Friday, January 29, 2016

2015 NFL Recap: AFC East

With the matchup for Super Bowl 50 set and the end of football season (sadly) on the horizon, it's now time to look back at all the madness the 2015 NFL season offered up. Over the next several weeks, I'll be providing detailed recaps on how all 32 NFL teams fared in 2015 starting today with the AFC East. The format of this series will be a little bit different than in the past as I'll be proving my analysis in bullet point format to make it easier to read. I'm excited to look back on another insane NFL season and I hope all of you football fans out there have as much fun reading this as I did writing it.

 My Preseason Predictions:
1.New England Patriots (11-5)
2.Buffalo Bills (10-6)
3.Miami Dolphins (10-6)
4.New York Jets (7-9) 
Actual Standings
1.New England Patriots (12-4)
2.New York Jets (10-6)
3.Buffalo Bills (8-8)
4.Miami Dolphins (6-10)

Buffalo Bills:
Team MVP's: WR Sammy Watkins, QB Tyrod Taylor, CB Ronald Darby, CB Stephon Gilmore, RB LeSean McCoy
-Who would've thought the downfall of a Rex Ryan-coached team would be the defense? The sudden collapse of the Bills defense (19th ranked pass defense, 16th ranked rush defense, 19th overall defense) makes no sense given the fact that they lost no major components from the 2014 unit that finished 4th in the league and the same core group of players thrived with Ryan protege Mike Pettine running a similar 3-4, blitz-heavy system in 2013. The sudden ineffectiveness of their highly vaunted pass-rush that led the league in sacks for two straight years (they ranked 31st this year with a paltry 21 sacks) and their tendency to pick up stupid penalties at key moments of the game forced this unit to fall from the ranks of the elite. They deserve some slack as the players have had to learn a new defensive scheme for a third straight year, but it's hard to not be disappointed with their middling production given how much proven talent they have on both the field and the coaching staff.

-The one factor that's being largely glossed over in the criticism of the Bills defense this year was how bad their linebackers played. Inside linebacker Preston Brown substantially regressed in coverage and against the run after his impressive rookie campaign while the normally excellent Nigel Bradham had the sloppiest season of his four-year career so far. Ryan's blitz-happy defenses require strong linebacker play to be effective and he's going to need to do some serious talent evaluation to see if he can move forward with this current group patrolling the middle of the field.

-Mario Williams epitomizes a diva veteran player. His whining and unwillingness to adapt to his new role as an outside linebacker in Ryan's 3-4 scheme was hugely detrimental to this defense. With his high cap hit ($14 million) and several of his teammates taking issue with his lack of effort and selfish attitude this season, it'll be a shock to see Williams back in Buffalo in 2016.
 
-In what was largely a disappointing year for their defense, the Bills can take solace in the fact that their starting cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby, were the most lethal corner tandem in the NFL this season. Gilmore further solidified himself as one of the best young corners in the league before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 13 while Darby's excellent coverage skills, physicality and ball skills allowed him to make arguably the smoothest transition from college to the NFL of any rookie corner in recent history.

-Ryan ended up making the right choice when he named Tyrod Taylor the starting quarterback. Taylor demonstrated consistently good decision-making and legitimate playmaking ability as both a passer and rusher in his first year as a starter. The strongest testament to Taylor's impact on this offense was how much they struggled with E.J. Manuel at the helm when he missed two games with a sprained knee in October. He needs to work on his accuracy and getting rid of the ball in a more timely fashion, but Taylor showed enough this season to prove he can be a productive long-term starter for this team.

-Sammy Watkins is starting to look like the game-changing wideout he was billed to be when the Bills traded up and drafted him in the first round in 2014. With number two wide receiver Percy Harvin suffering a season-ending hip injury in Week 5 and tight end Charles Clay and Harvin's de facto replacement Robert Woods grossly underperforming, Watkins carried the Bills passing game on his back for the second half of the season, picking up five 100+ yard performances and 7 TD's in the final nine games of the year. Watkins has proven he can handle the on-and off-the field pressure that comes with being a number one wideout in the NFL and I firmly believe that he'll be one of the 10-15 best receivers in the league within the next three seasons.

-The LeSean McCoy trade-which was met with much ire from the national media after it was completed last March-worked out brilliantly for general manager Doug Whaley. Despite missing four games with hamstring and knee injuries, McCoy was every bit the explosive, three-down back he was during his time with the Eagles and he is largely responsible for the Bills finishing the year as the league's top-ranked rushing offense. With a pair of promising change-of-backs in rookie power back Karlos Williams and speedster Mike Gillislee behind him on the depth chart, The Bills could very well end up having one of the deadliest rushing attacks in the league for a very long time.

