-quarter beatings, they don't stop until somebody retires. Given that McCaffery has sustained shoulder, hamstring and ankle injuries that have caused him to miss 22 games over the past 2 seasons, this process could already be underway.
To put it as simply as possible: If McCaffery can buck this troubling trend that's taken shape over the past 2 seasons: he'll be a force behind a conceivably improved offensive line with the best quarterback he's played with since 2017-era Cam Newton. If it continues, this offense becomes a whole lot less dynamic, a 3rd straight 5-win season (or worse) becomes much more likely and the practice of downplaying his health issues becomes that much harder to do.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Baker Mayfield Going on a Revenge Tour
The circumstances that ended Mayfield's tenure with the Browns are bullshit. Despite being somewhat responsible for providing the team with its greatest success since they were brought back into the league in 1999 during the 2020 season and giving them the stability at the quarterback spot that they had been desperately seeking for 20+ years, 1 disappointing season where he was playing through a major shoulder injury for the latter 80% of the slate was all it took for the Browns organization to give up on him. Discarding him for a serial sexual predator in Deshaun Watson only makes the Browns treatment of him even more insulting.
As anybody who's ever heard and/or saw him speak in front of a podium before knows, Mayfield's persona is built around being doubted and slighted and using these things as motivation to succeed. He got no scholarship offers out of high school, so he decided to walk on at Texas Tech-where he ended up getting the starting job as a true freshman and winning 8 games for then-new HC Kliff Kingsbury. He didn't feel Texas Tech's coaching staff believed in him, so he transferred to Oklahoma-where he started for 3 seasons and eventually won the Heisman Trophy. He spent the pre-draft process in 2018 facing a string of doubts about his size and ability to run an NFL offense, but after some strong workouts he ended up launching himself all the way up to the #1 pick. After a poor sophomore season with Freddie Kitchens at the helm that saw people calling him a bust, Mayfield rebounded in a big way and earned the Browns a huge playoff win over the Steelers and had the Browns damn close to beating the Chiefs on the final drive of their Divisional Round matchup at Arrowhead. Being called an immature dink who can't lead a team, getting replaced by somebody with absolutely reprehensible character in Watson and effectively being given away by Cleveland shortly before training camp sounds like the perfect setup for Mayfield's next motivation-driven success story.
Now, actually turning this move to the Panthers into a triumph is going to be difficult. Mayfield didn't get traded until July 6th, which means he only had a few weeks until training camp started to learn a new offense and build chemistry with a new group of receivers. But at the same time, it's not exactly impossible either. The Panthers offensive line should be decent now that Austin Corbett, Bradley Bozeman and Ikem Ekonwu are joining the reliably great Moton upfront, having a receiver that's as adaptable and talented as Moore leading the charge should make the transition easier and the beautiful reality is that this team has gotten such shit QB play over the bulk of the past 4 seasons that just about anything above Mayfield's average will be a significant upgrade. If Mayfield can find a way to make this transition to Carolina work under these poor circumstances, it will be the greatest moral and spite-fueled professional triumph that he's ever accomplished.
Bottom Line:
Regardless of McCaffery's availability throughout the year, Mayfield's lack of an opportunity to properly learn the offense along with Rhule's continued poor coaching are likely going to be enough to kill any shot the Panthers have of being good.
New Orleans Saints
2021 Record: 9-8 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dennis Allen (1st season)
Notable Additions: S Tyrann Mathieu, WR Jarvis Landry, QB Andy Dalton
Notable Departures: T Terron Armstead, S Marcus Williams, S Malcolm Jenkins (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Being Able to Maintain Continuity with Their Staff
Losing Sean Payton to a sudden resignation in January was devastating to the Saints organization. While Payton had his issues during the playoffs throughout his career, the Saints were a well-coached, competitive team for the majority of his 16-year tenure and bringing a Super Bowl to that city after Hurricane Katrina has earned him permanent legend status in New Orleans. Considering when Payton resigned (late January) and how well-oiled the operation alongside him was from top to bottom, promoting from within felt like the right choice. Mickey Loomis and Gayle Benson agreed when they promoted longtime DC Dennis Allen to HC in February. Allen was the right choice among the remaining Saints staff for the gig since he was integral to fixing a defense that was in shambles when he arrived to replace Rob Ryan in 2015 and had some head coaching experience underneath his belt (although he probably would prefer to forget his dismal 8-28 stint as the Raiders HC from 2012-14).
