Atlanta Falcons
2019 Record: 7-9 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (6th season)
Notable Additions: RB Todd Gurley, DE Dante Fowler, TE Hayden Hurst
Notable Departures: TE Austin Hooper, RB Devonta Freeman, CB Desmond Trufant
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Their Offense is Still a Powerhouse
As much as there is to criticize about the Falcons organization and their inability to remain a contender after their infamous collapse in Super Bowl 51, the viability of their offense has never been a problem. They've remained a reliable, explosive offense that can rack up chunk plays and probe into the redzone with regularity-even as they've tumbled down from the top to the middle of the NFL hierarchy over the past couple of seasons.
Entering 2020, there's little reason to believe that their days as a offensive powerhouse are going to end right now. Matt Ryan can still sling the ball downfield with precision at 35, Julio Jones has racked up 1,350+ YDS every season since 2014, Calvin Ridley seems poised to shoot up the list of most dangerous WR's in the league in year 3 after missing the final 3 games of the year killed his chances of earning his 1st 1,000+ YD season, and Hayden Hurst, who had a relatively limited role with the Ravens over the past 2 season, is an intriguing replacement for Austin Hooper at TE whose speed/pass-catching skills make him a great fit for this vertical-driven offense. Throw in the wild card of Todd Gurley producing at a level that even somewhat resembles his pre-arthritic knee days after the Rams unceremoniously dumped him 2 years after giving him a huge extension and you have a group that should be able to rival the vast majority of their foes in the NFC.
Biggest Question Mark: Quality of the Defense
If you were to chart out the Falcons defensive rankings over the past several years, you'd see the football data equivalent of an entire theme park's worth of roller coasters. Since Dan Quinn took the job in 2015, they've finished everywhere from 8th (2017) to 14th (2015) to 27th (2016) in scoring defense. Making these erratic finishes even more puzzling is that Quinn played a role in the building of the vaunted Legion of Boom-era Seahawks defenses prior to taking this gig and they've had mainstays during this time (defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, inside linebacker Deion Jones, safety Keanu Neal) that are among the finest players in the league at their respective positions.
While injuries have absolutely contributed to their woes with the likes of Neal, Jones and the now departed Desmond Trufant all missing significant stretches of time over the past few seasons, it's mostly just been bad luck and having some liabilities at key spots be exploited extensively at times (Robert Alford, De'Vondre Campbell and Vic Beasley, who are all no longer with the team, top the list) responsible for their seesaw play.
2020 looks like it has the potential to be another wild, unpredictable year for the Falcons D. Jarrett, Jones and Neal are still in the anchor spots, free agent signing Dante Fowler-who is replacing Beasley on the edge-is coming a career-high 11.5 sack season that may be a case of the #3 overall pick in the 2015 Draft finally starting to realize his potential or just a contract year fluke and their corner group has the potential to be very shaky as they're rolling out a 3rd year player who struggled mightily as a starter last year (Isaiah Oliver), a rookie (A.J. Terrell) and middling veteran who just signed with the team a month ago (Darqueze Dennard) in the top starts to start the year. About the only certainty that exists for this group is that a bottom 10 finish without a playoff spot to show for it would greatly increases the odds of Quinn receiving his walking papers.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Avoiding A Massive Losing Streak
Extensive cold streaks have been a troubling trend since Quinn has been with the Falcons. In the 3 seasons they failed to make the playoffs during his tenure, they've went on 5+ game losing skids during a point of the season that have completely ruined their ability to make the playoffs. Even when that long run of losses is proceeded by a dominant stretch of play like it was last season (their 6-2 finish tied them with the Saints for the best 2nd half record in the NFC), digging that steep of a hole is something that needs to be avoided at all costs. In a year where Quinn is on the hot seat and Tom Brady is taking over the lone team that wasn't a constant threat to win the division over the past decade, they can afford to stoop that level of unacceptable play less than ever. If history repeats itself and they do indeed avoid a prolonged losing streak, a playoff berth, which would be their first since 2017, will be in their future.
Bottom Line:
Their continued defensive uncertainty paired with the strong likelihood of the Buccaneers ascending makes it feel like the Falcons are in store for another middling season.
Carolina Panthers
2019 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Matt Rhule (1st season)
Notable Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, T Russell Okung, WR Robby Anderson
Notable Departures: ILB Luke Kuechly (retired), QB Cam Newton, CB James Bradberry
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Christian McCaffery and D.J. Moore Are Some of the Most Electric Playmakers in the League
Having a single high-octane, highlight reel machine on offense is a valuable gift in today's NFL. Having a pair of them like the Panthers do in McCaffery and Moore have almost feels like cheating. These guys are both elusive, agile speedsters who can make plays in situations where it appears like there's none to be made by putting defenders on skates and fighting through contact to gain extra yards.
The scariest part of all is that they're 24 and 23 respectively, and put up monster numbers with Kyle Allen under center for most of last season-so the potential for them to do even more damage as they continue to develop their games and get a chance to play with a quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater that is at the very least a more efficient/capable game manager than Allen was seems very high.
