Conference Championship Record: 2-0
Overall Playoff Record: 9-3
Seattle Seahawks over New England Patriots:
The conclusion of the wackiest NFL season in recent memory is finally upon us. Anybody that expected either of these teams to make the Super Bowl as recently as early December would've likely been written off as a homer or delusional moron, so kudos to those who believed in these teams before the rest of the football world did. This is a strange matchup for a number of reasons, particularly when you consider their paths to get here as The Seahawks put together a pair of excellent games against two of their divisional rivals while the Patriots strong defensive play made up for the erratic play and ugly turnovers that bogged down their offense during their three game run to the AFC crown.
As much as I can buy into the narrative that the Patriots are a team of destiny after winning 16 of their last 17 games, I still can't pick them to win this game. No matter how angry Patriots fans get about this topic of conversation, you just can't overlook the tidal wave of good fortune that has come their way by playing three broken offenses in a row on their way to making it here. While Sam Darnold absolutely has it in him to shit his pants and replicate the hideous turnovers that C.J. Stroud and Jarrett Stidham committed that played a huge role in them securing wins in each of the past two weeks, the 'Hawks offense could also smack the Patriots in the mouth if they take care of the football, which wasn't even a realistic consideration during any of the other games during this run. The biggest weakness of the Pats defense by far is defending vertical passing attacks and Darnold is coming off a game against the Rams where he was absolutely lethal downfield. The versatility of Jaxson Smith-Njigba, speed of Rasheed Shaheed and size of A.J. Barner presents the type of challenge the Patriots haven't faced in these playoffs thus far, and I wouldn't exactly be stunned if Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones and their linebackers/safeties ended up getting cooked just like the Rams did two weeks ago. If the Hawks somehow able to also get Kenneth Walker III and their rushing attack going against the Patriots stout run D, things could get real ugly real fast.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense has largely struggled during these playoffs due to how strong the defenses they've played have been and they're once again going to have their hands full with the Seahawks defense. The 'Hawks have a physical pass rush that could really wear down their weak interior line and undersized left tackle Will Campbell, their third ranked rushing defense has what it takes to slow down the Pats typically effective power/speed RB combo of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson and most importantly, their metrics in the most important areas of the game are all at or near the top of the league (1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down defense, 5th in 3rd down defense, 6th in takeaways). Their biggest vulnerabilities are Riq Woolen at the second outside corner spot (Drake Maye is going to likely need a big game from Kayshon Boutte or Mack Hollins to get their air attack going given that Devon Witherspoon is likely to follow Stefon Diggs wherever he lines up) and in defending QB scrambles-which is an area where Drake Maye particularly excels. Are those weaknesses enough for the Patriots to exploit and put together their first strong offensive showing of these playoffs? Perhaps, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on it.
Look, I'm fully prepared for the possibility the Pats win this game. The Seahawks aren't an infallible juggernaut by any stretch, Mike Macdonald is a greener coach than Mike Vrabel and as I said earlier, Darnold is capable of being a turnover machine and an operation as sound as the Patriots would be able to take advantage of those mistakes in the same way they did in their wins over the Chargers, Texans and Broncos. I just happen to think the Seahawks are a more talented team and the magic that the Patriots have rode to this game is finally going to run out.
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