Way Too Early Oscar Predictions: 2022 Edition

Making Oscars predictions immediately after the big 3 festivals (Venice, Telluride, Toronto) wrap up isn't a great idea. Critics and cinephiles are so drunk on the power of cinema that they're crowning new winners on a near daily basis without taking the time to weigh the options from the entire field of prospective contenders. Is making early predictions a month later much better? Probably not but allowing the peak of the hyperbolic buzz from the festival circuit to die down definitely leads to a crop of picks that are least a bit less knee-jerky in nature. The delay also provided clarity on whether some performers including Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Margot Robbie, Brendon Glesson, Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan and Rooney Mara would be entered into the lead or supporting races (the answer for all of them save for Dano, Glesson and Mulligan was lead).

Although the list is far shorter than usual as a result of me waiting until Halloween to do this, it does need to be noted that there are a handful of potential contenders (Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water, Spoiler Alert, I Wanna Dance with Somebody, A Man Called Otto) that haven't widely screened yet and the forecast for all of these races could significantly shift once they do. Without any further delay, here are my early Oscar predictions. 

 *Indicates my current predicted winner 

Best Picture:

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once*

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio 

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

Best Director:

Damien Chazelle, Babylon

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin 

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans*

Best Actor:

Austin Butler, Elvis

Diego Calva, Babylon

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin*

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Hugh Jackman, The Son

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett, TAR*

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor:

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Glesson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Best Supporting Actress:

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking*

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Claire Foy, Women Talking

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Sadie Sink, The Whale

Best Original Screenplay:

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once*

The Fabelmans

TAR

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio 

Living

The Son

The Whale

Women Talking*

Best Animated Feature:

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio*

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Strange World

Turning Red

Wendell & Wild

Best Documentary Feature:

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Descendant

Fire of Love

The Janes

Navlany*

Best International Feature:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Close*

Decision to Leave

Klondike

Saint Omer