Tuesday, August 2, 2016

2016 NFL Preview: NFC North

Chicago Bears:
2015 Season: 6-10 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: John Fox (2nd season)
Notable Additions: ILB Danny Trevathan, ILB Jerrell Freeman, T Bobby Massie
Notable Departures: RB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, G/C Matt Slauson

Offense:
Despite my hopes that people in NFL circles would forget how renowned he was during his 2-year stint with the Broncos when he moved to the Windy City, offensive coordinator Adam Gase left the Bears after 1 season to take on the daunting task of coaching the perpetually messy Miami Dolphins. With Gase officially out, quarterback and the fanbase's top scapegoat for every issue that arises with the team Jay Cutler gets to work with his 6th (!) offensive coordinator since coming to the Bears in 2009. The silver lining in this coordinator change is that the new playcaller is Dowell Loggains, who served as Cutler's quarterback coach last season. If Loggains makes good on his promise to keep most of Gase's system in tact, Cutler's transition to a new offensive coordinator should be smoother than usual.

Despite being the popular opinion among analysts and fans alike, I strongly believe that the play of Cutler isn't to blame for the Bears recent offensive struggles. Cutler just had one of the best seasons of his career (3,659 YDS/21 TD/11 INT/64.4 CMP%/92.3 QBR) despite dealing with a depleted receiving corps made up mostly of kick-return specialists (Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy, Deonte Thompson) and journeyman tight ends (Zach Miller, Rob Housler) for a majority of the season, proving that he could produce solid numbers and keep the team competitive (of the 8 losses that came with him at the helm for all 4 quarters, 6 of them were by a touchdown or less) with a less-than-stellar supporting cast.

The difference between the Bears being a mediocre and good unit in 2016 is going to lie on the shoulders of starting receiving duo Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White. Jeffrey has phenomenal chemistry with Cutler and is one of the most efficient receivers in the league when he's on the field (he put up 4 100+-yard performance in the 9 games he appeared in 2015) while White-who missed the entirety of his rookie season with a shin injury-was one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2015 draft with his rare combination of size and top-end speed. If Jeffrey and White can remain healthy and play up to their potential, the Bears passing game could turn into one of the most lethal in the league and in turn, give them the potential to emerge as a surprise playoff contender.

The status of the rest of the Bears offense is really hard to gauge. Longtime running back Matt Forte left for the New York Jets in free agency, opening the door for a competition between second-year back Jeremy Langford and rookie Jordan Howard for the vacant starting running back job. Langford is the presumed starter right now because of the solid production he put up a year ago (537 YDS and 6 TD's) while Forte was sidelined with a sprained knee last season, but his terrible hands (he managed 7 drops on just 42 targets last season) and shaky pass-protection skills might make him a liability as an every-down back. Howard is a bit of wild card that fell to the 5th round due to concerns about his durability, but his status as a powerful runner that doesn't shy away from contact and solid pass-protector makes him a legitimate threat to split carries with or outright steal the starting job from Langford.

While the running back situation is far from ideal, the offensive line situation is MUCH messier. Aside from the wise choice to have Kyle Long return to his natural position of right guard after a one-year experiment at right tackle, the Bears offensive line went through a borderline nightmarish offseason along the offensive line. They bizarrely chose to release stalwart veteran guard Matt Slauson after they drafted Cody Whitehair in the 2nd round of the draft, signed two veteran lineman (guard/center Manny Ramirez and tackle Nate Chandler) that retired before training camp even started, and worst of all, the front office and coaching staff thought it was a great idea to trot out well below average left tackle Charles Leno Jr. to protect Cutler's blindside for a second straight season. It's unclear how this unit is going to mesh together once the season starts, but I don't have a lot of optimism right now that anyone besides Long is going to end up delivering. 

Defense:
Vic Fangio worked some legitimate magic with this unit a year ago. Despite having a revolving door of players at several key positions (defensive end, inside linebacker, cornerback), relying on converted 4-3 defensive ends (Willie Young, Lamarr Houston) to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme and having one of the weakest talent pools in the league to work with, the Bears defense finished 14th overall in yards against (4th against the pass, tied for 22nd against the rush) and 20th in points allowed per game. Those numbers are mostly below average, but they would've been much worse without a coordinator as sharp as Fangio running the show.


