Atlanta Falcons:
2015 Record: 8-8 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Notable Additions: C Alex Mack, WR Mohamed Sanu, DE Derrick Shelby
Notable Departures: WR Roddy White, DT Paul Soliai, ILB Nate Stupar
Offense:
Falcons nation were quick to put all of the blame on Matt Ryan for their failures last season. Sure Ryan didn't play great for most of the season and after a solid couple years of denial, I now fully agree with the sentiment that he's one of the league's most overrated quarterbacks, but if you take out superstar wideout Julio Jones, the receiving options he had were just pitiful. Leonard Hankerson made a few nice plays, but was mostly his usual below average self, rookie Justin Hardy was gobsmacked by the responsibilities and complexities of playing wide receiver in the NFL after running around aimlessly during his time at East Carolina, and I am fairly confident that Roddy White died around week 5 and Kyle Shanahan just wheeled his taxidermied corpse onto the field for the rest of the season.
The Falcons solution to their lack of reliable secondary receiving options problem was signing Mohamed Sanu in free agency. Sanu was decent during his time with the Bengals as a situational receiver, but I don't think that he's consistent or polished enough to be counted on as a number 2 wideout in this league. Aside from Sanu and rookie tight end Austin Hooper, this is basically the same group of clowns (minus White, who was given a proper burial after the 2015 season concluded) that took the field in 2015. Hardy is still raw as hell and is going to need at least another to get used to the complexity of an NFL offense, Eric Weems is a fucking kick returner and journeyman Aldrick Robinson-the only other new veteran addition to this group-hasn't played a snap in a meaningful game since 2014 and has a whopping 30 career catches in 5 seasons. Ryan is a competent starter and Jones is pretty much a lock to have another excellent season if he stays healthy, but I'd be surprised if anyone in this ragtag group suddenly emerges as a legit number 2 wideout and allows this offense to recreate the potent aerial attack they displayed in 2011 and 2012.
The player that's going to truly determine the success of the Falcons offense in 2016 is running back Devonta Freeman. Freeman was unreal for the first half of last season (1,055 all-purpose YDS, 10 TD in the first 8 games of the year), and played in an integral part in the Falcons surprising 5-0 start. On the flip side, his merely average performance in the second half of the season (584 all-purpose YDS, 4 TD) played an equally important in the team's epic collapse (they lost 7 of their last 9 games) following their explosive start. 2016 should determine whether Freeman is truly one of the league's top young backs or his early-season dominance in 2015 was merely a fluke. The addition of top-notch veteran center and run-blocking machine Alex Mack to a promising young offensive line should aid Freeman's quest for redemption, but his ability to shed tacklers and explode through rushing lanes should ultimately be what determines his fate.
Defense:
The influence of Dan Quinn,who was one of the architects of the elite Seattle Seahawks defense, wasn't quite as strong as many had hoped it would be last season. Aside from a second straight season with a league-low sack total (a paltry 19 on the year), it wasn't the disaster the Mike Smith-led unit was in 2014, but the Falcons were one of the most middling defenses in the league finishing 16th in takeways (23), 14th in points allowed (21.6 per game) and 16th in total defense (347.6 YDS per game).
Unfortunately for Falcons fans, none of the moves they made in the offseason inspires much hope that they'll leave the realm of average in 2016. Free-agent pickups Derrick Shelby and Dwight Freeney are talented situational players that should help boost their low sack total, but they more than likely won't have a major impact on the quality of the defense on the whole.
Shelby and Freeney might not be the earth-shattering talents needed to take this defense to the next level, but they are at least proven, talented role players. Their top two picks in the 2016 draft were two of the biggest dice-rolls of the entire draft. Hard-hitting, box safety Keanu Neal and speedy outside linebacker Deion Jones are solid fits for Quinn's system, but their talent level and how well their respective games are going translate to the pro's are questionable at best. There's always a chance that both of these players could deify odds and make me look stupid by turning into great NFL players, but I firmly believe that Neal and Jones are the type of high-risk players that you just can't afford take when your in the middle of trying to get a long-suffering defense back on the path to relevancy.
The only player that could possibly make enough of an impact to offset all of the uncertainties and improve the Falcons defense is 2nd year outside linebacker Vic Beasley. Beasley showed some promise amidst all the rookie growing pains, picking up a team-high 4 sacks in 2015. If he can straighten out the flaws in his technique, he has the explosive first-step and freakish athleticism to be a straight-up monster edge-rusher in this league.
