Baltimore Ravens
2021 Record: 8-9 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (15th season)
Notable Additions: S Marcus Williams, T Morgan Moses, DT Michael Pierce
Notable Departures: WR Marquise Brown, S DeShon Elliott, P Sam Koch (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Their Roster is Healthy and Upgraded Heading into the Season
The final remnants of the surreal hellscape that was the Ravens 2021 season are almost gone. At this stage of training camp, only Ronnie Stanley, Marcus Peters, Tyus Bowser, and Gus Edwards remain on the PUP list as they rehab from the brutal injuries they suffered in the runup to or during the season. Of that group, only Bowser-who got Achilles surgery in January after sustaining a tear in the season finale against the Steelers-seems like a longshot to not be on the field by the beginning of October. This is music to the ears of John Harbaugh and his staff as they finished the 2021 season with a whopping 18 guys on IR (in addition to the aforementioned PUP guys, Marlon Humphrey, Patrick Ricard, Justice Hill, Tyre Phillips, Daelin Hayes and J.K Dobbins were among the current Ravens on that list). Trying to win games with a roster that not only had a rash of season-ending injuries to most of their best players, but lost other key pieces for long stretches (Lamar Jackson missed 5 games including the last 3) is brutally hard and having those guys (mostly) ready to go must feel like the team is returning to playing on a level playing field after playing with 1 arm tied behind their back for all of 2021.
On top of the return of so many key guys, the Ravens went out and added some really nice pieces to the fold that should immediately make an impact. The splashiest free agent get of the bunch was elite safety Marcus Williams. Putting a rangey ballhawk who can blow up plays from sideline to sideline next to a thumper in Chuck Clark immediately gives the Ravens one of the scariest safety tandems in the league.
After the retirement of Alejandro Villaneuva in late March, the Ravens were quick to tap Morgan Moses as his replacement. While Moses lacks Villanueva's ability to play both tackle spots, he's a steadier presence on the line that's less suspectable to getting burned by crafty edge rushers and has prior experience with zone blocking concepts after spending last year with the Jets-where he put together another quietly solid year and reaffirmed that he's one of the league's most underrated run blockers.
Wrapping up the veteran portion of the additions was a buy-low deal on Kyle Fuller. Fuller was so bad with the Broncos last year that the Bears retroactively looked smart for cutting him out of the blue earlier that spring. If a return to form is possible, it should materialize in a low-ish leverage role as a subpackage option next to the great Humphrey and Peters.
In addition to this solid free agency haul, the Ravens also put together a draft class that's overflowing with exciting prospects. Kyle Hamiliton is a high floor/high ceiling chess piece that can be deployed at either safety spot, slot corner or inside linebacker, Tyler Linderbaum has the polish, strength and athleticism to be this year's Creed Humphrey, Travis Jones' pass-rushing prowess and rare speed for a 333lb man could add a new dimension to a d-line interior that otherwise consists of terrific run defenders (Calias Campbell, Michael Pierce- who returns to Baltimore after 2 seasons in Minnesota), David Ojabo is an otherworldly athlete with incredible pass-rushing tools that could be a game-changer on the edge if DC Mike Macdonald can refine his off-the-charts intangibles into a complete game and their day 3 picks were mostly intriguing fliers (tackle Daniel Faalele, cornerbacks Jayln Armour-Davis and Damarion Williams, tight ends Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar) that profile as great athletes that struggle with consistency and technique or in the case of Alabama product Armour-Davis, a physical corner with great ball skills that has struggled to stay healthy. Eric DeCosta has yet to have a signature draft class of his own since he took over for Ozzie Newsome in 2019, but if a good chunk of these players can fully unlock their potential in the pros, this very well could be the year that finally happens.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Wide Receiver Situation
Trading Marquise Brown to the Cardinals for a 1st round pick was the right move for the Ravens. Mark Andrews is firmly entrenched as the top target in this passing offense and Brown's play is far too inconsistent to warrant the $15-20 mil per year payday he'l likely be seeking after his rookie deal expires after the 2023 season. If Linderbaum ends up being the rock-solid NFL center he's widely projected to be and punter Jordan Stout-who was selected with the extra 4th round pick the Ravens got from the Bills when they agreed to trade down 2 picks to #25-is the long-term replacement for the retired franchise cornerstone Sam Koch, the deal will turn into a grand slam.