Biggest Question Mark: Their Plan to Replace Luke Kuechly
Kuechly's surprise retirement at 29 was absolutely gutting to the Panthers organization. This was a guy who not only consistently played at an All-Pro level at a crucial position for 8 seasons, but a model leader that alongside Cam Newton and Ron Rivera gave the Panthers one of the strongest locker rooms in the league for much of the past decade. Asking anyone to replace Kuechly's ridiculous on-field production and strong presence behind-the-scenes isn't fair, but what this new regime has cooked up for a replacement in 2020 is pretty disconcerting.
Picking 7th overall in the draft, there was a golden opportunity to select Kuechly's heir apparent in Isaiah Simmons. Simmons had the combination of exceptional athleticism, instincts and football IQ that arguably no inside linebacker prospect since Kuechly has possessed and felt like the best possible replacement they could've hoped for. Instead, the Panthers opted to take Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown and Simmons ended up landing with the Cardinals at #8. Perhaps even more surprisingly than passing on Simmons in the 1st round, they avoided drafting a linebacker with any of their 7 picks (all were defensive players) and will instead turn to veteran Tahir Whitehead to man Kuechly's old spot this season.
To say the absolute least, Whitehead is a severe downgrade from Kuechly. He's a below average player on his best day and over the past couple of seasons with the Raiders, has been horrendous in pass coverage and run support-which led to the team releasing him in March. Behind Whitehead, will be journeyman Adarious Taylor-who has mostly played on special teams during his 6 year career. It's bizarre and almost reckless to put so little stock in a position that has been such a strength of theirs for so long and don't be surprised if this decision proves to be costly for the overall quality of their defense.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Matt Rhule Being as Advertised
Despite being kind of an off-the-board pick that has just 1 season of NFL experience as the Giants assistant offensive line coach back in 2012 and a college head coaching record of 47-43, football pundits have largely swooned over the hiring of Rhule. From 2013-19, he brought a pair of college football programs (Temple, Baylor) back from the dead and guided them to 10+ win seasons within 2 years of taking over the program. Taking over a 5-11 team that finished a distant 4th in a tough division, Rhule's alleged golden touch will be put to the test right away in Carolina.
This Panthers team have no real strengths outside of the McCaffery/Moore tandem and a lot of questions that need to be answered right away. In addition to the aforementioned inside linebacker mess, Rhule will be tasked with promptly figuring out what corner (incumbent #2 Donte Jackson, free agent pickup Eli Apple, rookie Troy Pride) is going to draw top receiver assignments now that James Bradberry is gone, what the WR hierarchy (Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, Seth Roberts) behind Moore is going to look like, how the interior line-which struggled quite a bit in 2019- can hold up with a confirmed bum like John Miller replacing Trai Turner at left guard and building an almost completely new edge rotation (2019 1st rounder Brian Burns and career backup Marquise Haynes are the only returning pieces) after all of their vets either retired (Wes Horton) or bolted to join their old DC Sean McDermott in Buffalo (Mario Addison, Vernon Butler). Think of it as the NFL equivalent of taking over a 2-win Baylor team, except that the ultimate goal will be much higher than sneaking into the Sugar Bowl after beating no ranked opponents and losing to Georgia by double digits.
Bottom Line:
McCaffery, Moore and Bridgewater are the only things keeping the Panthers off the list of contenders for the worst team in football.
New Orleans Saints
2019 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (14th season)
Notable Additions: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, QB Jameis Winston
Notable Departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, G Larry Warford, S Vonn Bell
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: All of the Key Pieces are Back and Healthy to Make Another Title Run
The Saints dreams of bringing home ring #2 of the Brees/Payton era were crushed yet again last year as they got upset by the Vikings in the Wild Card Round. Well, the good news for Saints fans is that all of the heavy hitters from that squad (Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramcyzk, Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams) that made this team a well-rounded threat on both sides of the ball are back and healthy heading into the season.
Maintaining such a high degree of continuity is a luxury that teams aren't typically afforded and with Kamara, Williams and Davis all hitting free agency after this season and Brees' viability as a starter potentially going away at any moment (more on that in the next section), it's not one they're going to have again-making this their last best chance at a title.
Biggest Question Mark: Drew Brees vs. Father Time
Brees has every reason to be excited for 2020. His already terrific offensive line received another boost by adding rookie mauler Cesar Ruiz at guard, Kamara is back at full health after playing through injuries that slowed him down significantly in 2019 and the addition of a steady, reliable running mate for Thomas in Emmanuel Sanders should make this offense even better than last year when they ranked 3rd in the league. This is of course all contingent on one burning question: Can the 41-year old fight off the undefeated Father Time for another year?