Bottom Line:
With a mediocre defense and general lack of offensive weapons, the 2016 Falcons should be more in line with the team that floundered through the second half of 2015 than the one that overachieved out of the gate.
Offense:
Falcons nation were quick to put all of the blame on Matt Ryan for their failures last season. Sure Ryan didn't play great for most of the season and after a solid couple years of denial, I now fully agree with the sentiment that he's one of the league's most overrated quarterbacks, but if you take out superstar wideout Julio Jones, the receiving options he had were just pitiful. Leonard Hankerson made a few nice plays, but was mostly his usual below average self, rookie Justin Hardy was gobsmacked by the responsibilities and complexities of playing wide receiver in the NFL after running around aimlessly during his time at East Carolina, and I am fairly confident that Roddy White died around week 5 and Kyle Shanahan just wheeled his taxidermied corpse onto the field for the rest of the season.
The Falcons solution to their lack of reliable secondary receiving options problem was signing Mohamed Sanu in free agency. Sanu was decent during his time with the Bengals as a situational receiver, but I don't think that he's consistent or polished enough to be counted on as a number 2 wideout in this league. Aside from Sanu and rookie tight end Austin Hooper, this is basically the same group of clowns (minus White, who was given a proper burial after the 2015 season concluded) that took the field in 2015. Hardy is still raw as hell and is going to need at least another to get used to the complexity of an NFL offense, Eric Weems is a fucking kick returner and journeyman Aldrick Robinson-the only other new veteran addition to this group-hasn't played a snap in a meaningful game since 2014 and has a whopping 30 career catches in 5 seasons. Ryan is a competent starter and Jones is pretty much a lock to have another excellent season if he stays healthy, but I'd be surprised if anyone in this ragtag group suddenly emerges as a legit number 2 wideout and allows this offense to recreate the potent aerial attack they displayed in 2011 and 2012.
The player that's going to truly determine the success of the Falcons offense in 2016 is running back Devonta Freeman. Freeman was unreal for the first half of last season (1,055 all-purpose YDS, 10 TD in the first 8 games of the year), and played in an integral part in the Falcons surprising 5-0 start. On the flip side, his merely average performance in the second half of the season (584 all-purpose YDS, 4 TD) played an equally important in the team's epic collapse (they lost 7 of their last 9 games) following their explosive start. 2016 should determine whether Freeman is truly one of the league's top young backs or his early-season dominance in 2015 was merely a fluke. The addition of top-notch veteran center and run-blocking machine Alex Mack to a promising young offensive line should aid Freeman's quest for redemption, but his ability to shed tacklers and explode through rushing lanes should ultimately be what determines his fate.
Defense:
The influence of Dan Quinn,who was one of the architects of the elite Seattle Seahawks defense, wasn't quite as strong as many had hoped it would be last season. Aside from a second straight season with a league-low sack total (a paltry 19 on the year), it wasn't the disaster the Mike Smith-led unit was in 2014, but the Falcons were one of the most middling defenses in the league finishing 16th in takeways (23), 14th in points allowed (21.6 per game) and 16th in total defense (347.6 YDS per game).
Unfortunately for Falcons fans, none of the moves they made in the offseason inspires much hope that they'll leave the realm of average in 2016. Free-agent pickups Derrick Shelby and Dwight Freeney are talented situational players that should help boost their low sack total, but they more than likely won't have a major impact on the quality of the defense on the whole.
Shelby and Freeney might not be the earth-shattering talents needed to take this defense to the next level, but they are at least proven, talented role players. Their top two picks in the 2016 draft were two of the biggest dice-rolls of the entire draft. Hard-hitting, box safety Keanu Neal and speedy outside linebacker Deion Jones are solid fits for Quinn's system, but their talent level and how well their respective games are going translate to the pro's are questionable at best. There's always a chance that both of these players could deify odds and make me look stupid by turning into great NFL players, but I firmly believe that Neal and Jones are the type of high-risk players that you just can't afford take when your in the middle of trying to get a long-suffering defense back on the path to relevancy.
