Chicago Bears
2019 Record: 8-8 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (3rd season)
Notable Additions: QB Nick Foles, DE/OLB Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham
Notable Departures: G Kyle Long (retired), OLB Leonard Floyd, ILB Nick Kwiatkoski
Notable Opt-Outs: DT Eddie Goldman, S Jordan Lucas
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Return of Akiem Hicks
Contrary to some narratives that detailed their demise, the Bears had another good defense in 2019. They ranked 9th in the league against both the run and pass and allowed just 18.3 points per game (#4 scoring defense). The top thing that prevented them from hitting the elite form they displayed in 2018 was their struggles to generate a pass rush and the early season injury to Akiem Hicks was a large reason why they failed to reach those heights.
While Khalil Mack is the face of this group, Hicks is every bit as pivotal to their overall success. Hicks is a top-tier interior disruptor who blows up plays in the backfield and makes quarterbacks deeply uncomfortable (he registered an impressive 24 sacks and 53 QB hits from 2016-18). Without his presence for nearly 12 games last year, the Bears lack of secondary pass rushing skills got exposed and they could essentially neutralize their ability to get after the quarterback entirely if they just threw all of their free blockers on Mack (no one aside from Mack and Nick Williams finished the season with more than 3 sacks).
Hicks coming back presumably healthy could have huge ramifications on the entire defense. Lanes could open up for guys like Roy Robertson-Harris, Bilal Nichols and big ticket free agent signing Robert Quinn to make plays in the backfield, Mack wouldn't have the damn near impossible job of trying to fight through a quarter of the guys on the field to make plays and perhaps most importantly, their secondary that features a pair of new starters (rookie corner Jaylon Johnson, safety Deon Bush) would have a somewhat easier time doing their job. If Hicks can put up a vintage performance, a return to something that resembles the dominant form they displayed in 2018 could be in the cards.
Biggest Question Mark: Being Able to Get a Quarterback That Can Produce
The biggest question with the Bears isn't who is going to win the quarterback battle between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky, it's can they actually get some production out of the position. This team has enough defensive firepower and skill position talent (Tarik Cohen, Anthony Miller, Jimmy Graham, Ted Ginn and of course, their disturbingly underrated top WR Allen Robinson) to be in the hunt if they had a guy under center who was even somewhat reliable.
What's interesting about this QB competition is that both of these guys are desperate to impress in what could be their last chance to grab hold of a starting quarterback gig in the NFL. Foles is hungry to prove that he knows how to play the position somewhere outside of Philadelphia while Trubisky is looking to break free of his reputation as the working stiff that got drafted before royalty Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
There's also slight glimmers of hope poking through the thick clouds of doubt surrounding both of them (Foles' ballsy play with the Eagles, Trubisky's knack for making big time throws at key times) that makes their quest to make an unexpected breakthrough seem possible. The entire fanbase will be eagerly awaiting to see who Matt Nagy picks to get the first crack (it appears like it's going to be Trusbisky) to possibly turn both their own and this long quarterback-plagued franchise's destinies around.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Offensive Line Play
The area of the Bears offense that I feel hasn't gotten nearly enough criticism for their horrible play last season is their offensive line. After being a generally competent group in the prior few seasons, the group pretty much imploded right out of the gate in 2019. Things got a bit better down the stretch when James Daniels switched from center to left guard in mid-November, but they were still unacceptably bad, particularly in the run game (see David Montgomery's 3.7 YD and Tarik Cohen's 3.3 YD per carry average), for most of the season.
While keeping all five starters from a group that struggled so much would usually be reason for alarm, there's a strong enough track record with this group (outside of 4th year guard Rashaad Coward-who was a huge liability in his 10 starts last season) to believe that a rebound is possible. Daniels actually graded out as one of the best guards in the league for the last 8 games of the season last year according to PFF, Cody Whitehair had been a good-to-great center prior to his career-worst campaign in 2019 and their tackle tandem (Charles Leno Jr, Bobby Massie), despite the occasional brutal lapse, have been solid enough on the whole to be able to trust in most situations. You can't give your quarterback a chance to succeed or cover up poor quarterback play with a rushing attack like they did in 2018 if the guys upfront can't create lanes, so don't be surprised if the play of this group is what ultimately dictates the fate of this team in 2020.
Bottom Line:
There's a path to excellence for Bears if a few things fall into place, but knowing this franchise, they'll another 6-8 win season is far more feasible.
