NFL Preview: AFC East

After six long months, the return of football is finally on the horizon. Over the next few weeks, I'll be previewing the NFL season starting today with the AFC East and laying out some predictions for the 2013 season. The league is as open and unpredictable as ever and I can't wait to see how the season unfolds.

Buffalo Bills: 2013 very well could be another long one for the Buffalo Bills. The long-struggling Bills had another dismal season last year which ended with them doing what seems like an annual overhaul at the end of the season firing head coach Chan Gailey and releasing starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are back at square one with new coach Doug Marrone and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. Marrone is relatively unproven on the professional level and only had a decent level of success has the head coach of Syracuse for the past four years. An offensive-minded coach really doesn't seem like the right choice for a team that desperately needs help with defensive coaching. Manuel was probably the best quarterback available in this year's draft and definitely has some potential with his arm strength and running ability. The problem is that Manuel could need time to develop and in this increasingly impatient league, that could be a problem. Adding to the Bills problems is the holdout of star safety Jarius Byrd. Byrd is a top-tier safety and the Bills can not afford to have someone of his caliber sitting out on a defense that has its fair share of holes. Luckily for the Bills it's not all doom and gloom. Stevie Johnson is one of the most consistently solid and underrated receivers in the game. He's never had a great quarterback throwing him the ball and he's always good for approximately 1,000 yards a year. Johnson should be solid again and if Manuel ends up exceeding expectations, Johnson could be in for the best year of his career. The Bills also have a sparkplug of a running back in C.J. Spiller. Spiller gouged defenses last year with 6 yards a carry and showed flashes of absolute domination. It should be interesting to see how Spiller does in his first-year as the feature back, but if he's up to the task of getting the brunt of the carries, we could be looking at an absolute stud of a back. There's some signs of optimism in Buffalo, but a shaky defense, rookie quarterback without a lot of proven weapons and an inexperienced coach could lead to them being buried at the bottom of the league once again.

Miami Dolphins: When the Dolphins hit the field this year, there's going to be a lot of new faces and a lot of question marks from new and incumbent players. Saying the Dolphins made a splash in free agency would be a gross understatement. The team spent a boatload of money on high-profile free agents on both sides of the ball including wide receiver Mike Wallace, inside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, cornerback Brent Grimes and outside linebacker Phillip Wheeler. On top of these free agents, they traded up in the draft to snag coveted defensive end prospect Dion Jordan. Personally, I think they payed too much for both Wallace and Ellerbe. Wallace is a great route-runner and has elite speed, but his hands are suspect and he's never had above 1,257 yards in a season (and that was with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback.) Ellerbe is even more questionable as he gained a big contract simply by having a great playoff run last year with the Ravens and has only started a few games over the course of his career. These moves are the epitome of risk/reward with these guys having the potential, they just need to deliver consistently to be worth their big-money contracts. I'm a bit more optimistic about the rest of their pickups, especially Jordan who gets to learn from top-notch pass rusher Cameron Wake and Grimes, who was a pretty productive corner during his tenure with the Falcons.  Aside from the new pickups, the Dolphins season is going to ride on the play of quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Lamar Miller. Tannehill played decently as a rookie last year and should improve with another year in the system, but thus far he has only shown flashes of the top-notch talent he was projected to be coming out of college. Miller has just as much as pressure becoming the feature back in his second year and facing the tall order of replacing Reggie Bush, who was arguably the best running back the Dolphins had since Ricky Williams. Miller may have only had 51 touches in his rookie year, but he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and has impressed a lot of people this offseason (most notably veteran back Frank Gore of the San Fransisco 49ers, who touted that Miller is the best back to ever come out of the University of Miami.) Miller is the uncontested starter so he will get ample opportunities to be force in the backfield, but his lack of experience as a three-down back in this league makes him a bit of a question mark despite his upside and positive reviews from his peers. The Dolphins are one of the most questionable teams in the NFL, but if their new pickups and young players perform, they could contend for a playoff spot.

