Denver Broncos
2019 Record: 7-9 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Vic Fangio (2nd season)
Notable Additions: RB Melvin Gordon, DT Jurrell Casey, CB A.J Bouye
Notable Departures: CB Chris Harris Jr., C Connor McGovern, QB Joe Flacco
Notable Opt-Outs: T Ja'Wuan James
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: They're Attempting to Become the Rocky Mountain Version of the Chiefs
Broncos fans have watched in horror as their rivals in Kansas City have evolved into the most explosive, dynamic offense in football over the past 2 seasons. After watching the Chiefs "flood the field with speed and weapons and see who can stop us" approach land them their 1st Super Bowl victory since 1969, the Broncos decided that they needed to apply this philosophy to their offense.
With somewhat of a foundation already in place with big armed quarterback Drew Lock, vertical/redzone threat Courtland Sutton and super athletic tight end Noah Fant on their roster, this offseason marked the next phase of operation "Become the Rocky Mountain Chiefs".
This effort started with the hiring of Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator in January. While Shurmur's 2 year head coaching stint with the Giants was pretty ugly on the whole, he did do some decent work with Daniel Jones a season ago and his pretty strong pedigree as an OC-which most notably includes briefly turning Case Keenum into a solid NFL starter with the 2017 Vikings-makes him a good choice to run an aggressive-minded offense.
Naturally, this plan started to really take shape when the offseason started. Free agency saw the additions of Melvin Gordon and Graham Glasgow. Although there are concerns over his work ethic and durability, Gordon is usually a productive dual-threat back when healthy that should complement a tough runner like Phillip Lindsay well while Glasgow is a strong pass-protecting guard accustomed to playing in pass-happy offenses after spending the past 4 seasons with the Lions.
Fast forward to the draft where the Broncos surprised some insiders by doubling up on receivers (Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler) with their top picks. Jeudy is a versatile weapon with the size (6'1, 193 lbs) precise route running and YAC ability to be deployed at any receiver spot/area of the field and with his top-end speed, Hamler is a natural fit for the downfield burner role that is crucial on any high-powered offense. Rounding out the top of their draft class was Lloyd Cushenberry, an agile, athletic interior line piece who is expected to start at center right away and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, a raw yet physically imposing (6'5, 255 lbs) pass-catching specialist who played with Lock at Mizzou.
Given the youth of just about all of these pieces, there's a huge degree of volatility to this entire operation, but the sheer prospect of building an offense that's loaded with potentially explosive playmakers bring a level of intrigue that hasn't been associated with this team since they won the Super Bowl in 2014.
Biggest Question Mark: Drew Lock
Overwhelming opponents with a deep arsenal of weapons that are a threat to make explosive plays at any time won't matter at all if the quarterback can't get them the ball.
The reality is that Lock is a full blown enigma at this point of his career. Him leading the Broncos to a 4-1 finish to the 2019 season was a pleasant surprise that injected life into an offense that was largely sluggish with the ailing Joe Flacco under center in the prior 11 games. The problem is you can't put too much stock into that run. He mostly defeated bad-to-middling teams (Lions, Chargers, Raiders) and was often not the catalyst behind those victories with the notable exception of a lights out performance (22/27, 309 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT) against the AFC South champion Texans in Week 13. Plus inconsistency was Lock's calling card at Mizzou (particularly against top level competition) and we got a glimpse at just how ugly his bad side can be in his lone NFL loss thus far against the Chiefs (18/40, 0 TD, 1 INT, FUM). The Broncos better hope Lock is more good than bad in year 2 because not only is their success largely riding on being an offensive powerhouse, they have no veteran insurance to bail him out in case things go horribly wrong (ex-Bengals/Lions backup Jeff Driskel, who possesses a wonderful 1-7 record as a starter, is currently behind Lock on the depth chart).
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Secondary Play
The steadiest part of the Broncos as they've fallen into mediocrity in the years following their Super Bowl win has been the play of their secondary. The likes of Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby kept receivers locked down as they racked up top 5 finishes in passing defense while their offense completely sputtered under a collection of dud quarterbacks (Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Keenum). Even last year with injuries forcing several different combinations on the back end, they mustered an 11th place finish. With Harris Jr. leaving for the Chargers in free agency and a slew of questions surrounding their returning starters, there's real uncertainty within this group for the first time in ages.