Detroit Lions
2019 Record: 3-12-1 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Patricia (3rd season)
Notable Additions: CB Desmond Trufant, T Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OLB Jamie Collins
Notable Departures: CB Darius Slay, G Graham Glasgow, T Ricky Wagner
Notable Opt-Outs: C Russell Bodine, WR Geronimo Allison
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: A Healthy Matthew Stafford
Stafford's impressive ironman run of 16 game seasons from 2011-18 came to an end when he was diagnosed with fractures in his upper thoracic spine that caused him to miss the final 8 games of the season. In his absence, the dream team of Jeff Driskel and David Blough caused the offense to completely flounder and won a combined total of 0 games.
With Stafford returning, the Lions will look to get back into the hunt in the NFC North. Outside of 2012, the Lions have won at least 6 games in the seasons where Stafford has started every game and especially considering the weapons he has at his disposal right now (Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., T.J. Hockenson, rookie running back D'Andre Swift-who could finally put a stop to the post-Barry Sanders hex the Lions have had at the position), he could even be primed to have one of the best seasons of his career at 32. In a division where Kirk Cousins has to play quality opponents more than twice a year, Aaron Rodgers may be aging out of dominance and the Bears continue to look for a guy who can complete a quick slant on 3rd and 3 in the 1st quarter with some degree of consistency, Stafford could end up being the best QB in the NFC North and willing this team to a surprising division title run in the process .
Biggest Question Mark: Matt Patricia's Job Security
The beginning of Patricia's head coaching career hasn't gone well to say the least. After inheriting a 9-7 team from Jim Caldwell, Patricia has come in and made a team that had been competitive the prior 4 seasons much worse. A combination of his hardo Belichick-lite mentality that has alienated the locker room, poor situational awareness that has cost the team close games and an almost comical failure to improve the defense has resulted in Lions securing back-to-back last place finishes in the division including a miserable 2019 season where they lost 12 of their last 13 games following a 2-0-1 start. There was even reportedly some internal debate to cut him loose after last season, which is pretty wild since no Lions coach has been canned after 2 seasons since Marty Mornhinweg put up a 5-27 record from 2001-02.
Pair all of those problems with the heightened expectations to win now with Stafford in a strangely wide open NFC North and Sheila Ford Hamp taking over ownership control from her mother Martha Firestone Ford, and we could see a quicker than usual hook from the Lions if Patricia struggles yet again.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Defense Keeping Them in Games
No one can dispute the Lions offensive firepower. They have some of the league's most lethal vertical threats in Golladay and Jones Jr. and even last year with Stafford missing half of the games, they still ranked 18th in scoring offense. However, that offensive prowess doesn't mean much if your defense keeps allowing you to finish on the wrong s de of a shootout, which is exactly what happened last year when the shaky play of their 26th ranked scoring defense resulted in them dropping a lot of close games (9 of their 12 losses were by 10 points or less).
With Stafford back and running out of time to capitalize on his prime years, Patricia is going to have to finally put that decorated defensive pedigree that earned him this gig to use. Being the nice friend that he is, GM Bob Quinn went on a full-on blitz to stock the cupboards with as much talent as possible in the offseason to try and improve a group that was particularly bad against the pass (dead last in the league) and getting after the quarterback (28 sacks-tied for 2nd least in the league). They replaced disgruntled veteran Darius Slay with rookie Jeff Okudah-who is a tough, disciplined corner with true lockdown potential, added some much-needed depth pieces to their defensive line (Nick Williams, Danny Shelton, rookie Julian Okwara), brought in some more solid ex-Patriots (Duron Harmon, Jamie Collins) that have enjoyed success in Patricia's system in the past to join last year's big additions Trey Flowers and Justin Coleman and replaced Paul Pasqualoni at DC with Cory Undlin-a veteran DB coach with a solid track record who most recently worked with the Eagles.
While there's some potential for huge hiccup spots including inside linebacker-where Jarrad Davis and Christian Jones were flat-out awful last season, and real danger in trusting a rookie in Okudah and oft-injured Desmond Trufant to be the top corners, there's also no question that this is the deepest and most skilled defensive group Patricia has gotten to work with since he's been in Detroit. As long as he can get this group to be respectable, Patricia should be able to save his job.
Bottom Line:
The Lions are a talented crapshoot of a team that could win anywhere between 4 and 12 games that I choose not to trust because I think Patricia is an incompetent bozo..