The only player that could possibly make enough of an impact to offset all of the uncertainties and improve the Falcons defense is 2nd year outside linebacker Vic Beasley. Beasley showed some promise amidst all the rookie growing pains, picking up a team-high 4 sacks in 2015. If he can straighten out the flaws in his technique, he has the explosive first-step and freakish athleticism to be a straight-up monster edge-rusher in this league.
Bottom Line:
With a mediocre defense and general lack of offensive weapons, the 2016 Falcons should be more in line with the team that floundered through the second half of 2015 than the one that overachieved out of the gate.
Carolina Panthers:
2015 Record: 15-1 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (6th season)
Notable Additions: DT Paul Soliai, P Mike Scifres, C Gino Gradkowski
Notable Departures: CB Josh Norman, DE Jared Allen (retired), S Roman Harper
Offense:
Cam Newton went from 2015's biggest NFL star to the league's biggest whipping boy after a poor performance on and off-the-field in Super Bowl 50. Newton's inability to knock off the Broncos and subsequently leaving his post-game press conference early out of rage made him the subject of about 62,000 hot take pieces that questioned his character, toughness and status as an elite quarterback in the two or three weeks immediately following the Super Bowl. Newton's career has been full of adversity and mass criticism, but bouncing back from this terrible performance in the biggest game of his career and yet another round of mass character assassination is easily the most daunting task he's faced in his 6-year career thus far. He finally made it to the biggest stage and didn't deliver- now he has to make sure that the blow to his confidence and feeling of letting himself and teammates down doesn't creep into this season. The pressure on Newton's shoulders is immense heading into 2016, but I fully believe that he has the talent and poise to overcome all of the obstacles that are currently in his way.
Bolstering Newton's odds of not a having a post-Super Bowl loss hangover is the return of a healthy Kelvin Benjamin to the fold after missing all of 2015 with a torn ACL. Benjamin's return to the field is the single greatest gift Newton and this offense could've possibly received going into this season. Benjamin had an excellent rookie campaign in 2014 (73 REC/1,008 YDS/9 TD)and immediately stepped into the top reciever role that was left vacant after the great Steve Smith Sr. was unjustly released after the 2013 season. Benjamin will more than likely be a godsend after Newton and co. spent 2015 reluctantly relying on kick-returner Ted Ginn Jr. and his magnificent stone hands to be their number one wideout. With a true number one receiver in the fold to complement their reliably excellent tight end Greg Olsen, Newton has at least a solid chance of matching or exceeding his passing numbers from his MVP campaign a year ago.
The confidence that I have in Newton and Benjamin doesn't translate over to the rushing game. One of the keys to the Panthers success in 2015 was their establishment of an excellent rushing attack led by Jonathan Stewart, who remained healthy for most of the season and put up his best rushing total (989 yards) since his breakout campaign in 2009. While Stewart surprised the hell out of me and most other fans and analysts around the league, I don't trust him to replicate that level of success this season. Stewart just turned 29 (which is basically 65 in running back years) and given his absurd injury history, he's basically a ticking time bomb at this point in career.
In the event the Stewarts gets hurt or fails to perform (the former of which I believe is virtually a guarantee), the options behind him are scarce. Cameron Artis-Payne did next to nothing in the 3 starts he picked up filling in for Stewart last season and Fozzy Whitaker is nothing more than a warm body to have in case every other running back on the roster suddenly dies in the middle of a game. If the Panthers can't established a solid running game this season, their hopes of returning to the Super Bowl could be dead on arrival.
Defense:
The unpredictability of general manager Dave Gettleman struck again when he suddenly took the franchise tag off of cornerback Josh Norman in mid-April and allowed him to leave the team in free agency. Gettleman's penchant for bold moves has benefited him in the past, but if Norman's departure ends up sinking the quality of their secondary and halts the defensive dominance they displayed last season, this could end up being the unexpected, brazen personnel decision that comes back to bite him in the ass.
The biggest and most intriguing storyline heading into 2016 for this defense is whether or not their defensive front is good enough to make up for the loss of Norman. On paper, their front has more than enough talent to take the pressure off of their young, flawed secondary. Kawann Short has solidified himself as one of the league's most imposing, versatile defensive tackles over the past couple of year, Thomas Davis continues to deify logic by being one of the league's quickest and sure-tackling linebackers at age 33 and inside linebacker Luke Kuechly is one of the most reliable and consistently dominant players in the league right now. The only real question mark is at defensive end. There's no telling if Kony Ealy will be able to keep up the high level play of he displayed in the second half of the last season and the loss of a proven every-down player in Jared Allen is going to sting in a defensive end group that is rounded out by situational pass-rushers (Mario Addison), over-the-hill veterans (Charles Johnson) and raw young players (Ryan Delaire). If this front 7 can make a corner group headlined by the wildly inconsistent Bene Benwikere and veteran burnout Robert McClain look good, then they deserve to be in the conversation for best defensive front in the league.