-No offensive line in the NFL is more confusing than the Bills. The left side (tackle Cordy Glenn, guard Richie Incognito) and anchor of their line (center Eric Wood) all had Pro Bowl caliber seasons while the right side (guard John Miller, tackle Sentrel Henderson) were massive liabilities in run-blocking and pass-protection. The vulnerability of an entire side of their offensive line is severely stunting the growth of this young Bills offense and if Henderson and Miller can't make noticeable progress soon, a change is going to need to be made.

Miami Dolphins:
Team MVP's: WR Jarvis Landry, S Reshad Jones, DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Olivier Vernon, C Mike Pouncey
 
-It speaks volumes for how awful of a coach Joe Philbin is when an inexperienced meathead like Dan Campbell suddenly gets thrust into the head coaching spot in the middle of the year and displays stronger leadership and game-managing skills. Retaining Philbin and his staff of similarly ungifted buffoons played a pivotal role in the Dolphins failure this season.

 -For the first time since entering the league in 2012, Ryan Tannehill did not improve upon his previous season's numbers in 2015. His deep ball accuracy was just horrendous, he regularly forced balls into double and triple coverage, and for the first time in his tenure with the Doplhins, the poor play of his offensive lineman left him looking regularly rattled in the pocket. Personally, I view 2015 as nothing but a bump in the road for a promising career for Tannehill. If he doesn't return to being one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in 2016, I'd be legitimately shocked.  

-The criticism thrown at the play of Ndamukong Suh is completely unwarranted. Sure his sack total was down from a year ago (8.5 in 2014, 6 this year), but anyone that actually watched him play a solid amount of reps would've saw that he was every bit as disruptive and dominant at the line of scrimmage as he was during his five seasons with the Lions. There's plenty of scapegoats for The Dolphins underwhelming defensive performance this season (poor secondary play, inconsistent production out of key players, terrible run defense), but Suh sure as hell isn't one of them.
 
-With the exception of Suh, none of the Dolphins high-profile offseason pickups consistently contributed.  Tight end Jordan Cameron continues to demonstrate that his excellent 2013 campaign with the Browns was a fluke, outside linebacker Spencer Paysinger was woefully ineffective every time he saw the field and Tannehill's horrific deep ball accuracy made deep threat virtuoso Kenny Stills a non-factor in the passing game. 

-The play of defensive end Oliver Vernon once Cameron Wake went down with a torn Achilles in Week 8 was simply unreal. Vernon was a menace to opposing quarterbacks picking up 8 sacks, 24 hits and 25 pressures in the nine games played after Wake went down. The Dolphins need to make re-signing this kid their top priority this offseason

-With his 110 reception, 1,157-yard season, Jarvis Landry deserves a medal for carrying this sorry-ass offense. He was the only member of the Dolphins offense that could consistently stretch the field and be counted to make a play in big situations. With his excellent route-running and yards after the catch ability (he ranked third in the league among wideouts with 547 yards), Landry has emerged as one of the best slot receivers in the league after just two seasons.

-It boggles my mind as to why the Dolphins chose to use running back Lamar Miller so sparingly this season. Miller was largely productive when he got the ball (he average 4.5 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per reception) yet only got 15 or more touches in a game eight times this season. Despite the lack of respect they showed him this season, I'd be surprised if the new Dolphins regime headed by head coach Adam Gase- one of the strongest proponents of the running game in the entire league-let him walk this offseason.

New England Patriots:
Team MVP's: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, OLB Don'ta Hightower, WR Julian Edelman, S Devin McCourty

-Despite horrid offensive line play and a slew of injuries to his top receivers, Tom Brady had another stellar season in 2015. The four-game stretch-which may or may not have been fueled by his anger with the Deflatgate situation- he put together to start off this season was the most brilliant string of games I've seen him play since the infamous 16-0 2007 campaign. He dismantled the defenses of the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars and Cowboys with such ease and precision that it made me seriously question whether he's a human or a robot sent from a distant planet to make the rest of the NFL look bad. His play tailed off a bit after the Cowboys game, but his play was still largely impressive on the whole, especially when you consider the fact that he's at the age (38) when most quarterbacks start to or have already shit the bed physically. His volume of bad throws might be increasing each year, but unless he suffers another major injury, there's no reason to believe that he doesn't have another two or three productive years in him.

-The absence of wide receiver Julian Edelman for the last seven games of the season exposed just how bad this offensive line is. Without a reliable short-yardage passing option, Brady had to hold onto the ball longer and the Patriots passing game proceeded to falter tremendously. While the abundance of injuries and subsequently lack of continuity certainly didn't help, there was not a single offensive lineman on this roster who performed at even a passable level on a week-to-to basis. A majority of the guys they have right now simply aren't good enough to be starters in the NFL (I'm looking at you Marcus Cannon, Bryan Stork and Cameron Fleming) and if Belichick can't rediscover his knack for finding quality offensive lineman that he displayed during the first decade of his tenure with the team, Brady is going to have a hellish end to his storied career.

