Chicago Bears
2023 Record: 3-14 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (2nd season)
Notable Additions: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, OLB T.J. Edwards, G Nate Davis
Notable Departures: RB David Montgomery, T Riley Reiff, ILB Nicholas Morrow
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Ryan Poles Invested Big Time in the Team
When Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles were brought in as the new head coach and general manager of the Bears in January 2022, the deal was that their 1st season was going to be a transition year where they focused on developing young players in order to fully commit to their rebuilding efforts and in 2023 once they acquired a sizable amount of cap space upon all the dead money from the likes of Khalil Mack, Nick Foles and Danny Treavathan's clearing the books, they would be rather aggressive with their roster-building. They delivered on their promise
While I wasn't the biggest fan of every move they made (trading Roquan Smith on the grounds of him being too expensive for an inside linebacker then turning around and signing the inferior Tremaine Edmunds to a deal that's not too far off from what Smith got from the Ravens makes zero sense, being the latest team to take the cheese on Yannick Ngakoue and hand him 10+ mil to pick up 9 sacks on 1,200 pass-rushing attempts reeks of desperation at a crucial spot on the field), Poles deserves credit for attacking as many problem areas for this team as possible with his moves. The biggest, most important and quite frankly stunning move he was able to swing was landing D.J. Moore from the Panthers as part of the trade that sent the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft to Carolina. Moore is the legit #1 receiver that Justin Fields has been missing since he got to Chicago in 2021. He possesses the rare, coveted combo of speed, route-running and YAC ability that allows him to make plays in a variety of ways at different spots on the field, can line up in the slot or on the outside and his ability to put up 3 straight 1,100+ YD seasons in Carolina from 2019-21 with a QB carousel that was primarily led by Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker-who actually followed him to Chicago and is expected to serve as Fields backup-is an impressive accomplishment that deserves more love. Best of all, he's still only 26 years old and is under the contract for the next 3 seasons. If Moore can be the same player he was in Carolina with the Bears, Fields is going to be one happy camper when he drops backs to pass.
Other notable veteran pickups included T.J. Edwards-who has quietly been one of the best inside linebackers in the league over the past few seasons and his tackling and coverage prowess will be greatly appreciated considered how much Bears linebackers have struggled in these areas of late, Nate Davis-a nasty mauler of a guard who has steadily improved in each of the past few seasons whose presence provides the added bonus of allowing Cody Whitehair to shift back to his natural position of center, D'onta Foreman-whose explosiveness should make him a good complement to the power of Khalil Herbert out of the backfield and DeMarcus Walker-who carries just much as risk as he does upside as a pass-rusher after ripping off a career-high 7-sack season with the Titans in 2022 following a rocky start to his career that was defined by injuries and inconsistent play. While it's not the splashiest collection of names in the world, these players have an opportunity to give this team the DNA change it desperately needs and save for Edmunds, they didn't overpay for anyone on a long-term basis-which gives them the flexibility to add more pieces in the future.
After their bold move down the board, Poles opened himself to become a permanent part of draft lore and subsequently put the players he selected under an industrial-grade microscope. While time will clearly reveal the story of this draft class, Poles did continue his trend of diligently attacking positions of need while assembling this class. 1st round pick Darnell Wright was viewed as the best right tackle prospect in this draft given his strength/athleticism combo and how well he held up against SEC competition and has made some early fans in Chicago after he came into camp in great shape after accidently adhering to the receivers offseason conditioning program. Tyrique Stevenson is a long, physical outside corner who sticks to receivers in coverage that should compete to start right away and may even be viewed as a replacement for Jaylon Johnson if they opt not to re-sign him when he hits free agency following this season. Both interior defensive lineman they picked (Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens) have eerily similar profiles and resumes: They're both explosive athletes that dominated at times in the SEC (Dexter Sr. went for Florida while Pickens went to South Carolina), but whose play was ultimately too erratic to be considered a 1st round pick. The expectation for now is that DC Alan Williams will keep rolling with Justin Jones and Andrew Billings in the starting lineup while these two get coached up, but it'll be interesting to see if/how the preseason games and remainder of training camp can change the hierarchy.