Bottom Line:
While it's unlikely that the Panthers will be able to recapture the magic of their 2015 season, they should still be able to win the NFC South without too much difficulty.
Offense:
Cam Newton went from 2015's biggest NFL star to the league's biggest whipping boy after a poor performance on and off-the-field in Super Bowl 50. Newton's inability to knock off the Broncos and subsequently leaving his post-game press conference early out of rage made him the subject of about 62,000 hot take pieces that questioned his character, toughness and status as an elite quarterback in the two or three weeks immediately following the Super Bowl. Newton's career has been full of adversity and mass criticism, but bouncing back from this terrible performance in the biggest game of his career and yet another round of mass character assassination is easily the most daunting task he's faced in his 6-year career thus far. He finally made it to the biggest stage and didn't deliver- now he has to make sure that the blow to his confidence and feeling of letting himself and teammates down doesn't creep into this season. The pressure on Newton's shoulders is immense heading into 2016, but I fully believe that he has the talent and poise to overcome all of the obstacles that are currently in his way.
Bolstering Newton's odds of not a having a post-Super Bowl loss hangover is the return of a healthy Kelvin Benjamin to the fold after missing all of 2015 with a torn ACL. Benjamin's return to the field is the single greatest gift Newton and this offense could've possibly received going into this season. Benjamin had an excellent rookie campaign in 2014 (73 REC/1,008 YDS/9 TD)and immediately stepped into the top reciever role that was left vacant after the great Steve Smith Sr. was unjustly released after the 2013 season. Benjamin will more than likely be a godsend after Newton and co. spent 2015 reluctantly relying on kick-returner Ted Ginn Jr. and his magnificent stone hands to be their number one wideout. With a true number one receiver in the fold to complement their reliably excellent tight end Greg Olsen, Newton has at least a solid chance of matching or exceeding his passing numbers from his MVP campaign a year ago.
The confidence that I have in Newton and Benjamin doesn't translate over to the rushing game. One of the keys to the Panthers success in 2015 was their establishment of an excellent rushing attack led by Jonathan Stewart, who remained healthy for most of the season and put up his best rushing total (989 yards) since his breakout campaign in 2009. While Stewart surprised the hell out of me and most other fans and analysts around the league, I don't trust him to replicate that level of success this season. Stewart just turned 29 (which is basically 65 in running back years) and given his absurd injury history, he's basically a ticking time bomb at this point in career.
In the event the Stewarts gets hurt or fails to perform (the former of which I believe is virtually a guarantee), the options behind him are scarce. Cameron Artis-Payne did next to nothing in the 3 starts he picked up filling in for Stewart last season and Fozzy Whitaker is nothing more than a warm body to have in case every other running back on the roster suddenly dies in the middle of a game. If the Panthers can't established a solid running game this season, their hopes of returning to the Super Bowl could be dead on arrival.
Defense:
The unpredictability of general manager Dave Gettleman struck again when he suddenly took the franchise tag off of cornerback Josh Norman in mid-April and allowed him to leave the team in free agency. Gettleman's penchant for bold moves has benefited him in the past, but if Norman's departure ends up sinking the quality of their secondary and halts the defensive dominance they displayed last season, this could end up being the unexpected, brazen personnel decision that comes back to bite him in the ass.
The biggest and most intriguing storyline heading into 2016 for this defense is whether or not their defensive front is good enough to make up for the loss of Norman. On paper, their front has more than enough talent to take the pressure off of their young, flawed secondary. Kawann Short has solidified himself as one of the league's most imposing, versatile defensive tackles over the past couple of year, Thomas Davis continues to deify logic by being one of the league's quickest and sure-tackling linebackers at age 33 and inside linebacker Luke Kuechly is one of the most reliable and consistently dominant players in the league right now. The only real question mark is at defensive end. There's no telling if Kony Ealy will be able to keep up the high level play of he displayed in the second half of the last season and the loss of a proven every-down player in Jared Allen is going to sting in a defensive end group that is rounded out by situational pass-rushers (Mario Addison), over-the-hill veterans (Charles Johnson) and raw young players (Ryan Delaire). If this front 7 can make a corner group headlined by the wildly inconsistent Bene Benwikere and veteran burnout Robert McClain look good, then they deserve to be in the conversation for best defensive front in the league.
