Arizona Cardinals
2019 Record: 5-10-1 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (2nd season)
Notable Additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DE Jordan Phillips, OLB Devon Kennard
Notable Departures: RB David Johnson, DT Zach Kerr, WR Damiere Byrd
Notable Opt-Outs: T Marcus Gilbert
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Adding DeAndre Hopkins
The Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals was one of the most stunning, unexpected transactions that I can recall happening in professional sports during my conscious lifetime. 4x All-Pro receivers in the middle of their primes that have no off-field red flags aren't supposed to be available at all, let alone for the asking price of 2 non-1st round picks and an expensive running back (David Johnson) entering his year 29 season that hasn't been healthy or productive in the past 3 seasons.
Hopkins entering the fold opens up a lot of possibilities for this offense that had settled into a nice groove in December with Kenyan Drake taking full advantage of the biggest workload he's ever received in the pros with a pair of 140+ scrimmage YD/multi TD explosions in the last 4 games of the season and Kyler Murray starting to look more comfortable under center despite working with a lean group of pass-catching options. Adding a top-end guy in Hopkins that can make ridiculous contested catches in traffic and beat up on the best corners in the league with his precise route-running won't only help Murray by giving him a proven big time playmaker, but it will open more opportunities for his secondary options (Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella and old reliable Larry Fitzgerald) to take advantage of soft coverages they'll draw with the extra attention that the future Hall of Famer will attract. This is the type of addition that can dramatically shift the trajectory of the organization and there's no way that Steve Kiem won't be regularly showering Bill O'Brien with gifts if Hopkins ends up impacting the Cardinals offense the same way he did Houston's for the past 7 seasons.
Biggest Question Mark: Viability of This Defense
The Cardinals are a sexy pick to be the most improved team in the league this year and it's not hard to see why. Pairing a QB/RB/WR tandem with the ceiling Murray/Drake/Hopkins has with an offensive-minded coach in Kliff Kingsbury that fared far better in his 1st year in the NFL ranks than most people expected him to definitely sounds like a potential recipe for breakout success if things break their way. Even if all does go well on offense, their defense has the potential to play spoiler for their ascension hopes.
When looking at the faces of their defense, it's easy to be tricked into thinking that this group is onto something. Chandler Jones has been the most productive pass rusher in the league since he got to the Desert-registering an absurd 60 sacks since 2016, Budda Baker is coming off a breakout year that just made him the highest paid safety in the league and rookie inside linebacker Isaiah Simmons could prove to be a cornerstone piece for years to come if the sideline-to-sideline playmaking ability he displayed at Clemson translates to the pros.
Once you get past the buzzworthy glamour of that trio, this is a group that offers very little to get excited about. Patrick Peterson's days as a top corner are long gone, Byron Murphy got flat-out assaulted by opposing receivers during his rookie season (71 REC allowed on 104 Targets) and their new veteran front 7 additions are a cast-off from a garbage Lions defense (Devon Kennard), a run game liability/deceptively productive pass-rusher who benefited greatly from being a rotational piece on an elite defense in Buffalo (Jordan Phillips) and a generally average-to-below-average linebacker that has struggled with consistency throughout his career (De'Vondre Campbell). There's enough clear holes within this group to believe another bottom 10 finish in scoring defense/YDS allowed is possible, especially in a division like the NFC West that is full of offenses that can attack opponents in a variety of ways.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: A Year 2 Jump from Kyler Murray
Murray's Offensive Rookie of the Year win was a bit of a head scratcher. While he was good enough to be optimistic about his future (particularly in the accuracy department-where he completed a solid 64.4% of his passes), he was rarely anything above decent for a 5-win team and made enough bad decisions as both a runner and passer that should've taken him out of the running for that award (Josh Jacobs was the clear winner IMO).
For the Cardinals to cash in on their offseason hype and make a surprise run to the postseason, Murray is going to have to be much better than decent. To take that needed step forward, he's got to work on getting the ball out quicker, making better reads when it comes to deciding when to make to a throw or take off and run, and cleaning up that INT problem that suddenly emerged at the end of year (7 of his 12 picks on the year came in the final 5 games). Murray is smart, accurate and athletic enough to be an impact QB in the pros and making that next step in year 2 will be crucial in determining his trajectory moving forward.
Bottom Line:
The Cardinals defensive problems seems like they're going to undermine whatever success they have on offense and leave them as a middle of the pack team.
