Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Browns) (ADP: Yahoo!: 87.1 ESPN 77.9)
Somewhere in the 7/8th round is hardly a steep price to pay for a quarterback in fantasy. However, what the hell did Watson show when he returned to the field last season to prove he's worthy of even a modest investment in the draft? His ADP being at least a couple of rounds higher than Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones-who were all low-end QB1's last year-while he was barely even a QB2-is laughable.
Dishonorable Mentions: Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), Aaron Rodgers (Jets), Brock Purdy (49ers)
Running Back: Jonathan Taylor (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo!: 14.4 ESPN: 28.8)
There should be an asterisk on this since Taylor's has already tumbled out of the 1st round mix as the Colts attempt to trade their disgruntled star back who has missed nearly all of training camp with an "injury" and his ADP will likely continue to do so as long as remains on the roster in Indy. Still, a guy with an uncertain immediate future has no business going so high at a position where the top of the draft board is already largely defined by volatility and stomach-churning leaps of faith.
Dishonorable Mentions: Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots), Breece Hall (Jets), Najee Harris (Steelers)
Wide Receiver: Cooper Kupp (Rams) (Yahoo!: 7.5 ESPN: 8.4)
If both Matthew Stafford and Kupp can return to the field healthy after finishing 2022 on IR (Stafford had a neck ailment and suffered 2 concussion in less than 1 month while Kupp had a severe high ankle sprain that required surgery), the duo will likely cook just like they have in nearly every game they've played together over the past 2 seasons. That's a big if though-especially with Kupp pulling his hamstring a few weeks back and only returning to practice yesterday-and taking that kind of monumental risk in the 1st round just feels reckless no matter how massive the reward could be.
Dishonorable Mentions: Davante Adams (Raiders), Tee Higgins (Bengals), Marquise Brown (Cardinals)
Tight End: T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) (ADP: Yahoo!: 41.5 ESPN: 46.6)
Tight end inflation has receded quite a bit in 2023 after fantasy players got price gouged for TE1's due to the lack of sizzle at the position behind Kelce, Kittle and Andrews last year. The lone player whose productivity doesn't aliign with his going rate this year is Hockenson. While Hockenson should have a fine year as the clear #2 option in a pass-heavy Vikings system, investing such a high pick in a guy that only averaged 8.7 YDS per reception during his 10 games with the Vikes last year (he averaged 15.2 YPC in 7 games with the Lions) and has never gotten more than 6 TD's in a season just screams horrible value (especially in standard leagues).
Dishonorable Mentions: Evan Engram (Jaguars), Greg Dulcich (Broncos), Gerald Everett (Chargers)
Defense/Special Teams: Buffalo (ADP: Yahoo!: 87.8 ESPN: 102.8 )
Buffalo's defense lost much of their fantasy usefulness after Von Miller tore his ACL on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit and their sack and takeaway rates immediately plummeted. With Miller still on the shelf to start 2023, longtime DC Leslie Frazier stepping away from the team and question marks existing throughout their entire unit, they don't appear to be in great shape to start this year either and subsequently don't deserve to be viewed as the top 3/4 D/ST group the fantasy sites have pegged them to be.
Dishonorable Mentions: Philadelphia, Kansas City, Cincinnati
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