NFL Divisional Round Picks

Last week's record: 3-1 (Correct: Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks Incorrect: Redskins)
Overall playoff record: 3-1 

Kansas City Chiefs over New England Patriots: I'm well aware that this is a very controversial pick and to be honest, it's easily the pick I'm least confident in for the entire divisional round given the Patriots' absurd playoff success over the past 15 years and my terrible record of picking against them since their last playoff loss in the 2013 AFC Championship game against the Broncos. That being said, I'm just not sold on the Patriots as a viable contender right now. They've played some of their worst football in the Bill Belichick-era over the last month and a half and even with a pair of high-impact players in Julian Edelman and Don'ta Hightower set to return from injury this week, I'm not convinced the week of rest will do much to fix their recent woes. They are still far from 100% health wise with the condition of Rob Gronkowski seemingly to only deteriorate further in the past week, their offensive line is still incredibly shaky and the whole Chandler Jones situation is cause for a concern for a team that pretty much never has to deal with internal crisis. The unusual sense of instability and question marks facing this Patriots squad makes the Chiefs the worst possible opponent for them to be facing right now. The Chiefs have been playing with their backs against the wall since mid-October (they've won 11 straight games after starting the season 1-5) and that sense of urgency makes them a really tough team to beat right now. The game-time decisions designations given to star wideout Jeremy Maclin and outside linebacker Justin Houston is certainly a big blow, but the Chiefs' strong running game and sheer amount of defensive firepower should be enough to keep them in the game regardless of whether or not Maclin and Houston are able to play. If this game somehow turns into a offensive shootout, the Patriots will be end up being victorious, but if the Chiefs talented defense buckles down and keeps Tom Brady's big play total to a minimum, they should be able to pull off a shocking road victory against the defending Super Bowl Champs.

Arizona Cardinals over Green Bay Packers: The Packers showed their first signs of life in over a month with their 35-18 victory over the Redskins last weekend. While the Packers certainly appear to be back on track after a rough finish to the season, I still don't think they'll be able to take out a Cardinals squad that is far more talented than they are on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals decimated the Packers 38-8 just three weeks ago plus they should be hungry to prove they're still serious Super Bowl contenders after getting embarrassed by the Seahawks at home in the regular season finale. Barring an epic meltdown from the Cardinals, I just don't see a way that the Packers can come with a victory here.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers: Don't get it twisted, I don't think the Carolina Panthers 15-1 season is a fluke. They've been phenomenal on both sides of the ball and proved their critics wrong at just about every possible juncture all season long. The problem is that they have the misfortune of playing the one team still alive in the NFC that matches up very well against them. The Seahawks defense has the speed,  physicality and front-seven talent to stop the Panthers rush-first attack, take their star tight end (and one consistent option in the passing) Greg Olsen out of the game and force Cam Newton to make contested, difficult throws from the pocket. If you stop the Panthers from running the ball effectively and prevent Olsen from being a factor, their odds of winning rapidly diminish. It also doesn't help that this is a much different Seahawks team than the one Panthers pulled off a spectacular late-game comeback against in Week 6. The Seahawks have overcame their early-season struggles (they are 9-2 since that loss to the Panthers with both of their losses coming against divisional opponents) by re-gaining their edge on defense and becoming a seriously formidable offense behind career-best play from quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks suddenly potent offense hit a bit of a snag last week against the Vikings in subarctic conditions, but the lack of extreme weather in this game paired with the return of running back Marshawn Lynch to the lineup after missing the past two months with an abdominal injury leads me to believe they'll get back on track this week, especially against a Panthers defense that has struggled of late (excluding their Week 14 shutout of the Falcons, they've allowed an average of 25.8 points in their last five games.) I fully expect this game to be a highly competitive battle, I just don't think the Panthers are quite capable of defeating the Seahawks at this point in time.

Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers paid a big price in their miraculous last-second victory over the Bengals last week. Wide receiver Antonio Brown sustained a concussion on the game-winning drive after taking a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit from Bengals outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder after landing awkwardly on a clean hit by Burfict in the 3rd quarter. With Brown and running back DeAngelo Williams-who also missed last week's contest with a high ankle sprain- already ruled out and Roethlisberger playing with an injury that limits his ability to throw the ball downfield, The Steelers are pretty much doomed for their divisional round contest against the Broncos. The Broncos top-ranked pass defense is hard enough for most healthy teams to throw on and with a game-breaking, elite receiver in Brown sidelined and a banged-up Roethlisberger under center, it's going to take a series of major miracles for the Steelers to pick up significant yards through the air. The absence of Williams also prevents the Steelers from being able to make for their sudden shortcomings in the passing game with a consistent rushing attack. Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman exceeded expectations a week ago against the Bengals a week ago, but the Broncos have a much more stout rushing defense than the Bengals and are bound to be prepared for the heavy dose of running The Steelers are going to be forced to do with Roethlisberger's limitations in the passing game. Unless Peyton Manning turns the ball over like crazy or the Steelers offense miraculously overachieves, the Broncos should be able to ride the strength of their defense to a victory.