Fangio and general manager Ryan Pace continued their full defensive overhaul in their second year with the team and they ended up making a series of moves that could result in a dramatic improvement for the Bears D. The headliners of the Bears 2016 free agency class was the inside linebacker duo of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. Fangio's defenses during his stint with the 49ers were anchored by spectacular inside linebacker play from the likes of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Chris Borland. With their combination of tackling prowess, instincts against the run and pass-coverage skills tailor-made for this scheme, Trevathan and Freeman have an excellent chance to be the next inside linebackers to thrive in Fangio's system.

 Pace further shook things up by drafting edge-rusher Leonard Floyd in the 1st round and interior pass-rushing specialist Jonathan Bullard in the 3rd round and adding defensive end Akiem Hicks in free agency to bolster a front that was tied for 22nd in sacks (35) and forced a league-low 6 fumbles last season. The new blood alongside returning rising star outside linebacker Pernell McPhee and promising second-year defensive tackle Eddie Goldman makes the Bears prime candidates to be the league's most improved front-seven in the league in 2016.

The Bears defense is undeniably improved on paper going into this season, but there are still several potentially crippling flaws at certain positions. The secondary is full of holes outside of cornerback Kyle Fuller and safety Adrian Amos and the lack of veteran leadership and depth on the whole could put this unit at a serious advantage against top-caliber passing attacks. It's going to be interesting to see if the rookies (safeties Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson, cornerback Deionadre' Hall) and second-year players (cornerbacks Brice Callahan and Jacoby Glenn, safety Harold Jones-Quartey) can rise up to the uncharacteristically high burden being put on their shoulders as young players that weren't high draft picks (or in the case of Callahan, Glenn and Jones-Quartey, not drafted at all) and cause this unit to overachieve.

There's also concerns about whether or not Floyd has the size or speed to be an effective pass-rusher at the professional level. Floyd had a difficult-enough time working through the quality of competition in the SEC during his 3 years at Georgia, never registering more than 6.5 sacks in a single season. The NFL is clearly a different beast and someone with his lack of size and top-end speed could end being swallowed up the huge, freak athletes that make up this league. The Bears have contingency plans in the form of Young and Houston if Floyd fails to make an impact, but it would be a big letdown if the guy they traded up to land in the draft ended up faltering on the professional level. Even with their faults, it would be pretty surprising if this defense wasn't significantly improved from a year ago.

Bottom Line:
The softer schedule and improvements on both sides of the ball should lead to more wins in the second year of the Fox/Pace regime, but there's still not enough talent here to compete for a playoff spot in the loaded NFC.

Detroit Lions:
2015 Season: 7-9 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell (3rd season)
Notable Additions: WR Marvin Jones, WR Anquan Boldin, DE Wallace Gilberry
Notable Departures: WR Calvin Johnson (retired), CB Rashean Mathis (retired), ILB Stephen Tulloch

Offense:
The great Calvin Johnson Jr. finally decided he was sick of perennial disappointment by announcing his retirement from the league after 9 seasons in early March. This wasn't exactly a shock as Johnson has already made plenty of money (he made approximately $81 million without factoring in any of the endorsements, contract incentives and signing bonuses he received) and isn't the type of guy that was going to drag his career to the point where he became a shell of his former self.
 

While Johnson will clearly be missed, I think the Lions passing game will continue to be solid without him. The passing game found new life when Jim Bob Cooter was tapped as offensive coordinator at the midpoint of last season. Golden Tate's speed and elusiveness allowed him to thrive immediately once Cooter's offense was installed and he should be able to handle being the new top wideout without incident. Free-agent pickups Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin don't have the experience in a short pass-based system or possess Tate's perfect fit for the scheme, but they're both sure-handed vets who are polished enough to adapt to it and offer Cooter the flexibility to work more deep passes into his repertoire. Unless Matthew Stafford regresses to his pre-Cooter level of turnovers and questionable decisionmaking, the Lions should be able to have a sharp, efficient passing attack this season.

