Saturday, August 24, 2013

NFL Preview: AFC West

Denver Broncos: For a team that had such a dominant year in 2012, The Broncos have had their fair share of misfires in the past 7 months. The team is still reeling from the heartbreaking loss to the Ravens in the AFC divisional round, a game they could have easily won if it wasn't for late mistakes and ultraconservative play-calling. Fast-forward to the offseason, where the team loses top defensive playmaker Elvis Dumervil due to an error with a fax machine receiving his reworked contract past the deadline, leading to his release and eventual signing with the Baltimore Ravens. Making matters even worse, star outside linebacker Von Miller just got suspended for the first six games of the year for violating the league's substance abuse policy and veteran cornerback Champ Bailey could miss some time with a sprained foot. The Broncos defense is going to need have someone (most notably the starting outside linebacker duo consisting of up-and-comer Wesley Woodyard and newly-signed Shaun Phillips, who was pretty productive as a pass-rusher for a number of years with the Chargers that has the daunting task of replacing Miller and Dumervil) step up early in the year with their three biggest playmakers on the sidelines. Miller, Bailey and Dumervil were the heart and soul of this defense and the losses of all 3 could be monumental for this football team that had such a stifling defense last year. On top of their defensive woes, their offensive line is in disarray with center Dan Koppen and guard Justin Boren out for the year and center J.D. Walton currently on the PUP list. The whole line has been shuffled with a few guys playing out of position to fill the voids (guard/center Ryan Lija was brought out of retirement and guard John Moffit was just brought in via trade from the Seahawks to try to stop a bit of the bleeding, we'll see if it works out.)  It's not all downhill for the Broncos though. Even with all the issues they've encountered this offseason this is still a supremely talented football team. Peyton Manning proved last year that he has a lot left in the tank as he lead this team to a 13-3 record and was consistently productive week in and week out. Manning's options may have gotten even scarier with the addition of slot-receiving god Wes Welker. The Broncos were already in good shape after the emergence of Demaryius "Bay-Bay" Thomas and Eric Decker last year (who I expect to only get better this year,) now they are even scarier with Welker in the fold. There are only a few offenses were Welker's skill set could be properly utilized and the Broncos are very much one of them. This trio of wideouts (along with the tight end pair of Jacob Tamme and Joel Dressen) is going to be absolutely awful for opposing secondaries to cover simply because every single one of these guys can burn you at any given time. The Broncos certainly have some obstacles to overcome, but with the number of veterans and depth on this football team they should be fine and when Miller/Bailey return, they should be near the top of the heap for contending for a title.

Kansas City Chiefs: A year after being the single best 2-14 team of all-time, the Chiefs had arguably the best offseason in the entire league. The complete overhaul started with the addition of head coach Andy Reid. Despite an off-season with the Eagles last year, there's still no denying that Reid is one of the best coaches in the league and his experience alone should help get this team out of the league's gutter fast. The Chiefs then addressed their quarterback woes of the past couple years by acquiring Alex Smith from the 49ers. Smith may not be a flashy, future hall-of-fame player, but he's consistent and doesn't make a whole lot of mistakes. The Chiefs continued their nice offseason moves by bringing in a ton of affordable, low-key pickups to bolster their depth on both sides of the ball. Wide receiver Donnie Avery gives them a productive and legitimate number 2 receiving option, tight end Anthony Fasano is a reliable pass-catcher especially in the redzone, cornerback Sean Smith was quietly productive with the Dolphins last year and veteran Dunta Robinson may not be the shutdown corner he once was, but he still has the skills to be a great option as a nickel back. These guys are all nice complimentary pieces that will only help their largely underrated skills players including running back Jammal Charles, wide reciver Dwayne Bowe, inside linebacker Derrick Johnson, outside linebacker Justin Houston and cornerback Brandon Flowers be that much more productive this year and fit in nicely if one of them happens to go down with an injury. The Chiefs new additions paired with the talent they already have make them a team that should be able to rise from the bottom of the league last year to being a team on the cusp of a playoff berth this year.