Bottom Line:
While it's unlikely that the Panthers will be able to recapture the magic of their 2015 season, they should still be able to win the NFC South without too much difficulty.
New Orleans Saints:
2015 Record: 7-9 (3rd place in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (10th season)
Notable Additions: TE Coby Fleener, S Roman Harper, DT Nick Fairley
Notable Departures: WR Marques Colston (retired), CB Brandon Browner, TE Benjamin Watson
Offense:
The Saints are without question one of the easiest offenses to predict in the NFL every single year. Drew Brees putting up video game numbers while slinging the ball 35-45 times a game to a barrage of different receivers and single-handily lead the team to almost all of their victories is basically an unofficial tradition at this point in time. At age 37, Brees isn't quite the unstoppable force of nature he was in his heyday, but he is still one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league (he thrown for over 4,500 yards in 6 straight season). With a talented young receiving combo of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead that is quietly and steadily turning into one of the most deadly tandems in the league at his disposal, Brees should be able to remain in the NFL's upper echelon of quarterback until his body gives out on him.
The biggest change the Saints offense made ahead of the 2016 season was selecting Ohio State product Michael Thomas in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft to replace Marques Colston-who announced his retirement after 10 years in the league in March-to be their new possession receiver. Thomas has reportedly been spectacular throughout the team's offseason program and many reporters/league insiders think he's going to be prominently featured in their offense this season. With his standing as a being the number two or three receiver in one of the most consistently productive passing attacks in the NFL, it's completely feasible that Thomas could end up being the breakout star of this year's receiving class.
Buried under all of the excitement over Thomas, Cooks, Snead and the rest of the Saints passing attack heading into the season is the return of running back Mark Ingram. Despite the surprisingly solid play from Tim Hightower in his absence, his presence was sorely missed down the stretch after he was put on injured reserve with a shoulder injury on December 9th. While Hightower is of a similar build and possesses a nearly identical skill set, Ingram's vision and ability to punish tacklers at will makes him the better back.
Ingram's touches strangely went down a bit last season (226 in 13 games in 2014 opposed to 166 in 12 last season), but he still averaged 4.6 yards per carry and showed great improvement as a receiver, putting up a career-high 50 receptions on 60 targets. Ingram has brought a bit of balance to a Saints offense that long lacked it following his breakout campaign in 2014 and if he can stay healthy, he could be in line for his first career 1,000-yard season in 2016.
Defense:
The Saints defense was god awful once again in 2015, surrendering a league-high 29.8 points per game and allowing an NFL record of 45 passing touchdowns over 16 games. It didn't seem to matter how many points Brees and co. put up because their defense would almost always find a way to destroy any momentum they had built.
Severing ties with abysmal starting corner Brandon Browner and drafting promising defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins in the 1st round of this year's draft represents a step in the right direction, but it will unlikely be enough to turn around the play of this horrid defense. Their awful linebacking corps somehow got even worse with the addition of inside linebacker James Laurinaitis,who is only getting more incompetent by the minute, their cornerback group outside of promising slot corner Delvin Breaux is an unmitigated disaster and their pass-rush outside of star defensive end Cameron Jordan is like Rick Santorum's 2016 presidential campaign: sad and virtually non-existent. There are reasons to be optimistic about the potential growth of their young players (Stephone Anthony, Tyeler Davison) and Jordan can still cause serious disruption at the line of scrimmage without any outside help, but there's no getting around the fact that this is still one of the most talent-deprived defensive units in the league.
Bottom Line:
Offense:
The Saints are without question one of the easiest offenses to predict in the NFL every single year. Drew Brees putting up video game numbers while slinging the ball 35-45 times a game to a barrage of different receivers and single-handily lead the team to almost all of their victories is basically an unofficial tradition at this point in time. At age 37, Brees isn't quite the unstoppable force of nature he was in his heyday, but he is still one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league (he thrown for over 4,500 yards in 6 straight season). With a talented young receiving combo of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead that is quietly and steadily turning into one of the most deadly tandems in the league at his disposal, Brees should be able to remain in the NFL's upper echelon of quarterback until his body gives out on him.
