The annual tidal wave of Fantasy Football drafts is quickly approaching as both August and the NFL preseason slate enter their final stages. In honor of this event that will help build the foundation of a winner or punch the first hole on a ticket to the misery-riddled confines of a given league's basement, it's time for me to finally throw my hat into the take ring for 2022. Today, I'll be exploring the topic of overvalued players. Below, you'll find my picks for the players (or in the case of defense/special teams, team) at each major position that I believe provide the worst value at their current draft position. Enjoy and feel free to post your own lists in the comment section.
Quarterback: Kyler Murray (Cardinals) (ADP: Yahoo!: 59.2, ESPN: 62.4)
The king of independent study gets to celebrate his massive new deal by starting the 2022 campaign down his top 2 receivers from a year ago (DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the 1st 6 games, Christian Kirk left for Jacksonville in free agency), facing a mounting level of pressure from the organization after they showed some doubts about his long-term viability as a franchise QB during the negotiation process for said massive contract extension and having to build chemistry with a new top wideout in Marquise Brown. These football and mental hurdles should ding Murray's already not overly impressive passing stats (3,787 passing YDS/24 TD/10 INT was his output last season) and unless he suddenly returns to his 2020 rushing attempt level (133-which is over 40 more totes than he had in either of his other 2 NFL seasons), he won't be able to make up for that statistical regression with his feet. The steady-ish floor will keep him firmly on the QB1 tier, but it would be pretty silly to spend a late 5th/early 6th round pick on an elite fantasy player that appears to be hurdling towards an underwhelming season.
Also in the Running: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Russell Wilson (Broncos), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
Running Back: Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 20.9, ESPN: 21.5)
A back who racked up just a hair over 1,200 scrimmage YDS and 10 TD's in the previous season going in the latter stages of the 2nd round is a depressing encapuslation of how thin the RB ranks are at the moment. Betting on Fournette to even replicate this unassuming level of productivity in 2022 is an unnesscary dice roll to take at such a crucial juncture of the draft. As rosy as the backfield touch share situation appears to be for him right now with middling veteran Gio Bernard and rookie Rachaad White serving as the backups, Forunette is a notoriously inconsistent back (particularly as a pass-catcher) who recently made headlines by showing up to May's mini-camp out of shape and could struggle to find space to run behind an overhauled offensive line that's lost 3 starters (Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury in training camp, Ali Marpet to retirement, Alex Cappa to free agency) since the Bucs last took the field for a meaningful game in January.
Also in the Running: Christian McCaffery (Panthers), D'Andre Swift (Lions), James Conner (Cardinals)
Wide Receiver: Tee Higgins (Bengals) (ADP: Yahoo!: 30.4, ESPN: 32.6)
Higgins is an exciting young player on a really good offense that has a steady floor of about 1,000 YDS/5 TD and could become an elite WR1 if Ja'Marr Chase gets sidelined at any point. However, there are simply too many mouths to feed in a fully loaded Bengals offense to justify taking Higgins in the middle of the 3rd round-particularly when there are multiple WR's (Michael Pittman Jr., A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin) that are the uncontested top options on their team and reap all the benefits that come with that rarified status (higher target share, reception/yardage totals) going directly after him.
Also in the Running: Deebo Samuel (49ers), Diontae Johnson (Steelers), Jerry Jeudy (Broncos)
Tight End: Dalton Schultz (Cowboys) (Yahoo!: 56.5, ESPN: 64.7)
Schultz falls into the dreaded "nice player, wrong price" category. While it's understandable to believe that a guy that's coming off a career year (78 REC/808 YDS/8 TD's) and is in line for a bigger role now that Amari Cooper is off the Cowboys roster can be a productive fantasy asset this season, Schultz's ascent to the top of the non-Kelce/Andrews/Kittle tier of TE's in recent months feels more like an impulsive phenomenon brought on by the terrible positional depth than an actual belief in his potential.
Also in the Running: Dawson Knox (Bills), T.J. Hockenson (Lions), Albert Okwuegbunam (Broncos)
Defense/Special Teams: Cowboys (Yahoo!: 125.4 ESPN: 135.7)
Randy Gregory is gone. Trevon Diggs isn't going to get 11 INT's again. Their offense has gotten worse-particularly upfront. Micah Parsons is probably going to get a lot more attention in year #2 now that teams know what he's capable of in the NFL. This is a drawn-out way of saying that Dan Quinn is going to have a really difficult time trying to get this group back into the elite tier of defenses this year and if he fails that mission, this group isn't going to have much fantasy value.
Also in the Running: Saints, Broncos, Patriots
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