New England Patriots: Unless you've been living under a rock for the past five months, you know that the New England Patriots have gone under a lot of change going into this season. They lost a majority of their receiving corps (Wes Welker signed with the Broncos, Brandon Lloyd was cut, Aaron Hernandez is in prison and Deion Branch was not brought back,) star tight end Rob Gronkowski is gong to be out for at least the first six weeks of the season and the cloud of the Hernandez murder investigation has left a really negative aura around the team going into the season. A number of questions have come up around their receiving corps this season amidst their tumultuous offseason , which I find to be ridiculous. Tom Brady is one of the few quarterbacks that can throw the ball to anyone and be effective in the process, so the key losses they had won't hurt that much. The team's new crop of receivers definitely has some promise with the highly-talented Danny Amendola coming in, who could be in a line for a monstrous year as the undisputed number 1 wideout if the injury bug doesn't bite him yet again. The lone holdover from last year's group of receivers, Julian Edelman, could have a breakout season as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels loves him and he has a similar skill set as Welker, who clearly thrived during his six-year stint with the Pats. If rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Todd end up working out, their receiving corps could end up being the most productive and deep unit they've had in years. As usual, the Patriots flaws on the defensive side of the ball. While they've worked out their pass-rushing woes with Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones emerging as pretty solid players last year, their secondary still can't be trusted. Aqib Talib wasn't a bad mid-season pickup last year and is undoubtedly leaps and bounds better than their other corners, but he still gets burned quite a bit and doesn't really strike fear into opponents. They brought in Adrian Wilson from the Cardinals to replace Steve Gregory at free safety, but Wilson has lost a few steps from his elite days and probably won't be a much of an improvement at the position. I'm also not particularly high on Stevan Ridley as their top running back this season. He undeniably had a good year in 2012, but he does most of his damage against poor defenses and gets buried by good run D's (Baltimore isn't even an elite run D and they completely shut him down in both meetings they had last.) Bill Belichick also likes to mix things up at running back frequently so I can't really see Ridley repeating his success in 2012 over again. Change might be in the air and losing someone as dominant as Rob Gronkowski for an extended period of time hurts, but as long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are in New England, they are going to be a great football team and contend for a title. I'll be shocked if they don't win the AFC East yet again this year.

New York Jets: There are a few teams in the league that are as much of a mess as the New York Jets. Aside from their offensive line and secondary, this team has problems at every other position on the field. Their quarterback situation is nothing short of disastrous with Mark Sanchez coming off a laughably abysmal season and the team drafting almost surefire bust Geno Smith doesn't seem like the answer to their quarterback woes. Even if he wins the starting job, Sanchez is almost certainly on the outs after this year unless he puts up insane numbers in 2013. To be fair to Sanchez, it's not entirely his fault. He has the weakest group of receivers in the league, which gotten even weaker with pretty reliable tight end Dustin Keller leaving in free agency to go to the Dolphins. The only proven option Santonio Holmes, who missed most of last season, is also missing some time at the beginning of this year, leaving the Jets with the highly incompetent bunch of Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley and rapidly-declining Braylon Edwards anchoring the receiving corps. Whether it's Sanchez or Smith starting, this team is pretty much doomed due to the low quality of their receivers. I'm also not sold on new starting running back Chris Ivory helping out this impotent offense. Save for a couple of games here and there, Ivory didn't do much with the Saints and has an extensive injury history. Their backups, Mike Goodson (who hasn't even shown up to camp yet) and Bilal Powell aren't proven either. I feel like they're going to regret not re-signing Shonn Greene come mid-season.  Defensively, I expect them to be a bit better after their absolutely porous performance against the run last season. Sheldon Richardson is one of the more promising rookie prospects and should serve as a big improvement in the middle of the defensive line. Muhammad Wilkerson is starting to become a pretty good edge-rusher as well and Richardson's presence should up his sack total. Their front seven is a bit improved, but they still aren't that effective on the whole (mainly due to their aging and under-producing linebacking corps.) The Jets are just a team with poor quarterback play, no offensive weapons and a pretty weak defensive front 7 who are all but a lock for one of the worst records in the league.

Projected Standings for the AFC East:
1.New England Patriots (11-5)
2.Miami Dolphins (8-8)
3.Buffalo Bills (5-11)
4.New York Jets (2-14)