Los Angeles Rams
2019 Record: 9-7 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Sean McVay (4th season)
Notable Additions: OLB Leonard Floyd, DT/DE A'Shawn Robinson
Notable Departures: RB Todd Gurley, ILB Cory Littleton, WR Brandin Cooks
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Sean McVay's Offensive Wizardry
2019 was not what the Rams had hoped for as an encore for their Super Bowl appearance in 2018. About the biggest silver lining that emerged from that underwhelming 9-7 campaign that saw them missing the playoffs entirely was that McVay found a way to keep this offense productive (11th in points scored, 4th in passing, 10th in total 1st downs) even as Jared Goff and Todd Gurley took steep steps backwards. Heading into 2020, McVay will once again be the lifeline this team depends on when their backs are against the wall. His inventive scheming/sharp playcalling is able to cover up a lot of the deficiencies they have on offense (offensive line, Goff's ability to handle pressure/make difficult throws) and with some exciting rookies (Cam Akers, Van Jefferson) replacing their hobbled veterans (Gurley, Brandin Cooks), we could see some added fireworks this season. They need McVay's beautiful mind more than ever in 2020 and his performance will go a long way in determining their fate.
Biggest Question Mark: Being Able to Compete in the NFC West
Professional sports is a never ending arms race and just 2 years after making it to the Super Bowl, it looks like the Rams are losing it. Giving big money to Goff, Aaron Donald and now Jalen Ramsey has put the Rams in a self-imposed cap crunch that has forced them to let a number of valuable contributors walk out the door (Rodger Saffold, Corey Littleton, Greg Zuerlein, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Dante Fowler) over the past couple of offseasons. Making matters worse, they've repeatedly dumped valuable draft capital to fulfill their addiction to adding shiny pieces (Ramsey, Cooks, Marcus Peters-the latter 2 of which aren't with the team anymore) and every other team in this division have been able to bring in high-end talent (Jamal Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Richard Sherman) without destroying their long-term flexibility in the process.
Having a handful of a terrific players is great and all, but are those luxuries worth having if you essentially have to try and fashion something functional out of spare parts at key spots including offensive line and inside linebacker as a result of those moves? This approach that favors having a few star players over building a complete team feels like it's going to be detrimental in the long run, especially in a division that's as competitive as the NFC West and I think this will be the year where the wheels start to come off their flashy yet hollow designer bus.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Mass Overachievement from Largely Unproven or Inexperienced Players/Coaches
Piggybacking off the last section, the Rams latest round of shakeups didn't stop on the field. GM Les Snead and McVay responded to their underwhelming 2019 by going scorched earth on the coaching staff-including parting ways with respected veteran DC Wade Phillips and special team coordinator John Fassell. Replacing these veteran mainstays will be Brandon Staley, a first time pro DC whose spent the last 3 seasons working as Vic Fangio's outside linebacker coach with the Bears and Broncos and John Bonamego-a veteran special teams coach who was with the Lions in 2019.
These new coaches will have their work cut out for them right away. On defense, Staley will be saddled with an inexperienced inside linebacker tandem (Micah Kiser-a 3rd year player who spent the entirety of 2019 on IR, Troy Reeder-who registered an abysmal 28.6 PFF grade last season) to replace a rising star in Littleton, a slot corner that's only played 109 career snaps (David Long) and an edge pairing of Samson Ebukam and ex-Bear Leonard Floyd, who combined for 7.5 sacks in 2019, to fill the 11.5 sack void left by Fowler. As for special teams, Bonamego has to find a new ace to replace Littleton-who earned All-Pro honors as a special teamer in 2018 and deal with the always fun roller coaster of working with a rookie kicker in Sam Sloman.
Their final pivotal question mark spot at offensive line is a bit of a different situation. Both the starting lineup and position coach (Aaron Kromer) will remain in tact from a year ago-which isn't exactly the greatest news in the world considering that they were among the worst units in the league. Andrew Whitworth's best days are probably behind him as he approaches his 39th birthday and guard Austin Corbett, a 2018 2nd round pick who was acquired from the Browns last October, has faceplanted since he entered the league, but there is real bounceback potential for center Austin Blythe and tackle Rob Havenstein-who were both very good during their 2018 run- that gives this group the best chances of overachieving on the team.
Relying on young guys and cheap veterans to make an impact is the only way the Rams way of doing business is going to work in the long-term and the aforementioned group along with a handful of other guys at less problematic positions (Tyler Higbee, Taylor Rapp, Troy Hill, Sebastian Joseph-Day) are going to dictate whether or not Snead is a complete dunce or the most diabolical genius personnel guy in the league.
