NFL Conference Championship Predictions

 Last Week: 3-1 (Correct: Seahawks, Patriots, Rams Incorrect: Bills)

Overall Playoff Record: 7-3

New England Patriots Over Denver Broncos:

Before I talk about this game, I have to put into writing that the Broncos made me eat shit with their performance last week. They took advantage of the many mistakes the Bills made, and Bo Nix shook off of a very rough second half to deliver when his team needed him the most during the end of the 4th quarter/overtime to lead the Broncos to a gutsy win that granted them the opportunity to return to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2015. 

Moving on today's game, Nix being sidelined with a broken ankle changes the complexion of this game entirely. Nix's mobility is the key to the entire Broncos offense and without him under center, their system becomes much more predictable and their RB's and pass-catchers beyond Courtland Sutton aren't strong enough to have faith in their ability to overcome the loss of their second year signalcaller's improvisational gifts. On top of this, Nix's backup Jarrett Stidham has not taken a meaningful snap since the end of the 2023 season and only has 4 career starts during his 7-year NFL career. Nobody in NFL history has started a Conference Championship with this little game action under their belt and asking somebody this green to come off the bench and lead you to a Super Bowl is a huge ask, especially against a defense that has been stifling against both the run and pass in each of their playoff games thus far. 

Any path to a Broncos victory will most likely have to be through their defense once again being able to take advantage of their opponent's miscues/offensive line woes (which is feasible as the Patriots have turned the ball over a whopping five times and allowed 10 sacks over the past two games) and/or the Patriots once again succumbing to the horrors of Mile High (they've lost all four of their previous playoff games in franchise history). To put it more succinctly, I just don't think the Broncos in a good position to win today given the huge matchup disadvantages they're being handed with their offense going against the Pats defense. 

Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Rams:

Even after the shellacking they handed the 49ers at home last week, having faith in the Seahawks isn't an easy to thing to do right now. Sam Darnold wasn't exactly rolling against the 49ers (12/17, 124 YDS, 1 TD), their rushing attack will now fall squarely on the shoulders of Kenneth Walker III as Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL last week and it feels like they need things that can't be relied upon to happen every week like special teams or defensive scores to really gain control of a game. If a shootout situation emerges like it did during their last meeting back in Week 16, I don't think the 'Hawks will be able to win this time around. 

The sole reason I'm picking the Seahawks here is that I don't think the Rams offense has been particularly strong over the past two weeks. Save for a few drives, they had a very hard time moving the ball against a pretty terrible Bears defense. Going against a Seahawks team that shares Bears DC Dennis Allen's love of throwing out weird blitz looks but doesn't share Allen's group inability to stop the run would be a nightmare scenario for the Rams team we've seen over the past couple of weeks. If anybody can get back on track after a pair of down weeks, it's Stafford, Sean McVay, Puka Nacua and the deeply talented Rams offense- I just can't in good conscience pick them to win a game in which they're squaring off with the best defense by far they've played in the playoffs after seeing what they've done in the playoffs up to this point.