Oakland Raiders: From a team that is much-improved  in the Chiefs to a team that has somehow got even worse in the Raiders. This is a team that is seriously looking all but completely hopeless going into the season. The few bright spots for this team last year (Carson Palmer, Desmond Bryant, Brandon Myers, Phillip Wheeler) are gone and the team is bringing in an insane amount of new starters on both sides of the ball. Admittedly, a few of the guys they brought in defensively (Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett and Charles Woodson, who clearly is content with the one Super Bowl ring he earned with the Packers by choosing to join the Raiders over the Broncos this offseason) are talented, they just have too many problems (such as a lack of a pass rush and proven run-stuffers on the defensive line) for any of these guys to really be a huge factor. This team is about as much of a mess as you can possibly get. At least fellow stinkers like the Jets and the Jaguars have a few standout talents in key positions, the Raiders most effective players are on the offensive line and kicker (Sebastian Janikowski seriously might be the best player on the roster.) Offensively they are pretty much doomed with the unproven Matt Flynn starting at quarterback (his only standout play was with the incredibly talented Packers against a Vikings team that absolutely awful,) a running back in Darren McFadden who has shown flashes of talent but can't remain healthy for the life of him and a receiving corps that is suspect at best (Top option Denarius Moore is about as inconsistent as they come and Rod Streater and Jacoby Ford aren't exactly number 1 wideout material either.) The Raiders long-suffering reign of losing since their 2002 trip to the Super Bowl doesn't look like it's going to change any time soon. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were picking 1st in next year's draft.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers may have changed coaches and philosophies this offseason, but they haven't done enough in my eyes to turn their fate around. New head coach Mike McCoy did wonders last season with the Broncos offense and clearly knows how to run a potent offense in this league, the problem is that he has absolutely none of the weapons he had in Denver in his new digs in San Diego. Phillip Rivers is rapidly declining and about as untrustworthy of a quarterback you can have in the NFL, Ryan Matthews has continually shown that he is nothing more than an average running back and aside from the aging Antonio Gates, none of the receivers can be trusted on a consistent basis (their most legitimate threat, Danario Alexander, is already knocked out for the year with a torn ACL.) Unless McCoy waves a magic wand and brings back the Rivers of yesteryear when the Chargers were a perennial playoff team, get Matthews to repeat his fluke productive season from 2011, rapidly turns around their poor offensive line play from a year ago and have either Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown or Robert Meachem (who has suddenly become terrible since signing with the Chargers last year) become a standout, consistent wideout overnight, I just can't see this offense being dangerous this season. I will say that at the very least this team has a solid defense and has some rookies with definite potential going forward. Even with Melvin Ingram sidelined for the year and Shaun Phillips departing for the Broncos, the Chargers still have a lot of guys that can get to the quarterback. Up-and-coming defensive end Kendall Reyes has looked great in preseason action and should build upon his 5.5 sack rookie campaign last year, Corey Liguet is quietly becoming one of the more dominant defensive ends in the league and the addition of veteran sack-master Dwight Freeney further solidifies them as one of the most dominant pass-rushing attacks in the league. They also benefit from having a draft class that has a lot of upside and has the chance to come in and contribute right away. D.J. Fluker is probably the biggest gamble of all the top-rated offense lineman in this year's rookie class, but he certainly has the size and the pedigree to succeed in this league, Keenan Allen could be a very good wideout if he gets has act together off-the-field and fixes his character issues and Mant'i Teo could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft with his on-field smarts and great hands to cause problems in the passing game. The Chargers aren't a complete lost cause due to a talented defense, but their highly-troubled offense makes them a team that can't be trusted to succeed at the moment.

Projected standings for the AFC West:
1.Denver Broncos (11-5)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
3.San Diego Chargers (6-10)
4.Oakland Raiders (2-14)


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