Saturday, August 31, 2013

NFL Preview: NFC North

Chicago Bears: Anyone who knows me personally knows how devastated I was by the Bears firing Lovie Smith after they failed to make the playoffs last season. I felt the firing was completely unjust because Smith was pretty successful during his tenure with the Bears and all 6 of their losses in 2012 were to playoff teams. They were a good, but not elite football team and finishing just shy of the playoffs (at no fault of their own mind you, the Vikings had the tiebreaker and picked up a late victory against the Packers in Week 17 to clinch the last wild card spot in the NFC) isn't reasonable grounds for firing in my opinion. My aggravation further continued when they hired CFL export Marc Trestman who hasn't coached in the NFL in almost 10 years over Bruce Arians, who has proven his offensive wizardry  consistently for the past five years or so as the offensive coordinator with the Steelers and Colts. Now that the season has started, I have calmed down a bit about the hiring of Trestman, but he still has a lot to prove. He is an alleged offensive guru and was successful in his last NFL coaching gig with the Raiders in 2003, but his time away from the NFL is still a bit troublesome. I am hopeful that his coaching skills do catch on and the Bears can finally click offensively after years of being near the bottom of the league. Aside from my uncertainty with Trestman, I like a lot of the moves the Bears made this offseason. Top free agent pickups tackle Jermon Bushrod and tight end Martellus Bennett should be integral parts in this offense this season. Bushrod gives the Bears a legitimate tackle and should help cut down the amount of times Jay Cutler gets clocked this season, while Bennett gives Cutler the legitimate red-zone threat they have lacked since Greg Olsen got traded to the Panthers in 2011. The rookies they brought in have impressed as well. Initially I was skeptical about their first two picks guard Kyle Long and inside linebacker Jon Bostic, but both have impressed mightily in the preseason. Long has brought additional stability to the previously porous offensive line and laid down some monster blocks in both pass-protection and opening up holes in the running game. Bostic has stepped in nicely to fill the monstrous shoes left by the retirement of Brian Urlacher with great lateral quickness and a number of big plays (the hit he laid down on Chargers wideout Mike Willie a couple of weeks ago was absolutely beautiful.) The new guys are going to be key if the Bears are going to reverse their fortunes and finally make the playoffs. This season is also a make or break year for Cutler, who is set to become a free agent after this season. He needs to play more consistent football if he wants to get paid and more importantly, silence his critics and lead this team to the promised land. Cutler clearly shines at times and I expect the revamped o-line to help his cause, still he needs to string together consistent strong performances to reach his full potential as a player. Even with the new focus/number of offseason moves on offense, there's no denying this is still a defensive team. The defense may be seasoned, but everyone is still productive. Charles Tilman is coming off the strongest year of his career, Tim Jennings was a ballhawk last season and should only continue to improve this season, Major Wright is one of the most underrated safeties in the league and has shown considerable improvement each year he's been in the league, Henry Melton is a forced to be reckoned with the middle of the line, Juilus Peppers is still a feared pass-rusher at 33 and Lance Briggs is the new leader on this defense now that Urlacher is gone. If Shea McCllein and Chris Conte can step their game up then this defense will be damn near flawless and just as strong as they've been in past years. The Bears have more than enough talent to become a force this season, they just need their revamped offense to deliver the goods if they want to contend with the elite teams in the league.