The biggest change the Saints offense made ahead of the 2016 season was selecting Ohio State product Michael Thomas in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft to replace Marques Colston-who announced his retirement after 10 years in the league in March-to be their new possession receiver. Thomas has reportedly been spectacular throughout the team's offseason program and many reporters/league insiders think he's going to be prominently featured in their offense this season. With his standing as a being the number two or three receiver in one of the most consistently productive passing attacks in the NFL, it's completely feasible that Thomas could end up being the breakout star of this year's receiving class.
Buried under all of the excitement over Thomas, Cooks, Snead and the rest of the Saints passing attack heading into the season is the return of running back Mark Ingram. Despite the surprisingly solid play from Tim Hightower in his absence, his presence was sorely missed down the stretch after he was put on injured reserve with a shoulder injury on December 9th. While Hightower is of a similar build and possesses a nearly identical skill set, Ingram's vision and ability to punish tacklers at will makes him the better back.
Ingram's touches strangely went down a bit last season (226 in 13 games in 2014 opposed to 166 in 12 last season), but he still averaged 4.6 yards per carry and showed great improvement as a receiver, putting up a career-high 50 receptions on 60 targets. Ingram has brought a bit of balance to a Saints offense that long lacked it following his breakout campaign in 2014 and if he can stay healthy, he could be in line for his first career 1,000-yard season in 2016.
Defense:
The Saints defense was god awful once again in 2015, surrendering a league-high 29.8 points per game and allowing an NFL record of 45 passing touchdowns over 16 games. It didn't seem to matter how many points Brees and co. put up because their defense would almost always find a way to destroy any momentum they had built.
Severing ties with abysmal starting corner Brandon Browner and drafting promising defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins in the 1st round of this year's draft represents a step in the right direction, but it will unlikely be enough to turn around the play of this horrid defense. Their awful linebacking corps somehow got even worse with the addition of inside linebacker James Laurinaitis,who is only getting more incompetent by the minute, their cornerback group outside of promising slot corner Delvin Breaux is an unmitigated disaster and their pass-rush outside of star defensive end Cameron Jordan is like Rick Santorum's 2016 presidential campaign: sad and virtually non-existent. There are reasons to be optimistic about the potential growth of their young players (Stephone Anthony, Tyeler Davison) and Jordan can still cause serious disruption at the line of scrimmage without any outside help, but there's no getting around the fact that this is still one of the most talent-deprived defensive units in the league.
Bottom Line:
The Saints atrocious defense will more than likely prevent them from gaining traction in a talent-deep NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015 Record: 6-10 (4th place in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (1st season)
Notable Additions: CB Brent Grimes, DE Robert Ayers, ILB Daryl Smith
Notable Departures: G Logan Mankins (retired), OLB Bruce Carter, CB Sterling Moore
Offense:
The Buccaneers made some waves this offseason by promoting offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach after (unjustly) firing Lovie Smith in early January after 2 seasons at the helm. While I have no idea if Koetter is going to be able to cut it as a head coach in the NFL, the Buccaneers were at the very least wise enough to not force starting quarterback Jameis Winston to learn a new offense for a 2nd straight year. Winston is a bright kid that could probably handle that tremendous challenge, but forcing a quarterback to learn another new offense this early in his career is cruel torture, regardless of how smart that player is.
With an offensive scheme and group of receivers he's familiar with in place, Winston is in a prime position to flourish in his sophomore NFL campaign. Winston's rookie season was filled with just about every type of adversity you could think of (injuries across the offense line and receiving corps, a horrific start to the season, a top receiver in Mike Evans who suddenly forgot how to catch a football) yet he still managed to throw for 4,042 YDS and 22 TD's. Recent history has seen a number of QB's who looked solid in their rookie years (Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles) make huge strides in their second season in the league and based on the level of polish and leadership he displayed last season with a decimated supporting cast, Winston appears to be set to join that bunch. His arm strength, throwing mechanics and ability to find holes in opposing defenses is among the best I've seen out of any young quarterback in recent memory and is exactly the type of skill set that's required to take the league by storm at this position. If Winston can fix his problems with accuracy and throwing under pressure and not revert back to his old ways off-the-field, he could very well end be the franchise quarterback this franchise has long sought after.