On Day 3, they nabbed Roschon Johnson-a productive downhill runner with decent ability in the passing game that did a good job of spelling workhorse Bijan Robinson at Texas who could be a dark horse to steal the starting RB job from Herbert or Foreman some point this year, downfield burner Tyler Scott-who could get a lot of opportunities in 3-4 WR sets if he clicks with Fields in practice and Noah Sewell (yes, he is the brother of Lions tackle Penai Sewell)-a sound yet not overly explosive linebacker at Oregon who should make for a nice depth in their unique system that makes use of 3 "traditional" linebackers.
There's a lot of potential for overall growth with the moves that Poles made and they've helped usher in a degree of optimism that the Bears haven't seen since 2019. Let's hope that it doesn't end up being all for naught now like it was then.
Biggest Reason for Concern: That They're Being Anointed Too Quickly
Since camp has gotten started, I've quite frankly been floored by how high people are on this Bears team. Every day there's some tidbit coming out about how Justin Fields is a completely different player, his connection with D.J. Moore is seamless and magical, the offensive line is a force to be reckoned with, etc. (I actually just read a blurb about shit the line in practice was earlier today before I started editing this but that is sincerely the first piece of negative news I've heard out of Bears camp.) To an extent, I can understand why there's so much excitement around the team. The NFC North is a pretty wide open division without a clear favorite and Fields was an exciting player last season that won people a lot of fantasy games with his electrifying rushing ability. Plus, fans of this team have been down bad since the Double Doink happened in January 2019, so any reason to get excited about watching this team right now is a welcome change of pace from the misery they've reveled over the past few years. That being said, this whole thing just feels wrong to me.
What has this team done to inspire this level of heightened optimism in August? They ripped this team down to the studs a year ago and are coming off a 3-14 campaign in which they ended the season on a 9-game losing streak for fuck's sake! Sure, they seems to have the right attitude-largely due to Fields being a confident yet completely level-headed kid who doesn't make excuses or throw his teammates under the bus after a loss and having brought in enough pieces on both sides of the ball to all but ensure they won't have the worst record in the league for a 2nd straight year. But do we really know anything about who this team really is?
The amount of pressing questions surrounding this team are plentiful. How is Eberflus as a coach? He had the defense playing with some tenacity and grit early on, but that faded in time and his game management in close games wasn't exactly great. Can the young pieces on their offensive line (Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins) repeat or build off of their pretty strong performances from a year ago and will Wright be able to make a smooth transition to the pros? Do they have enough at edge rusher, defensive tackle and corner to field a good defense in the modern NFL? Is their depth at receiver behind Moore good enough since they're bringing back Darnell Mooney-who is coming off a broken ankle, Chase Claypool, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown and Velus Jones Jr. from last year's team and the only other newcomer is a rookie with a questionable floor (Scott). And most importantly, does Fields have what it takes to be a franchise quarterback? He's been playing with one hand tied behind his back on account on of some poor offensive line play and an even weaker receiving corps over the past 2 seasons, but his frantic, downright terrible play in the 4th quarter of some winnable games last season (namely Week 9 versus the Dolphins, Week1 10 versus the Lions and Week 11 versus the Falcons) and inconsistent touch on his throws has raised some serious red flags.
Anointing a team that was god awful last year and led by largely unproven young players as a top 2023 breakout candidate is a painfully naïve thing to do, especially when the team in question is the fucking Chicago Bears.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Play of Justin Fields
As I just mentioned above, Fields has been hamstrung by the Bears roster deficiencies while also displaying some concerning tendencies that could be difficult to fix (on top of what I've mentioned above, his tendency to hold onto the ball for far too long-which was his biggest knock coming out of college-has led to some unnecessary sacks) in his first 2 pro seasons. Year #3 is often viewed as a make-or-break year for the trajectory of a young QB and luckily for Fields, this is the best situation he's had as a pro. Having Moore as a #1 WR and pivoting Mooney-who was quite good as Allen Robinson's running mate in 2020/21 before struggling as the top dog last year-over to a #2 role should make finding open receivers much easier, the offensive line appears to be in a pretty good spot with Wright and Davis coming in, Whitehair moving over to center and Sam Mustipher leaving the building for good and for the 1st time as a pro, he didn't have to learn a new system in the offseason (the fact that Luke Getsy proved last season that he built a system around him is also a huge bonus). Early word is that he's been sharp in camp and is highly motivated to win. The Bears are going need him to be the dual-threat he was pegged to be when he came out of Ohio State if they want their rebuilding efforts to trend in a positive direction or they may be just a year or two away from dipping back into the draft pool yet again.