The benefit the Saints get from Allen staying and Allen himself gets in his 2nd head coaching stint is that the staff consists of guys that have been coaching together forever. Pete Carmichael, Kris Richard, Ryan Nielsen, Ronald Curry, Brian Young, Joel Thomas, Michael Hodges and even new OL coach Doug Marrone have all worked alongside Allen for multiple years in the past in New Orleans. About the only real differences between the 2021 Saints and the 2022 Saints staff are that Allen has switched offices, Carmichael is calling plays now, Richard and Nielsen are spliting DC duties and organizational outsider Kodi Burns-who coached at Auburn and Tennessee in recent years-is the new WR coach. These guys know what to expect from other and know how to work together and I believe the trust and continuity that exists among this staff will allow the Saints to play at a similar level as they did under Payton last season.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Trotting Out Jameis Winston at Quarterback for a 2nd Year
Would Jimmy Garoppolo make more sense for a team that has a roster that's capable of winning now and a great defense that can support having a game manager at quarterback? Yes, but that would be much less responsible and far less fun than bringing back Winston for another season.
Make no mistake: This is still 100% Winston's team. Andy Dalton was just brought in so they could have a legit backup in case something goes really haywire, and Taysom Hill could go back to his true calling of being a gadget player with an incredible nickname. Loomis and this coaching staff believe in Winston and he'll be given every opportunity to prove if he's capable of being the guy or not.
The problems with having Winston at quarterback are largely the same as always: The man is a certified fearless gunslinger that is completely unconcerned with trivial little things like where the defenders are or where the ball lands. He just chucks the ball downfield and hopes somebody on his team comes down with it.
In Winston's defense, he only threw 3 picks in his 7 starts before tearing his ACL last year (he barely moves when he throws, so I'm not overly concerned with how this will affect his playing ability) However, you can't just sit back and trust Winston to do what he did a year ago. Chaos is his brand, and nobody would blink an eye if he chucked 4 layup INT's in Week 1 versus the Falcons after showing an unusual degree of discipline during the last 7 occasions he took the field. Starting Winson is a dangerous dance that could yield glory or brutal death at any moment and whatever the results of this particular 17-week samba are will likely go a long way in dictating their fate in 2022.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Steady Production from Their WR Corps
With Michael Thomas missing the entire season and a whopping 3 different QB's earning time under center (Winston, Hill, Ian Book), the Saints WR corps had a hard time producing in 2021. Marquez Callaway ended up being the team's leading receiver with only 698 YDS and the only other WR that even cleared 400 YDS was kick returner/deep ball specialist Deonte Harris-who registered 570 YDS in 13 games. Considering the degree of output from their top targets, it's not exactly surprising to find out that they had the bottom ranked passing offense.
Their 2021 struggles appeared to finally be the breaking point for Loomis as he finally brought in some intriguing, much-needed reinforcements at WR after ignoring their depth issues for the better part of the last half decade. The clear headliner of the new additions is rookie Chris Olave-who Loomis traded up to land at #12 overall. A good amount of draftniks felt he was WR1 in this class and if his camp performances are any indication, he very well could be. Olave is a terrific route runner, has the kind of speed that allows to make plays at any level of the field and he's a slippery son of a bitch that can make people miss in space. If he can gel with Winston, he could be a serious playmaker right away.