As much as I support the move and believe Brown is a highly overrated player, it's hard to get on board with the group of WR's they're trotting out in 2022. At the bare minimum, Brown was a competent starter who is capable of making splash plays at any given time. With Brown and Sammy Watkins gone, there's no receiver in the locker room that even fits that modest profile.
2021 1st round pick Rashod Bateman is the de facto #1 on draft position alone. While he looked alright in 12 games as a rookie (46 REC/515 YDS/1 TD on 68 targets), nothing about his play screamed "he's ready to be a #1 WR in his 2nd season!". Having a fully loaded supporting cast back after dealing with last season's skeleton crew should make things easier for him to do his job but expecting him to fare well against the likes of Denzel Ward, Chidobe Awuize and Mike Hilton right away isn't a realistic goal.
Locked to into the #2 role based on seniority is their return specialist Devin Duvernay. He's an explosive athlete who was solid at the University of Texas as a full-time starting wideout and has the wiggle/speed combo to make plays in the open field at this level, but he only has 473 receiving YDS through 2 seasons and struggled to get playing time last year when guys were banged up.
The rest of the depth chart is a hodgepodge of anonymous deep ball specialists (James Proche), undrafted rookies/practice squaders (Binjimen Victor, Jaylon Moore, Slade Bolden, Bailey Gaither, Makai Polk) and complete wild cards (2021 4th round pick Tylan Wallace-who only caught 2 passes for 23 YDS as a rookie). Getting any degree of consistent contributions out of them would be a very nice surprise. Fully expect Jackson to bless Andrews with a massive target share and their passing attack to become absolutely useless if Andrews happens to miss any amount of time with an injury.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Lamar Jackson Rounding Out His Game
The only person happier about the news of Kyler Murray's extension than Murray himself had to be Jackson. Murray has a 22-24-1 overall record, 1 playoff appearance/winning season, 2 Pro Bowls and a profound love for Call of Duty to his name and he just got a deal that's going to pay him $160 mil guaranteed over the next 5 seasons. Jackson is 38-15 as a starter (with 7 of those losses coming during last season's injury-ravaged regular season campaign), the only QB in the NFL history to have 2 1,000+ YD rushing seasons, was league MVP in 2019 and has only missed the playoffs in 1 of his 4 NFL seasons. If Murray can get $160 mil guaranteed with his subpar resume, there's no reason Jackson can't get at least $200 mil with all he's accomplished so far.
Jackson has bet on himself every step of the way by refusing to sign an extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal. If he shows out this season and gets the Ravens back on track after a brutally unlucky 2021 campaign, he'll earn a whole lot of W's for his team and himself a whole lot of money.
In order for Jackson to maximize the dollar amount of his deal and the Ravens to have their best shot of making a deep playoff run, he's going to have to become a more consistent passer. His accuracy, footwork and poise when he steps back to pass are downright brilliant at times, but there are others where he shows poor touch/ball placement and has some wonky releases that lead to head-scratching incompletions that other top QB's rarely have. Rushing with the possibility of making some big play through the air makes Jackson a uniquely dangerous weapon at quarterback. Being able to reliably torch people with his arm and his legs would make him and the Ravens downright unstoppable.
Bottom Line:
After last year's stunning display of shit luck, the Football Gods owe the Ravens some good fortune. I believe they will get it in spades and the league will quickly be reminded of just how talented this team is when they're at full strength.
Cincinnati Bengals
2021 Record: 10-7 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (4th season)
Notable Additions: T La'el Collins, G Alex Cappa, C Ted Karras
Notable Departures: TE C.J. Uzomah, T Riley Reiff, DT Larry Ogunjobi
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Aggressively Addressed the Offensive Line in the Offseason
Mike Brown opening up his pockets in back-to-back offseasons is such a pleasant, if not shocking sight to behold. I guess having an exciting young corps headlined by a real franchise quarterback, winning a playoff game for the first time since 1990 and reaching the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988 is a perfectly good reason to loosen the old purse strings.
The primary target of Brown's 2022 spending was offensive line, which is the right response to have after watching Joe Burrow get destroyed by opposing front 7's throughout the playoffs and that group's poor play arguably being the biggest reason the team fell short of winning the Super Bowl.
In a class that almost completely lacked splashy names at the spots where they needed help (everywhere but left tackle), Brown made a point to target solid players who seemed to have smaller markets. This approach landed him a pretty good haul of Alex Cappa-who was part of the Bucs o-line renaissance over the past 2 seasons, Ted Karras-a versatile interior lineman with tons of playoff experience from his time with the Patriots and La'el Collins-who has been one of the best right tackles in the league over the past 5 seasons Being able to lock up gave who have balanced skills sets and solid resumes to reasonable deals that doesn't put too much of a burden on their future cap situation-which is vital considering how much they're going to have to pay Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and current holdout Jessie Bates to stay with them-is just the cherry on top of some well-placed free agent spending.