Bottom Line:
I'll staring believing in God again before I ever believe in the Bears. Anything above 6 wins from them would be a delightful surprise.
Detroit Lions
2023 Record: 9-8 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Dan Campbell (3rd season)
Notable Additions: CB Cameron Sutton, S/CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, RB David Montgomery
Notable Departures: RB D'Andre Swift, CB Jeff Okudah, RB Jammal Williams
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Have a Chance to Be Really Good
A mere 3 seasons after Matt Patricia left their operation in ruins, the Lions are threatening to be a really good football team. It's a year later than some people expected, but it's a welcome position for a long-suffering franchise to be in nonetheless. What transpired last season was the biggest endorsement of Dan Campbell's coaching meddle to date. This team was on the brink of contending for the #1 pick at Halloween after getting off to a horrendous 1-6 start where they largely played sloppy, dumb football that cost them wins in close games (Week 1 versus the Eagles, Week 3 versus the Vikings, Week 4 versus the Seahawks)and got them blown out in others (Week 5 versus the Patriots, Week 7 versus the Cowboys). Following their Week 8 loss to the Dolphins, something changed. The team started playing smarter, tougher and more together and that naturally led to improved execution across the board. They parlayed that improved play into a pretty incredible 7-2 finish to this year that left them just shy of the playoffs in Week 18-in which they famously eliminated the Packers from contention despite having nothing play to for following a Seahawks victory over the Rams earlier in the day. I'm not the biggest believer in the power of the sentimental aspects of the game, but Campbell's bond with his players that is built on trust, belief and respect is special and its helped breed a positive culture in Detroit that couldn't be further from the toxicity that had permeated their building right before his arrival in 2021 that has unquestionably contributed to their improved play on the field.
That strong finish along with some extracirucclar factors (OC Ben Johnson-who did a sensational job last year-passing on head coaching interviews to remain with the team in 2023, the path to a division title getting clearer with Aaron Rodgers leaving Green Bay, Jared Goff coming off his best season since 2018 and remaining committed to the team with 2 years remaining on his current deal) has the team in an excellent spot to be even better this season. Given what this conference looks like right now, there's a chance this team could make a run-even with the relative youth and inexperience of many of their best players (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill). The Bengals made it all the way to the Super Bowl with a similarly young group and they didn't have a QB that had been there before under center or an offensive line that was capable of blocking. There's potential for this team to do great things. They just need to find a way to overcome the hereditary stink that is synonymous with this franchise and make it happen.
Biggest Reason for Concern: History Repeating Itself
There's certain teams in sports that are predisposed to heartbreak and/or being bad. Depending on what side of it you're on, it's either the most needless misery you'll ever experience in your life or a source of constant hilarity since sports fans are dickheads that get off on laughing at another fan's pain. The Lions affliction is a particularly awful one since they are historically the greatest losers in the NFL. Not only were they the first team to put a together a winless season in 2008, they've been around for the duration of the Super Bowl-era-which launched in 1966- and have never made it to the big game-which is something that can be said of literally no other team that's been around for this long (the only other team that have yet to make it are the Jaguars, Texans and the current iteration of the Browns, who've been playing since 1995, 2002 and 1999 respectively). Making this run of futility even more heartbreaking, they've only made 11 playoff appearances and won a single playoff game since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970. By the way, that win came in the Divisional Round over the Cowboys 32 years ago and they followed it up with a 41-10 loss to the Redskins in the NFC title game.
The weight of history is a powerful force that can not be overcome in a lot of cases. The Lions know that as well as anyone as they haven't ever truly threatened to overcome the crippling burden of their own in over the past 56 years. This team seems to have the right attitude and talent-level to do what has been unthinkable for so long. But the mind and physical gifts alone can't slay a giant and it wouldn't be at all surprising if the giant stomped all over yet another bunch of football players from the Motor City and the fans that have suffered alongside them for generations.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Defensive Play
What definitely did not contribute to the Lions post-Halloween turnaround was the play of their defense. While they did tighten up a bit over the past month and a half after getting completely embarrassed in the early stages of the season, they weren't exactly striking fear into their opponents as they still finished in the bottom 5 in scoring defense, run D and pass D and dead last in total YDS allowed.