Green Bay Packers
2019 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt LaFluer (2nd season)
Notable Additions: T Ricky Wagner, ILB Christian Kirksey, WR Devin Funchess
Notable Departures: T Bryan Bulaga, ILB Blake Martinez, TE Jimmy Graham
Notable Opt-Outs: WR Devin Funchess
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Their Defense is on the Cusp of Being Elite
After 3 straight finishes in the bottom 12 of scoring defenses, the Packers finally came to life in a big way in 2019. The Smith Brothers (Za'Darius, Preston) gave them the fearsome pass rush they'd lacked over the prior few seasons, Kenny Clark put together another quietly productive season (62 tackles, 6 sacks) that raised him further up the defensive tackle hierarchy, Jaire Alexander further realized his shutdown corner potential (17 pass breakups, 2 INT's, 56.1 CMP % allowed) in year 2 and their new safety tandem (Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage) stepped up and made plays at all levels of the field. The collective efforts of these players was enough for them to finish 9th in the league in scoring defense (19.6 ppg allowed), which provided them with a huge lift during a season where there offense was middling-to-decent.
With all of their aforementioned key pieces and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine returning, another leap forward seems likely. Every member of their corps is 28 or younger and both Clark and Alexander appear to be at the point of their careers where they ascend from promising young players to full blown stars. Really the only things standing in their way of becoming an uncontested top-tier defense is relying on ex-Brown Christian Kirksey-who has alternated between being sidelined with injuries for extended periods of time and playing very poorly since 2017-to replace the middling yet reliable Blake Martinez at inside linebacker and Kevin King continuing to get picked on at the other corner spot alongside Alexander. Even with those couple of potentially glaring weak spots, the future of this defense appears to be very bright.
Biggest Question Mark: Was Last Season's Success a Fluke?
The 2019 Packers were odd to watch. While they were a 13-3 team that made it all the way to the NFC Championship that pulled off some impressive feats including a season sweep of the Vikings and a huge road victory over the Chiefs, they never played like a team with such an excellent record. They often won close games in the ugliest ways imaginable, Aaron Rodgers was the most mortal he'd looked since his debut season as a starter back in 2008, Matt LaFluer never came across as a particularly impressive coach and as good as their defense was, they had some holes that could be exploited (i.e. what the 49ers did to them on the ground in both of their meetings).
As I sit here and try to prognosticate the 2020 season, I think it's fair to question whether or not this team is a perennial contender. They got a lot of lucky breaks (top example: That aforementioned win over the Chiefs came during Patrick Mahomes' 2 game absence with a hyperextended knee) last year, their refusal to further invest in the receiver position in the offseason outside of Devin Funchess-who missed all of 2019 with a broken collarbone and has since opted-out of the season because of the 'Rona-is just baffling and LaFluer's vanilla offense feels like it could hit a wall at any time. These concerns are only intensified by the fact that they play in a gauntlet of a division that has had a different champion in each of the last 5 seasons and are tasked with playing a pretty difficult schedule that includes tilts with the Saints, Eagles and their tormentors in San Francisco. Getting out of that opening pre-bye week stretch (Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Lions) with a winning record could go a long way in figuring out if this team is for real.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Aaron Rodgers Putting Together a Vintage Season
We saw an oddly restrained and conservative Aaron Rodgers last year. He didn't let the ball rip downfield very often and was often an afterthought as Aaron Jones led the way on offense. These changes in tendencies and usage led to Rodgers posting some of the lowest TD (26) and yardage totals (4,002) he's ever had in a season that wasn't significantly shortened by injury.
It's easy to believe that this is the new normal for Rodgers. He's going to be 37 in December and unlike many of his elite peers that have fought off Father Time for so long, he's had a bunch of injuries and relies on his athletic gifts to make plays-so a transition to a more conservative style makes sense as he enters the final stages of his Hall of Fame career. However, there is one thing that could fuel him to throw this strategy out the window.
The Packers stunned the football world when they selected Jordan Love in the 1st round of this year's draft and as much as they've downplayed the move, using a high draft pick on a QB indicates that the organization believes Rodgers is on the last legs of his career. The belief from the team that he's washed could give Rodgers the juice to dig deep and relive his deep ball-ripping glory days.
Rodgers strikes me as the kind of guy who can rid petty motivation to a resurgence and there'd be no better way to prove them wrong by exploding with a passing attack led by Davante Adams, Jones and a bunch of unproven spare parts they found on the league's metaphorical scrap heap (Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Turner). Jimmy Garoppolo's arrival in New England in 2014 is believed to have brought Tom Brady back to life after a bit of a skid (by his standards) in the early-2010's and I can absolutely see the same thing happening to Rodgers.