While things aren't exactly perfect with this group as left guard is still unsettled (Jackson Carman is currently the penciled-in starter, but that could change if more materializes from the rape/statutory rape allegation that was brought upon him in the spring-which would force rookie tackle convert Cordell Volson into the lineup) and the durability of left tackle Jonah Williams remains a major point of concern, Brown took some aggressive, necessary step towards stabilizing the unit and minimizing the chances of Burrow becoming the next talented player that gets prematurely knocked out of the league on account of terrible offensive line play.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Last Season's Success Getting to Their Heads
From a raw talent standpoint, the Bengals have one of the brightest futures in the league. They have a franchise quarterback, loaded receiver core, hard-nosed bellcow back, a frisky defense that can get after the quarterback and generate takeaways at a high clip and nearly all of their best players are either just entering their primes or young guys that conceivably haven't even sniffed the peak of their powers yet. There is however, one thing that can come in and easily cancel out all that promise: A shitty mindset.
Achieving success in professional sports at a young age can be a double-edged sword. Obviously gaining big game experience can be extremely valuable for a player's development and preparation habits, but it can also breed this dangerous sense of entitlement where guys expect a run to happen every year simply because it happened once before. That type of hubris can crush you-particularly in the NFL where a lot of things needs to go right in the execution/matchup draw/in-game luck department to make one run, let alone achieve sustained excellence in the league. Any player that fails to understand the fleeting, hard-earned nature of success in the NFL isn't likely to achieve any meaningful amount of it.
To be fair to the Bengals, there is no evidence out there that suggests they are going to succumb to this problem, but this is a super young roster with only a handful of guys (Trey Hendrickson, Mike Hilton, Vonn Bell, Karras, Cappa) that have even had a little bit of true success in the pros prior to last season, so the concern over the potential of this materializing is going to be on the table until the moment they prove otherwise.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Staying Focused and Building on Last Year's Incredible Run
Getting that close to the peak of the sports world and going home empty-handed is devastating. The greats let that heartbreak eat at them until they get another chance to taste the sweet nectar of victory, but unfortunately some of them never will. While actually getting to the top is a complicated endeavor that isn't fully in the hands of an individual or team, learning from past mistakes and putting in the right amount of hard work is certainly going to increase the odds of somebody getting another crack at earning a title.
In the case of the Bengals, having leaders in Burrow, Chase, Bell and Tee Higgins that won titles at the college level and a couple of guys (Karras, Cappa) that have won Super Bowls around forms a pretty good foundation in that locker room. The more guys that have even somewhat of a clue of what it's like to break through and stake your claim as the greatest team in your league, the better. When the guys at the top are leading the charge by watching film, emphasizing the little things in practice, etc and creating a culture where execution, preparation and accountability in the pursuit of a championship are emphasized, you're likely going to have a team that is hungry to win and will do everything in their power to try and make it happen.
The same thing applies to the performance of their coaching staff. They can't just sit back and hope that the unbelievable potential of their roster is enough for them be perennial contenders. The game-planning needs to be better. The playcalling and personnel substitutions needs to be better (playing Joe Mixon over Samjae Perine in 3rd down situations would be a good place to start). Their discipline on both sides of the ball needs to be better. Nobody thought much of Zac Taylor, Lou Anarumo and Brian Callahan ahead of last season and that disrespect will return if they come out and underwhelm/get burned by the mistakes that didn't cost them last year in 2022.
Bottom Line:
Considering their offensive line upgrades, very minimal roster turnover and sheer volume of viable ascending or prime year talent they have on both sides of the ball, the Bengals should be back in contention in 2022.
Cleveland Browns
2021 Record: 8-9 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (3rd season)
Notable Additions: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Amari Cooper, C Ethan Pocic
Notable Departures: QB Baker Mayfield, WR Jarvis Landry, C J.C. Tretter
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Nothing
Finding no reason for joy, excitement or anything besides pure fucking misery has been the emotional default for Browns fans approximately 90% of the time since they were resurrected in 1999. But this time it's a bit different because the homewrecking wasn't caused by making a bad draft pick or hiring the wrong coach. The Browns braintrust (Jimmy Haslam, Andrew Berry, Kevin Stefanski) somehow thought it was in the best interest of the team to trade 6 total draft picks including their 1st rounders from 2022-24 for Deshaun Watson and ink him to a FULLY GUARANTEED $230 mil deal that made him the highest paid NFL player in history.