The play of running back Doug Martin is going to be equally integral for the play of this offense. Unlike Winston, the prospects of Martin stepping up and delivering the goods are a lot murkier. Martin's excellent 2015 campaign (1,673 all-purpose YDS and 7 TD) pretty much came out of nowhere after a pair of underwhelming, injury-riddled seasons in 2013 and 2014. Martin had turned back time and finally delivered on the promise he showed during his electric rookie campaign in 2012. Martin was consistently great throughout 2015, but you have to wonder if his success was merely a product of a player busting his ass in a contract year or if he is actually going to be able to sustain his current status as one of the league's top backs for back-to-back seasons. The answer to that question will likely haunt Buccaneers fans through the midpoint of the season and play a crucial role in deciding their place in the NFL's constantly-shifting balance of power.
The Buccaneers biggest Achilles' heel from a year ago (offensive line) is still very much an issue headed into 2016. The return of a healthy Demar Dotson at right tackle after missing most of last season with a knee injury brings a much-needed veteran presence to this young group, but the retirement of Logan Mankins-who single-handedly made their makeshift offensive line somewhat functional last season- opens up a huge void in the interior of the line (free agent pickup J.R Sweezy more than likely isn't the answer) and the decision to keep human turnstile Donovan Smith at left tackle is just puzzling. If this o-line can't coalesce, the potential growth of Winston and repeat success of Martin (and of course, the fate of their season) could be in jeopardy.
Defense:
Smith was primarily let go due to his inability to put a quality defense on the field. While Smith's Cover 2-driven scheme doesn't fit the pass-happy nature of the present-day NFL, it was two years worth of terrible free-agent signings and drafting from general manager Jason Licht and in the case of last season, unexpected down years from established stars Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David that primarily destroyed their odds of putting a quality defense onto the field.
New defensive coordinator Mike Smith is entering a slightly rosier situation than Lovie and his defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier had during their two seasons in Tampa. McCoy and David are unlikely to have back-to-back disappointing seasons and more importantly, the free-agent signings (cornerback Brent Grimes, inside linebacker Daryl Smith, defensive end Robert Ayers) Licht made this year aren't the type of backbreaking bad high-money deals that screwed over Lovie's regime (Alterraun Verner, Michael Johnson, basically every other deal Licht signed in 2014). The veteran starters (save for Ayers) are clearly being viewed as short-term solutions and while none of them are the players they were two or three years ago, they should end up being at least competent, cost-effective starters for the next season or two.
The true x-factors that could make or break this defense for Smith and his position coaches are their top two picks from this year's draft: cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and defensive end Noah Spence. Hargreaves and Spence were two of my favorite players in this year's draft and I believe they're the type of players that can come in and make a major impact right away. Hargreaves is a bit undersized for an outside corner (5"10, 204 lbs), but his coverage skills are top-notch and Spence is a powerful edge-rusher with a relentless motor that could prove to be the steal of the draft if he lives up to his enormous potential. The rebuild of this defense will be fast-tracked if Hargreaves and Spence can come in and provide the Bucs with the top corner and edge-rusher combo they've lacked since the glory days of Ronde Barber and Simeon Rice in the early to mid 2000's.
Bottom Line:
With Jameis Winston at the helm and some intriguing young defensive pieces, the Buccaneers are clearly trending upwards, but they have too many flaws on both sides of the ball to be taken seriously as a dark horse playoff contender this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Carolina Panthers (11-5)
2.New Orleans Saints (8-8)
3.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
4.Atlanta Falcons (5-11)
Offense:
The Buccaneers made some waves this offseason by promoting offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach after (unjustly) firing Lovie Smith in early January after 2 seasons at the helm. While I have no idea if Koetter is going to be able to cut it as a head coach in the NFL, the Buccaneers were at the very least wise enough to not force starting quarterback Jameis Winston to learn a new offense for a 2nd straight year. Winston is a bright kid that could probably handle that tremendous challenge, but forcing a quarterback to learn another new offense this early in his career is cruel torture, regardless of how smart that player is.