Bottom Line:
With a middling coach and talented yet not overly imposing roster, it's hard for me to buy the Packers as a viable contender.
Minnesota Vikings
2019 Record: 10-6 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (7th season)
Notable Additions: DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Michael Pierce, WR Tajae Sharpe
Notable Departures: WR Stefon Diggs, DE Everson Griffen, CB Xavier Rhodes
Notable Opt-Outs: DT Michael Pierce
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: The Late Addition of Yannick Ngakoue
Adding players late into training camp, especially during a year with a shortened offseason, is usually a risk that doesn't pay off. However, in the last couple of seasons, we've seen Khalil Mack and Jadevon Clowney go onto to thrive despite not participating in camp and being with their new team for about a week before the season started. Ngakoue, who was acquired from the Jaguars earlier this week, will look to be the next guy to pull this quick transition off.
Ngakoue is a downright fantastic addition to this Vikings front. Not only does he make up for the lost production of Everson Griffen, the burst and power that has made him a consistently threatening pass-rusher (37.5 sacks, 85 QB hits, 14 forced fumbles in 4 seasons) since he entered the league paired with his still developing skill set at the age of 25 represents a notable upgrade over the longtime Viking staple at a key spot. Throwing him next to the rising star Danielle Hunter, who registered 14.5 sacks in 2019 (tied for 4th most in the league) suddenly puts the Vikings in contention for the most lethal edge tandem in the league. Good luck to the brave souls who have to try to contain this pass rush.
Biggest Question Mark: Cornerback
By releasing Xavier Rhodes after another terrible season and letting Trae Waynes and Mackenise Alexander walk in free agency, the Vikings are in the unique position of being without their top 3 corners from the previous season. Due to cap problems preventing them from pursing any veteran help in free agency, they turned to the draft to round out their CB room selecting Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler and Harrison Hand in the 1st, 3rd and 5th rounds respectively. The rookies will fight for immediate playing time along 3rd year players Mike Hughes and Holton Hill-who are projected to start Week 1.
What makes this situation scary is that there's no proven veteran options to fall back on. Hill and Hughes are the group's de facto elder statesman at the age of 23 with a combined 9 NFL starts between them. Gambling that all of these guys are ready to play despite their inexperience would be fine if this was a rebuilding squad, but this is a nearly perennial playoff team that's trying to win a title now and can't afford to have a group of corners that can be easily exploited. Young players with tantalizing upside won't mean shit if they're getting crucified by the likes of Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson every week. Getting this group to not break the backs of this otherwise talent-rich defense will be among the most difficult challenges Mike Zimmer has faced in his entire career.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Rushing Attack Continuing to Be a Huge Factor:
The Vikings went from respectable to very good when they started to heavily lean on Dalvin Cook and the rushing game to drive their offense after a 2-2 start that including a pair of ugly performances from Kirk Cousins. With a big blow to their receiver depth with the trade of Stefon Diggs and a collection of inexperienced guys (Justin Jefferson, Irv Smith Jr., Bisi Johnson, Chad Beebe) vowing to replace him as Adam Thielen's sidekick, the rushing attack will even more imperative to their overall success as an offense.
Given his past track record, new OC Gary Kubiak is going to keep pounding the rock and since the Vikings were already utilizing his signature zone blocking scheme (departed OC Kevin Stefanski is a Kubiak protégé), there's likely going to be no noticeable changes to the way they do business. Where the potential for things to not go as smoothly come into the play is with the on-field execution portion of the operation.
This offensive line (Riley Rieff, Garret Bradbury, Pat Elflein, Dakota Dozier, Brian O'Neil) is shaky enough that this lineman-friendly offense might not even be able to cover up their individual deficiencies and in addition to his ever-present injury concerns, there's a belief that Cook might not be fully engaged heading into the season as he was reportedly displeased about the Vikings refusal to give him an extension in the offseason. Expect Kubiak to work and scheme relentlessly to find a way to get the running game going, regardless of how many personnel shifts it takes (don't be surprised if Alexander Mattison ends up earning a significant role).
Bottom Line:
Even with relatively limited offensive arsenals and tremendous uncertainty at corner, the Vikings are the most talented team in the NFC North and should be considered the frontrunner to win the division crown..
Projected Standings:
1.Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
2.Green Bay Packers (8-8)
3.Chicago Bears (7-9)
4.Detroit Lions (6-10)
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