Vic Fangio and secondary coach Renaldo Hill have several challenges to navigate when it comes to this group. First off, their top corners both have concerns that outweigh their proven talent. Trade acquisition A.J. Bouye was essentially given away by the Jaguars after following up his 2017 All-Pro campaign with back-to-back underwhelming seasons and Bryce Callahan missed all of 2019 after having complications recovering from the foot surgery he had following the 2018 season.
Their insurance options at the position are even shakier as Issac Yiadom allowed an alarming 70.4% of the passes he was targeted on to be completed in his 8 starts last season, Duke Dawson was somehow even worse than Yiadom (75% completion allowed) in limited action last season (3 starts) and rookie Michael Ojemudia is a developmental prospect hat's a long shot to contribute right away.
At safety, they have to worry about a tandem that was perhaps the best in football last season keeping that level of play up. Kareem Jackson just turned 32 and is looking at the real possibility of his agility/ball skills starting to diminish while Justin Simmons was a merely above average player until his monster campaign last season that earned him All-Pro/Pro Bowl honors (the team wisely franchised him this offseason to see if he's worth investing in long term). The raw talent is certainly there and having a front 7 that's anchored by Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and the newly-added interior disruptor Jurrell Casey will help matters, but it's going to take some strong coaching and a little luck for this group to maintain their streak of reliable pass defenses.
Bottom Line:
The Broncos are an intriguing wild card team that could be anything from a dark horse contender to the worst team in the division depending on the performance of their youth-driven offense.
Kansas City Chiefs
2019 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (8th season)
Notable Additions: G Kelechi Osemele, T Mike Remmers, S Tedric Thompson
Notable Departures: CB Kendall Fuller, P Dustin Colquitt, G Stefen Wisniewski
Notable Opt-Outs: G Laurent DuVernay-Tardif, RB Damien Williams
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Almost All of Last Year's Super Bowl Winning Team is Returning
Usually when a team wins a Super Bowl, there's a long line of guys who cash in on their championship glory elsewhere. The Chiefs became the first team in a number of years to avoid that dreaded mass exodus of key pieces. Corner Kendall Fuller, guard Stefen Wisniewski, punter Dustin Colquitt, tackle Cameron Erving, defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah and inside linebacker Reggie Ragland are the only notable contributors from last year's team to not return, and no one outside of Colquitt started in more than 8 games in last season.
Being able to maintain your entire corps-particularly when many of them are either still ascending young stars (Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill), in the middle of their primes (Travis Kelce, Tyrann Mathieau) or 2nd/3rd year players (Charvarius Ward, Juan Thornhill, Mecole Hardman) that could be on the verge of turning into something really special is an extreme luxury as well as a nightmarish obstacle for their contending foes to overcome.
Biggest Question Mark: Figuring Out Their Interior Offensive Line
While offensive line play hasn't been a strength of the Chiefs in recent years, it also hasn't been a liability. The group has gotten by with acceptable play-save for outstanding right tackle Mitchell Schwartz-that hasn't threatened their ability to make huge plays or put Mahomes in constant danger of taking huge shots. That cozy competency is taking a huge hit with the absence of both guards (Laurent DuVernay-Tardif, Stefen Wisniewski) that started in the Super Bowl heading into 2020. DuVernay-Tardif has been a reliable enough fixture on the Chiefs line since 2015 and despite not getting significant run during the season, Wisnewski was able to stabilize the group during the stretch/playoff run after the struggling Austin Wylie got benched.
With this shakeup, the Chiefs have had full-blown battles for the starting guard spots during training camp. Wylie will be fighting to win his job back against 2nd year player Nick Allegretti-who appeared in 7 games last season with no starts while DuVernay-Tarif's opt-out has launched a battle between last minute free agent pickup Kelechi Osemele and career backup Ryan Hunter. Given Wylie's struggles down the stretch last season, Osemele's steady fall from grace in recent years and the lack of experience of Allegretti/Hunter, there's no really inspiring options in the bunch, but figuring out the best combo to roll out next to center Austin Reiter on the interior could end up making or breaking the Chiefs repeat title efforts.
Key to Reaching their Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes Maintaining The Level of Excellence He's Established Thus Far
Mahomes has won an MVP, a Super Bowl and thrown for 5,000 YDS/50 TD in his first 2 seasons as a starter, so there's not really a height he can ascend to after that kind of statement introduction to the NFL. Instead what the Chiefs need to hope for is that he can keep being that type of force moving forward after accomplishing so much so quickly.
While there's absolutely no reason to believe that Mahomes is going to suddenly lose his edge, you have to at least entertain the possibility the domination will fade. What he's done over the past 2 seasons has been completely absurd and it's possible that he just can't maintain that level of play moving forward or the league finally figures out a way to slow him down.