The optimism for the passing attack can not be carried over to the ground game. The offensive line arguably got worse as they're retaining 4 of the 5 starters from a year ago and brought in the tough, but incredibly raw and penalty-prone rookie Taylor Decker to play left tackle and they decided against bringing in anyone reliable to backup (whatever pieces of bones and cartilage are left of Stevan Ridley doesn't fall into that camp) second-year running back Ameer Abdullah, who was one of the most indecisive and fumble-prone backs in the league last season. An offensive line that can't open up rushing lanes paired with a feature back that can't secure the ball or figure out how to attack an opponent's defense means the Lions rushing attack is a virtual lock to be a trainwreck barring unforeseen drastic improvements.

Defense:
 The Lions defense are pretty much the poster children for mediocrity. They finished somewhere between 15th and 23rd in every major state category and fall into that special category of being too competent to be glossed over yet not dominant enough to be truly feared by opposing offenses.

Sure they have two of the most gifted young defenders in the league in defensive end Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah and cornerback Darius Slay and the return of 2014 All-Pro outside linebacker DeAndre Levy is bound to help their depleted linebacking corps, but the prospects of them being anything more than marginally better in 2016 aren't good. The rookies they brough in are too raw (defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson, safety Miles Kilebrew, defensive tackle Anthony Zietel) to make an impact right away and the veterans they acquired in free agency are almost exclusively bench players that failed to standout on good defenses (defensive end Wallace Gilberry, safety Tavon Wilson, inside linebacker Jon Bostic). There are some players scattered throughout this unit that have the potential to put together surprisingly productive campaigns (outside linebacker Tamir Whitehead, defense end Devin Taylor, cornerback Quandre Diggs), but even if they all exceed expectations, I don't think there's enough collective talent within this group to be anything more than half-decent in 2016.

Bottom Line:
Like the Bears, the Lions are a subpar team with some intriguing talent that are unfortunately stuck in a conference full of teams that are much better than them.

Green Bay Packers:
2015 Season: 10-6 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (11th season)
Notable Additions: TE Jared Cook, OLB Lerentee McCray
Notable Departures: CB Casey Hayward, WR James Jones, DT B.J. Raji (retired)
Offense:
Do you think Aaron Rodgers is excited to have Jordy Nelson back? With Nelson sidelined for the duration of 2015 with a torn ACL, all hell broke lose on this offense. The offensive line shit the bed outside of guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, Randall Cobb looked nothing like the slot receiving virtuoso that put up 1,287 yards in 2014- which forced Rodgers to heavily rely on the dream team of James Jones and Richard Rodgers in the passing game, and Eddie Lacy's weight gain finally became a serious issue as poor conditioning and stamina led him to put together the first underwhelming campaign (758 YD/3 TD) of his young career thus far. Rodgers made due with what he had by leading the Packers to a 10-win season and throwing 30+ TD's for the 5th time in his career, but the unreliability of the players around him ultimately squandered any chance they had winning the Super Bowl last season. 

The return of Nelson to the fold should be able to reverse a lot of the problems that plagued the effectiveness of the typically potent Packers offense last season. Rodgers has an unmatched chemistry with him and his route-running prowess and reliable hands makes him one of the most deadly receiving options in the league. If Nelson comes back at full speed, his presence will take the pressure off of Cobb, Davante Adams and the rest of their receiving corps, which should allow at least most of them to recover after their disappointing 2015 campaigns. Nelson is the most crucial player on this offense outside of Rodgers and his production should play a crucial role in whether or not this team emerges as serious contenders this year.
 
The return of a fit and functional Lacy should also benefit the Packers offense. Lacy has reportedly shed all of his excess weight and looked excellent at training camp thus far. Lacy is one of the most physically-imposing and naturally gifted runners in the league right now and as long as he continues to keep his weight under control, he'll be able to bounce back nicely and return the much-needed sense of balance to this Packers squad. 

Defense:
The biggest headline the Packer defense generated this offseason was that Clay Matthews is moving back to outside linebacker after an involuntary year-and-a-half stint on the inside. Given how mediocre he was at inside linebacker, this is a win-win for the Packers. They desperately need his pass-rushing prowess on the edge and the presence of a natural inside linebacker is almost guaranteed to improve their pass defense in the middle of the field.


