Oscars Predictions

Best Picture:

Nominees:

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

While the late surge from Sinners driven by its Best Ensemble win at the Actor Awards has certainly made things more interesting, One Battle After Another is still firmly in the pole position heading into Oscar night. One Battle has taken the top prize at every major non-SAG precursor event, and it just feels like the perfect opportunity for the Academy to give Paul Thomas Anderson his due after snubbing him for the past 30 years.  

Best Director:

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson

Piggybacking off what I just said above, PTA is a filmmaking icon that has never won an Oscar over the course of his storied career and honoring him for his biggest film to date not only makes sense but would mimic the path that the past two winners (Christopher Nolan, Sean Baker) followed to winning this award.

Best Actor:

Nominees:

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Predicted Winner: Michael B. Jordan

I was holding firm on previous frontrunner Timothee Chalamet winning in the immediate aftermath of Jordan taking home the Actor Award two weeks ago, but that changed late last week upon further reflection. Much will be made about Chalamet's late season collapse and for good reason, it looked like he was a lock for Best Actor until he got popped at the BAFTA's by Robert Aramayo (side note: it was hilarious watching the Oscar pundits flip the fuck out over Aramayo's win as I Swear wasn't even eligible for awards this year as US distributor Sony Classics elected to wait until April to release it) then went onto to get knocked off by Jordan the following week . Personally, I think Sinners being a more broadly loved movie among the awards bodies than Marty Supreme is more responsible for the tide shift than anything Chalamet said or did on the campaign trail but I'm positive this will not be a take that's shared by many if Jordan wins on Sunday. Anyways, Jordan's dual performances as twin brother Smoke and Stock is the kind of impressive piece of technical acting that deserve to be honored with gold trophies. His heartfelt speech at the Actor Awards probably didn't hurt his chances either.

Best Actress:

Nominees:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Song Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley

In a season full of highly competitive acting races, Buckley has been the sole performer who has absolutely dominated the field-winning literally every single major award she's been up for. It would be a complete shock if she didn't win here and complete the season sweep.

Best Supporting Actor:

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

Predicted Winner: Sean Penn

The importance of campaigning is something that is discussed ad nauseum every single award season.  Penn emerging as the Best Supporting Actor frontrunner all of a sudden after winning at the BAFTA's and Actor Awards completely flies in the face of this narrative. This man has been a ghost for the bulk of the season and yet, he could still take home his first Oscar since 2008 and third overall. Penn's obvious contempt for this entire process along with him being completely shut out prior to his back-to-back wins will certainly leave the door open for previous favorite Stellan Skarsgard or popular wild card pick Delroy Lindo to win here, but I don't think it's overly likely that One Battle gets shut out in the acting categories and he currently has the best odds of being the member of the cast to leave the ceremony with some hardware by a considerable margin.

Best Supporting Actress:

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Predicted Winner: Amy Madigan

This category has been pure anarchy since Teyana Taylor's entrenched frontrunner status went up in smoke after losing to Wunmi Mosaku and Amy Madigan at the BAFTA's and Actor Awards respectively. Given how up in the air this category is, I elected to go with Madigan as she's most the recent winner. A 75-year-old career character actor winning her first Oscar for a villain turn in a pure mainstream horror movie would be an unbelievable development that would further solidify how much more open minded the Academy has become over the past handful of years.

Other Awards:

Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay: Sinners

Best Animated Feature: Kpop Demon Hunters

Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor

Best International Feature: Sentimental Value

Best Casting: Sinners

Best Cinematography: One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing: One Battle After Another

Best Original Score: Sinners

Best Original Song: "Golden", Kpop Demon Hunters

Best Costume Design: Frankenstein

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein

Best Production Design: Frankenstein 

Best Sound: F1

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Animated Short Film: Butterfly

Best Documentary Short Film: All the Empty Rooms

Best Live Action Short Film: Two People Exchanging Saliva 

What My Ballot Would Look Like If I Were an Academy Voter:

Best Picture: Sinners

Best Director: Ryan Coogler

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet

Best Actress: Rose Byrne

Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Elordi

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan

Best Adapted Screenplay: Bugonia

Best Original Screenplay: Sinners

Best Animated Feature: Zootopia 2 

Best Documentary Feature: The Alabama Solution

Best International Feature: Sentimental Value

Best Casting: Sinners

Best Cinematography: Sinners

Best Film Editing: Marty Supreme

Best Original Score: Sinners

Best Original Song: "I Lied to You", Sinners

Best Costume Design: Frankenstein

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Frankenstein

Best Production Design: Frankenstein

Best Sound: Sinners

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Animated Short: Abstain

Best Documentary Short: Abstain

Best Live Action Short: Abstain