With an offensive scheme and group of receivers he's familiar with in place, Winston is in a prime position to flourish in his sophomore NFL campaign. Winston's rookie season was filled with just about every type of adversity you could think of (injuries across the offense line and receiving corps, a horrific start to the season, a top receiver in Mike Evans who suddenly forgot how to catch a football) yet he still managed to throw for 4,042 YDS and 22 TD's. Recent history has seen a number of QB's who looked solid in their rookie years (Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles) make huge strides in their second season in the league and based on the level of polish and leadership he displayed last season with a decimated supporting cast, Winston appears to be set to join that bunch. His arm strength, throwing mechanics and ability to find holes in opposing defenses is among the best I've seen out of any young quarterback in recent memory and is exactly the type of skill set that's required to take the league by storm at this position. If Winston can fix his problems with accuracy and throwing under pressure and not revert back to his old ways off-the-field, he could very well end be the franchise quarterback this franchise has long sought after.
The play of running back Doug Martin is going to be equally integral for the play of this offense. Unlike Winston, the prospects of Martin stepping up and delivering the goods are a lot murkier. Martin's excellent 2015 campaign (1,673 all-purpose YDS and 7 TD) pretty much came out of nowhere after a pair of underwhelming, injury-riddled seasons in 2013 and 2014. Martin had turned back time and finally delivered on the promise he showed during his electric rookie campaign in 2012. Martin was consistently great throughout 2015, but you have to wonder if his success was merely a product of a player busting his ass in a contract year or if he is actually going to be able to sustain his current status as one of the league's top backs for back-to-back seasons. The answer to that question will likely haunt Buccaneers fans through the midpoint of the season and play a crucial role in deciding their place in the NFL's constantly-shifting balance of power.
The Buccaneers biggest Achilles' heel from a year ago (offensive line) is still very much an issue headed into 2016. The return of a healthy Demar Dotson at right tackle after missing most of last season with a knee injury brings a much-needed veteran presence to this young group, but the retirement of Logan Mankins-who single-handedly made their makeshift offensive line somewhat functional last season- opens up a huge void in the interior of the line (free agent pickup J.R Sweezy more than likely isn't the answer) and the decision to keep human turnstile Donovan Smith at left tackle is just puzzling. If this o-line can't coalesce, the potential growth of Winston and repeat success of Martin (and of course, the fate of their season) could be in jeopardy.
Defense:
Smith was primarily let go due to his inability to put a quality defense on the field. While Smith's Cover 2-driven scheme doesn't fit the pass-happy nature of the present-day NFL, it was two years worth of terrible free-agent signings and drafting from general manager Jason Licht and in the case of last season, unexpected down years from established stars Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David that primarily destroyed their odds of putting a quality defense onto the field.
New defensive coordinator Mike Smith is entering a slightly rosier situation than Lovie and his defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier had during their two seasons in Tampa. McCoy and David are unlikely to have back-to-back disappointing seasons and more importantly, the free-agent signings (cornerback Brent Grimes, inside linebacker Daryl Smith, defensive end Robert Ayers) Licht made this year aren't the type of backbreaking bad high-money deals that screwed over Lovie's regime (Alterraun Verner, Michael Johnson, basically every other deal Licht signed in 2014). The veteran starters (save for Ayers) are clearly being viewed as short-term solutions and while none of them are the players they were two or three years ago, they should end up being at least competent, cost-effective starters for the next season or two.
The true x-factors that could make or break this defense for Smith and his position coaches are their top two picks from this year's draft: cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and defensive end Noah Spence. Hargreaves and Spence were two of my favorite players in this year's draft and I believe they're the type of players that can come in and make a major impact right away. Hargreaves is a bit undersized for an outside corner (5"10, 204 lbs), but his coverage skills are top-notch and Spence is a powerful edge-rusher with a relentless motor that could prove to be the steal of the draft if he lives up to his enormous potential. The rebuild of this defense will be fast-tracked if Hargreaves and Spence can come in and provide the Bucs with the top corner and edge-rusher combo they've lacked since the glory days of Ronde Barber and Simeon Rice in the early to mid 2000's.
Bottom Line:
With Jameis Winston at the helm and some intriguing young defensive pieces, the Buccaneers are clearly trending upwards, but they have too many flaws on both sides of the ball to be taken seriously as a dark horse playoff contender this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Carolina Panthers (11-5)
2.New Orleans Saints (8-8)
3.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
4.Atlanta Falcons (5-11)
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