Bottom Line:
They're the only team in the NFC West that's gotten worse on paper in the offseason and I think that will end up hurting them in the standings.
San Francisco 49ers
2019 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (4th season)
Notable Additions: T Trent Williams, DE Kerry Hyder, TE Jordan Reed
Notable Departures: T Joe Staley (retired), DT DeForest Buckner, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Notable Opt-Outs: WR Travis Benjamin
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Bringing in High Upside Replacements for the Players They Lost in the Offseason
The 49ers were dealt a few blows early in the offseason when Joe Staley announced his retirement after 13 seasons with the team, Emmanuel Sanders signed with the Saints in free agency and they were forced to trade DeForest Buckner to the Colts after giving his running mate Arik Armstead a huge new contract in free agency. Remarkably, the 49ers were able to find best case scenario replacements for all of their departed guys.
Trent Williams-who sat out 2019 after Washington refused to honor his trade request-has been in the same borderline Hall of Fame class of left tackle with Staley for the past 7-8 years, rookie Javon Kinlaw, who was ironically selected with the 1st round pick they acquired from the Colts in the Buckner trade, is an explosive interior pass rusher with an absurd ceiling who should fit in nicely next to Armstead and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa on the D-line and rookie Brandon Aiyuk is a certified YAC machine in the short-to-intermediate passing game (his 9.9 YAC led college football last season) like Sanders who also has the top-end speed to burn defenders downfield. This trio should step into these vacated roles admirably right away, which in turn could prevent a crippling weak link capable of derailing this otherwise well-oiled machine full of returning starters on both sides of the ball from emerging.
Biggest Question Mark: Secondary
Despite finishing the season as the top ranking passing defense, the clear vulnerabilities of the 49ers secondary ultimately got exploited big time in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs repeatedly took advantage of their lack of backend speed in the final stages of the game. John Lynch showed faith in his guys after that gutting loss by sticking with the exact same group in 2020, but that willingness to stick to their guns for another year could end up really hurting them.
First off, doing nothing to address the speed problem just seems silly because it's the easily exploitable flaw a secondary have. No matter how hard people try to be physical at the line of scrimmage or play their corners deep to minimize the amount of running, you can't coach your out of way of a defenders inability to run as fast as the opposing receiver. Plus The Chiefs aren't getting any slower anytime soon and more importantly, their divisionmates in Seattle (Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Phillip Dorsett), Arizona (Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella) and LA (Van Jefferson) have some guys that can absolutely fly downfield.
Secondly, a good portion of their success as a group in 2019 came from resurgent seasons from Richard Sherman and K'Waun Williams. Given their injury histories and Sherman's age (32), they can not be counted on to put together another season of that caliber and neither their replacements (Akhello Witherspoon, Emmanuel Moseley) nor their safety play (Jaquiski Tartt, Jimmie Ward) is strong enough to compensate for the absence of that duo's strong play.
Finally, the impact their elite pass rush had in aiding their coverage skills can not be discounted. Having a group upfront that generates constant pressure on the opponents quarterback (98 QB hits and 48 sacks on the year) makes holding receivers in check significantly easier. Even a moderate regression in play from their top corner duo or the pass rush could have a serious negative effect on the overall play of this group.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Overcoming the Mental Hurdles Stemming from Their Super Bowl Loss
With the exception of the 2012/18 Patriots and 2015 Seahawks, teams coming off Super Bowl losses in the past decade tend to take notable dips the following season. Getting so close to the promised land then coming up empty is just about the most soul-crushing and deflating thing that can happen in the world of sports. Since they were in control of the game for almost 3 and a half quarters until the Chiefs came out surging with intensity and urgency in the final 8 minutes of the 4th quarter to earn the comeback win, the 49ers seem like they could be especially vulnerable to succumbing to this tragic trend.
Let's review the painful truths about the end of the game real quick. Jimmy Garoppolo was a jittery mess when it mattered most-throwing 2 picks and several key incompletions late in the game, their defense got absolutely torched in both the run and passing games and their head coach Kyle Shanahan followed up his epic collapse as the Falcons OC in Super Bowl 51 with another choking masterpiece set into motion by his boneheaded, inexplicably aggressive playcalling in the 4th quarter. This type of late game collapse could indicate that there's a severe lack of mental toughness on that team and if that's case, this team can kiss their hopes of being a perennial contender hopes out the window. The talent they have in spades is minimized when an inability to overcome adversity-especially on the biggest stages football has to offer- comes into the equation. The sting of that loss shouldn't go away and if they team can prove that the brutal final 8 minutes of the Super Bowl was just a one-off by weathering the storms this league routinely offers up, they'll be in business.
