2012 was a monumental season for rookie quarterbacks. The first two overall picks in the 2012 draft, Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) and Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins), made an instant impact and lead their respective teams to surprising playoff berths. Given the success of Luck, Griffin III, and Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) last season, teams that are in need of a quarterback are hoping that there is someone of their caliber in the 2013 draft. Unfortunately for these teams in need of a quarterback, there doesn't appear to be any franchise quarterbacks in this draft.
With the outstanding play of rookie quarterbacks last season, teams are going to naturally overvalue quarterbacks in this draft. These teams that are lacking a quarterback saw what the Colts, Redskins and Seahawks and want a young, incendiary quarterback to turn their struggling team around immediately. On paper at least, There is no Luck, RG3 or Wilson, but these teams with quarterback trouble are more than likely going to cross their fingers and draft a quarterback way ahead of where they should go and hope one of these middling prospects ends up blossoming into a superstar.
Take this year's top-rated prospect Geno Smith (West Virginia) for example. In most years, he probably wouldn't be on the radar as a first-round pick, but in this draft class he is being touted as a top 10 pick. Even with quarterback-needy teams such as the Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, and Buffalo Bills picking up veteran options (Matt Flynn, Carson Palmer and Kevin Kolb respectively) last week, the top 10 speculation for Smith hasn't wavered. Smith has even been seen as a potential first round pickup for the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles, who both selected quarterbacks in the first three rounds last season and neither Brandon Weeden nor Nick Foles played poorly during their rookie year. This hype on Smith doesn't really make a whole lot of sense since the teams the were most interested in him either went out and got quarterbacks last week (Raiders, Cardinals and Bills) or already have a combination of young guys with potential and serviceable veterans on the roster (Eagles and Browns.) If these five teams all pass on him, he should slide all the way to the second round, which is a far more reasonable landing spot for a player of Smith's ability. Smith has a slew of question marks surrounding his work ethic, ability to throw in weather conditions and his overall decision-making skills. Teams like the Raiders, Eagles, Browns, Cardinals, and Bills can't afford to gamble a first round pick on Smith when they have so many other needs that can be filled at the top of the draft.
This year's other top prospects are just as cloudy as Geno Smith. Matt Barkley (USC) has suspect arm strength, forces a lot of throws and is coming off a major shoulder injury. Mike Glennon (NC State) has plenty of arm strength, but also tends to force a lot of throws. E.J Manuel (Flordia State) and Ryan Nassib (Syracuse) have potential, but they are both too much of a project to take in the first round. The other guys available like Tyler Bray (Tennessee), Landry Jones (Oklahoma), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas) and Matt Scott (Arizona) don't seem like they will be drafted before the fourth or fifth round and appear to be nothing more than minimal impact guys and after these guys go it doesn't seem like there will be more than one or two other quarterbacks selected for the rest of the draft.
As much as poor teams would like to think otherwise, there does not appear to be a top-notch talent at quarterback in this year's draft class. Teams that are in need of a quarterback are going to have to realize that 2012 was a talent anomaly and there is rarely that level of talent or depth on display in a singular draft class. The NFL is notorious for having a win-now mentality, but these struggling teams are going to need to be patient instead of gambling first round picks on unproven quarterback prospects and risking staying at the bottom of the league for years to come. Time will tell clearly and I could end up being dead wrong, but 2013 has plenty of guys with second or third round talent but no one who is worthy of a first round selection.
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