Oscar Predictions

Best Picture:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin 

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Some crusty members of the Academy and their mouthpieces in the Hollywood trade publications are continuing to try very hard to question Everything Everywhere All at Once's ability to win Best Picture. Unless they're throwing out every ballot that wasn't cast by a member of BAFTA, it's extremely hard to believe that's going to happen. EEAO has dominated every award show of note outside of England and none of the recent Best Picture "upsets" (Green Book, CODA) unseated titles that had this level of momentum going into Oscar night.

Best Director:

Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Todd Field (TAR)

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 

Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Predicted Winner: Daniels

The DGA Awards was basically the last chance for somebody to rise from the pack and unseat the Daniels (aka Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert). Since that didn't happen, this eccentric duo appears set to win an honor that seemingly nobody gave them a chance to win as recently as November. 

Best Actor:

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler

After Colin Farrell failed to secure a BAFTA win, this race turned into a coin flip between Brendan Fraser and Butler. As much as the industry has rallied around the Fraser comeback narrative, Butler has the distinction of giving an acclaimed performance as a real person-which is catnip for Oscar voters as they've given at least 1 actor from a biopic an award every single year from 1998 through last year save for 2016-and I would be kind of surprised if they broke that mold when a performance that came from a rising star doing transcendent work as one of the most iconic musicians of all time is in the field.

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett, TAR

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh

It wouldn't be a surprise if Cate Blanchett swept in and won here. Her work in TAR has been widely cited as the best of her illustrious career and she has been splitting honors with Yeoh all awards season long. However, Yeoh has edged out Blanchett at the SAG and Independent Spirit Awards in recent weeks and that momentum paired with the feel-good story of Yeoh finally getting her due after 35 years as a global star should be enough for her to eek out a win.

Best Supporting Actor:

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway 

Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin 

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan

This is the only safe bet in any of the acting categories. Like his directors, Quan has won every predictive honor save for the BAFTA and his journey from being out of acting for nearly 30 years to giving a deeply moving performance in the most acclaimed movie of 2022 is an incredible story that should make for a heartwarming moment on the broadcast.

Best Supporting Actress:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin 

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon

A true logjam in an acting category is a pretty foreign sight at the Oscars. In fact, the Best Actress race between Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand 2 years ago is the only other time I can recall in recent memory that there's been a race that was so wide open going into the ceremony. The players in this particular race are Bassett, Condon and Curtis. Bassett got off to a hot start after she won the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice Award, but she's gone home emptyhanded since then, Condon took home the BAFTA last month and the "lifetime achievement" angle that has surrounded Curtis all awards season (this is the 64-year-old screen legend's 1st ever Oscar nomination) has more legs than ever after her unexpected win at the SAG Awards a few weeks ago. Ultimately, I like Condon here because I think voters will want to prevent The Banshees of Inisheirn-which is the 2nd most nominated movie of the evening behind Everything Everywhere All at Once-from going home emptyhanded and this frontrunner-less category feels like the clearest opportunity for them to give Martin McDonagh's darkly comedic period drama an honor.

Other Predictions:

Best Original Screenplay: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Documentary Feature: Fire of Love

Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front  

Best Cinematography: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Film Editing: Paul Rodgers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Original Song: "Natu Natu", RRR

Best Score: Justin Hurwitz, Babylon 

Best Costume Design: Elvis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Best Production Design: Babylon

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers 

Best Live Action Short: An Irish Goodbye

What My Ballot Would Like If I Had a Vote:

Best Picture: The Banshees of Inisherin 

Best Director: Martin McDonagh 

Best Actor: Colin Farrell

Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh

Best Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan 

Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon

Best Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Animated Feature: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best Documentary Feature: Abstain

Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Original Song: "Natu Natu", RRR

Best Score: Babylon

Best Costume Design: Elvis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Batman 

Best Production Design: Babylon 

Best Sound: The Batman

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Animated Short: Abstain

Best Documentary Short: Abstain

Best Live Action Short: Abstain