Now, they've proven they can win shootouts and having a trash defense didn't prevent the Vikings from running away with this division a year ago. However, their ability to make a run in the playoffs will be significantly harder if their defense doesn't become at least semi-competent this year.
Following some offseason moves and the projected upward trajectories of their young players, a sizable improvement could be on the horizon. The most jarring (and necessary) changes took place in their secondary as Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and rookie Brian Branch were brought in to join forces with their returning starters at safety (Kerby Joseph, Tracy Walker). Figuring out exactly whose going where is a little bit tricky at the moment given that Gardner-Johnson and Moseley are banged up and both Gardner-Johnson and Branch could be assigned to a hybrid slot corner/safety role or traditional slot role given their versatile skill sets, but regardless of where these players end up being placed on the field, this group has a significantly better chance of morphing into a sound coverage unit than the oft-decimated platoon of sadness that was out there last year.
Elsewhere, the only other projected new starter appears to be 1st round pick Jack Campbell. While some draft pundits were flabbergasted by Campbell going so high, the University of Iowa product patrols the middle of the field with a ferocity, decisiveness and explosiveness that is reminiscent of 2000's legends like Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher and Patrick Willis-which had to endear him to the meathead that shares his last name that coaches this team. Pairing Campbell with the sound but not overly athletic Malcolm Rodriguez could be just what this inside linebacker group needs to soar.
What could end up being the real make-or-break for this mission of improving the defense is how Aidan Hutchinson and their pass-rush performs. Hutchinson ended up being the disruptor he was pegged to be after a slow start-finishing his rookie season with 9.5 sacks, 9 TFL's, 15 QB hits, 52 total tackles and 3 INT's (?!). For the sake of the entire operation, somebody else from the group of John Cominsky, Charles Harris, Josh Paschal and Romeo Okwara-who combined for just 9 sacks in 2022-is going to have emerge as a true threat to get after the quarterback and shift some attention away from Hutchinson so he can really starting cooking. He's not yet at the level where he can plow through a triple team no problem like Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald or Chris Jones and not having to take on that level of burden would be beneficial for his growth in year #2.
If DC Aaron Glenn really is the prodigy he was pegged to be while he was the DB coach under Sean Payton and Dennis Allen in New Orleans, this group will come together beautifully and exit the basement of the collective league rankings in short order.
Bottom Line:
Despite everything in my bones telling me that tragedy is going to strike for the Lions yet again, I believe that the talent of their roster, the moxie of Campbell and strong offensive mind of Johnson will power them to their 1st division title since 1993.
Green Bay Packers
2023 Record: 8-9 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (5th season)
Notable Additions: S Tarvarius Moore, S Jonathan Owens, LS Matthew Orzech
Notable Departures: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, S Adrian Amos
Biggest Reason for Excitement: All of the Bullshit with Aaron Rodgers is Over
The annual drawn-out cycle of Rodgers whining about the Packers and/or threatening to retire only to come back and play for them finally ended when they fulfilled his request to be traded to the Jets in April. As thankful as the organization is for the Super Bowl ring he helped bring them in 2010 and their status as a near-annual contender for the majority of the 15 seasons he was under center, it was time for them to part ways. Rodgers was miserable in Green Bay and he isn't playing at a high enough level anymore to help them win another title and now is the time to finally figure out what Jordan Love is made of. While attendance, their odds of winning Lombardi #5 and the number of lengthy, condescending press conference rants the Green Bay/Milwaukee press corps will be on the receiving end of may dip in the interim, they managed the departure of a future Hall of Fame QB quite well before and given their strong front office infrastructure, it wouldn't be a shock if they did it again.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Jordan Love Coming In and Faceplanting
It was viewed as a big deal when the Chiefs used a 1st round pick on Patrick Mahomes then had him sit behind Alex Smith for the entirety of his rookie season in 2017 (outside of their meaningless regular season finale in which he drew the start) before trading Smith and making him the starter in 2018. The Packers let Love sit for 3 full years before granting him that opportunity. Leave it to an iconic old school franchise and the only team without a billionaire owner to treat a quarterback selected in the 1st round in the 2020's like a 1st round quarterback that was drafted in the 1980's.