- It's a well-documented fact that the Patriots do not value running the football. In the 16 years that Belichick has been coaching the team, they've had a mere four 1,000-yard rushers (Antonie Smith in 2001,Corey Dillon in 2004, Benjarvus Green-Ellis in 2010 and Stevan Ridley in 2012) and almost always chose to roll with a stable of below-average backs rather than one reliable, legitimate three-down starter. The overall lack of talent at the running back position caused this offense to sink when the injury bug struck in the second half of the season. The running game was weak enough before LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis went down for the season, but their performances after Blount got hurt in Week 14 against the Texans (75.3 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry in the last 3 games) were just plain pathetic.The team's offensive woes without Edelman in the lineup and distinction of being the third-worst rushing offense in the NFL might be enough to get the traditionally run-phobic Belichick to actually invest in a legitimately capable running back for the future.

-Defensive end Jabbal Sheard proved to be one of the biggest free-agent steals of 2015. Sheard's efficiency as a situational pass-rusher and run-stopper allowed the Patriots to establish the solid defensive line rotation they've been sorely lacking for the past few years. The emergence of Sheard also allowed Chandler Jones- who typically crapped out in late November/December due to his high snap count-to stay fresh throughout the season and pick up a new career-high total in sacks (12.5). Guys like Don'ta Hightower, Devin McCourty and Jamie Collins may get all the attention and accolades, but Sheard played just as vital of a part in this defense's success in 2015.

-The secondary that was loaded with question marks coming into 2015 proved to be one of the team's biggest strengths. The starting corner duo of Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan surpassed even the most optimistic Patriots fans expectations and ended up being one of the most productive corner duos in the league this season. Butler and Ryan got thrown into the fire a lot during their first years as full-time starters and while they got torched by the likes of Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Brandon Marshall, they put together a number of strong performances against top-flight receivers such as DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins and Demaryius Thomas. Even more surprising than the emergence of Butler and re-emergence of Ryan was the sudden dramatic improvement of safeties Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. No safety in the league did a better job diagnosing and stuffing the run in 2015 than Chung while Harmon was spectacular in pass coverage every time he saw the field. While it remains to be seen if these young players can deliver on a yearly basis, there was certainly a lot of encouraging signs for the future of this secondary on display throughout 2015.

New York Jets:
Team MVP's: DE Muhammad Wilkerson, WR Brandon Marshall, WR Eric Decker, DT Damon Harrison, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

-It's amazing how much of an impact head coach Todd Bowles made in his first season with the Jets.  Bowles managed to lead the same core group of players that only won four games in 2014 to a 10-win season simply by getting them to play with the edge they lacked during the final year of Rex Ryan's tumultuous tenure with the team. If they didn't narrowly miss the playoffs with their tragic Week 17 loss to the Bills, Bowles would have gotten my coach of the year vote.

-IK Enemkpali punching Geno Smith in the face and breaking his jaw during training camp was the best possible thing that could've happened to the Jets. Smith's absence gave veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick a chance to start and Fitzpatrick relished the opportunity by improbably having the best year of his 11-year career so far. Fitzpatrick looked like a whole new man under center this year, regularly making big-time clutch throws and keeping the back-breaking turnovers that have crippled him throughout his career to a minimum. Fitzpatrick won't be joining the Brady's and Manning's of the world anytime soon, but this year served as proof that he can be a viable starting quarterback in the NFL when he's given the right system and supporting cast.

-The Jets defense,which was already great under Ryan, got even better under Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers. The defensive line anchored by Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson and standout rookie Leonard Williams was borderline impenetrable, their largely underrated veteran linebacking corps (David Harris, Demario Davis, Calvin Pace) continued to deliver and their overhauled secondary, despite having some struggles with consistency in the middle of the year, rarely allowed huge plays. With a really young group of core talent in place, the Jets should have one of the most intimidating defenses in the leagues for years to come.

-Saying that the Jets got a steal when they acquired Brandon Marshall from the Bears in exchange for a 5th-round pick would be a severe understatement. The 31-year old wideout silenced all of the naysayers that said he was past his prime with an absurd 1,502 yards and career-high 14 TD's in 2015. Marshall's emergence gave the Jets their first legitimate top wideout since Al Toon and the pairing of him and high-end number two wideout Eric Decker made the Jets passing offense a complete nightmare for opposing defenses to stop. Hopefully this triumphant comeback season will be enough to get people to finally respect Marshall as one of the greatest receivers to ever play the game.

-Chris Ivory is a candidate for least impressive 1,000-yard+ rushing season in the history of the NFL. A handful of great games in the early part of the year (most notable his Week 4 and 6 performance against the Dolphins and Redskins in which he ran for 166 and 146 yards respectively) heavily padded his stats and made up for his inability to hit his rushing lanes with any form of urgency for the last two months of the season.      

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