The sentimental veteran addition came in the form of Louisiana native/LSU grad Jarvis Landry. Landry's play has taken a noticeable dip in each of the past 2 seasons as he's battled injuries and the consequences of taking beatings in the slot, but it's possible that his homecoming and a less demanding role brings some degree of rejuvenation for the nearly 30-year-old.
Then there's of course the wild card that could really open up this unit or continue to hold them back: Thomas. The man who was once widely viewed as the best WR in the league has been largely MIA with injuries for the past 2 seasons, so nobody really knows where he's at or what he can give at this point. Things definitely aren't off to the rosiest start though as Thomas hasn't appeared in either of the team's preseason games thus far and is reportedly dealing with a hamstring injury. At this point, any real clarity about Thomas would be a plus, but until then the "what if's" and "if only's" are going to continue to surround him as long as his status remains in limbo.
Considering where they were a season ago, a significant improvement relative to where they were feels inevitable even if only Olave and Landry actually make onto the field. The real million-dollar question is if this duo along with their cohorts including Callaway and Harris can do enough to bring this group from painfully inept to somewhat respectable in just 1 years' time.
Bottom Line:
Despite a couple of key roster losses (Marcus Williams, Terron Armstead) and some question marks at quarterback, their strong top-to-bottom continuity and excellent defense could be enough for the Saints to sneak into a Wild Card spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 Record: 13-4 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (1st season)
Notable Additions: G Shaq Mason, DT Akiem Hicks, WR Russell Gage
Notable Departures: G Ali Marpet (retired), G Alex Cappa, TE Rob Gronkowski (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Tom Brady Returned from His 5-minute Offseason Retirement
That fucking snake Brady had everybody convinced that he was actually going to retire for a second there. But as soon all the tributes had poured in and debates about his legacy had been had, Brady realized he hated his family and could get Bruce Arians fired if he decided to return, so he went ahead and came back. Nobody is happier about this development than Bucs. They were staring down the barrel of having to trade for Carson Wentz or Baker Mayfield or endure a camp battle between Kyle Trask and Blaine Gabbert until Brady delayed the start of the team's bleaker next chapter. The hunt for ring #3 is officially back on now that the ageless wonder is back in and everybody in the league should be scared.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Interior Offensive Line
When people have the gall to actually criticize Brady's play on the field for reasons that don't involve the cheating scandals, his handling of effective interior pass-rushing is the #1 thing that's brought up. When the pocket collapses and he can't get the ball out quickly like he likes to, Brady takes sacks and gets unusually uncomfortable under center. This is the exact formula that teams like the 2015 Broncos and 2010 Jets used to knock Brady off his mark and hand him painful playoff losses.
Shortly after Brady unretired, he was greeted with some unpleasant news in Tampa: Both of his starting guards from 2020-21 were gone. Disgustingly underrated perennial standout Ali Marpet decided to retire at age 29 and the quietly solid Alex Cappa left for the reigning AFC champion Bengals.
Initially, it seemed like the problem was quickly solved when Bill Belichick inexplicably did TB12 a major solid by trading Shaq Mason to Tampa for pennies on the dollar (1 5th round pick, which was the same compensation that the Cardinals just sent to Buffalo in exchange for Cody Ford-who isn't even a 1/1,00th of the player that Mason is). Mason has intimate knowledge of Brady's tendencies and also happens to be one of the filthiest run-blockers in the league, making this an absolute slam dunk replacement for Marpet on the left side.
Then, things started to take a turn for the worst when o-line anchor/prominent Brady confidante Ryan Jensen went down with an ACL tear at the start of camp. Losing a star lineman upfront before a single meaningful snap is played-particularly when that guy is responsible for snapping the ball, setting the protections and making sure Brady doesn't killed by the interior line-could turn out to be a brewing catastrophe for this organization.
Making matters worse is Jensen's replacement is currently slated to be Robert Hainsey. Hainsey is a 2nd year player with 0 career starts and no experience playing center in meaningful game situations (he played tackle at Notre Dame and was converted to center during last year's training camp). Brady is going to send his ass to the practice squad as soon as screws up a few snaps or gets a handful of false starts.