As peculiar as it is to see a QB drafted so high ride the pine for so long without injuries playing a factor, it made sense as Love was an exceptionally raw player who was viewed as somebody who could greatly benefit from watching and learning from Rodgers and Rodgers used the fuel of the Packers drafting Love as motivation to put together back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021. We likely won't see anything like this again given the current climate of the NFL where guys are thrown out there ASAP once their drafted high, so this unique case of zigging while everybody else was zagging will likely be permanently engrained in gridiron history.
Both the best and worst thing about Love sitting for 3 years is nobody knows what he is. He started 1 game on short notice in 2021 after Rodgers tested positive for COVID (and was famously outed as being unvaccinated despite saying he had been "immunized" against the virus during training camp that year) and struggled-going 19/34 for 190 YDS, a TD and an INT as the Packers lost 13-7 to the Chiefs. Putting stock in 1 game-especially given those circumstances and the fact that it was nearly 2 years ago-is a silly and useless exercise that people really shouldn't be engaging in.
What should give Packers fans some pause however is Love's profile coming out of Utah State. The two things he struggled with the most in college were accuracy (his career completion was only 61.2% and he only completed 62% or better of his passes 1 time in his 3 seasons there) and decisionmaking (he threw a whopping 17 INT's in his final year and managed 6 INT's only on 235 passing attempts in 2017). Famously, these are the two hardest things to fix in the pros and his small sample size has yet to prove that he's overcome these issues since joining in the NFL (his 2021 statline of 3 INT's and a 58.1 CMP% is particularly worrisome).
Let's just say as a hypothetical that Love's decisionmaking and accuracy both stink this year. How are they going to win games if their QB can't be trusted to make plays? Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon aren't the types of runners that would fare well against facing stacked boxes on most of their carries and while their defense is a pretty stout group with blue chip talent at all 3 levels, they likely wouldn't be good enough to overcome an offense that couldn't score and regularly put them in precarious positions by turning the ball over and failing to sustain drives. They also don't really have another viable option other than Love as the current competition for the backup job is between rookie Sean Clifford-who was considered by many to be an egregious reach in the 5th round (based on the limited tape of his that I saw, I would agree with this take) and Alex McGough-a 7th round pick of the Seahawks in 2018 whose yet to play a snap in the pros, has spent the past 2 years as the starting QB for the USFL's Birmingham Stallions and joined the team on July 19th. To put it more directly, this team isn't talented enough to overcome Love coming out and faceplanting when he finally gets the chance to play.
Grace is something Love has earned, deserves and will get from an organization that's as well-run and patient as the Packers as he enters his 1st season as an NFL starting quarterback. But if these concerns about his game manifest into something bigger and more problematic for the team, his chance to be the uncontested starter may be shorter than anticipated.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Young Receiving Corps Producing
Having a receiving corps and pair of starting tight ends that solely consists of rookies and 2nd year players is certainly a unique strategy to deploy when you're rolling out a new starting quarterback for the first time since 2008. Really about the only obvious pluses that arise from this arrangement is that Love got some reps with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson last year when he ran the 2nd team offense in practice and he won't be afforded the opportunity to ice out the young guys like Rodgers famously did in his later years.
While it's more of a coincidence than a case of familiarity winning out, Watson and Doubs are currently expected to be the top dogs. Both guys flashed in stretches last year, but not at the same time as Doubs came out of the gate hot while Watson struggled immensely with drops and running the right routes and Watson finished the season hot with 8 TD's (7 receiving, 1 rushing) and 3 100+ YD performances in the final 8 games while Doubs was relatively quiet down the stretch after returning from an ankle injury that caused him to miss 4 games from late November-mid-December. Given that Watson is more of a home run-hitter and Doubs is more of a possession-receiver, both of them could absolutely thrive simultaneously. If they can click at the same time, it could look like the pairing of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans down in Tampa.
