Oscar Predictions

Best Picture:

Nominees:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

I'm Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

Predicted Winner: Anora

This is a two-horse race between Anora and Conclave that got a lot more interesting after Conclave won Best Ensemble Cast and Anora got shut out entirely at the SAG Awards last weekend-making it only the 3rd film ever to go home empty at the SAG's after winning the top prize at the PGA, WGA and DGA Awards (the other two are Brokeback Mountain, which lost Best Picture to Crash and The Hurt Locker, which went onto win Best Picture). While Conclave has the benefit of being a more accessible film and having a slew of beloved veteran actors heading up its cast (Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini, Sergio Castellitto, Lucian Msamati), I'm still giving the edge to Anora here. Victories at Critic's Choice/DGA/PGA/WGA/Indie Spirit are a powerful combination when paired with its Palm d'or from last spring and the volume of passionate fans it has in the industry puts it in a good spot to perform well on the preferential ballot the Academy uses for its Best Picture voting. 

Best Director:

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Sean Baker, Anora

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker

Despite still facing the legit threat of being upset by Brady Corbet, this feels like Baker's award to lose. Baker has been grinding on the indie film scene for almost 25 years at this point and his tremendous work on Anora feels like the perfect opportunity to honor one of the most quietly impactful American filmmakers of the 21st century.  

Best Actor:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody

Timothee Chalamet's shocking SAG victory threw a last second curveball into a race that was believed to have been firmly locked up by Brody. Ultimately, I don't think Brody is in any real danger of not winning an Oscar for a performance that has been widely hailed to be as good, if not better than the one that won him his first one 23 years ago, but this late-stage threat from one of the industry's brightest young stars has considerably elevated the excitement factor surrounding this award.     

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore

Once again, the most tightly contested award of the night is Best Actress. Demi Moore looked like the runaway favorite after picking up Golden Globes and Critics Choice wins then she lost her favorite status to Mikey Madison after the Anora star took home both the BAFTA and Indie Spirit before she seized the momentum back with a SAG win. Fernanda Torres is also lurking as a potential dark horse contender after winning the Golden Globe last month and gradually picking up more support from the Academy voting body as I'm Still Here has released in more countries over the past several weeks. At the end of the day, I think Moore's status as an industry veteran who turned in the most celebrated performance of her career in her early 60's after being essentially written off as a serious actor for the past 20+ years puts in her pole position to take home the gold statue.     

Best Supporting Actor:

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin

This is where the suspense surrounding the biggest awards of the night comes to a swift end. Culkin-who is the heart and soul of Jesse Eisenberg's excellent dramedy A Real Pain-has won every single race he's been in this season and there's just no way that he won't be adding an Oscar to his overflowing trophy case at this stage of the game. 

Best Supporting Actress:

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist 

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldana 

The sudden fall from grace that Emilia Perez has taken over the past month after star Karla Sofia Gascon's large collection of racist tweets came to light has managed to spare Saldana thus far and it would be shocking if that reckoning finally came on Oscar night. Like Culkin, she's won every award she's been up for this awards season and her long-standing positive reputation in the industry paired with the consensus opinion that she's the best part of Emilia Perez even from its many detractors has helped her remain afloat while her peers from Jaques Audiard's misguided Netflix musical have sunk.  

Other Awards:

Best Original Screenplay: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave

Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Best Documentary Feature: Porcelain War 

Best International Feature: I'm Still Here

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist

Best Film Editing: Conclave

Best Original Score: The Brutalist

Best Original Song: "El Mal", Emilia Perez

Best Costume Design: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance

Best Production Design: Wicked

Best Sound: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Short Film: Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short Film: I Am Ready, Warden 

Best Live Action Short Film: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

What My Ballot Would Look Like If I Were an Academy Voter: 

Best Picture: Anora

Best Director: Sean Baker

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande

Best Original Screenplay: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay: A Complete Unknown

Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Best Documentary Feature: Sugarcane

Best International Feature: Abstain 

Best Cinematography: Nosferatu 

Best Film Editing: Anora

Best Score: The Wild Robot

Best Original Song: "Like a Bird", Sing Sing

Best Costume Design: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance

Best Production Design: Wicked

Best Sound: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Short Film: Abstain

Best Documentary Short Film: Abstain

Best Live Action Short Film: Abstain