Even if you're the kind of person that has no qualms about what Watson was accused of doing to those 30 or so Houston-area massage therapists or believe these women are involved in some kind of conspiracy to soil his good name because he didn't want to play for the Texans anymore, can you say with a straight face that it was in the best interest of the franchise to stake their future on a man that is heading towards an indefinite suspension and currently hasn't played in an NFL game in almost 2 years? Watson is an unbelievable talent with a special dual-threat skill set that is extremely difficult to contain, but what good is any of that if he's BARRED FROM PLAYING THE GAME. Potentially compromising the future of a team that went to the playoffs 2 years ago and reeled off 8 wins last year despite being extremely banged up all season long for the prospect of maybe getting the services of an athletically gifted serial sexual predator is an incredible act of self-sabotage, so kudos to you Browns for your continued commitment to be being world class bozos.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Team Acquired and Handsomely Paid a Serial Sexual Predator to Be Their Franchise Quarterback
After a disappointing 2021 seasons, sources from inside the Browns organization stated they wanted to move on from Baker Mayfield and get "an adult in the room" to play quarterback. Apparently, what they meant to say was that they want to "get an adulterer in the room". Don't you just hate when teams and the NFL headline peddlers they use as their PR teams get their wires crossed!!!
Watson allegedly committed an array of sex crimes including sexual assault, forced groping of his genitals and indecent exposure against 30 women over an 18-month period from 2019-21 that brought civil lawsuits upon him and was only "exonerated" because a Texas grand jury failed to indict him on 8 criminal charges after he plead the 5th to all of the questions he was asked. Despite the failure to advance these cases to the criminal court, 22 civil lawsuits against Watson are still ongoing and in his limited media appearances since joining the Browns, Watson has repeatedly said that he believes he did nothing wrong, and he's never abused a woman in his life. But hey, at least they were able to part ways with Mayfield for his unforgivable crime of being a cocky, outspoken NFL quarterback.
Plenty of people in sports media have said in far more eloquent words than I ever could produce as to why bringing in Watson is so reprehensible-particularly for the women he abused who have to watch him smile and play football like nothing ever happened and female fans of the team seeing once again that the people in this league don't give a shit who you abuse or torment as long as you go out and play well on Sunday. So, I'd like to use this space to raise some attention to a parallel story that hasn't got the level of attention it should: There are vocal portions of the Browns fanbase that seem to harbor more ill will towards Mayfield than Watson.
Mayfield's big-mouthed antics might've pissed off some beat reporters and guys in the locker room, but some decorum missteps aren't the same as being a serial sexual predator. Some people embracing Watson while condemning Mayfield is just an outside the box example of a larger societal problem of certain men just being proudly unapologetic sexists that view women as subservient beings whose only purpose is to be exploited for their pleasures and desires. I don't how any of you people are able to say that you love your mom, wife, sister or daughter with degree of any sincerity when you deny or minimize the harm of the actions of the people that take great enjoyment in dehumanizing them. We're not going to achieve anything that even resembles true equality until this mindset is eradicated from every level of our societies, but as Watson's initial 5-month tenure as a Brown has helped reinforce, that day isn't going to arrive anytime soon if it even happens at all.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting Access to a Time Machine and Not Trading for Deshaun Watson
Maybe the Greater Cleveland area is the place where the magical hot tub, phone booth or other otherworldly scientific device that can teleport people from one period in time to another is hiding. If so, Haslam needs to use some of his truck stop convenience store money to get access to that thing pronto. There are so many different paths that would net better outcomes than giving up so many assets for Watson. You could make up with Mayfield after throwing him to the wolves after a season where he was playing with a hurt throwing shoulder for the final 12 games, give up less draft capital for the services of Matt Ryan/Jimmy Garoppolo or maybe even get real crazy and draft somebody. In the more likely scenario that Haslam can't get his hands on this fancy, fictional tech, things are looking pretty fucking dire in The Forest City for at least the next 3-5 years.