The rookies they brought in (of which there are many) bring some different flavors to the table. The tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are pretty similar players as they're both imposing physical presences (Musgrave is 6'6, 253 lbs while Kraft is 6'5, 254 lbs) with terrific athleticism who served as short yardage YAC options/redzone specialists on run-first offenses in college who could turn into something greater if/when they're asked to do more at the next level. Jayden Reed is currently slated to start in the slot, which could be a great fit for him given the contested catch ability, shiftiness and route-running craftiness he showed at Michigan State. 5th round pick Dontayvion Wicks gives the Packers another vertical threat to pair with Watson, although his lack of a route tree and checkered history of drops may limit his reps in the earlygoing. Who knows if/how Grant DuBose will fit in since he could be on the roster bubble as a late 7th round pick, but he was one of the more productive receivers in the University of Charlotte's history, so maybe there's something there.
Getting on the same page as so many young receivers at once adds another challenge to Love's transition to the starting role. But if at least a couple of these guys pop and Love can develop a rapport with them, the Packers offense could end up surprising a lot of people.
Bottom Line:
Anything is possible with Jordan Love. They could be great. They could stink. They could be in the middle. I'm inclined to go with option B right now, but I wouldn't even consider betting on that.
Minnesota Vikings
2023 Record: 13-4 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin O'Connell (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Byron Murphy, OLB Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry
Notable Subtractions: RB Dalvin Cook, ILB Eric Kendricks, OLB Za'Darius Smith
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The NFC North Remains Wide Open
Aaron Rodgers is out of Green Bay. Nobody knows what the Bears are actually going to be. And the Lions claim on the division crown shouldn't be taken seriously until the moment they snatch it. What does this all mean? The Vikings are probably in business by default. Are they really that good? No. Will it matter? Probably not. Kirk Cousins slinging darts at 1 PM and slinging farts in primetime (especially on Monday night), Justin Jefferson setting new receiving records and Kevin O'Connell scheming up ways to get T.J. Hockenson, K.J. Osborn or volunteer luxury dog ambulance driver Jordan Addison open is a formula that could (and likely will) will yield them 10+ wins and a 2nd straight NFC North title. Hooray for the almighty black and blue division!
Biggest Reason for Concern: Their Luck Running Out After Last Season
An average person would cite the losses of guys like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Patrick Peterson and the projected upward trajectory of the Lions and Bears as reasons why the Vikings could potentially regress this season. A cripplingly superstitious, OCD-addled idiot like myself will cite patterns and luck as the primary threat to repeating their winning ways. What the Vikings did in their 13-4 campaign a year ago was the epitome of an enigma. About the only thing you could get football fans outside of Minnesota to agree on last year was that the 2022 Vikings had a horseshoe up their ass that could cover the entire length of Lake Minnetonka. Outside of the 23-7 win over the Packers and 29-13 win over the Bears that bookended their season, every single win of theirs was by 8 points or less. All 4 of their regular season losses were by 11 points or more and 2 of them were by 24 or more. Both of their overtime wins (Bills and Colts) are among the silliest wins you'll ever see in the league (watch a game highlight video or read the game log if you aren't familiar with what happened, it was art). They became the 1st team in NFL history to win 12+ games while having a negative scoring differential (-3). This is a drawn-out way of saying nearly every break or bounce that could go there way did
The season after a team overachieves doesn't always have a tendency to end well. We actually just saw a case of it last year when the Cardinals followed up their 11-6 2021 season with a 4-13 2022 campaign. In the NFL, the universe has a way of sorting things out and ensuring a team the benefited from a bunch of lucky breaks won't have it happen again in back-to-back seasons. Considering all of the players they lost from last year's team and the not exactly comparable pieces they have replacing most of them, defeating this curse could prove to be an uphill battle.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Brian Flores Changing Their Defense
What transpired with the Vikings defense in 2022 was pretty difficult to fathom. Ed Donatell has been coaching in the NFL for over 30 years, held 3 previous DC posts and served as a top lieutenant of Vic Fangio over the previous 11 seasons and yet, the coaching job he did in Minnesota was just horrendous. The group played soft and loose, seemingly no adjustments were ever made and their pass coverage when the ball wasn't heading towards Patrick Peterson was a crime against the art of playing DB. There were some problems that were beyond Donatell's control (Eric Kendricks being washed, the revolving door they had at the other outside corner spot next to Peterson, safety Camryn Bynum continuing to struggle as a starter) and the group wasn't really any worse than they were in the final 2 seasons under Mike Zimmer's control, but it was an unacceptable coaching job nonetheless and his firing was justifiable.