Bottom Line:
An influx of talent both returning and new makes the 49ers a threat to contend, but I'm not sold on their ability to get past the tremendous sting of that Super Bowl loss.
Seattle Seahawks
2019 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (11th season)
Notable Additions: S Jamal Adams, CB Quinton Dunbar, TE Greg Olsen
Notable Departures: DE Jadveon Clowney, S Bradley McDougald, T George Fant
Notable Opt-Outs: G Chance Warmack
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Landing Jamal Adams in a Trade
The swift deterioration of the relationship between Adams and the Jets gave way to the rare scenario of a rising star in the league ending up on the trading block. The Seahawks ended up winning the sweepstakes for the prized nearly 25-year old 2x All-Pro-who has graded out as the 2nd best safety in the league behind Harrison Smith over the past 2 seasons according to PFF. Landing Adams put an unexpected cherry on top of their efforts to rebuild their ailing secondary that started at the trade deadline last year when they acquired Quandre Diggs from Detroit and continued at the start of this offseason when they added Quinton Dunbar, who graded out as the #1 corner in the league in 2019, in a trade with Washington.
With Adams, they're getting the type of player that can change the complexion of an entire defense. He can makes plays on the ball, provide support in the run game and even get after the quarterback when called upon (12 career sacks including an eye-popping 6.5 last season). That type of versatility at the position is special and by pairing him with Diggs, Dunbar and incumbent top corner Shaq Griffin-who is coming off a career year in 2019-the Seahawks appear to have a rock solid secondary that has all the makings to become one of the best in the league.
Biggest Question Mark: Where is the Pass Rush Going to Come From
After wisely refusing to sign Frank Clark to a long-term deal after franchising him and subsequently trading him to the Chiefs last offseason, the Seahawks acquired Jadevon Clowney's expiring contract in late August to try and solve their pass rushing problems. While Clowney did make an impact overall (particularly against the run), he only mustered 3 sacks and the Seahawks chose to also move on him from him this offseason after he wanted more money than they were to willing to offer him to return to the club.
With Clowney gone, they're stuck in the same situation as last year except they don't have a top 15 defensive end waiting in the wings to replace their departed top pass rusher. The top competitors for this vacant role will be 2019 1st round pick L.J Collier, who is a complete wild card that only played on 14% of their defensive snaps last season, Rasheem Green-who is only in the conversation because he led the team with a whopping 4 sacks last year and old friend Bruce Irvin-who is coming off a bit of a resurgent 8.5 sack campaign with the Panthers. There's also the potential for a boost once defensive tackle Jarran Reed-who picked up 10.5 sacks in 2018 and rookie Darrell Taylor-a raw yet upside-heavy edge prospect that was productive throughout his tenure at the University of Tennessee-return from injury at some point in the year. Improving on their nearly league-worst 28 sack total from 2019 is a low bar to clear, but there's enough uncertainty within their ranks to legitimately question their ability to pull that off.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Russell Wilson Staying Healthy
Since entering the league in 2012, Wilson has amassed a 95-47-1 record (including playoffs) as a starter that includes a Super Bowl title in 2013, no losing seasons to-date and 7 playoff berths in 8 seasons. What makes this run especially impressive is that he's accomplished all that while playing behind some of the worst offensive lines in football history and often being handed a set of weapons that is low on legit NFL talent and even lower on depth. The key to all of that success has been health as Wilson has never missed a start and only dealt with notable ailments (ankle/knee sprains) during the 2016 season.
Considering that he'll be 32 in November and still has to contend with the contestant peril of having a garbage offensive line, maintaining his health is more than important than ever. Any serious or nagging injury could be devastating to the mobility/improvisational skills that makes him such a threat at the position and with several of his top weapons boasting their own lengthy injury histories (D.K Metcalf, Chris Carson, Greg Olsen), he needs to be out there making magic to cover up the losses of these valuable assets (if they go down) as much as he possibly can. As long as Wilson is out there, the Seahawks are going to have a chance to win and that is imperative as he enters the latter stages of his prime with arguably the best supporting cast he's had since 2015.
Bottom Line:
With a defense that should be vastly improved and Russell Wilson still operating in his prime, the Seahawks are in a terrific position go on a run if they can stay healthy and catch a break or two along the way.
Projected Standings:
1.Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2.San Francisco 49ers (9-7)
3.Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
4.Los Angeles Rams (6-10)