Bottom Line:
Whatever potential this team had got largely destroyed when they acquired and extended a quarterback that has a legitimate chance of receiving an indefinite suspension. You reap what you sow.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Record: 9-7-1 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (16th season)
Notable Additions: QB Mitch Trubisky, CB Levi Wallace, G James Daniels
Notable Departures: QB Ben Roethlisberger (retired), DE Stephon Tuitt (retired), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Ben Roethlisberger Has Finally Retired
It took a year or two longer than expected, but Big Ben has finally been put out to the pasture. The 40-year old future Hall of Famer decided to repay the Steelers for their unwavering loyalty to him by deciding to not steal the organization's money for a 3rd consecutive season and retire after the handful of remaining molecules that make up his body had a really rough go of it during a 2021 season where they somehow were able to make the playoffs in spite of his gross ineffectiveness. Being free from the Roethlisberger-sized albatross that's weighed them down for 2 straight season opens up a ton of exciting possibilities like actually being able to utilize the blistering speed of Dionate Johnson and Chase Claypool by throwing the ball more than 11 YDS downfield, having a QB that has enough mobility in their legs to entertain leaving the pocket on occasion and seeing Najee Harris face less comically stacked boxes on account of their non-threatening passing game. Can't wait to see what Matt Canada can do with his newfound freedom in the scheming and playcalling department.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The Quarterback Situation
As much as Roethlisberger's exit is a cause for jubilation in Western Pennsylvania, the Steelers don't exactly have an airtight succession plan. At the moment, Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett are locked in a camp battle for the starting job with the ex-Bears starter taking the 1st team reps at camp while longtime backup Mason Rudolph serves as the mentor/de facto player coach for a pair of guys who are new to this system. Considering that it's been almost 20 years since the last time things were legitimately unsettled at this position, this perceived QB competition is a scary proposition for an organization that (rightfully) prides itself on its top-down stability.
The truth is that fans have every right to not feel overly great about either guy. Trubisky was a pretty average starter during his 4 years with the Bears who nobody felt was good enough to compete for a starting job last season (he ended up serving as Josh Allen's backup in Buffalo) while Pickett has a ton of very legitimate questions surrounding his game (size, fumbling issues, arm strength, lack of productivity prior to the 2021 season despite being the starter at Pitt for 3 prior seasons) and is significantly more grizzled than any of his counterparts from the so-so 2022 QB class (he turned 24 in June, which makes his just 3 months younger than Justin Herbert and older than every single quarterback selected in the 1st round of last year's draft).
The silver lining to all of this is that there's absolutely no pressure on either guy to succeed this season. It's impossible for them to be as limited as Jurassic Park-era Roethlisberger was and anything above the bare minimum that a starting NFL QB can possibly provide will be a net upgrade for this team.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Play of their Defense
The ugliness of the Steelers past 3 seasons has proved that Mike Tomlin can find ways to win in the regular season game with any quarterback that could ever make onto an NFL field. What separates the Steelers tweener teams from the legitimate good ones is the play of their defense. Last season was the former as that group posted some staggeringly bad numbers outside of their pass defense (9th in YDS allowed/7th in TD's) and pass rush (a league-high 55 sacks), finishing 20th in points allowed and dead last in total run defense-allowing a whopping 5 YDS per carry and 146 YDS per game.
Escaping the tweener zone is going to be an uphill climb in 2022. Their already shaky run defense took a huge blow with the surprise retirement of the great Stephon Tuitt and while it was a cheap, savvy move with the potential to be a heist situation if he can regain his old mojo in a new setting, relying on Myles Jack to upgrade their awful inside linebacker group-that somehow still features 2019 draft bust Devin Bush in a starting role-after the abysmal 2021 campaign he had in Jacksonville would be recklessly naive.
As difficult as it will be for this group to elevate the elite level they were at in 2020 with these massive deficiencies in their run defense, there are enough reasons to have a glimmer of hope that it's possible. Free agent pickup Levi Wallace is a tougher, more capable cover guy than Joe Haden is at this point in his career, late offseason edition Larry Ogunjobi gives them yet another capable pass-rusher who should be able to clean up on the inside with all of the attention T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Alex Highsmith draw on every play and despite a wrist injury preventing him of being a full-go at camp right now, Minkah Fitzpatrick is easily capable of making more of an impact than he did during his pretty nondescript 2021 campaign. Tomlin has made things work with less and what becomes of this group could end up altering the entire AFC playoff picture by seasons' end.
Bottom Line:
Mike Tomlin will always put a competitive team on the field and only good things can come from having a new face under center this season. However, that might not be enough for them to earn a 3rd straight playoff spot in an AFC that figures to be much more competitive than it was either of the past 2 seasons.
Projected Standings:
1.Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
2.Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
3.Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
4.Cleveland Browns (5-12)
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