In a bit of a surprising move that felt highly improbable after he sued the league for discrimination a year ago, former Dolphins head coach Brian Flores landed the Vikings DC gig after spending last season as the linebackers coach on Mike Tomlin's staff in Pittsburgh. While his track record isn't spotless, what he did as the Patriots de facto DC following the departure of Matt Patricia in 2018 when the play of his group was almost solely responsible for their Super Bowl victory in a 13-3 rock fight over the Rams and the major leap his Dolphins group made from 2019 to 2020 proves his worth as a coach. If I didn't have reservations about all of the position coaches from last year's team returning, I'd easily declare him the best DC hiring of this cycle.
At the top of the agenda list for Flores will be figuring out what the hell is going on at corner now that Peterson, Chandon Sullivan and Cameron Dantzler are all gone. Change was needed after ranking 31st in the league in pass D a year ago and they're getting it with a sizable influx of new players coming in , but the personnel leaves something to be desired to say the least.
Free agent pickup Byron Murphy is an interesting player with potential that made a pretty sizable jump during his final 2 years with the Cardinals, but it remains unclear whether or not he can handle top corner responsibilities in the league. Andrew Booth Jr. is probably going to need some pep talks and a good, long hug to get the confidence to step back on the field after a nightmarish rookie campaign that was cut short by a knee injury that required surgery in late November. Joejuan Williams could carve out some playtime (if he makes the team) simply because he has at least somewhat of a preexisting knowledge of Flores' system from spending 4 years with the Patriots, but based on how he played there, that probably won't end up being much of an advantage. Akayleb Evans didn't show much of anything in his 2 starts last year. Rookie Mekhi Blackmon has a compete level and feistiness that could endear him to Flores, but his lack of ball skills, lengthy history of soft tissue injuries and smaller size (5'11, 178 lbs) could make him tough to trust in a high-leverage role. Early word out of camp is that Evans, Blackmon and Murphy will start, but who knows what could transpire between now and Week 1.
Elsewhere, there's the sticky situations of whose replacing the departed/recently injured members (Kedricks, Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, James Lynch-who tore his ACL last weekend) upfront. Smith's replacement Marcus Davenport can be a complete wrecking ball (look no further than what he did in 2019 and 2021), but he's also oft-dinged up-missing 3-5 games in 4 of his 5 NFL seasons so far and had a career-low 0.5 sacks along with just 8 QB hits, 2 TFL's and 29 total tackles in 15 games with the Saints last season. Lynch's replacement Khryis Tonga took a step forward in 2022 with the Vikings after an uneventful rookie year with the Bears and has shown some real promise as a run-stuffer, but he's still a green player with only 4 starts under his belt and it's difficult to project what he can do as a full-time player given his limited sample size. Kendricks' replacement Brian Asamoah will test the limits of the theory that modern inside linebackers are basically just another safety flying around as the 2nd year pro has measurable of 6'0, 226 lbs. Even if he was bigger, he'd be facing a potentially steep learning curve in the NFL based on how often he missed tackles in college due to his technique (he has the same problem as his fellow Oklahoma Sooner Kenneth Murray has where he wraps people up at such a high point that they either slip out of his grip or he gets stiff-armed in the process of the wrap-up) and his suspect cover skills. Lastly, comes Tomlinson's replacement Dean Lowry-who was a mainstay on the Packers defensive line over the past 7 seasons and is a pretty reliable player overall, but just isn't quite as good of a run-defender as Tomlinson is.
The final major hurdle is also the one that could be the thing that changes this defense's fate: Getting the players to buy into Flores' system. Flores has a reputation for being a bit of a hard-ass (he's from New York City and his primary coaching mentor was Bill Belichick, so he's simply following his destiny). It rubbed some of his players in Miami the wrong way and ultimately contributed to his ouster as head coach after 3 seasons. If there's a refusal to play ball with Flores, the same results from the past few seasons will likely repeat themselves. But if they can get on his wavelength and take his coaching to heart, this group should begin to improve.
Bottom Line:
While they're bound for a regression after last year's logic-defying success, their strong potential for defensive improvement and still potent offense should be enough to keep them in the playoff mix.
Predicted Standings:
1.Detroit Lions (10-7)
2.Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
3.Chicago Bears (6-11)
4.Green Bay Packers (5-12)