The rest of the Packers defensive was marred by subtle changes that are unlikely to have a serious effect on the defense. They lost starting cornerback Casey Hayward to the Chargers and drafted nose tackle Kenny Clark to replace veteran B.J. Raji, who announced he was taking a "hiatus" from football in March. Hayward became completely expendable after the emergence of Damarious Randall and Quentin Rollins last season and Clark was a serious reach at the bottom of the first round, but he's unlikely to be any worse than Raji has been over the past couple of years.


 With the lack of roster turnover, the Packers are in an excellent position to be a top-tier defense yet again this season. This is a pesky group full of unheralded talents (defensive end Mike Daniels, safety Morgan Burnett, cornerback Sam Shields) that can take over a game at any time with the added bonus of having the luxury of resting easy if one of their key cogs goes down with an injury due to the unprecedented level of continuity and depth they have on all three levels of their defense. They may not have of the same caliber as the Broncos or Seahawks, but they're a talented unit that can be relied on to perform at a high level week-in and week-out.

Bottom Line: 
Barring a slew of injuries or Aaron Rodgers suddenly falling from grace, the Packers should be rock-solid once again in 2016.

Minnesota Vikings:
2015 Season: 11-5 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (3rd season)
Notable Additions: G Alex Boone, T Andre Smith, S Michael Griffin
Notable Departures: WR Mike Wallace, S Robert Blanton, T Phil Loadholt (retired)

Offense:
The Vikings made their intentions to try and bring balance to their offense in 2016 clear by addressing the two areas (offensive line and wide receiver) this offseason that destroyed their chances of having a competent passing attack in 2015. They spent a decent amount of money to bring in veteran guard Alex Boone (4 years/$26.8 mil/$10 mil guaranteed) and tackle Andre Smith (1 year/$4.5 mil/$1 mil guaranteed) and used their 1st-round pick on promising wide receiver Laquon Treadwell out of Ole Miss.

Even with the new additions to their offensive line and receiving corps, I have little faith that the Vikings passing game is going to suddenly take off this season. Boone and Smith aren't nearly good enough to turn the tide on an offensive line that was nothing short of abysmal last season, a run-happy coordinator in Norv Turner is still calling the shots on offense and even if Treadwell catches on-which I think will happen given how well he fits this system- the Vikings have no other receivers that can be consistently counted on. It's kind of a shame this is the case because I think an accurate and efficient quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater could handle a bigger workload if called upon. Unfortunately, Bridgewater will likely be relegated to hand-off duty and running for his life 15-20 times a game while he tries to complete the 4-6 yard passes Turner drew up for him.  

 In lieu of a reliable passing game, the Vikings offense should once again be carried (no pun intended) by running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson has remarkably shown no signs of aging (he just turned 31 in March) despite handling an insane workload every year and coming off of a 1,485-yard season in 2015 (the 3rd highest single-season rushing total of his career), there's no reason to believe he'll suddenly collapse in 2016.

Defense:
2015 was a breakout season for the Vikings D. Under the tutelage of defensive mastermind Mike Zimmer, outside linebacker Anthony Barr and defensive end Everson Griffen were able to build on the promise they showed in 2014 to become two of the best players at their respective positions, veteran defensive tackle Linval Joseph re-affirmed his place as one of the league's best interior lineman after a lackluster 2014 and safety Harrison Smith continued to be one of the most dominant safeties in the league.


With their starters possessing an average age of 26.5 years old, there's no reason to believe that this defense won't be able to be even better in 2016. Barr is still relatively new to the defensive side of the ball (he switched from running to outside linebacker during his junior year at UCLA) and has ample room to grow as a both a run-defender and pass-rusher, Smith and Griffen are just now starting to enter their prime and young players including inside linebacker Eric Kendricks and defensive Danielle Hunter seem like they are in line to be the next guys on this defense to make massive productivity leaps. There's no crippling weaknesses to be found anywhere on this defense and they have the winning combination of promising young talent and a solid veteran nucleus that every team strives to have, but is incredibly difficult to actually put into place. If you're looking for a dark horse to be the best defense in football going into 2016, look no further than the Minnesota Vikings.

Bottom Line:
With little roster changeover and a large of group players that are on the cusp of breaking out, the Vikings are in a prime position to win the NFC North for a second consecutive season.

Projected Standings:
1.Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
2.Green Bay Packers (10-6)
3.Chicago Bears (8-8)
4.Detroit Lions (7-9)

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