The good news is that it's hard to envision a scenario where Mahomes is out there making big plays and delivering in crunch time that the Chiefs aren't contending for championships. The poise and refusal to give up alongside the immense physical gifts is something that doesn't comes along too often and at just 24 going on 25 years old with the best offensive mind in the league and a collection of weapons by his side (Hill, Kelce, Hardman, Sammy Watkins, rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire-who has won raves out of camp) alongside him, it feels like we could be witnessing the start of an iconic career.
Bottom Line:
With all of their key pieces returning, the Chiefs have an excellent chance of repeating as Super Bowl Champions.
Las Vegas Raiders
2019 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (3rd season)
Notable Additions: ILB Corey Littleton, ILB Nick Kwiatowski, S Damarious Randall
Notable Departures: S Karl Joseph, CB Daryl Worley, ILB Tahir Whitehead
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Influx of New Defensive Talent
Despite finishing 24th in scoring defense, there was some notable improvement from their bottom ranked group in 2018. Maxx Crosby brought some much-needed juice off the edge totaling 10 sacks as a rookie, strong interior defensive line play propelled them to the 8th ranked rush defense and Trayvon Mullen started to show signs down the stretch that he could turn into a starting-caliber cornerback somewhere down the line. As nice as that step forward was, they still had plenty of problem spots that they needed to address and that's exactly what Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden did this offseason.
Armed with the luxury of having ample cap space, the Raiders acted aggressively to add talent all over the defense. Carl Nassib is a tough, disciplined edge presence that can thrive as a rotational player, Damarious Randall is a rangey safety that can make plays all over the field, safety Jeff Heath was a reliable cover guy throughout his tenure with the Cowboys and a trio of additions (Corey Littleton, Nick Kwiatowski, Rakewon McMillan) should bring some much-needed coverage and tackling prowess to the linebacker position that has been the weakest link of Paul Gunther's group over the past 2 seasons.
They also added Damon Arnette in the 1st round of the draft, who appears to be line to start after the surprise cut of projected starter Prince Amukamara yesterday and will be welcoming back safety Johnathan Abram after a rotator cuff and labrum tear kept the hard-hitting safety on the sidelines for almost the entirety of his rookie campaign. Given all of these new pieces, another sizable jump seems like it could be in the cards.
Biggest Question Mark: Wide Receiver Production
Darren Waller's breakout 2019 campaign (90 REC/1,145 YDS/3 TD) was a great redemption story for a guy who battled substance abuse problems for the first few years of his career. However, his status as the lone reliable receiver due to lackluster play from their WR's (#2 option Tyrell Williams only mustered 651 YDS in 14 games) severely limited what they could do as an offense and made scoring TD's in the redzone very difficult (their 52.8% redzone TD percentage was tied for 22nd in the league).
While the internal buzz that Josh Jacobs will be more involved in the passing game this year after catching just 20 passes as a rookie would certainly help matters, solving the Raiders passing attack problems is ultimately going to come down to some receiver stepping up and establishing themselves as a reliable option. However, this may be an unattainable ask considering the personnel they have at the position.
Williams is an oft-injured outside receiver that's never been better than average during his career (update: it was just confirmed that the shoulder injury he suffered in practice last week is a torn labrum that will require season-ending surgery), Hunter Renfrow showed some flashes as a slot option last season, but there's serious questions about whether or not he can make plays after the catch at the professional level, free agent pickup Nelson Agholor proved last season with the Eagles that his hands are far too shaky to be an NFL starter and despite having much better hands/route-running ability than the typical 4.2 speedster, rookie Henry Ruggs is still predominantly a vertical threat that may not be a good schematic fit for this old school conservative offense. Their Week 1 depth chart could provide some needed insight into what guys they believe have the best chances of stepping up to fill this huge void.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Derek Carr Taking Chances
The raw numbers Derek Carr has put up during Gruden's 2 years with the Raiders paint the picture of a pretty strong NFL quarterback. He's had back-to-back 4,000+ YD seasons (the 1st 2 of his career), a good TD/INT split (40/18) and very impressive completion percentage (69.7%). While the stat sheet has shown a successful adjustment to Gruden's highly efficient short-to-intermediate passing attack, the win column still leaves a lot to be desired as Carr has went 11-21 during this period.