Furthering Brady's delight with the personnel is the presence of rookie Luke Goedeke at right guard. Goedeke is a converted tackle with a much safer floor than Hainsey, but his weakness as a player is handling pass-rushing moves and that should be enough to make Brady really nervous in certain matchups.
To get through this season, Brady is going to have to hope that Mason can stay healthy and teach the young kids how to play their positions and what it takes to play with him. And if neither of those things work out by the halfway point, Brady just might hand over the keys to Gabbert or Trask and go back to getting yelled at by Gisele full-time because at least that pain doesn't involve getting repeatedly body slammed by 315-335 lb men once a week for 4-5 straight months.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Brady's Relationships with the Coaching Staff and His Teammates
From a pure football standpoint, the Bucs are going to be just fine. Todd Bowles is a great, respected coach who will thrive in an environment that is inherently much more functional than what he had during his time as the Jets HC, newcomer Russell Gage will be able to admirably fill-in for the injured Chris Godwin-who likely won't return until October or November as he continues to rehab from the ACL tear he suffered last December-as the team's primary outside/slot swing WR and despite losing a promising young safety in Jordan Whitehead to the Jets in free agency, their loaded defense ultimately got even better by swapping out Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul for Akeim Hicks and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.
So what could possibly stand in the way of the Bucs plowing through their way through the weakened NFC and getting an opportunity to win their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years? The same man that brought them that championship in 2020 and will have them in the mix yet again in 2022.
On a game-to-game basis, Brady will still show up. He's too much of a competitor and too naturally talented at playing quarterback to fully phone it in. What Brady will do however is let his dissatisfaction with the operation consume him and that shit will weigh on him to the point where he becomes disengaged enough to grant a frisky opponent the opportunity to pop him in the playoffs without too much difficulty. For an example of this phenomenon in action, look no further than the 2019 Patriots. Before they even stepped on the field that year, it became evident that Brady had finally had enough of Belichick's shit and that led to Brady coasting by his standards. Ultimately, the team went 12-4 behind a very pedestrian Brady season (4,057 YDS/24 TD's/8 INT's/60.8 CMP%) before they got KO'd by the Titans in the Wild Card round.
If you fancy yourself a football conspiracy theorist and read Brady's offseason activity a certain way, you could reach the conclusion that 2022 is shaping up to be an encore of 2019. The tampering report that was brought on by Brian Flores' damning, deeply thorough lawsuit against the Dolphins following his firing in January indicated that Brady was looking to get traded there following the 2021 season, Brady seemingly reluctantly returned to the Bucs after they agreed to remove his nemesis Bruce Arians from the head coaching post for having the nerve to call plays/contribute to the offensive gameplan like he did in his previous 25 years of coaching, he's been alarmingly blase about showing up to OTA's and getting reps during camp and the combination of the aforementioned interior offensive line woes, his good pal Rob Gronkowski being gone and his clear favorite WR Godwin being on the shelf for an undisclosed amount of time could be causing him to have a lack of faith in the operation. If Brady is indeed just going to play out the string in Tampa before he chooses a new football home or retires for real in 2023, that will be a sign that he doesn't respect or care about this staff or his teammates. So as this season approaches, Bowles, Byron Leftwich, the other assistants and every guy on this roster should kiss Brady's ass until their lips fall off. The team's goal of earning the franchise their 3rd Lombardi Trophy has practically zero chance of being met unless Brady fully buys into the operation by early October at the latest and this team has their goals set too high to accept anything less than getting back to the top of the mountain.
Bottom Line:
The Bucs have too much of a talent advantage to not win this division. How things go beyond that will be up to how engaged #12 is.
Projected Standings:
1.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
2.New Orleans Saints (9-8)
3.Carolina Panthers (6-11)
4.Atlanta Falcons (5-12)