Detroit Lions: I don't care who you are, you have to feel for the Detroit Lions. Their 2012 campaign saw lady luck repeatedly shitting on their dreams as they finished 4-12 (10 of their 12 losses were by 10 points or less) despite finishing in the top half of the league in almost every statistical category and coming off a playoff berth in 2011. The Lions hope to have luck on their side this year and turn things around after last year's undeniably rough and disheartening season. A big reason for optimism in Detroit is the addition of running back Reggie Bush to their ranks. Bush is tailor-made for Jim Schwartz's offense with a great set of hands and excellent elusiveness in the open field. I fully expect Bush to take some of the pressure off of Calvin Johnson and make this offense more dynamic and balanced right away. No one is going to question the Lions offense talent with the addition of Bush, Johnson coming off his record-breaking year and franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions problems are pretty much exclusive on their defense. While their secondary was alright last year, they really can't be trusted. Ron Bartell and Chris Houston are both spotty at corner and unless rookie Darius Slay proves to be dynamic, this team will face the same issues defending they pass last year. They also lack a proven pass-rusher now that Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch are gone. Rookie Ziggy Ansah is about as raw as a prospect comes and I don't expect Israel Idonjie to duplicate his 7.5 sack season he had with the Bears last year. Thankfully for the Lions, they have a dangerous interior line combo in Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh so one of these guys could end up surprising as a pass-rushing threat. The Lions look to be in better shape than last year and they are just two years removed from a playoff berth, but the competition level of the NFC North and another tough schedule could prove to be too much for them to handle.

Green Bay Packers: There really isn't anything too dramatically different about the Packers in 2013.  Aaron Rodgers is still one of the most consistently dominant quarterbacks in the league, the receiving corps is incredibly deep and their defense can still make big plays and get takeaways despite giving up a lot of points. One of the few new things for the Packers is the new-found confidence in the running game. The Packers have struggled to find a solid back since Ryan Grant's last good season in 2009. Alex Green, James Starks and DuJuan Harris struggled mightily last season after veteran Cedric Benson went down early in the year, forcing them to become arguably the most one-dimensional offense in the league (and at least part of the reason the 49ers crushed them in the playoffs.) These woes seem to fixed in the form of promising rookie Eddie Lacy. After a not-so-flattering picture of Lacy looking vastly overweight hit the internet, it looked like the Packers had taken another dud running back. But Lacy managed to silence his critics almost immediately with consistently impressive performances in the preseason and throughout training camp. Unless he suddenly becomes Mark Ingram 2.0., Lacy looks like he is going to be a solid back on the professional level. As I stated earlier, the Packers are returning most of their roster and when you have a team that has achieved the success they've had in recent years, which all but guarantees continued success for this team. Even losing Pro Bowl wideout Greg Jennings to their rivals the Minnesota Vikings and cutting ties with future hall-of-fame safety Charles Woodson didn't really hurt them because of the depth and large amount of young talent they've have on this roster. There are few teams that are in as good of a position as the Packers: Their offense is dominant, their defense is stable and is capable of making big plays, they are well-coached and they have the experience to make a run for the title.

Minnesota Vikings:Adrian Peterson is a freak. That's really all that needs to be said about the 2012 Vikings season and the star running back's comeback from a torn ACL that lead to him coming just 7 yards of the single-season rushing record. The performance of Peterson carried the team all season and led to an unlikely playoff berth. I don't expect Peterson to repeat those heroics thus making the Vikings a non-factor. Don't get me wrong, I expect Peterson to do well this year, I just don't expect him to be the absolute unstoppable force he was last season. If Peterson doesn't pull the same superhuman performance as last season, the Vikings don't have the talent around them to string together a successful season. Christian Ponder is pretty much a lost cause at quarterback and his terrible arm strength makes the Vikings passing game very limited (even with a pretty good receiving corps anchored big free-agent pickup Greg Jennings and Pro Bowl tight end Kyle Rudolph in the mix.) Their defense, while not bad, is certainly not good enough to be a force and make up for their inability to pass the ball. Peterson can only do so much, they are going to have reassess their quarterback situation if Ponder continues to struggle. Despite their quarterback trouble, there is still some hope for the Vikings. They made quite the splash in the draft picking up three first-round picks in defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, cornerback Xavier Rhodes and wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson. All 3 of them have tremendous potential and although it may take some time for these guys to develop, the Vikings can take pride in the fact that they have three potential standout players in the making within their ranks. The Vikings are a team that I can't completely write off because of Adrian Peterson, but I don't expect a repeat of last year's surprise playoff run.

Projected Standings for the NFC North:
1.Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2.Chicago Bears (9-7)
3.Detroit Lions (7-9)
4.Minnesota Vikings (6-10)

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