On one hand, he did bounce back seamlessly from the thumb injury that sidelined him for 5 games last season and hasn't declined at all from an accuracy/efficiency standpoint in recent years. On the other, he's at an age where guys start to decline out of the blue (while clearly not even close to an apples-to-apples comparison, Brett Favre ultimately hit a career-ending wall in his year 41 season after a terrific season at 40). Particularly with no preseason to draw predictions from, we're going to be completely in the dark about Brees' viability for 2020 until he takes the field on Sunday afternoon against the Buccaneers.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Not Choking in the Playoffs
Little known fact: Brees and Payton are just 4-6 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 2009. Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh won 7 games including a 4-win run to their title in 2012 during that same stretch and no one is going to remember them with the same reverence as the Saints duo.
As much as the Minneapolis Miracle and the no-call pass interference against the Rams in the 2018 NFC Championship are cited as unlucky breaks, the reality is that the Saints have had several opportunities to put those games in the bag and lacked the mental fortitude/clutch playmaking spark to do so. This team is too good to make excuses for anymore and breaking this cycle of underwhelming postseason play this season is the only way they're going to exit their current place alongside the mid-to-late 80's Bears and late 90's/early 2000's Rams as the greatest failed dynasties in the history of football.
Bottom Line:
If Brees can still play at a high level, the Saints are going to be high on the list of contenders for a fourth straight season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, RB Leonard Fournette
Notable Departures: QB Jameis Winston, WR Breshad Perriman, OLB Carl Nassib
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Tom Brady
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about signing Tom Brady to be your quarterback in 2020. He just turned 43, has regressed in completion % and yards per completion in 3 straight seasons and is coming off a quiet 2019 campaign that ended in his first one-and-done playoff run since 2010.
Concern aside, the Bucs are still exchanging arguably the most volatile quarterback of all time in Jameis Winston for arguably the greatest of all time in Brady and that's pretty fucking exciting for a franchise that hasn't been to the playoffs since 2007. No one knows how Brady is going to fare at this stage of his career, but a team with a deep stockpile of offensive weapons that includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, his old friend Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette, who just signed with the team last Thursday after his surprise release by the Jaguars, is going to give him as good of a chance to continue adding to his legacy as anywhere else in the league.
Biggest Question Mark: Bruce Arians' Ability to Adapt to Brady
After the Bucs landed Brady, the buzz immediately turned to how much he was going to pop under the direction of a brilliant offensive-minded coach in Arians. There's one convenient fact that's been left out of this months-long fawnfest: the system that has brought Arians so much success throughout his NFL career isn't going to fly with Brady. No amount of pliability would be able to save a 43-year old man from the brutal adverse physical effects that stem from Arians' "drop back, chuck deep balls down the field and repeatedly take huge shots from the defense to make explosive plays" approach (ask Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger how they feel about the scars playing under Arians left them with) to offense- especially with an offensive line that's as up-and-down as the Bucs is.
Considering the schematic fit and respect Brady commands, Arians is going to be forced to adapt to the way his new quarterback plays. The quick hitting short-to-intermediate passing game with some runs mixed in system that Brady thrives in couldn't be anymore different than what Arians is used to doing and what makes him such a dynamic offensive mind could end up being stripped away in the process. The cliché of "You can't teach an old dog new tricks" has a tendency of being true in the NFL and Arians' drastic philosophy change (RIP "No risk it, no biscuit") could easily prove to be the latest victim of it.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Not Allowing a Zillion Points Per Game
As expected considering his track record, Todd Bowles did a lot of great work in his 1st season as Bucs DC. He dramatically improved their rush D from 24th to 1st, established a legit pass rush (47 sacks) headed up by Shaq Barrett (league-leading 19.5 sacks) and got numerous young players to take huge steps forward (Vita Vea, Carlton Davis) or start their career on positive notes (Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean). Despite all of those efforts, they were still incredibly vulnerable against the pass (30th in the league) and allowed a ton of points (28.1 ppg, 29th in the league). While part of those woes were due to the constant offensive turnovers spearheaded by Winston's historic 30 INT season, they also had a number of players on the middle/back end of their defense put up dismal performances (Devin White, Andrew Adams, Jordan Whitehead, Mike Edwards, Vernon Hargreaves-who was cut in mid-November) that made them easy to attack despite the standout performances of others.
Heading into 2020, Bowles will look to put his old DB coach skills to work to help solidify that same pass defense that got them in trouble a year ago. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr, who is replacing Adams as the starting strong safety, is a potential ballhawk that could help solve their coverage/takeaway problems, White- who was a star in coverage at LSU-should be in a better place to show off his potential now that he has a better understanding of the ropes of the position in the pros and the impact of having Dean and Murphy-Bunting start for a full season on the overall productivity of their corner group will be something worth watching closely. Asking Brady to pull off shootout victories every week isn't feasible at this point of his career and the only way that happens is if this defense improves to the point where they're not allowing their opponents to erupt for 30+ points on a weekly basis.
Bottom Line:
With Tom Brady joining the fold, there's a good chance that the Buccaneers 13 year playoff drought comes to an end.
Projected Standings:
1.New Orleans Saints (12-4)
2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
3.Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
4.Carolina Panthers (4-12)
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