As much as Carr's accuracy has improved, he's yet to shake the passive approach he's utilized since suffering the back injury that shortened his borderline MVP season in 2016. While he doesn't need to become some Patrick Mahomes/Aaron Rodgers-type who just slings the ball downfield 70 times a game, he can't keep exclusively dinking and dunking and expect significantly different results. Higher risk throws are needed to not only bring dynamism to this offense, but to prove that he can lead this team out of a shitty situation if they go down big early in a game. Carr was able to make big downfield throws in the past and if he dug deep enough to get over whatever mental block is preventing him from rolling the dice from time to time, I'm sure that he could again. Checkdown-only passers that work in tandem with a strong rushing game don't work without an elite defense and the Raiders sure as hell don't fall into that category in 2020, so if he wants to taste the playoffs ever again-he's going to have to start making throws that might cost him his excellent completion percentage with increased regularity.
Bottom Line:
New city, same old average Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
2019 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC Weset)
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (4th season)
Notable Additions: CB Chris Harris Jr., T Bryan Bulaga, DT Linval Joseph
Notable Departures: QB Phillip Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, T Russell Okung
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Adding Chris Harris Jr. to an Already Stacked Secondary
Even with the brutal long-term loss of 2018 All-Pro Derwin James prior to the start of the season for the 2nd straight year, the Chargers still appear to be line to be among the most dominant passing defenses in the league. A group that was already led by Casey Hayward and Desmond King managed to add another elite cover corner in Chris Harris Jr. to their ranks in free agency. In a division with Patrick Mahomes, there's no such thing as having too many quality corners and having a 3 headed snake at such a crucial position will make things easier for both their front 7 that's trying to get back on track after only mustering 30 sacks in 2019 (11.5 of which came from Joey Bosa) and a safety group that's looking at a pair of new starters (Nasir Adderely, TBD replacement for James) to kick off the season in the wake of James' meniscus injury.
Biggest Question Mark: Austin Ekeler's Impact in the Rushing Game
Ekeler was one of the breakout players of 2019-registering a remarkable 92 catches for 993 YDS and 8 TD's while adding another 552 YDS and 3 TD's on the ground. These efforts earned the 25-year old a 4-year/$24.5 mil extension in March and compelled the Chargers to move on from Melvin Gordon after 5 seasons.
Following last season, there's no doubt that Ekeler can be a meaningful contributor to an offense. However, there are still concerns over his ability's to make a huge impact in the rushing game. As healthy as his career YPC id (4.8), it remains to be seen if he candle an extensive workload as a rusher. His career high in carries is only 132 (which also marked his worst YPC total thus far with 4.2) and given his smallish stature (5'10, 200lbs) for the position, he's struggled to find sustained success running between the tackles. While the likely improvement along the offensive line following the offseason additions of Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner could allow for Ekeler to get more opportunities on the ground, a situation where either Justin Jackson or rookie Joshua Kelley comes in and handles at least half of the carries so Ekeler focus on being a factor in the passing game wouldn't be a surprise at all.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Steady Quarterback Play
Say what you want about Phillip Rivers' lackluster playoff resume or erratic judgement, but he was an ironman who was among the 10 best quarterbacks in the league for the bulk of his 16 seasons with the Chargers. The extended stability he provided this organization under center will undoubtedly be missed as they head into their next chapter.
Fighting for the vacant job will be incumbent backup Tyrod Taylor and this year's top draft pick Justin Herbert. Taylor is expected to be the Week 1 starter courtesy of both his solid play as a starter (23-21-1 career record in) in the past and Herbert's status as a guy who probably needs a redshirt season before, but Taylor will obviously be operating on a short leash if he does he indeed get the nod over Herbert for the starting job.
Regardless of who ends up playing, they're going to need steady play from the quarterback spot if they want to get anywhere this year. Between their solid arsenal of weapons (Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams), pretty universally sound defense and an offensive line that shouldn't be nearly as wretched as they have been in the past several years, there's a path to a wild card spot if the QB just comes out and doesn't make a ton of mistakes.
This is where Taylor feels like he could be an asset. He proved he could win ugly during his time with the Bills and if the smart, turnover-averse with the occasional splash play style he utilized there can make its way to the West Coast, the Chargers could be a pesky team that fights to the bitter end for a playoff spot.
Bottom Line:
While I do believe they'll improve from last season's dismal 5-11 campaign, the toughness of the AFC West and presence of too many other bubble contenders makes a return to the playoffs seem pretty unlikely.
Projected Standings:
1.Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
2.Denver Broncos (9-7)
3.Las Vegas Raiders (7-9)
4.Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)
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